12-15-08

[Mr. IWS]

Cleveland State at Syracuse Dec 15 2008 7:00PM
PICK: Syracuse
Your pick was graded at: -12.5 5Dimes
EXPERT: Larry Ness
TITLE: Larry's Las Vegas Insider-CBB (30-16 run)
EVALUATION: Play Not Evaluated.
REASON FOR PICK: Cleveland State fans will always have 1986, when head coach Kevin Mackey's team beat Bob Knight's Indiana team in the first round of the "Big Dance" and advanced to the Sweet 16 before losing 71-70 to Navy, led by "The Admiral." Last year's accomplishments pale in comparison but it's not often that a school goes from 10-21 one season (2006-07) to 21-13 the following year (2007-08). Head coach Gary Waters is in his third season with the Vikings and four starters return from last year, as the Vikings only lose senior guard Watson (averaged just 5.2 PPG). The 6-5 Bullock, a four-year starter, again leads the way, averaging 13.5 PPG and 6.9 RPG. He's joined in the starting lineup by the 6-9 Moore (5.1-3.6) and three guards, Cole (11.4), Jackson (9.4-5.1-5.1) and Brown (8.9-6.0). The 6-8 Tandy (4.0-4.5) is the team's top reserve. CSU is 6-4 but has topped 70 points just one time this year, averaging a modest 61.8 PPG. The team is allowing only 55.8 PPG but it had better play good 'D' as the Vikings are shooting a poor .411 from the floor, including just 25.7 percent on threes. That does not spell good news when heading into a game with Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. Syracuse failed to get an invite to the "Big Dance" for the second straight year last season and Boeheim's team seems intent on that streak ending right there! Syracuse suffered through numerous injuries last year and by Jan 1, Boeheim was starting three freshman and two sophomores. The Orange did win 21 games last year, led by 6-10 freshman Greene (17.7-7.2) and fellow freshman, PG Flynn (15.7-5.3 APG). Greene left for the NBA but Flynn is back, averaging 18.3 PPG and 5.0 APG in the team's 9-0 start. He's joined on the perimeter by vets Devendorf (14.0-3.3) and Rautins (9.4-3.8 APG), who have both recovered nicely from last year's injuries. Harris, a 6-4 swingman is off to a terrific start (13.7-8.6) and the 6-9 Onuaku (13.3-7.6) is no Greene, but he's not bad. The 6-8 Ongenaet (1.6-4.3) regularly starts but is little more than 'window dressing.' Two new freshman, the 6-6 Jones (6.0) and the 6-7 Joseph (5.4-3.3) have shown early promise while 6-9 sophomore Jackson (4.2-5.7) continues to fight for playing time. Syracuse looked a little 'rusty' on Saturday, having not played for a week. Still, the Orange recovered to beat Long Beach State, 79-55. Devendorf, who could be in some trouble because of an off-the-court issue, showed no signs anything was bothering him, scoring 13 points and adding five assists, while Onuaku held the team with 17. Harris had just five points (1-of-5 on FGs) and Flynn just seven points (2-of-7) but I hardly expect them to repeat those performances here.Syracuse averages 83.4 PPG and is shooting 50.3 percent as a team, dwarfing the offensive capabilities of Cleveland St. Syracuse last opened 10-0 back in 1999-2000 (that team opened 19-0!) and I surely don't see this CSU team standing in its way tonight. Cleveland State is 0-7 on the road vs ranked opponents since the 2002-03 season, losing by an average margin of 21.3 PPPG. That sounds about right, here! Las Vegas Insider on Syracuse (8*).

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang
Monday
20 Dime Philadelphia Eagles
Free Pick- Eagles-Browns Under.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

Western Conference Game of the Week

Dallas Mav


LV Insider CBB

Syracuse


Massive Mismatch NBA

Miami Heat

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

PHOENIX SUNS - 8.5 - - - At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over New York. The Knicks are starting to play good basketball, with wins in three of their last four games, and five straight covers. And this, no doubt, is a game that coach Mike D'Antoni really would like to win, after being shoved out the door by Phoenix GM Steve Kerr. But I don't think the Knicks will get the victory for their coach tonight. New York's last two wins were both upsets, and NBA road dogs are horrid off back-to-back upset wins. Consider that, since 1993, road dogs of less than 11 points off back to back upsets on the road are 0-18 ATS, if their previous win was by 11 or more points, and they're now matched up against a foe off a win. Look for an old-fashioned Blowout on Monday Night. NBA Roadkill on Phoenix. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS + 8.0 - - - At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Bobcats plus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. On Saturday night, we won our NBA Game of the Month on Atlanta, and the Hawks snapped Cleveland's 11-game win streak in their victory. But that upset win sets up tonight's play as Atlanta now falls into a letdown system of mine, which is 69-30 ATS, which goes against certain home teams off upset wins. Also, Charlotte comes into tonight's game off six straight losses, and rested NBA road underdogs of more than 7 points off 6+ losses are a solid 69-49 ATS since 1990. Finally, the Bobcats are 11-6 straight-up and 12-5 ATS vs. Atlanta in the history of this series. NBA Southeast Division Game of the Month on Charlotte. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al-
NBA
3* Golden State Warriors
3* Phoenix Suns
3* Charlotte Bobcats

