12-18-08

Brandon Lang

Thursday night winner
25-Dime Indianapolis Colts - (if your line on this game is 7-1/2 you are to buy the 1/2-point and lay just 7 points; if the line is 7, buy the 1/2 and lay 6-1/2)

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error (33-17 run)

Troy

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider NBA

Portland

[Chico1856]

DR BOB

JACKSONVILLE 21 Indianapolis (-6.0) 17
05:15 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Dec-18 - Stats Matchup
The Colts have not won a road game by more than 4 points all season (7 games) and now they’re favored by 6 points in a divisional road game against a decent Jaguars team that is still playing hard for coach Jack Del. Indy couldn’t even cover a 4 ½ point spread against a horrible Cleveland team in their last road game and I certainly don’t expect them to cover the spread tonight. Jacksonville’s win last week over Green Bay sets them up in a 101-43-3 ATS home underdog momentum situation while the Colts apply to a negative 27-74-5 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their current win streak. Indianapolis also applies to a negative 43-87-4 ATS last road game situation and a 126-200-16 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests that they do not have the characteristics of a team that is likely to cover as a road favorite. In addition to the technical analysis, the Jaguars are also a good play based on the line value, as the Colts should not be close to a 6 point favorite in this game. My math model, in fact, favors the Colts by just ½ a point in this game. I won’t bore you with the details of how these teams match up (Jacksonville won 23-21 at Indy earlier this season), but a simple analysis using point differentials will prove my point about the bad line in this game. The Colts have out-scored their opponents by an average of 23.1 to 19.6 points and have played a schedule that is 1.6 points tougher than average, so based on compensated points the Colts are +5.1 points better than average. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have been out-scored by an average of 19.4 to 22.1 by a schedule of teams that is 1.5 points better than average, so they are 1.2 points worse than average based on compensated point differential. The home field advantage is about 3 points in the NFL at this point in the season (home field advantage is higher later in the season), so you get a prediction of Colts by 3.3 points using this simple compensated points analysis (5.1 + 1.2 – 3.0 = 3.3). I don’t use points at all in my math model since points are contingent on some elements that are random. The thing that is most random in football is fumbles and the Colts have been fortunate enough to be +6 in fumbles lost margin (they’ve only lost 5 fumbles while their opponents have lost 11 fumbles) while the Jaguars are an unlucky -6 in fumbles margin. The difference of 12 fumbles between these teams is equivalent to a total of 41 points (fumbles are worth 3.4 points on average), which is 2.9 points per game (41 divided by 14 games). Fumbles are 90% random in the NFL, so a net fumble difference of 12 fumbles over 14 games (0.86 per game) would result in a prediction of a 0.09 fumble difference in this game. So, the difference in past net fumbles lost margin between these teams (0.86 per game) and the likely future fumble margin (0.09) would result in Jacksonville being 2.6 points better going forward relative to the Colts (0.77 difference in past fumbles to future fumbles times 3.4 points per fumble is 2.6 points). In other words, the prediction of Colts by 3.3 points using past scoring margins and level of opposition of each team would be Colts by 0.7 points if you take out the randomness of the fumbles. Even if the Jaguars were -1 in fumbles in this game you still can’t come close to justifying a line of Colts by 6 points. Bob Sanders is listed as probable for the Colts this week, but Indy has been no better in 5 games with Sanders in the lineup than they’ve been in 9 games without him. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have actually played better defensively in two games since losing starting CB Mathis. My math model favors the Colts by 0.3 points using projected statistics for this game, so there is certainly plenty of line value favoring Jacksonville in this game no matter how you do the math. The combination of that line value with a good situation makes the Jaguars the percentage side to take in the game. I’ll take Jacksonville in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points or more and for 2-Stars at +3 points. I also lean with the Under, as my model projects 40 total points.

