12-12-08

[Mr. IWS]

::moneybag::

[timbob]

Ness Friday

Eastern Conf 20 Star GOM - Maimi Heat

Weekend Wipeout -NCAA Ark LR

Ness record recently (from another site)

Last 3 Days Picks

Date W/L Sport Pick Units
12/11/08 WIN NFL Chicago Bears 900
12/10/08 Loss NBA New Jersey Nets -880
12/10/08 Loss NCAAB Mississippi State -880
12/10/08 Loss NCAAB Tulsa -770
12/09/08 Loss NCAAB Villanova -880

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Chairman- Suns
Millionaire- Warriors
Money Maker- Spurs

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

3 Star Selection
CLEVELAND (-10 ½) over Philadelphia
12-Dec-08 04:35 PM Pacific Time
What kind of line is 10 ½ points? The Cavaliers average score this year, home and road, is 103.9 to 90.5, which is a 13.4 point margin and their average home game is a 17.3 point victory. Philadelphia is a worse than average team, so a line of 10 ½ points suggests that Cleveland will play much worse than normal in this game. The Cavaliers are without C Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but he’s worth 1 ½ points historically (based on the difference in Cleveland’s average game rating over the years when he’s been out) and my ratings favor the Cavaliers by 14 ½ points in this game even without him. Daniel Gibson is also out for the Cavaliers, but Gibson is not having a good year (40% shooting and just 31% from 3-point range), so I doubt they’ll miss him. Cleveland just played a lackluster game and still beat the 76ers by 8 points in Philadelphia on Wednesday night, so winning by 11 points at home shouldn’t be much of a problem given that Cleveland applies to a 70-26 ATS situation that plays on good teams on a long win streak. Cleveland is also 16-2 ATS this season as a favorite, so they don’t know the meaning of the word letdown, and I’ll look for the Cavs to make it 11 consecutive spread wins tonight. I’ll take Cleveland in a 3-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less and for 2-Stars at -11 ½ or -12 points.
3-Stars at -11 or less, 2-Stars at -11 1/2 or -12.

3 Star Selection
NEW JERSEY (-2) over Toronto
12-Dec-08 04:35 PM Pacific Time
Another mysterious line in this game, as the Nets have proven to be a better team than Toronto and they are at home in a good situation – yet the line has gone from New Jersey -4 points to -2 points. I was going to bet the Nets at -4 points, so I’ll take the extra gift points. The Nets are coming off an upset loss to division rival New York and now they face another divisional foe tonight. Decent teams usually play well against a division rival if they were just upset by a divisional foe in their last game and the Nets apply to a 36-4 ATS subset of a 157-87-2 ATS situation that is based on that premise. New Jersey is 11-6 straight up and 11-6 ATS with Devin Harris in the lineup (they were horrible in 3 games without him) and the Nets are 6-0 ATS following their last 6 spread losses, so they tend to play well after a bad outing. Toronto, meanwhile, just ended a 5 game losing streak with a home win against the Pacers, but the Raptors are only 7-20 ATS following their last 27 victories, including 2-6 ATS this season. Toronto is also 9-12 straight up and 8-13 ATS this season and they haven’t been as good as the Nets (with Harris). My ratings favor New Jersey by 5 points in this game and I’ll take New Jersey in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 2-Stars at -3 ½ or -4 points.
3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars at -3 1/2 or -4.

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on the Celtics and Hornets to finish UNDER the number. These teams are both among the best in the league defensively. The Hornets are allowing 92.3 points per game while the Celtics are allowing 91, including just 89.9 at home. In their most recent game here, the champs held Portland to just 78 points. Naturally, the 93-78 final stayed comfortably below the total. Including that result, the champs have seen the UNDER go 4-2 in six games against teams from the West this season. The Celtics also have really been elevating their defensive intensity when facing the league's top teams. They held the Pistons to 76 and 80 points while limiting the Magic to only 88. Looking at last season's meetings between these two teams and we find that the Hornets won a high-scoring contest at New Orleans. The rematch was in Boston a week later and it too started out high-scoring. However, thats when the Celts decided to take it personally on defense. You may even recall the play that started it all. Kevin Garnett wanted the rest of his teammates to pick up their intensity defensively. Early in the third quarter, he showed them when he dropped to his knees with his hands close to the floor while setting up to cover David West at the top of the key. Afterwards, Garnett stated: "In my mind the matchup started (Thursday) in practice. West scored 37 when we played them in New Orleans. I took that a little personally. In my mind I do a lot of things on the court I can't remember. I was just trying to be aggressive on defense and be as aggressive as I could." KG's teammates followed his lead. In fact, the Celtics held the Hornets to a mere 32 total points in the second half. Hornets coach Byron Scott said: "...they got real aggressive defensively. They did a great job." The Celtics haven't forgotten about the Hornets and I expect there to be plenty of defensive intensity right from the opening tipoff. Likewise, the Hornets know they will have to be better on that end of the floor if they want to compete with the champs on their homecourt. The UNDER is a combined 8-1-1 (5-1 and 3-0-1) when these teams have played on Fridays this season and I expect tonight's final score to also stay beneath what I feel is a generous number. *Total of the Week - Annihilat

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with ATLANTA. Having lost the first three games of their 4-game road trip, I expect I highly motivated effort from the Hawks this evening. Yes, Atlanta lost the first three games of the trip. However, a closer look shows that those games came against the three Texas teams and its difficult to win at any of those venues. Additionally, the Hawks were actually 2-1 ATS in those games, so it wasn't like they were playing poorly. For the season, the Hawks are now 8-4-1 ATS on the road. The Hawks are also a profitable 8-3 ATS this season when listed as an underdog and are now 11-5 ATS their last 16 in that role. Conversely, the Heat are 0-3 ATS the last three times that they were listed as favorites and an awful 4-16 ATS in that role. Looking back still further and we find Miami at a money-burning 22-43 ATS the 65 times that it was favored, including a 2-9 ATS mark as home favorites of three points or less. The Heat, who haven't played since 12/8, have been winning recently. Yet, they're still 1-4 ATS their last five games and 5-11 ATS their last 16. They're also an ugly 1-6 SU/ATS the past seven times that that the played with three or more day's rest in between games. While Miami's Dwayne Wade has been playing as well as anyone, I feel that the overall matchup favors the Hawks. Note that Atlanta has played very well against divisional foes. In fact, the Hawks are the only team in the Southeast with an undefeated record (4-0) against teams from within the division. Only three other teams (Boston, Detroit and Utah) have perfect records within their own divisions. Desperate to get back on track, I expect the Hawks to be the "hungrier" team tonight and for them to close out their road trip with an upset victory. *Eastern Conf. Best Bet