12-17-08

[Mr. IWS]

::moneybag::

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Revenge GOW-CBB (31-17 run)


Larry had a 4-1 CBB weekend but began the new week with a stumble on Syracuse. However, he offered a rare Oddsmaker's Error play yesterday and won with Denver (-2), a 66-55 winner over FAU. Larry's ASSAULT on the CBB pointspread continues tonight (he's 31-17 (64.6%) s/Nov 20) with his Revenge GOW. "The winning continues!" Want in?

UTEP

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 7* MASSIVE MISMATCH: 31-17 run

November and December can be 'tricky' months, as handicappers "feel their way around" the new CBB season. Larry's had few troubles in the early going, entering tonight's play on a 31-17 (64.5%) run with all his CBB releases going back to 11/20. Don't miss his 7* MASSIVE MISMATCH tonight, a game with B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it!


UNLV

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with MINNESOTA. The Cavaliers have been playing great basketball. However, they're dealing with some key injuries right now and they finally saw their winning streak snapped last time out. I played against them in that game and they lost outright at Atlanta. Now, they're back on the road and expected to lay more points than they've been asked to lay for a road game all season long. I believe that's asking too much and that the line is too high. Yes, the T-Wolves got blown out last game. However, that was on the road and they were playing the second of back to back games. Prior to that, they'd been playing much better since the coaching change and had gone 3-1 ATS their previous four games. Just like the Cavs are laying more points on the road than they have all season, the T-Wolves are getting more points at home than they have vs. any team all season. In fact, Minnesota has hosted the likes of the Celtics, Spurs, Jazz, Suns, Nuggets and Blazers. Yet, none of those teams have been asked to lay more than eight points when they came here. It is worth noting that the T-Wolves are a tidy 5-1 ATS the last six times they were underdogs of greater than eight points though. The Cavs definitely miss Gibson, as he had been shooting very well before the injury. Not having Ilgauskas, who is listed as day-to-day, is arguably an even bigger blow though. In tonight's matchup, it should allow Minnesota's Al Jefferson to chance to have a big game. Look for a determined effort from the T-Wolves this evening, as they give their short-handed guests all they can handle and continue their recent success as large underdogs. *Best Bet


I'm playing on the Bucks and 76ers to finish OVER the total. I feel that this line is too low. The Bucks scored 98 points last time out. That marked the fourth straight game in which they have scored greater than 95 points. They averaged a whopping 106.25 during that stretch. Looking back further and we find that the Bucks have scored greater than 90 points in 10 of their last 11 games and that they've topped 95 in nine of those. Milwaukee does come off a strong defensive effort, holding the Heat to a mere 83 points. However, that wasn't normal. Even including that result, the Bucks are still allowing an average of 107 points through their past five games. For the season, they're allowing 101.2 per game on the road. As we saw in Miami, the Bucks are capable of occasionally delivering a defensive gem. However, they rarely do it twice in a row. In fact, the OVER is 8-1-1 the last 10 times that Milwaukee was coming off a game in which it allowed 85 points or less. Looking back further and we find the OVER at a highly profitable 71-41-7 (63.3%) the last 119 times that the Bucks were coming off a game in which they held their previous opponent to 85 points or less. It should also be noted that the Bucks have seen the OVER go 14-5 the last 19 times that they played a road game with a total ranging from 190 to 194.5 The 76ers broke out with a big offensive performance in their last game, scoring 104 points vs. Washington. If history is any indication, they've got a great chance of reaching triple- digits again this evening. The last time that the 76'ers faced the Bucks, they scored 119. That game finished well above the total and brought the OVER to 10-5 the last 15 meetings in this series. It also marked the third time in four series meetings in which the 76ers scored a minimum of 112 points. Look for another high-scoring affair. *Blue Chip


