12-13-08

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns Hockey
Personal Favorite Montreal

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness Saturday


Larry Ness' 7* Daytime Dominator-CBB

Georgetown


Larry Ness' 8* Non-Conf G.O.M.-CBB


New Mexico


Larry Ness' 7* Underdog Shocker-CBB

Cincinnatti

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with KENTUCKY. At first glance, this seems like an awfully number to be laying against a team with a name like Indiana. However, these are not your Hoosiers of old. Indeed. Last month, the Hoosiers accepted three years of probation stemming from a telephone recruiting scandal that focused on former coach Kelvin Sampson. Worse, they've lost a ton of players. Some were kicked off the team while others opted to transfer. Meanwhile, top scorer Eric Gordon turned pro after his freshman season. The Hoosiers did win a home game vs. TCU last time out. However, prior to that they lost by 16 points vs. Gonzaga and 25 at Wake Forest. They've also already been blown out by 26 points by St. Joseph's and 38 points by Notre Dame. Considering that the Hoosiers embarrassed them 70-51 last season, I certainly don't expect the Wildcats to feel any sympathy for their guests. Note that NONE of the six players who scored for Indiana in last year's game are with the program now. The Wildcats, who have already defeated the likes of Kansas State and West Virginia, have proven they are capable of blowing teams out with four of their six victories coming by greater than 20 points. The Wildcats, 7-3-2 ATS the last dozen times they were laying points, have numerous matchup advantages and I look for them to deliver a convincing one-sided victory. *blowout GOW

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with CINCINNATI. Xavier has another strong team and comes in with an undefeated record. I backed the Musketeers once this season and they rewarded me by winning outright vs. Memphis. I haven't played against them yet but feel that this will prove to be an excellent spot to do so. Cincinnati is also off to its best (6-1) start since 2004-05, when it opened 11-0, and the Bearcats are definitely going to be fired up for their biggest rival. The Bearcats are already 5-0 here at home, outscoring opponents by a commanding 80.4 to 55.8 margin. They've been getting it done with an extremely balanced lineup. Indeed, they've currently got 20 players averaging 10 minutes a game or more and only star guard Deonta Vaughn is playing more than 30 a game. Speaking of Vaughn, as a freshman, he had 24 points when the Bearcats last hosted the Musketeers. That was exactly two years ago to the day. The Bearcats were five point underdogs, yet they won by double-digits, 67-57. That's the way it has gone in this rivalry of late though, as the home team has won five straight meetings. The Musketeers got Terrell Holloway back last game. That's a major boost for them, as Holloway is a very important part of the team and they'd struggled to score without him. However, he only played 15 mins and still can't be expected to be at 100% this afternoon. Its also important to note that the Musketeers suffered heavy losses from last year's Elite 8 team, including a trio of starters. Despite their perfect record, they've shown plenty of chinks in their armor. Note that the Musketeers come in at 4-6-2 ATS the last 12 times they were favored by four points or less. The Bearcats only loss was a neutral court setback vs. Florida State. They've followed up that loss by upsetting UNLV and then defeating a solid UAB squad here last time out. Including the upset over the Rebels, the Bearcats are now a highly profitable 14-6 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs. That includes a 3-1 SU/ATS mark the last four times that they were home underdogs of four points or less. Xavier senior C.J. Anderson had this to say: "Whatever the sport, when it’s a rivalry, you should be ready." Some things are easier said than done! I expect the Bearcats to hand the Muskeeteers their first loss and for the home team to move to 6-0 the last six games in this series. *Rivalry GOM

