12-16-08

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error- NCAA

Larry's had a 'sweet' 30-17 (63.8%) run in college hoops since Nov 20 and on tonight's short card, has just one play. He hasn't released an Oddsmaker's Error play in over 10 days but he's ready to cash in tonight. Get all the details with his expert analysis and then meet Larry at the cashier's window. Get it now.


Denver Pioneers

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS

Basketball (NBA)

PORTLAND

Game: Sacramento Kings vs. Portland Trail Blazers Game Time: 12/16/2008 10:05:00 PM Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers Reason: I'm laying the points with PORTLAND. Seeing one's coach fired and getting a new one can be an emotional experience for players in all sports. Often, all that emotion translates into a big effort in the first game under the new coach. That was the case at Sacramento last night. Playing their first game under coach Kenny Natt, a longtime assistant, the 'emotional' Kings missed their first 10 shots. They eventually warmed up though and played one of their best games of the season, en route to a double-digit victory. While all the emotion that comes from a coaching change can often help a team in its first game, it rarely sticks around for the following one. That being said, off last night's big win, I expect the Kings to suffer from an emotional letdown this evening. Regardless of the Kings' "emotional state," they're simply in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. For starters, Sacramento is simply not a good team right now, particularly on the road. Yes, the Kings won last night. However, that was at home and that game came against a bad Minnesota team which is now 4-20 on the season. Additionally, the T-Wolves were playing the second of back to back games. Tonight's situation is entirely different and much more difficult. Tonight, the Kings are on the road and tonight they'll be the team which is playing the second of back to back games. Note that the Kings are 2-9 on the road this season and that the last two times that they played the second of back to back games resulted in losses of 23 and 24 points. Tonight is far worse than a "regular" back to back situation though as the Kings are also playing their fourth game in five nights. That's as physically demanding as it gets in the NBA. Throw in the "emotional factor," from the coaching change and I expect the Kings to be an exhausted bunch. While the Kings are ripe to get blown out, the Blazers are hungry for a big win. They recently played a 5-game Eastern road trip, which saw them win four of five. They've only had two home games, which were separated by a road game, since that trip. They lost the first by a point vs. Orlando and then were upset by the Clippers on Friday. That means that they haven't had a win here yet in December (last win here was a blowout of New Orleans in late Nov.) and that they've had the past few days off to build up their anger about it. The Blazers are 8-4 ATS the last dozen times that they had three or more days off in between games. They're also 5-2 SU/ATS the last seven times that they played a home game where the total ranged between 195 and 199.5 points. In addition to have the talent edge, I look for the Blazers to be both the fresher and hungrier team tonight and for that to lead to a convincing one-sided victory. *NBA Blowout GOM

Basketball (NCAA)

DENVER

Game: Florida Atlantic vs. Denver Game Time: 12/16/2008 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Denver Reason: I'm playing on DENVER. This line has fallen from its opening number and is now at the point where a SU victory also ensures a pointspread victory. I feel that provides us with solid value with the home team. Neither team has played particularly well. However, the Pioneers have the advantage of playing at home and that's significant. The last time the Pioneers were on this floor, they earned a 62-58 victory over South Dakota State. Florida Atlantic did snap a 4-game losing streak last time out. However, the Owls have been dreadful on the road. In four road games, they've gone 0-4 losing to the likes of James Madison, McNeese St and Florida Gulf Coast. Looking at last year's meetings between these teams and we find the Pioneers at 2-0 ATS and that the home team was victorious in both tries. Overall, the Pioneers are 5-2 SU/ATS the last seven times that they were listed as home favorites of three points or less or at 'pick'em.' Look for homecourt to be the difference again this season, as the Owls remain winless in their true road games. *best bet

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang
Tuesday
10 Dime Portland ( COLLEGE )
Free Pick- Marquette

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on DENVER. This line has fallen from its opening number and is now at the point where a SU victory also ensures a pointspread victory. I feel that provides us with solid value with the home team. Neither team has played particularly well. However, the Pioneers have the advantage of playing at home and that's significant. The last time the Pioneers were on this floor, they earned a 62-58 victory over South Dakota State. Florida Atlantic did snap a 4-game losing streak last time out. However, the Owls have been dreadful on the road. In four road games, they've gone 0-4 losing to the likes of James Madison, McNeese St and Florida Gulf Coast. Looking at last year's meetings between these teams and we find the Pioneers at 2-0 ATS and that the home team was victorious in both tries. Overall, the Pioneers are 5-2 SU/ATS the last seven times that they were listed as home favorites of three points or less or at 'pick'em.' Look for homecourt to be the difference again this season, as the Owls remain winless in their true road games. *best bet

