12-15-08

[Mr. IWS]

asa goy
7 phily under

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence's Playbook

Monday, December 15th
PHILADELPHIA over Cleveland by 10

Now that was the Eagles we’ve all grown to admire. A convincing 20-14
victory at New York against the Giants as 7-point dogs puts them back in
the playoff picture. And their 13-2 ATS mark in games after taking on the
G-Men is impressive. What we don’t like, though, is the severe role change
in this contest. That and the fact that Cleveland coach Romeo ‘Lame Duck’
Crennel is 8-0 ATS in games off a loss of 17 or more points. He’s also 3-
0-1 ATS as a dog of more than 7 points in NFC frays. With Philly off the
NYG revenge win and having season-ending division revenge games up
next with Washington and Dallas, the points become the play here tonight.
Make it a Brownie Monday.

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence's Playbook

Monday, December 15

NBA
Charlotte over ATLANTA by 7
The Bobcats are back on the road – right where we like ‘em – in a neat
revenge situation here tonight. Charlotte lost on this fl oor, 88-83, earlier
this year as 8-point dogs and they now stand 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS all-time
against the Hawks. Catching Atlanta off a revenger here Saturday night
against Cleveland and having a revenger on deck with Boston makes this
game the perfect revenge sandwich setup. Hawks’ pitiful 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS
mark in games after the Cavaliers clinches it.

[Mr. IWS]

EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
TITLE: 10* NFL Total of the Month - 83% run!
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 10* Under the total, Cleveland vs. Philadelphia, 8:30 PM EST

Cleveland’s offensive struggles are the main reason we are taking the UNDER on this game. With Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn both sidelined with injuries, the Browns will start Ken Dorsey at quarterback for the second straight week. Last week in a 9-28 loss to the Titans, Dorsey was a mere 22/43 for 150 yards and 1 interception. We don’t see his production improving this week vs. a stingy Eagles defense. Even before Dorsey was handed the starting job, the Browns were struggling to score points. They have totaled just 21 points in the past three weeks (just 7 points per game). Their total yardage numbers the last three games are 240, 192 and 178. The Cleveland offense has been horrendous and now they face off against the 4th ranked defense in the NFL. The Eagles stop unit has completely shutdown two of the best offenses in the NFL the last two weeks. They held Arizona to just 20 points and 260 total yards two weeks ago. Last Sunday they topped the Giants 20-14. New York put together only 211 yards of total offense against this red hot defense. Not only that, their 14 points were even a bit deceiving as they scored one TD on a 71-yard blocked field goal return and the other TD came with just 20 seconds remaining in the game.
Back to the Browns and their defense which has actually been playing fairly well. Before giving up 28 points last week to the Titans, the Browns held Houston to just 16 points and Indianapolis to just 10 in back to back weeks. Cleveland is actually 3rd in the entire NFL in defensive efficiency allowing just one point for every 17 yards gained by their opponent. They have allowed 17 points or less in six of their last ten games. This team is decent on defense and really bad on offense. That combination leads to low scoring games.
The Eagles were in shambles after their 29 point loss to the Ravens, but as we mentioned, they bounced back nicely with big wins against the Cardinals and the Giants the last two weeks. Philly has been riding on the back of Brian Westbrook for the last two weeks as he has totaled 240 yards rushing. Eagle coach Andy Reid has really decided to lean on the run down the stretch and that has amounted to 81 rushes in the last two games. Don’t expect him to change his philosophy which has led to two straight wins. With the Browns ability to stop the pass (Cleveland has allowed an average of 185 yards passing the past three weeks, allowing just 3 touchdowns and forcing 6 interceptions), we will get an over abundance of the Philly ground game here.
Philly doesn’t have the strongest receiving corps to begin with, and they will have to use Westbrook a lot to consistently move the ball in this game. Running the ball will speed the game up and keep the score low. Last week, the Titans ran the ball 43 times for 235 yards in their 28-9 win. Both teams are a combined 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games in December and we see that trend continuing on Monday night. Look for Philly to grab a lead and just sit on it using their running game. Go with the UNDER.
Best of Luck, Lee.