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with TEMPLE. The Volunteers have another talented and athletic team. They're off to a strong start and they've been scoring plenty of points. However, they've also been giving up more than 71 points per game, while allowing opponents to shoot greater than 42%. Additionally, the Vols have had a 9-day break between games, which isn't necessarily a positive. With that long layoff and with a ranked team (Marquette) on deck, I feel that they may have some trouble focusing on this afternoon's early contest vs. a Temple team which they handled with ease last season. That was at Tennessee though and that loss should provide the Owls with some added motivation here. Including an upset win at Penn State last time out, the Owls are already 2-0 ATS as underdogs this season. Looking back further and we find them at a profitable 12-4 ATS as underdogs since these teams met last November. While the Vols could easily get caught looking ahead, the Owls will surely be focused on the task at hand. That's because this is one of the bigger games at Liacouras Center in recent memory. Naturally, a win here would be huge in helping Fran Dunphy’s team build its NCAA Tournament resume. The Owls are getting healthy and got a big boost with the return of sophomore forward Lavoy Allen. Judging by his stats against Penn State (11 points, 10 rebounds, three assists and three blocks in 35 minutes) Allen seems to be just fine again. Smith's return helped the Owls upset the Nittany Lions, despite an off-day from their star senior guard Dionte Christmas. Look for Christmas to bounce back with a much better performance and for the Owls to give their guests all they can handle. *Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with ATLANTA. The Cavaliers are playing great basketball and they were even able to win big without Ilgauskas and Gibson in the lineup last night. That was at home though. Tonight, they'll be on the road and taking on an Atlanta team which is excellent at home and which is coming off a momentum-building win of their own last night. I'm expecting both Ilgauskas and Gibson to be out again tonight. However, even if either one was in the lineup, I expect the Cavs to suffer from some fatigue. Not only are they playing the second of back to back games but this is also their fourth game in the past five nights. While the Hawks are in the same situation, they're playing at home and more importantly they're also a team which doesn't rely on one player, the same way that Cleveland does. Yes, the Cavs have the much better overall record. However, a closer look shows that Atlanta's home record of 7-1 is actually better than Cleveland's 7-3 mark on the road. For all their success in recent seasons, the Cavs are still just 7-11 ATS the last 18 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. The Hawks come in with an 12-5 ATS mark the last 17 times they were underdogs. Dating back to their trio of victories against the Celtics here in the playoffs last year, they're now 10-1 their last games on this floor. After falling behind 11-0 out of the gate yesterday, the Hawks dominated Miami by an 87-62 count the rest of the way. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss at Cleveland, look for the Hawks to build momentum off that comeback and score the upset tonight. *Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

15 Dime Tennessee
5 Dime Oregon.

[Mr. IWS]

Root
NoLimit-San diego
Mill-Alabama
Chairman- New Mexico

[Mr. IWS]

dr bob's opinion.

Long Beach State (+17 ½) over SYRACUSE
Syracuse is unbeaten, but the Orange have continued their habit of letting down as a home favorite (0-3 ATS). The Orange are now 30-63-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or more following consecutive victories (0-2 ATS this season) and Long Beach is an underrated team that is 2-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season, losing by just 10 points at BYU and by only 7 at Wisconsin. Syracuse hasn’t played in 10 days (since my Best Bet winner on Cornell) and big favorites off a long layoff tend not to cover. My ratings favor Syracuse by only 16 points and I’ll lean with Long Beach State at +16 points or more.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob's

NBA
New York (+1 1/2) 2-Stars at +1 or more.

College
Georgetown (-5 1/2) 3-Stars at -6 or less, 2-Stars at -6 1/2 or -7.

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer's Mismatch Goy Is Ucla

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks plus the points over Cleveland. Last night, Atlanta snapped its losing streak with an upset win at Miami, while Cleveland won its 11th straight game, with a 16-point home win vs. Philly. Off its upset win, Atlanta falls into a 71% (48-20 ATS) momentum system of mine that plays on certain home dogs of more than 2 points off an upset win, provided they are matched up against an unrested non-division foe which is also off a win. This system has had 1 play earlier this season (Charlotte +8.5 over Boston), and we won with the Bobcats in that game. The Hawks are 47-29 ATS since 1990 as home dogs vs. non-division foes off back to back wins, and Atlanta is also 46-23 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a loss of more than 10 points (earlier this year, Cleveland won 110-96 over the Hawks). NBA Game of the Month on Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.