[Mr. IWS]

burns


browns
underbrowns
clev st
usc
under mavs
jazz

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob is passing in NFL and NCAAB but has an opinion

Monday College Opinion
Cleveland State (+13) over SYRACUSE
Syracuse is 9-0 straight up this season, but the Orange are only 1-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season and they are only 31-63-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or more following consecutive wins – including just 9-36-2 ATS if they’re coming off a win of 15 points or more (which they are). Cleveland State is an experienced team (4 returning starters from last year’s 21 win squad) and the Vikings are very good defensively (37.5% FG allowed). My ratings favor Syracuse by 11 ½ points and I’ll lean with Cleveland State at +12 points or more.

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on Philadelphia and Cleveland to finish UNDER the total. Its true that Monday nights have been very kind to over bettors this season. While those results will cause many bettors to favor the 'over,' they won't have any effect on how this evening's game is played on the field. I successfully played on the Eagles to finish below the total last week and on an ugly December night in Philadelphia, I feel that tonight's number, which has already climbed from its opener, is generous. Here's an excerpt from last week's writeup on the Eagles/Giants under: "The Eagles are allowing 20.7 points per game and a mere 286.2 total yards. Last week, they limited a very high-scoring Arizona team to just 20 points. Prior to that, not including the game vs. the Giants, the Eagles had held three of four opponents to 14 points or less. Note that the Eagles have shown a tendency to play low-scoring games at this time of year in recent years. In fact, they've seen the UNDER go 6-2 in the final four weeks of the regular season the last two seasons. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 11-5 their last 16 road games played in the month of December. So, what did the Eagles do? They went in to New York and limited the defending Super Bowl Champs to 14 points and 211 yards! Naturally, the previously mentioned stats are all even better now. As for the Browns, they've been more respectable on defense than most people probably think. They're allowing a respectable average of 21.2 points per game on the road and just 21 on the road. Both marks are better than the league average. The Browns did allow 28 points last week. However, they held the high-scoring Colts and Texans to only 10 and 16 in their previous two games. The Browns have now seen the UNDER go a profitable 13-5-1 their last 19 games. The Eagles have seen the UNDER go 7-1 their last eight home games where the total ranged between 38.5 and 42 points. They've also seen the UNDER go a perfect 6-0 the last six times that they played a team with a losing record during the second half of the season. Look for those numbers to get even better tonight. *Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with CLEVELAND. The Eagles have been playing well and they desperately need a win here. That being said, I feel that this will prove to be a tough spot for them and that this line is too high. For starters, the Eagles are just 5-8 ATS the last 13 times that they've been favored by double-digits. That includes an 0-2 ATS mark as home favorites of greater than 14.5 points. Additionally, they're an ugly 1-6 ATS their last seven games against teams from the AFC North, most recently getting blown out by Baltimore, after tying lowly Cincinnati. Speaking of Cincinnati, the Browns may well take some inspiration from their instate neighbors. The Bengals entered the week with a 1-11 record but knocked off an NFC East team (Washington) which desperately needed a win to stay alive in the playoff race. That's just another example of how "must win" games don't always win, let alone cover by more than two touchdowns. Philadelphia is off back to back huge games - a Sunday Night matchup with Arizona and a big revenge win over the defending champs. Although this is Monday Night, with a pair of division rivals (Dallas and Washington) on deck to close out the season, I feel that it will be easy for them to look past the lowly Browns. That will be a mistake though as Cleveland has been at its best on Monday Nights. Indeed, half of the Browns' wins this season have come on Monday. They beat Buffalo AND they blew out the Giants. Overall, the Browns are 12-4-1 ATS the last 17 times that they faced a team with a winning record including 6-1-1 ATS the last eight times that they did so in the second half of the season. Look for them to shine under the Monday night lights once again. *Non-Conf. GOW