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND’S BROWNS VS. EAGLES WINNER!
Pick # 1 Cleveland Browns (15.5)

[Mr. IWS]

Tom Stryker

32-9 ATS System Play

Philadelphia

[Mr. IWS]

Ron Raymond

Browns vs Eagles Winner!
Cleveland Browns (15.5)

[Mr. IWS]

Computer Crushers

7000* College Hoops Crusher Mega Winner
520 Syracuse-13 7:00 EST

9000* NFL Computer Crusher Totals Play of the Year
Under 40 Cleveland + Philadelphia 8:35 EST

[Mr. IWS]

RAS

UC Davis -1

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

25 Units
Eagles (-16) over Browns
8:30 PM -- Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia by 27-28
TV: ESPN Comments: The three major factors to consider when handicapping this game are (1) the fact Philadelphia needs to keep winning to keep its playoff hopes alive, (2) the number of injuries Cleveland has and (3) the weather. The Eagles (7-5-1) are chasing the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East for a playoff spot and simply cannot afford to lose. The incentive could not be stronger and the Eagles are playing as if they want it. Now, for those Cleveland injuries. Because of injuries the Browns (4-9) are down to third-string quarterback Ken Dorsey and will also be without running back Jerome Harrison. That does not bode well for a Cleveland team that has not scored a single touchdown in their last three games and scored a total of only 21 points on nine field goals in those games. The weather is supposed to be dreadful, with a 70% chance of rain, and that should hold the score down considerably, I look for the Eagles to open up a comfortable lead and then just coast home, knowing next week they have a showdown game at Washington.
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the South at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.

25 Units
Browns/Eagles UNDER 40 Points
8:30 PM -- Lincoln Financial Field
37 or less points to be scored

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the South at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.

25
75-Unit Side And Total Parlay

Eagles (-16) over Browns
Browns/Eagles UNDER 40 Points

[Mr. IWS]

ATS lock club has 4unit under 40clev/philli

[Mr. IWS]

Ted Sevransky

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings
PICK: Over

Both the T-wolves and the Kings have been bogged down offensively in recent ballgames, facing some of the toughest defensive teams in the NBA. Minnesota failed to get out of the 80’s against the Lakers and Spurs in their last two games. Sacramento hoisted a whopping 98 shots against the Knicks on Saturday, but connected on only 36% of those attempts, including an awful 3-23 from three point land, managing only 90 in an ugly home loss to the Knicks.

Both Minnesota and Sacramento are looking to push the pace against opposing teams that are willing to run with them. New T-wolves head coach Kevin McHale: “We’ve got to get some pace in the game offensively. It’s an offense that should flow, and you shouldn’t have to look over at the coach very much. You should be up and down the floor….I like the versatility of the team. You know, Mike Miller can bring it down the floor. Rashad McCants can bring it down the floor. (Randy) Foye can bring it down the floor. (Ryan) Gomes can bring it down and get into operating spots. That's the vision when we talked about the team and the players, and that's how we're going to play.”

After getting booed out of the gym in their 24 point home loss to the Knicks on Saturday, I expect a far more focused performance from the Kings tonight. We saw this team beat the Lakers outright as double digit home underdogs, then hang tough with LA in the revenge rematch at the Staples Center last week, scoring 103 and 113 in those two ballgames. Expect a similar pace tonight between these two struggling teams, in a contest that we can expect to go up and Over the total. Take the Over

[Mr. IWS]

akmens

cbb

10* cal-riverside -3

nba

10* bucks +5

nhl

10* san jose -180

nfl

10* eagles under 40

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND’S 5* NBA BEST BET WINNER
Pick # 1 New Jersey Nets (4.5)


RON RAYMOND'S 5* NHL UNDERDOG PICK OF THE NIGHT
Pick # 1 Los Angeles Kings (170)




RON RAYMOND’S 5* CBB BEST BET WINNER
Pick # 1 Youngstown State / Kent State Under 138.5 -110

[Mr. IWS]

Patron

10000 on philly eagles in the first half -9.5

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Far go

Game: Cleveland State at Syracuse Dec 15 2008 7:00PM
Prediction: Cleveland State

Reason: Syracuse enters this game off a big win against Long Beach St. on Saturday and now turns right around to play a much better opponent and one that matches up very well. Syracuse looks to go 10-0 for the first time in nine years and it is being asked to lay a very sizable number again. The Orange covered that game against the 49ers but they are just 1-3 ATS on the season when laying double-digits as the first three games resulted in victories but only by an average of just six ppg.