At 7 pm, our selection is on the Duquesne Dukes plus the points over West Virginia, as Ron Everhart's men fall into a super 80-33 ATS momentum system of mine that plays on certain home dogs of +4 or more points off a win. After 14 consecutive losing seasons, Duquesne had a winning year in 2007-08, and coach Everhart was rewarded with a contract extension thru 2013 in the offseason. And he's continued to do a terrific job, as his recruiting class (the Dukes have eight freshman on their roster) was ranked #28 in the country. Duquesne's biggest weakness is its size, and that showed in losses to Duke and Pitt -- both Top 5 teams -- but West Virginia lacks a strong inside presence, and won't be able to easily exploit the Dukes' weakness. West Virginia is also banged up right now at the guard position. Senior guard Alex Ruoff missed WVU's last game (a 68-65 loss to Davidson) with a shoulder injury and is questionable for tonight's game. Ruoff is the Mountaineers' 2nd leading scorer at 14.3 ppg. Guard Joe Mazzulla has averaged the 2nd most minutes (21 min per game) in the backcourt (Ruoff tops the team with 33 min per game), and Mazzulla also could be out tonight after suffering an injury vs. Davidson. (On Friday, WVU coach Bob Huggins did say that he expects both players to miss tonight's game.) WVU also doesn't rebound off close losses, as WVU is 1-19 ATS its last 20 regular season games off a loss of 6 points or less when matched up against a foe off a win. Look for Duquesne's high-scoring guard, Aaron Jackson (36 points on 15-for-17 shooting in the Dukes' last game) to take advantage of WVU's lack of experience on the perimeter, and lead Duquesne to an upset win. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

MILWAUKEE

Game: Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game Time: 12/13/2008 8:35:00 PM Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks Reason: I'm laying the points with MILWAUKEE. The situation favors the home team in this one. The Bucks haven't played since Wednesday while the Pacers played last night. Note that Indiana is a money-burning 5-10-1 ATS the last 16 times that it played the second of back to back games and an ugly 66-90-6 ATS its last 162 in that situation. Last night's game was particularly gruelling, too. That's because the Pacers were behind by double-digits in the second half but battled all the way back to take the lead only to come up just short. They even had the ball in the final 10 seconds, down by just two points. That type of loss can be very difficult to bounce back from, particularly when playing the very next day. The Bucks have struggled on the road but they've been much better at home, where they boast a winning record and have gone 6-3 ATS. They're already 4-1 SU/ATS as favorites and 3-0 SU/ATS as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Overall, they're an impressive 6-1 SU/ATS against teams with a losing record. Look for the Bucks to be the fresher team as they continue their strong homecourt play by earning the win and cover. *6 Personal Favorite


OVER wizards/76ers

Game: Washington Wizards vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game Time: 12/13/2008 7:35:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on Philadelphia and Washington to finish OVER the total. These teams both just faced an elite defense in their last game. The 76ers come off back to back games vs. Cleveland, currently the #1 defense in the NBA, and were held to a mere 72 last night. Meanwhile, Washington hosted Boston, currently the #2 defense, on Thursday and managed only 88 points. Note that the Wizards, who have seen the OVER go 5-2-1 after allowing 105 or more points, did give up a whopping 122 points themselves in that game. Anyway, my point about both teams having faced top defenses is that they should be much happier to see a lesser defense today. The 76ers don't always run as much as they'd like to but they would definitely prefer an up-tempo game. That typically suits the Wizards just fine, too. Indeed, the Wizards have seen their road games average 205.3 points this season. As mentioned, the 76ers played last night. Different teams tend to react differently when playing the second of back to back games and its important to know each team's tendencies in that situation. Philadelphia has been a team which has shown a tendency to play games which are higher-scoring than expected, when on the backend of a back to back spot. In fact, the OVER is 4-1 the last five times that the 76ers played the second of back to back games and a profitable 14-6 the last 20 times that they were in that situation. Looking at the history between these teams and we find the OVER at 4-1 the last five series meetings and 14-5 the last 19. I look for a fast-paced game and for those numbers to improve with the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. * Blue Chip