I'm laying the points with DETROIT. The Wizards are really struggling right now, as they've lost three straight and have just won win in their past seven games. Their three most recent losses came by 34, 15 and 20 points. The fact that their lone victory in the last two weeks came against these same Pistons will NOT benefit the Wizards here. The Pistons were playing poorly when they traveled to Washington last week and the loss marked their third straight. They're back home now though and they've won two in a row. In their most recent game, which came back on 12/13, the Pistons dominated Charlotte. However, they pulled their starters in the fourth quarter and the second-stringers nearly blew the lead. In fact, the starters had to go back in the game just to make sure that Detroit didn't lose entirely. Assuming that the Pistons get a double-digit lead in the second half, that result should serve us well here, as the Pistons will be much more likely to "keep the pedal to the metal." That should be particularly true, given that the Pistons are playing with "revenge." The Pistons won by 'only' eight points when they hosted the Wizards in November. However, the previous meeting here resulted in 28-point victory by the Pistons. Including the victory at Charlotte, the Pistons are now a profitable 14-5-1 ATS their last 20 games played in the month of December. Look for them to improve on those numbers with a double-digit victory here this evening. *Personal Favorite


I'm taking the points with SIENA. After a great finish to last season, including a win over Vanderbilt in the tournament, the Saints came in with extremely lofty expectations and goals this season. Along with those expectations came some fairly hefty pointspreads. The Saints have been asked to lay double-digits when facing weaker teams and they haven't been given many when facing top tier opponents. In fact, the Saints were only very slight underdogs (line was at pick'em but closed at 2) vs. Oklahoma State and were only 7.5 point underdogs vs. Tennessee. As the Saints failed to cover in either of those games, their pointspreads against good teams are now becoming significantly more reasonable. Granted, those earlier games were both on a neutral court, while tonight's game is at Pittsburgh. That being said, tonight's line is also much higher. Additionally, the Saints come in with some much needed confidence, having blown out Marist by double-digits (won by 17 as 14 point favorites) and are determined for a much better showing against a ranked team. The Saints led the Red Foxes by only two at halftime but dominated the second half. I expect them to carry the momentum into this evening's clash. Yes, Pittsburgh is undefeated and has been playing very well. The Panthers crushed Vermont and UMBC the last two times out. However, prior to that, when facing tougher opponents, three of their previous four games were decided by 14 points or less. Siena, which returned all its major weapons from last year, is much better than most people realize. With Pittsburgh looking ahead to a big game at Florida State and then to the beginning of Big East play, I fully expect the Saints to provide their toughest test yet. While it won't have an effect on tonight's game, its interesting to note that arguably the biggest upset in Siena's history came exactly 20 years ago at this very same campus. Going into the game against Siena, Pittsburgh had not lost a home nonconference game in two years while Siena had played only one previous game against a Big East school — a 113-72 beat-down at the hands of Syracuse. Yet, the Saints scored the remarkable upset. The hero of that game Steve McCoy was quoted as saying: "We thought we could play with anyone in the country. It was one of those things where you get a small school like Siena playing well, maybe Pitt's looking at the next game on the schedule, and we win the game." Siena, which allows a respectable 65 points per game, forced 26 turnovers last time out. The Saints are now forcing an average of 19.4 turnovers per game - the 18th best mark in the nation. No team has beaten them by more than 14 points this season and we find them at a highly profitable 14-6 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs. The Saints are also 12-3 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as underdogs of greater than eight points. This is a big game for them and I expect a huge effort. *ESPN GOM

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness 15 Star TV Game of Week

New Orleans Hornets

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Wednesday
10 Dime St. Mary's - Don't trust the Ducks whatsoever and would much rather take the 7-1 Gaels, who rolls in on a a four-game winning streak. Oregon comes into tonights contest with a 4-5 mark after dropping a 64-57 loss to San Diego on Saturday. The Ducks are a young team that includes nine underclassmen, and have dropped four of their last five games.

And get this, the mighty Ducks? only home loss so far waas an 82-79 overtime defeat to, ahem, Oakland on Nov. 17. I guess I didn't realize Oakland had a university, or, at the least, didn't think about it much.

Nah, my choice to build the bankroll for tomorrow night is to side with Saint Mary?s, which has received votes for both the AP (3 votes) and the USA Today / ESPN Coaches? (11 votes) Polls. The Gaels won the most recent match-up, 99-87, last season in Moragaa, California, but again, Oregon is so young, so it won't have much revenge on the brain.