Cleveland St. is also coming off a win on Saturday at Marist and it wasn't even close as the Vikings rolled to a 19-point victory. Cleveland St. was voted as the preseason pick to win the Horizon League and it has gotten off to a solid 6-4 start by playing a schedule ranked 65th in the nation. The Vikings feature two of the best players in the conference in forward J'Nathan Bullock, the Horizon Preseason Player of the Year and guard Cedric Jackson, who was voted on the All-Horizon First Team.

The Vikings rely on a strong defense and that has been the case all year as they are allowing 56.4 ppg on 37.1 percent shooting. They have an 84.4 percent defensive efficiency rating which is easily best in their conference and 20th in the nation. Syracuse is right there as well with an 87.5 rating but that has come against a schedule that is ranked 225th so the numbers are no doubt skewed. Cleveland St. forces turnovers on 27.8 percent of possessions which is 9th in the country.

For playing such a soft schedule, Syracuse turns the ball over way too much and it is giving it up on 20.7 percent of its possessions. The assist/turnover ratio is at 1.33 which is good but the defense allows a ratio of 1.27 which is horrible. The Orange are forcing just 12.5 turnovers per game and they are forcing turnovers only 18.7 percent of the time. Those percentages are not going to get it done in the Big East and they aren?t going to aide in trying to cover this huge number. 5* Cleveland St. Vikings

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan

Game: Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings Dec 15 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche

Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Colorado in the NHL ? Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 58-62 making 37.8 units since 2002. Play against home teams against the money line off a road win by 1 goal and with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. Here is a second system that has gone 211-215 making 75.1 units since 2002. Play on road teams against the money line well rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season. Here is a third system that has gone 21-17 making 12.5 units since 2002. Play against home teams against the money line with a poor starting goalie sporting a save percentage of <= 89.5% of shots against him and a hot offensive team with 5 straight games with 30 or more shots on goal. Colorado is also in a strong role for this game noting that they are 23-12 against the money line (+14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Colorado is also a strong 49-27 against the money line (+20.9 Units) in road games after a close loss by 1 goal in their previous game since 1996. Take Colorado.

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio | NBA Sides
double-dime bet516 SAC -4.0 (-110) BetUS vs 515 MIN
Analysis:
Play on Sacramento at 10:35 ET.



Lenny Del Genio's 15* Western Conf Game of the Week --

Lenny Del Genio | NBA Sides
double-dime bet512 DAL -2.0 (-110) BetUS vs 511 DEN
Analysis:
Play on Dallas at 8:35 ET

[Mr. IWS]

Ted Sevransky

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings
PICK: Over

Both the T-wolves and the Kings have been bogged down offensively in recent ballgames, facing some of the toughest defensive teams in the NBA. Minnesota failed to get out of the 80’s against the Lakers and Spurs in their last two games. Sacramento hoisted a whopping 98 shots against the Knicks on Saturday, but connected on only 36% of those attempts, including an awful 3-23 from three point land, managing only 90 in an ugly home loss to the Knicks.

Both Minnesota and Sacramento are looking to push the pace against opposing teams that are willing to run with them. New T-wolves head coach Kevin McHale: “We’ve got to get some pace in the game offensively. It’s an offense that should flow, and you shouldn’t have to look over at the coach very much. You should be up and down the floor….I like the versatility of the team. You know, Mike Miller can bring it down the floor. Rashad McCants can bring it down the floor. (Randy) Foye can bring it down the floor. (Ryan) Gomes can bring it down and get into operating spots. That's the vision when we talked about the team and the players, and that's how we're going to play.”

After getting booed out of the gym in their 24 point home loss to the Knicks on Saturday, I expect a far more focused performance from the Kings tonight. We saw this team beat the Lakers outright as double digit home underdogs, then hang tough with LA in the revenge rematch at the Staples Center last week, scoring 103 and 113 in those two ballgames. Expect a similar pace tonight between these two struggling teams, in a contest that we can expect to go up and Over the total. Take the Over

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso BB 12/15
5 units Cal Riverside -3
5 units Raptors -4

[Mr. IWS]

PHIL STEEL marquee mon nite play-clev under 40 // phil is 7-3 last 10 mon nite totals !!

