12-20-08

[Mr. IWS]

dr bob
3 Star Selection
***Memphis 26 S. Florida (-12.5) 29 (at St. Petersburg Bowl)
01:30 PM Pacific, 20-Dec-08
While South Florida can be considered a home team here, with this game being played just a short drive from Tampa, I’m not sure that’s really an advantage. I just don’t see how a veteran South Florida team that had major bowl game aspirations will be fired up to play in a minor bowl game against an uninspiring opponent while not getting to go somewhere new and exciting. Big favorites in minor bowl games have always been bad bets and that is especially true of a team that had loftier goals. South Florida applies to a negative 1-19-3 ATS bowl big favorite letdown situation while Memphis has got to be fired up to make it to any bowl game after earning their way with a 6-6 record by winning 3 of their last 4 games. The Tigers apply to a 61-19-4 ATS minor bowl underdog angle as well as a 24-2 ATS bowl situation. The technical analysis is about as strong as it can get, so the next step is to check to make sure the line is fair.

Memphis is a an above average offensive team with Arkelon Hall at quarterback, as the Tigers run the ball pretty well (5.2 yards per rushing play in 11 games against Division 1A teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team) and Hall posted slightly better than average numbers (6.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback) while throwing just 7 interceptions on 304 pass attempts. Memphis had just one horrible offensive game (3.2 yards per play and 10 points against East Carolina), but Hall was knocked out of that game against the Pirates early in the first quarter and backup quarterback Will Hudgins was injured on the next series. Hall missed two more games after that one, but he’s healthy now and should post good numbers against a sub-par South Florida secondary that has allowed 6.3 yards per pass play to a slate of quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.8 yppp against an average defensive team. USF is very good defending the run (3.9 yprp allowed), but that will simply force Hall to throw more, which should enhance the Tigers’ attack.

What made Memphis a below average team this season was a defensive unit that allowed 6.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.1 yppl against an average team. The Tigers, however, were missing their two best defensive players for parts of the season, as star LB Greg Jackson (3 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss in 9 games) missed weeks 3 through 5 while top defensive lineman Clinton McDonald (7 sacks in 8.3 games) was injured early in week 7 and then missed the next 3 games. Memphis got a little worse against the run when Jackson was hurt and they became particularly vulnerable to the run when McDonald was lost for almost 4 games. Memphis was 1.1 yppl worse than average defensively for the season (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl), but they were only 0.6 yppl worse than average in 4 games in which Jackson and McDonald both played (after adjusting for the absence of Tulane’s top two offensive players). South Florida is a better than average offensive team (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team), but Memphis is underrated defensively and my math model projects just 33 points for USF in this game.

The math model favors South Florida by just 11 points even if I give them 1 ½ points for the semi-home field advantage and the situation is strongly in favor of the Tigers. I’ll take Memphis in a 3-Star Best Bet at +11 or more and for 2-Stars at +10 ½ or +10 points. I have no opinion on the total.

