hartzell
12-20-2008, 01:31 AM
Found this on another site. It looks like it should be real helpful, if the trends continue. I have a real simple excel file that I made with all of the info compiled together. I would be happy to share though I'm not sure what would be the easiest way to hand it out. Also, if you want to check out the original site let me know. Good luck.
Moneyline / Rankings etc.. System
This System went 33-14 last year !!!
** Some games overlapp and show up twice (Teams that hit in more than one system hit a high percentage last year) , other conflict and cancell each other out
2 Units-Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record
THIS IS THE WEAKEST OF THE BUNCH -- WENT 2-3 LAST YEAR
Maryland
W Michigan
Oregon
Minnesota
Mich St
Penn St
Oklahoma
3 Units and 5 Units
Bet the team with the worst season record for 3 Units if a dog.
If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units:
THIS SYSTEM WHEN 19-7 LAST YEAR:
3 UNIT PLAYS:
Bet the team with the worst season record for 3 Units if a dog.
Colo St
Memphis
So Miss
Notre Dame ----- ** WATCH THIS AS ITS CLOSE TO A PK NOW
Fla Atl
Wisky
Miami
NC St
Vandy
LSU
So Carolina
Va Tech
Mississippi
Kentucky
Ohio St
Tulsa
5 UNIT PLAYS: If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units
5 Unit Money Line Plays:
Wake Forest
Arizona
TCU
No Ill
Houston
Oregon St
Clemson
UCONN
2 MORE ARE QUESTIONABLE:
** Alabama ---Huge moneyline to lay 5 Units - Be Careful
** Missouri ---------- MISSOURI PLAYED AN EXTRA GAME - THEY ARE 9-4 AND NORTHWESTERN IS 9-3 - NOT SURE IF THIS SHOULD BE COUNTED
Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams
THIS WENT 3-2 LAST YEAR
Michigan St
Penn St
Va Tech
Mississippi
Utah
Ohio St
Oklahoma
Oregon
*** Florida ( ????? ) THESE TWO TEAMS ( OLKAHOMA / FLORIDA ) ARE EITHER HIGHER OR LOWER RANKED THAN THEIR OPPONENT DEPENDING ON WHICH POLL YOU LOOK AT
Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams
THIS WENT 3-0 LAST YEAR
TCU
Oregon St
*** THESE TWO TEAMS BELOW ARE EITHER HIGHER OR LOWER RANKED THAN THEIR OPPONENT DEPENDING ON WHICH POLL YOU LOOK AT :
Oklahoma St ( ??? )
Missouri ( ???? )
A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team:
THIS WENT 6-1 LAST YEAR - NOT AS MANY OPPORTUNITIES THIS YEAR cry1
LSU
Tulsa
A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team
THIS WENT 1-1 LAST YEAR
Arizona
Teams that hit in more than one system without opposition hit a high percentage last year. Here they are:
ARIZONA
OREGON ST
LSU
MICH ST
PENN ST
VIRGINIA TECH
MISSISSIPPI
OHIO ST
TULSA
** ??? MISSOURI ( QUESTIONABLE IF THEY BELONGED ON EITHER SYSTEM)
Games that have one system or more for each side:
Oregon ( Twice ) -Oklahoma St ( Once )
Utah ( Once) - Alabama ( Once )
Oklahoma ( Twice ) - Florida ( Once )
RUNNING DOG SYSTEM ...23-9 LAST YEAR
This is a list of all of the best rushing teams in the bowl games. This system worked very well the last couple of years. The best scenario to look for is a team with the best rushing stats, with a good defense and getting the points etc.. This better "run" team info is based on (YPC gained vs opponents YPC allowed on offense & vice versa on defense).