[Mr. IWS]

Big AL – Final report:




CBB

3* North Carolina



NBA

3* Portland



NFL

3* Jacksonville

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with JACKSONVILLE. Its true that this game technically means more to the Colts than it does to the Jaguars. After all, Indianapolis is trying to secure a playoff berth while Jacksonville is playing out the string. However, that doesn't mean that the Jaguars won't want the game just as much and fight just as hard on the field. Indeed, this is the Jaguars' home finale and they'd love a chance to do some damage to their hated division rival's playoff chances. Perhaps more importantly, with the game televised on the NFL network, this is a chance for the Jaguars to prove to the world that they're much better than their 5-9 record indicates. Make no mistake, the Jags ARE better than their record indicates. The Colts know that all too well as Jacksonville already upset them (23-21) at Indianapolis, back in September. Including that result, Indianapolis is just 4-12 ATS its last 16 games vs. teams from within the AFC South. Most people probably assume that the powerful Colts are profitable when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. That's not typically the case though. In fact, the Colts are just 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were in the 'revenge' role. It should be noted that the Colts are also 4-8 ATS their last dozen December games and 1-4-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road favorites in the +3.5 to +7 range. The Jags showed that they haven't quit by upsetting the Packers last week. Including that result, they're 14-8 ATS the last 22 times that they were getting points. During that stretch, they're also 11-6 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Playing their home finale, look for the Jags to improve on those numbers by delivering a huge effort. *Thursday GOM

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on the Jaguars and Colts to finish UNDER the total. These teams saw their September meeting slip above the total. However, that over/under line was lower and the teams still combined for 44 points. Seeing teams combine for 44 points is fairly common, as that's one of the most popular scores. That's worth noting as tonight's over/under is currently at (or above) that key number, which I feel provides us with plenty of value. Neither team has run the ball particularly well. However, I feel that both teams will look to do so frequently tonight. The Colts, who are hoping to have running back Addai back in the lineup, would badly like to get their ground attack going before the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Jags have come under fire for not running the ball enough. They did run the ball well (and often!) the last time that they faced the Colts though. Indeed, Jacksonville ran the ball a whopping 48 times for 236 yards in that game. As you know, frequent running plays help to keep the clock moving. The Colts have seen the UNDER go 6-2 the last eight times that they played a road game with an over/under line ranging from 42.5 to 45 points and 2-0 their last two road games overall. Meanwhile, we find the UNDER at a perfect 5-0 the last five times that the Jaguars were listed as underdogs. Look for tonight's game to also prove lower-scoring than most are expecting. *Blue Chip

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with PORTLAND. I successfully played against the Blazers when they failed to cover at Toronto in their recent road trip. However, I felt that they were ready for a break-out game last time out and I played them against the Kings. They responded by blowing out the Kings by more than 30 points. Playing with "double-revenge," I expect the Blazers to build off that big win with another huge effort tonight. Yes, the Suns did win both the earlier meetings. However, those games were both at Phoenix while tonight's game is at Portland. That's especially significant in this case as the Blazers have been much stronger at home. They're 8-2 here on the season, outscoring opponents by a 104-91 margin. Meanwhile, the Suns have lost three in a row away from Phoenix and are now 3-6 ATS their last nine road games. Note that the Suns have fared well against weak teams but that they're just 3-9 ATS on the season when facing a team with a winning record. The Blazers got it done on both sides of the floor last time out. I expect them to feed off the energy from the home crowd and for them to move to 6-2 SU/ATS the last eight times that they were coming off a game in which they scored 105 or more points. *TNT GOM

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on the Suns and Blazers to finish UNDER the total. These teams played two games at Phoenix and both the over/under lines were in the 190s. Tonight's game is at Portland, where the Blazers will have a better chance at slowing down the tempo, yet total is higher and has also already climbed from its opening number. I feel that provides us with plenty of value. While the 'under' was just 1-1 in the two earlier meetings, those games averaged 198.5 points and neither finished with more than 203. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 4-1 the last five meetings in this series. Its true that the Suns have been scoring a lot of points recently. However, their games have come against teams like the Knicks, Magic, Lakers and Bucks which were happy to play their tempo and trade points. Now, they've got Shaq back in the lineup, which tends to slow things down, and they're facing a team which is capable of playing strong defense. Last time out, the Blazers allowed a mere 77 points. That was against the lowly Kings. However, they've also seen the UNDER go a profitable 57-34-1 when facing a team with a winning record over the past 2+ seasons. The Blazers put up big offensive numbers the past two games. However, the 120-112 score against the Clippers was somewhat deceiving as it went to double overtime. Additionally, while they did score 109 against the Kings, the game still stayed well below the total, due to the Blazers' outstanding defense. Including that result, the UNDER is now a highly profitable 26-9-1 (74%) the last 36 times that the Blazers had scored 105 or more points in their previous game. Look for those numbers to improve here, as this evening's final score proves lower-scoring than most are expecting. *TV TOW

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Jaguars
Millionaire- Cal St Northridge
Money Maker- Louisville

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
3 jags