The Ducks are mired in ATS ruts of 2-6 as an underdog in this range, 1-4 against non-conference foes, 1-5 as an underdog and 1-4 overall. Thus, with a St. Mary's team that has covered four of five against Pac 10 foes, we'll side with the Gaels tonight. *(didn't this guy just pick the Oregon Ducks in a teaser a couple nights ago, that lost?)

FREE - Rider (See daily video for your analysis in this game)



Thursday night winner
25-Dime Indianapolis Colts - (if your line on this game is 7-1/2 you are to buy the 1/2-point and lay just 7 points; if the line is 7, buy the 1/2 and lay 6-1/2)

Analysis due back by Wednesday night at 8 p.m. eastern

NOTE - Be sure to print this package out if you're buying this via the One-Day Discount Package. The plays will not be visible once the One-Day Discount Package expires on Wednesday night.

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- St Marys
Millionaire- Santa Clara
Billionaire- Georgia State

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

3 Star Selection
***Washington (+10) over DETROIT
04:35 PM Pacific - Rotation 511
Detroit made a huge mistake in trading Chauncey Billups to Denver for Allen Iverson and the Pistons are just 9-8 straight up with Iverson. Even when the Pistons were good they had a tough time getting up for bad teams and they are now 3-17 ATS s a favorite of more than 9 points against a team with a win percentage of less than .360 if that opponent did not have to play the previous night, including 0-2 ATS this season (a spread loss to Washington when they had Billups and an 80-106 loss to Minnesota). The Pistons also lost straight up to Washington last week, so the Wizards should be playing with some confidence tonight. Washington has lost and failed to cover the spread in 3 consecutive games after covering in 5 straight, but the Wizards apply to a 113-46-4 ATS situation that plays on losing teams on a losing streak and the Wizards are 4-1 ATS as an underdog after consecutive spread wins this season. Washington is only 9-13 ATS overall this season, but they are 6-2 ATS as an underdog when rested after a loss and 5-2 ATS as a dog of 7 points or more, so playing as a big dog with rest after a loss and a couple of spread losses is when you can expect the best out of the Wizards. Washington is actually 20-4 ATS in their last 24 road games with rest after a straight up and ATS loss (2-1 this year) and my ratings only favor Detroit by 9 points in this game. I’ll take Washington in a 3-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 2-Stars at +9 ½ or +9 points.

2 Star Selection
**Jacksonville State (+10) over UAB
05:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 555
Jacksonville State was a horrible team last season, but that has changed under first year coach James Green, who has a couple of freshman making a huge impact. Freshman F Brandon Crawford leads the team in scoring (15.8 ppg) while making 58% of his shots, 50% of his 3-pointers, and playing good defense (1.3 steals per game). Another freshman forward, Geddes Robinson, is averaging 12.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, and has made 61% of his shots this season. The Gamecocks returned 4 starters from last year’s team, so the depth is much better than it has ever been. That depth showed itself last week when the Gamecocks won 82-66 at Tennessee Tech as a 3 ½ point dog while playing without Crawford, who was nursing an injury he suffered in practice. Crawford is expected to play in this game and the Gamecocks have been every bit as good as UAB has been so far this season. The Blazers have been nothing special this season and their 8 man rotation just became a 6 man rotation with the academic ineligibility of backup G Ed Berrios and the loss of Terrence Roderick, who left school last week. Jacksonville State has covered every spread this season by at least 10 points each and they have two straight up victories as double-digit underdogs, including a win at U Mass. Using this year’s games only would result a fair line of UAB by only 4 points, as these two teams have played at the same level. Jacksonville State’s worst game, a 13 point loss at South Carolina would still be good enough to lose by just 8 or 9 points against an average UAB effort, so there is absolutely no way to justify a line of 10 points in this game. Jacksonville State is still being partially assessed on how bad they were last season, but they are nothing like last year’s team and remain underrated. I’ll take Jacksonville State in a 3-Star Best Bet at +11 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +9 points