[Mr. IWS]

California Sports 5*
UC Riverside

[Mr. IWS]

Tom Freese MNF TOY



Philadelphia is in a 35-14 UNDER System that says to Play UNDER on all teams who won a game in their division as an underdog in their last game if they have a winning record in the second half of the season. The Eagles are 6-0 UNDER home vs. losing teams and they are 7-0 UNDER as home favorites of 7.5 points or higher. Cleveland is 7-1 UNDER their last 8 December games and they are 13-6 UNDER their last 19 games overall. The Browns are 6-2 UNDER off an ATS loss and they are 6-1 UNDER after allowing 150 or more yards rushing in their last game. 20* 'MNF 'TOTAL' OF THE YEAR PLAY ON 'UNDER'

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp NBA

New Jersey +4.5

Double Dime

[Mr. IWS]

Ats Lock Club
4 Under 40
5 magic -1.5
3 mavs -1

ATS Financial Package
3 Eagles -14.5
3 Wizards -1
3 Cuse -13

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass
20 Celtics
50 Col/Det Under NHL

NFL
50 Philly minus anything
30 Under

Steam
Char Over 185 NBA

[Mr. IWS]

ERin Rynning
Sacramento/playmaker

Anyone see Tim Trushel nba 20*

[Mr. IWS]

DOC

3 Unit Play. #32 Take Over in Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (8:30 pm ESPN) The Eagles are not a strong enough team to be laying this kind of wood but Cleveland does not have a quarterback and thus we will focus our attention on the total. For most of the season the over has been money in the bank on Monday night and that trend will continue as this total is way too low. McNabb has shown the ability to breakout against bad teams and that again will be the case today, as Philadelphia put up 30 points and we collect with the over in the process. Philly 31, Cleveland 17.
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

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529 UC DAVIS -1 7:00 EST
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[Mr. IWS]

DOC

3-Unit Play #516 Take Sacramento Over Minnesota (10 p.m. EST, Monday) This is less of a pick for the Kings and more of a pick against Minnesota, who is a very bad road team. This team has only won two games all season on the road and they come in having lost nine straight overall. They have lost by double digits in five straight road games. Neither of these teams are very good but the Kings are better offensively and both teams are bad defensively. The Kings have traditionally been a solid home bet but this year that has not been the case but they have faced a lot more tough opponents at home. This is the same court they beat the Lakers on by double digits just last week so we think they will play confidently tonight against a team that they should beat.

[Mr. IWS]

indiancowboy


Units. College Basketball GOM: (POD): Take Cleveland State +13 over Syracuse (Monday @ 7pm est).

6-3 Sunday: 4-1 NFL, 1-0 NBA and 1-2 College Basketball

3* Bengals +7 Outright over Redskins: Winner
3* Titans/Texans Under: EZ Cover: Winner
3* San Francisco +6.5 over Miami Dolphins: Winner
3* Chiefs +5.5 over Chargers: Nearly Outright: Winner
5* Broncos +8 over Panthers: Loss
3* Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 Outright over Miami Heat: Winner
3* Drexel +7.5 over Fairfield: Winner
3* Detroit +7.5 over Bowling Green: Loss
3* La Salle +9 over Villanova: Loss

Let's Hear it, Cleveland Rocks! Cleveland Rocks! Well, in this particular case, it is Cleveland State that will rock for us. Look, I have followed Cleveland State Basketball for quite a while now and Gary Waters has done wonders with this program. Hence, he gets my 5* recognition. Waters has this team as pre-season Horizon Favorites and given how competitive that conference has gotten. Look with All Conference Selections including Jackson and Bullock this team has great talent. Tack on the fact that Gary Waters has a lifetime winning % of 60% and he turned the Vikings season around immediately as they had their first 20 win season since 93-94 last year, what he has done is truly remarkable. This team is a strong rebounding team, plays great defense and takes care of the ball. In essence, they do all the intangibles. This team lost to West Virginia on the road by just 10 points and remember, WVU is a top 25 team in my power rankings (PR) while Syracuse is a top 40 team in the PR. Tack on the fact that the Cleveland State lost to Butler by a bucket at home when Butler was undefeated at the time and Syracuse comes off a big public win over Long Beach State, this sets us up nicely for a Cleveland State cover. Remember, the public is on Syracuse like a diaper rash on a two year old as they are all riding the jock straps of 'Cuse here and frankly unfairly so. I actually have 'Cuse winning this game by 6 points so I will take the 13 and roll with it. Syracuse has struggled against teams even outside the top 100 and I have Cleveland State as a top 75 team. Against Cornell who is ranked top 175 this team won by just 10 and against Virginia who is ranked in the top 110, this team won by just 3 points. Hence, they face a Cleveland State team who is a top 75 team and laying 13 points. The Vikings are 6-1 ATS as Underdogs of 13 points or greater and Syracuse is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games coming off a win of 20 points or greater. In short, we roll with the team that is coached extremely well, takes care of the ball very well, is a great underdog against a team who comes off a big public win and Vegas is on their tail when they come off such a big win. Let's roll with the Vikings! Cleveland Rocks! Cleveland Rocks!