Navy 24 Wake Forest (-3.0) 21 (at EagleBank Bowl)
08:00 AM Pacific, 20-Dec-08
This game is a rare bowl game rematch of a regular season game, a 24-17 Navy win as a 16 ½ point underdog at Wake Forest. Wake Forest quarterback Riley Skinner threw an uncharacteristic 4 interceptions in that game (he threw just 3 total in the other 3 games), but Navy’s win was not a fluke. The Midshipmen averaged 5.5 yards per play in that game and ran for 305 yards at 5.4 yards per rushing play while Wake Forest managed just 4.4 yppl. Wake Forest is a very good defensive team, allowing just 4.7 yppl for the season against teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average opponent, but being good defensively does not mean that a tam is going to be good at defending the option and Wake Forest apparently isn’t very good at defending the option, which is common for an aggressive defense. The Demon Deacons’ aggressive play is usually to their advantage, but discipline is needed to defend the option, which is an offense designed to bridge the gap in talent. Navy’s offense works about the same regardless of the quality of the defense, as evidenced by the fact that they scored between 21 points and 34 points in 10 of their 11 games against Division 1A teams (and won 16-0 in the one game they didn’t reach 21 points). Navy’s option wasn’t as good as it was last year for much of the season, as veteran starting quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada played in just 5 games this season. Kaheaku-Enhada led the attack in Navy’s 34-0 win over Army in the final game of the regular season and he’ll be as healthy as he’s been all season for his final collegiate game. Not only is Kaheaku-Enhada a more efficient passer, but he reads defenses better than Bryant or Dobbs and the option is more effective when he’s at quarterback. Navy averaged 5.2 yards per rushing play against 11 Division 1A teams that would combine to allow 4.7 yprp to an average team (so they were 0.5 yprp better than average), but the Middies were 1.1 yprp better than average in the 5 games that Kaheaku-Enhada played – averaging 5.6 yprp against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team. With Kaheaku-Enhada at the controls I expect Navy to be able to move the ball just as well as they did in their earlier meeting with Wake Forest.

Navy’s only issue this season has been pass defense, as the Midshipmen have allowed 7.4 yards per pass play to a schedule of opposing quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average defensive team. Navy, however, did defense mediocre and below average quarterbacks very well and they held 6 of their 11 opponents below their average yards per pass play rating. Navy’s defensive pass stats were skewed by big numbers by good quarterbacks, including 11.6 yppp by Ball State’s Nate Davis, and 10.7 yppp by Temple’s Adam DiMichelle. Wake Forest’s Riley Skinner may not be good enough to take advantage of Navy’s occasional defensive lapses in the secondary, as Skinner averaged just 5.2 yppp this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback, including throwing for a modest 5.8 yppp in their loss to Navy. The Navy defense also got noticeably better down the stretch, as they allowed less than 5 yards per play in 4 of their final 5 games and finished the season with consecutive shutout wins. The Middies are good against the run (4.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.4 yprp) and Wake Forest is one of the worst running teams in the nation (3.7 yprp against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp), so it will be up to Skinner to carry the load and Navy is much better in pass defense when they don’t have to worry about stopping the run.

My math model favors Navy by 2 points with a total of 47 points with Kaheaku-Enhada at quarterback for the Midshipmen and Military Academies have a tendency to perform very well in bowl games (Army, Navy, and Air Force are a combined 21-7 ATS in bowls since 1980). Navy also tends to travel well, as they are an incredible 112-65-2 ATS in all road or neutral games since 1980, including covering 4 of their final 5 games away from home this season. Wake Forest, meanwhile, is just 10-17 ATS as a favorite under coach Jim Grobe (compared to 20-11 ATS as a dog), including 3-6 ATS laying points this season. In addition to the team trends Navy applies to a very good 39-7 ATS bowl games statistical match-up indicator and a 29-4-2 ATS statistical indicator. Unfortunately, Wake Forest applies to a 46-18-1 ATS bowl situation that will keep me from making this game a Best Bet.

I’ll consider Navy a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ or more.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 7* Major Mismatch-LV Bowl

Larry's won 3 straight Major Mismatch plays on MNF (Wks 12-14). Those games were similar to the LV Bowl in that the pointspread called for a close game, while Larry said "no way!" He won those Major Mismatch plays by the combined scores of 119-69! The pointspread says BYU/Ari will be close but Larry says "Major Mismatch." Who do you believe?

BYU Cougars



Larry's Las Vegas Insider: 1st of the bowls[/B

Larry and his "unmatched" contacts have surveyed the 34-game CFB bowl season and have isolated 3-to-5 plays as possible Las Vegas Insider releases. They are wasting no time "getting involved," as one of Saturday's games is Larry's 1st exclusive Las Vegas Insider of the 2008-09 bowl season. "It pays to be on the inside with Larry." Want in?