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with UTAH. The Celtics are off to a great start and they've been rolling along recently. I played on the champs to go 'under' in their last game and they rewarded me by holding the Hornets to just 82 points. The Celtics, who are just 4-5 ATS this season after allowing 85 points or less in their previous game, viewed that as a 'statement' game. Off that big win, I won't be surprised if they are slightly less intense on the defensive side of the floor tonight. That will prove costly though as the Jazz are also an excellent team, even assuming that Boozer (currently doubtful) doesn't play. The Jazz blew a lead and were upset by the Magic in their last game. That typically doesn't sit too well with Coach Sloan and I expect him to have his team fully focused tonight. The Jazz are 28-16 SU the last 44 times they were off an upset loss as a favorite, including a 4-2 SU/ATS mark this season. The Jazz are also a highly profitable 60-42-4 ATS (63-43 SU) against teams with a winning record the past few seasons. That includes a blowout win the last time they played here in Boston. The Jazz were eight point underdogs for that game and they won by 18 points! The Jazz have only played four road games over the past few weeks. They won three of those games and they lost the other by just two points. Look for them to deliver a huge effort here, giving the champs all they can handle once again. *Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on Denver and Dallas to finish UNDER the number. These teams played a fairly high-scoring game (108-105) against each other earlier this season. Note the final score was on pace to be somewhat lower before the teams combined for 62 fourth quarter points. More importantly, that game was played at Denver and Chauncey Billups was making his first game back with the Nuggets and there was an extra level of excitement in the building as a result. That result brought the 'over' to 4-2 the last six times that these teams played at Denver. However, tonight's game is at Dallas, where the Mavs can more effectively dictate the tempo and where the UNDER has been significantly more profitable. The last time (1/27/08) that these teams played here at Dallas, the total was 208.5 yet they combined for only 175 points. That game, which stayed below the number by more than 30 points, brought the UNDER to 6-2 the last eight times that the Nuggets traveled to Dallas. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a highly profitable 16-4 the last 20 series meetings played here at Dallas. Overall, the Nuggets have seen the UNDER go 52-34-2 their last 88 games against teams from the Southwest. Not to be outdone, during the same stretch, the Mavs have seen the UNDER go 52-23 against teams from the Northwest. The Mavs have already seen four of their first six games this month fall below the number. Including those results, the UNDER is now 13-3 their last 16 games played in December. I expect tonight's game to also prove lower-scoring than expected with the final combined score staying beneath the generous number. *Blue Chip

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with USC. At first glance, this pointspread seems pretty high. However, I feel that it will prove to a mismatch and that the Trojans are more than capable of covering the large number. For starters, note that the Trojans are a profitable 23-14 ATS (37-0 SU!) the last 37 times that they were home favorites of greater than a dozen points. The Trojans covered the spread in their last game but lost by a single point to Oklahoma, their third loss of the season. That should spell trouble for Pepperdine. The Trojans bounced back from their previous two losses by going 2-0 SU/ATS in their following game, winning those games by 27 points, as a 13.5 point favorite, and 27 points as an 18 point favorite. They're a perfect 4-0 at home on the season, outscoring opponents by a combined score of 73.6 to 56.7 margin. Pepperdine, on the other hand, is winless on the road, getting outscored by a 77-57.7 margin in those games. The Waves are 1-8 on the season overall, including 0-3 SU/ATS their last three games. All those games were double-digit losers and none of those opponents were as strong as USC. Things should start getting better at Pepperdine soon. That being said, the Waves lack experience and on-court leadership and those flaws will be costly against a powerful and motivated opponent like the Trojans. Look for USC to jump on top early and never look back. *Personal Favorite

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with CLEVELAND STATE. I know that Syracuse comes in with an undefeated record but I still don't believe the Vikings are getting enough respect here. Cleveland State comes in allowing an average of just 48 points in four games this month. Last time out the Vikings held Marist to just 47 points, en route to an impressive 19-point victory. Prior to that, the Vikings limited Valparaiso to 42 points and followed it up by holding a pair of good teams (West Virginia and Butler!) to only 50 and 53 points. That type of stellar defense makes it difficult for teams to knock off the Vikings by large amounts. In fact, Cleveland State is 6-4 and NONE of their four losses came by more than 10 points. The Vikings are 4-2 SU and 4-1 ATS on the road, outscoring opponents by a 64.5 to 59 margin in those games. The Vikings are also 4-1-1 ATS the last six times that they were road underdogs of greater than a dozen points. During the same stretch, the Orange were just 7-11 ATS as home favorites of greater than a dozen points. Both teams played on Saturday. That figures to favor the vikings. Cleveland State is 14-7 ATS its last 21 lined games when playing with one or less day's rest in between games. During the same stretch, the Orange are just 6-8 ATS in 14 lined games, when playing with one or less day's rest in between games. Excluding a couple of games that landed right on the number, the Orange are a money-burning 39-61 ATS the last 100 times that they played a game vs. a team which allows 64 points or less. Look for them to have their hands full vs. this tough Vikings defense as the game proves to be much closer than most are expecting. *NCAA Best Bet