3 Unit Play. Take Over 203 New Jersey Nets @ Toronto Raptors (Monday 7pm est). I understand that Toronto comes off a tough loss to NO at home but they killed this Nets team back on December 12th 101-79. The Nets also come off back to back losses including that loss to the Raptors and a tough loss to the Bulls at home. I actually think the Nets could bounce-back nicely here. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see this game go over here as well as I expect the Nets to be active dogs. In short, I always say over and over again when I believe a team will be an active dog, that game will likely go over. This game is no different. I can't express to you how much these teams hate each other. This stems back to the Vince Carter days, as well as when these two teams met in the Playoffs when Jason Kidd led the charge for the Nets. Hence, with the Nets coming off back to back frustrating losses, having massive revenge against the Raptors and being an active dog, they are likely to run up the score as well as the fact the Raptors will look to be very competitive coming off their home loss to the Hornets. Look for a competitiv game, likely a Nets Outright Win, but more importantly, an over to cash here. The Over is 4-1 when the Nets are small Underdogs on the road and the over is 7-2 for the Nets when they are road underdogs period - which is a testament to the great play of Devin Harris making this offense that much better - Yes, I said it, Devin Harris is SIGNIFICANTLY better than Jason Kidd as a point guard as he is the best point guard in the Eastern Conference followed only by Rondo and Mike Bibby. But, that is for anoher day, look for both teams to surpass a 100 as we cash on th over.





#510. 3 Unit Play. Take Boston Celtics -9 over Utah Jazz. (Monday @ 7:30pm est). Can you imagine playing the World Champs without your best player? Well, the Jazz will do just that today. With no Boozer, look for Kevin Garnett to abuse CJ Miles who is an extremely talented player, but frankly, the Celtics have an incredible deal of depth. But, more importantly, what people don't understand is that the Celtics love to kill good teams at home to send a message. By "kill" I mean beating the spead, because after all, that's all that really matters to us pathetic gamblers. The C's beat New Orleans by double-digits at home and also hammered the Magic at home. They send a message. You want to know something that is similar to both those games? This game. Why? Well, you see the Celtics hate teams that once defeated them in the past or their most recent memory of them is that team defeating them. The Magic had beat this team the last time they played them and the Hornets - and the Wizards had, and the Celtics remembered those games and killed this team. Well, the Jazz beat this team on the road last year and you better believe that the Celtics remember that game with a sour taste in their mouth. i look for the C's to lay the hammer down today on the Jazz and win by potentially 20, but more than likely 15-19. Look for a big third quarter from the C's today as the Jazz's legs cave through. Utah actually beat this team 110-92 on the road back on March 14th of last year and you don't think Boston remembers that? lol. Boston is 7-3 ATS of late and the beat goes on for Bean Town.





3 Unit Play. Take Over 183.5 between Charlotte Bobcats @ Atlanta Hawks. (Monday @ 7pm est). You know, even in a loss, you need to pay attention to what goes on. Well, Charlotte came back in the second half against the Pistons and made a game of it, heck, they nearly covered the spread. The question begs here does that carry over in this game and does it start early? Possibly. The Hawks come off a big win over the Cavs at home and to their credit, I firmly believe the Hawks can beat any team at home. I actually think Charotte will likely be an active dog here and this game is likely to go over. Charlotte did put up 53 points in the second half as compared to 33 points in the first half as they got used to their new team. Bell will fit in nicely with the system and the point is with Bell and Diaw this team will be a shooting team more than ever. On top of that, Diaw plays his old team in the Hawks as well so expect a big game from him. If Charlotte is an active dog here, it's going to be a headache for the Hawks who will have to fend this team off and consquently, I believe this game will go over. I actually think Charlotte tops 90 points here and the Hawks win straight up, but likely fail to cover. More importantly though, I look for this game to go over as Charlotte will be an acive dog as they got their feet wet with the new team last game, look an for an over take effect in this game.

[Mr. IWS]

ppp opinions
browns
philly under