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

MONTREAL

Game: Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens Game Time: 12/13/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Montreal Canadiens Reason: I'm laying the price with MONTREAL. The Capitals defeated the Canadiens at Washington a couple of weeks ago. Tonight, the situation sets up nicely for the Canadiens to earn some payback. For starters, this time it's the Canadiens who play on home ice and who get the advantage of the last line change. That's significant as the Capitals aren't nearly as good on the road as they are at home. In fact, last night's victory brought them to 12-1-1 at home for the season, the best mark in the East. However, when playing on the road, they've managed only five victories in 16 games. Looking at the series history and we find that the Canadiens have won four of the last five as a host in this series, most recently a 4-0 victory here last January. Looking back further and we find Montreal at 6-2 the last eight series meetings here and 9-4-1 the last 14. In addition to having the venue in their favor, the Canadiens also have a big scheduling advantage. The Capitals played well in last night's win over Ottawa. However, they've been awful when playing the second of back to back games. In fact, we find them at an ugly 1-7 the last eight times that they played the second of back to back games, including an 0-3 mark in that situation over the past month. The Canadiens had yesterday off, after getting upset 3-1 by Tampa on Thursday. They're a profitable 32-21 (+6.8) the past few seasons when coming off a loss by two goals or more, including 3-1 their past four. They're also 5-1 the past six times they were coming off a game in which they scored one goal or less in their previous game. Look for them to bounce back with a big effort and avenge the earlier loss. *Personal Favorite

CINCINNATI

Game: Xavier vs. Cincinnati Game Time: 12/13/2008 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Cincinnati Reason: I'm taking the points with CINCINNATI. Xavier has another strong team and comes in with an undefeated record. I backed the Musketeers once this season and they rewarded me by winning outright vs. Memphis. I haven't played against them yet but feel that this will prove to be an excellent spot to do so. Cincinnati is also off to its best (6-1) start since 2004-05, when it opened 11-0, and the Bearcats are definitely going to be fired up for their biggest rival. The Bearcats are already 5-0 here at home, outscoring opponents by a commanding 80.4 to 55.8 margin. They've been getting it done with an extremely balanced lineup. Indeed, they've currently got 20 players averaging 10 minutes a game or more and only star guard Deonta Vaughn is playing more than 30 a game. Speaking of Vaughn, as a freshman, he had 24 points when the Bearcats last hosted the Musketeers. That was exactly two years ago to the day. The Bearcats were five point underdogs, yet they won by double-digits, 67-57. That's the way it has gone in this rivalry of late though, as the home team has won five straight meetings. The Musketeers got Terrell Holloway back last game. That's a major boost for them, as Holloway is a very important part of the team and they'd struggled to score without him. However, he only played 15 mins and still can't be expected to be at 100% this afternoon. Its also important to note that the Musketeers suffered heavy losses from last year's Elite 8 team, including a trio of starters. Despite their perfect record, they've shown plenty of chinks in their armor. Note that the Musketeers come in at 4-6-2 ATS the last 12 times they were favored by four points or less. The Bearcats only loss was a neutral court setback vs. Florida State. They've followed up that loss by upsetting UNLV and then defeating a solid UAB squad here last time out. Including the upset over the Rebels, the Bearcats are now a highly profitable 14-6 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs. That includes a 3-1 SU/ATS mark the last four times that they were home underdogs of four points or less. Xavier senior C.J. Anderson had this to say: "Whatever the sport, when it??s a rivalry, you should be ready." Some things are easier said than done! I expect the Bearcats to hand the Muskeeteers their first loss and for the home team to move to 6-0 the last six games in this series. *Rivalry GOM