The best rush teams hit at a pretty high clip of over 60%..But if you pick and choose here with the other qualifications I listed above like good defense or tougher schedules etc. then you could really clean up with this system
STOLEN / BORROWED FROM THE ORIGINATOR OF THE SYSTEM
I'm pretty much going to follow the same formula as I did last year. We had an outstanding bowl season with the running dogs. The better running teams in general were 22-10 SU and 23-9 ATS last year. But keep in mind that they aren't going to hit this well every year. In the 2006 bowl season the better running teams were 20-12 SU but only 18-14 ATS. So we have to be careful as we go, and to just remember that none of these Running Dogs are set in granite. The underdogs who had the better run numbers were 10-4 ATS last year. And 7-3 (71%) the season before. So that's why you really need to think hard before you go against a running dog. But at times we did last year. Remember the Arkansas/Missouri game. Arkansas had the much better run numbers and were the dogs in that game. But because of the other strong angles surrounding the game that went against Arkansas, I was on Missouri. So there will be exceptions to the rule. And I've already seen a couple running dogs that I will in all likihood be playing against.
Here is the list of running dogs for this year ( 10-4 ATS last year ):
Navy
** Colorado St. ----- THIS PICK HAS BEEN QUESTIONED FROM SOME MEMBERS THAT HAVE RUN THE # 's
BYU
Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic
Wisconsin (HUGE)
La Tech
Western Michigan
Oregon (HUGE-Better defense too)
Air Force
Nebraska
Ole Miss
Kentucky
Tulsa
dogs in bowl games that won the previous year are 23-12 ats, including 15-3 ats vs. an opponent that won 8 or less games last year....
Here would be the list of Dogs this year that won their bowl game last year:
Utah *
Fla Atl
BYU *
ECU *
Penn St
Oregon *
WVU *
LSU *
Tulsa *
2003-04 Season
Dogs of 7 or better(meaning +8......) went 7-3 ATS 70%
Favs of 6.5 or better(meaning -6,-5.5.....) went 9-6 ATS 60%
For a total of 16-9 ATS 64% winners
2004-05 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 7-2 ATS 78%
Favs of 6.5 or beter went 10-7 59%
For a total of 17-9 ATS 64% winners
2005-06 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 13-1 ATS 93%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 7-5 ATS 58%
For a total of 20-6 ATS 77% winners
2006-07 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 9-5 ATS 64%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 8-11 ATS 42%
For a total of 17-16 ATS 52% winners
2007-08 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 7-3 ATS 70%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 15-8 ATS 65%
For a total of 23-11 ATS 68% winners
Moneyline / Rankings etc.. System
This System went 33-14 last year !!!
** Some games overlapp and show up twice (Teams that hit in more than one system hit a high percentage last year) , other conflict and cancell each other out
2 Units-Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record
THIS IS THE WEAKEST OF THE BUNCH -- WENT 2-3 LAST YEAR
Maryland
W Michigan
Oregon
Minnesota
Mich St
Penn St
Oklahoma
3 Units and 5 Units
Bet the team with the worst season record for 3 Units if a dog.
If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units:
THIS SYSTEM WHEN 19-7 LAST YEAR:
3 UNIT PLAYS:
Bet the team with the worst season record for 3 Units if a dog.
Colo St
Memphis
So Miss
Notre Dame ----- ** WATCH THIS AS ITS CLOSE TO A PK NOW
Fla Atl
Wisky
Miami
NC St
Vandy
LSU
So Carolina
Va Tech
Mississippi
Kentucky
Ohio St
Tulsa
5 UNIT PLAYS: If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units
5 Unit Money Line Plays:
Wake Forest
Arizona
TCU
No Ill
Houston
Oregon St
Clemson
UCONN
2 MORE ARE QUESTIONABLE:
** Alabama ---Huge moneyline to lay 5 Units - Be Careful
** Missouri ---------- MISSOURI PLAYED AN EXTRA GAME - THEY ARE 9-4 AND NORTHWESTERN IS 9-3 - NOT SURE IF THIS SHOULD BE COUNTED
Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams
THIS WENT 3-2 LAST YEAR
Michigan St
Penn St
Va Tech
Mississippi
Utah
Ohio St
Oklahoma
Oregon