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with PORTLAND. Seeing one's coach fired and getting a new one can be an emotional experience for players in all sports. Often, all that emotion translates into a big effort in the first game under the new coach. That was the case at Sacramento last night. Playing their first game under coach Kenny Natt, a longtime assistant, the 'emotional' Kings missed their first 10 shots. They eventually warmed up though and played one of their best games of the season, en route to a double-digit victory. While all the emotion that comes from a coaching change can often help a team in its first game, it rarely sticks around for the following one. That being said, off last night's big win, I expect the Kings to suffer from an emotional letdown this evening. Regardless of the Kings' "emotional state," they're simply in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. For starters, Sacramento is simply not a good team right now, particularly on the road. Yes, the Kings won last night. However, that was at home and that game came against a bad Minnesota team which is now 4-20 on the season. Additionally, the T-Wolves were playing the second of back to back games. Tonight's situation is entirely different and much more difficult. Tonight, the Kings are on the road and tonight they'll be the team which is playing the second of back to back games. Note that the Kings are 2-9 on the road this season and that the last two times that they played the second of back to back games resulted in losses of 23 and 24 points. Tonight is far worse than a "regular" back to back situation though as the Kings are also playing their fourth game in five nights. That's as physically demanding as it gets in the NBA. Throw in the "emotional factor," from the coaching change and I expect the Kings to be an exhausted bunch. While the Kings are ripe to get blown out, the Blazers are hungry for a big win. They recently played a 5-game Eastern road trip, which saw them win four of five. They've only had two home games, which were separated by a road game, since that trip. They lost the first by a point vs. Orlando and then were upset by the Clippers on Friday. That means that they haven't had a win here yet in December (last win here was a blowout of New Orleans in late Nov.) and that they've had the past few days off to build up their anger about it. The Blazers are 8-4 ATS the last dozen times that they had three or more days off in between games. They're also 5-2 SU/ATS the last seven times that they played a home game where the total ranged between 195 and 199.5 points. In addition to have the talent edge, I look for the Blazers to be both the fresher and hungrier team tonight and for that to lead to a convincing one-sided victory. *NBA Blowout GOM

[Mr. IWS]

PPP

4*Marquette -

3*Sacramento Kings

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

2 Star Selection
Tennessee Tech (+17) over FLORIDA STATE
16-Dec-08 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Florida State tends to play to the level of the competition under coach Leonard Hamilton and that has been particularly true this season. Hamilton’s team is only 5-12 ATS as a favorite of 12 points or more in his 7 seasons at the helm (and good as an underdog) and while he hasn’t been favored by 12 points or more this season the Seminoles would be 0-3 ATS as a big favorite if there were lines on games on their other 3 non-conference home games aside from Florida. Florida State would have been favored by about 15 points against Stetson, a game they won just 79-77, they would have been favored by about 18 points against Coastal Carolina (an 82-70 win) and they would have been favored by about 20 points against Western Illinois (a 67-55 win). Florida State also barely won 3 road games against lesser teams, beating Jacksonville by only 2 points, LaSalle by only 4 points, and Georgia State by just 5 points. Tennessee Tech applies to a solid 165-78-3 ATS big road underdog angle and using all games for each team this season would result in a prediction of Florida State by only 12 points. Tennessee Tech, however, is not going to continue to have opponents make just 24.8% of their 3-pointers or shoot just 65% from the line, so the Golden Eagles are not quite as good as their scores suggest. My ratings, which adjust for random variance, favor Florida State by just 15 points. Tennessee Tech hasn’t fared well against better competition this season, but they are an improved team and even using their game ratings against good teams (E Tenn State and Jacksonville State) would lead to a line of Florida State by 16 ½ points, but using Florida State’s game ratings against bad teams lowers their rating and gets us back down to 14 points. So, the line should be no higher than 16 ½ points at the very worst and the situation is favorable for Tennessee Tech. I’ll take Tennessee Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at +16 points or more.
2-Stars at +16 points or more.