*** Florida ( ????? ) THESE TWO TEAMS ( OLKAHOMA / FLORIDA ) ARE EITHER HIGHER OR LOWER RANKED THAN THEIR OPPONENT DEPENDING ON WHICH POLL YOU LOOK AT
Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams
THIS WENT 3-0 LAST YEAR
TCU
Oregon St
*** THESE TWO TEAMS BELOW ARE EITHER HIGHER OR LOWER RANKED THAN THEIR OPPONENT DEPENDING ON WHICH POLL YOU LOOK AT :
Oklahoma St ( ??? )
Missouri ( ???? )
A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team:
THIS WENT 6-1 LAST YEAR - NOT AS MANY OPPORTUNITIES THIS YEAR cry1
LSU
Tulsa
A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team
THIS WENT 1-1 LAST YEAR
Arizona
Teams that hit in more than one system without opposition hit a high percentage last year. Here they are:
ARIZONA
OREGON ST
LSU
MICH ST
PENN ST
VIRGINIA TECH
MISSISSIPPI
OHIO ST
TULSA
** ??? MISSOURI ( QUESTIONABLE IF THEY BELONGED ON EITHER SYSTEM)
Games that have one system or more for each side:
Oregon ( Twice ) -Oklahoma St ( Once )
Utah ( Once) - Alabama ( Once )
Oklahoma ( Twice ) - Florida ( Once )
RUNNING DOG SYSTEM ...23-9 LAST YEAR
This is a list of all of the best rushing teams in the bowl games. This system worked very well the last couple of years. The best scenario to look for is a team with the best rushing stats, with a good defense and getting the points etc.. This better "run" team info is based on (YPC gained vs opponents YPC allowed on offense & vice versa on defense).
The best rush teams hit at a pretty high clip of over 60%..But if you pick and choose here with the other qualifications I listed above like good defense or tougher schedules etc. then you could really clean up with this system
STOLEN / BORROWED FROM THE ORIGINATOR OF THE SYSTEM
I'm pretty much going to follow the same formula as I did last year. We had an outstanding bowl season with the running dogs. The better running teams in general were 22-10 SU and 23-9 ATS last year. But keep in mind that they aren't going to hit this well every year. In the 2006 bowl season the better running teams were 20-12 SU but only 18-14 ATS. So we have to be careful as we go, and to just remember that none of these Running Dogs are set in granite. The underdogs who had the better run numbers were 10-4 ATS last year. And 7-3 (71%) the season before. So that's why you really need to think hard before you go against a running dog. But at times we did last year. Remember the Arkansas/Missouri game. Arkansas had the much better run numbers and were the dogs in that game. But because of the other strong angles surrounding the game that went against Arkansas, I was on Missouri. So there will be exceptions to the rule. And I've already seen a couple running dogs that I will in all likihood be playing against.
Here is the list of running dogs for this year ( 10-4 ATS last year ):
Navy
** Colorado St. ----- THIS PICK HAS BEEN QUESTIONED FROM SOME MEMBERS THAT HAVE RUN THE # 's
BYU
Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic
Wisconsin (HUGE)
La Tech
Western Michigan
Oregon (HUGE-Better defense too)
Air Force
Nebraska
Ole Miss
Kentucky
Tulsa
dogs in bowl games that won the previous year are 23-12 ats, including 15-3 ats vs. an opponent that won 8 or less games last year....
Here would be the list of Dogs this year that won their bowl game last year:
Utah *
Fla Atl
BYU *
ECU *
Penn St
Oregon *
WVU *
LSU *
Tulsa *
2003-04 Season
Dogs of 7 or better(meaning +8......) went 7-3 ATS 70%
Favs of 6.5 or better(meaning -6,-5.5.....) went 9-6 ATS 60%
For a total of 16-9 ATS 64% winners
2004-05 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 7-2 ATS 78%
Favs of 6.5 or beter went 10-7 59%
For a total of 17-9 ATS 64% winners
2005-06 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 13-1 ATS 93%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 7-5 ATS 58%
For a total of 20-6 ATS 77% winners
2006-07 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 9-5 ATS 64%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 8-11 ATS 42%
For a total of 17-16 ATS 52% winners
2007-08 Season
Dogs of 7 or better went 7-3 ATS 70%
Favs of 6.5 or better went 15-8 ATS 65%
For a total of 23-11 ATS 68% winners