Wake Forest

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Saturday night winners

25-Dime Dallas Cowboys

5-Dime 10-Point Teaser: Navy, Memphis, Arizona

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with DALLAS. I won with the Cowboys in last week's win over the Giants and I feel that this is an excellent spot to back them again. Coming off a devastating and demoralizing loss at Pittsburgh, the Cowboys faced a must-win situation vs. the defending Super Bowl Champs last week. It would have been very easy for them to hang their heads and a lot of teams would have done so. However, the Cowboys showed some real character, going about their business like professionals. The defense was dominant, limiting the Giants to a mere 218 total yards (Dallas had 325) and just eight points, two of them on a safety. The offense did enough. Romo bounced back from a bad game at Pittsburgh to go 20 of 30 with for 244 yards and two touchdowns. While Dallas is off that momentum-building win, now it's Baltimore's turn to be the team which needs to bounce back from a devastating loss to the Steelers. I believe that will prove to be easier said than done. The Cowboys at least got to play at home, after their emotional loss vs. Pittsburgh, getting morale support from their fans. The Ravens have to do it alone on the road. Flacco has enjoyed a great first season. However, he's still a rookie and this is the biggest game of his life. Note that he was an ugly 11-of-28 for 115 yards and two interceptions last week. Facing a Dallas defense that is playing at an extremely high level, I expect him to struggle for the second straight week. Note that the Cowboys have 20 sacks over their past three games and that they lead the league with 53. The Ravens, 2-6 ATS the last eight times they were coming off a division loss, are 0-7 SU/ATS the last seven times that they've played a road game with an over/under line ranging from 38.5 to 42. Their struggles against quality teams on the road were evident in a 30-10 loss at New York and a 31-3 beating at Indianapolis. The Cowboys were 2-0 SU/ATS when playing a home game with a total ranging from 38.5 to 42. Looking back further and we find the Cowboys at a profitable 25-16-2 ATS their last 43 home games with a total in that range. They're getting healthy and I believe they're the stronger team. Look for them to build momentum off last week's big win and close out Texas Stadium with a big win and cover. *Non-Conf GOY






BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with WAKE FOREST. I waited to pull the trigger on this game, as I felt the line might come down. It has now done so at many books and I feel that we're getting excellent value with what I expect to prove to be a superior Wake Forest squad. Teams don't often get to face each other twice in the same season but that's the case for this year's first bowl game. Navy won 24-17 when these teams met back in September. While the Midshipmen will obviously be hungry to earn a bowl victory, the earlier loss should ensure that we also see an extremely motivated effort from the Demon Deacons, who otherwise may have been somewhat disappointed to be playing in lesser bowl game. Additionally, I feel that the experience of having already faced Navy's unique offense, coupled with the extra time which they've had to prepare for it, will prove to be a major benefit for this afternoon's rematch. The Deacons are a very experienced team and their seniors feel that they've got a point to prove in their final game. As cornerback Alphonso Smith said: "It's a great opportunity. We played them earlier this year in which we lost a game we thought we could have won. We didn't play as well, we didn’t play Wake Forest football." While the Midshipmen were 1-3 SU/ATS as road underdogs of four points or less this season, the Deacons have gone 5-1 SU/ATS as favorites of four points or less since the beginning of the 2007 season. Look for them to improve on those stats with a solid win and cover here. *Annihilator




BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT

I'm laying the small number with ARIZONA. Most teams would be thrilled to have gone 10-2 during the regular season. However, the Cougars had dreams of going undefeated, so their season has actually been a disappointment. Their two biggest games of the year came against Utah and TCU and they lost those by a combined score of 80-31, most recently a 48-24 loss at Utah in their regular season finale. While a bowl victory would certainly lessen the sting a little, most will still regard the season as a disappointment, no matter what happens this evening. Teams in that situation often have trouble in their bowl game, as the extra few weeks of practice time merely extends their disappointment. While the Cougars are most likely somewhat disappointed, after not having played in a bowl game in a decade, the Wildcats should be thrilled to be here. The Wildcats are healthy and have steadily improved as the season finished. While BYU was blown out in its final regular season game, Arizona blew out Arizona State in its final game. I believe that positive momentum will have served the Wildcats well during the last few weeks of practice. As coach Stoops said: "You always want to go into a bowl game with momentum. I think we accomplished that. We are moving forward as a program." Both teams have excellent quarterbacks and both bring similar stats to the table. Arizona averaged 37.1 points (37.2 on the road) while BYU averaged 35.3 (29.3 on the road) points. BYU allowed 21.2 points (31.2 on the road) and 350.7 yards. Arizona allowed 21.3 points but only 302.1 yards. The Wildcats have been strong under Stoops in recent seasons when having had extra time to prepare. They're 4-1 SU/ATS the last five times that they played a game after having had two or more weeks rest in between games. Looking back further and we find the Wildcats at 17-8 SU and 16-9 ATS the last 25 times that they were in that situation. I expect them to be the hungrier team and for that to lead to a win and cover. *Main Event








BEN BURNS

I'm playing on Memphis and South Florida to finish UNDER the number. This total has climbed a few points from its opening number and has gotten to the point where I now feel we're getting excellent value with the UNDER. Memphis has been solid offensively, averaging a respectable 28.2 points per game. However, the Tigers haven't been nearly as good offensively on the road, averaging only 22.8 points. Additionally, they haven't faced too many defenses in the class of the one that they'll see this afternoon. South Florida comes in allowing 20.5 points and 291 yards per game, including just 17.3 and 279 away from home. The Bulls have been particularly stingy against the run as they rank in the Top 10 in the country, allowing just 97.7 yards per game on an average of only 2.9 yards per carry. While Tigers' defense has been rather mediocre (26 points per game) for the season as a whole, they were much better on that side of the ball down the stretch. In their last game, they held Tulane to only six points and 222 total yards and over their last three games, they've held opponents to an average of just 255 total yards. Note that the Tigers have seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the 10.5 to 21 point range. Look for more of the same this afternoon as the UNDER moves to 4-0 the last four times that the Bulls played on turf. *Total of the Week

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al- EARLY RELEASE


Saturday morning

1* Navy

1* BYU

[Mr. IWS]

NESS' HOOPS

Larry's Daytime Dominator

Izzo has taken the Spartans to 11 straight NCAA tourneys and last year reached the Sweet 16, finishing with 27 wins. Rick Barnes has been consistently excellent at Texas, leading the Longhorns to 30 wins three years ago, won 25 games two years ago with player-of-the-year Kevin Durant and then last year (with Durant off to the NBA after one season), won 31 games before losing in the Elite 8 to Memphis. Michigan State (7-2) is facing Texas (9-1) for a third straight season, with the Spartans having won 63-61 in 2006 and 78-72 last year. Gone from LY's MSU team is PG Neitzel (13.9-4.0 APG) plus one-half of the team's 6-10 duo inside, Naymick (4.3-4.1). MSU's perimeter game is in good shape, with three freshman from LY, all stepping up as sophomores, plus senior Walton (6.8-2.7-3.0). Starting alongside of Walton is Lucas (11.0-6.8 APG), with Allen (12.1) and Summers (8.8) making big contributions as well. The 6-10 Suton has been sidelined for a good portion of the early going (missed all of five straight games) and his average is down from 9.1-8.2 to 4.3-4.3 in his limited playing time. The 6-11 Ibok has been starting but contributing almost nothing The 6-8 Raymar (16.9-4.9) is once again the team's leading scorer and best player and is joined in the starting frontcourt by 6-8 freshman, Roe (6.2-5.6). The 6-8 Gray (6.2-4.9) is a senior and he gives MSU decent size and depth inside. MSU is deeper than Texas but the Longhorns' starting-five is more talented. I sold Texas short vs Villanova at MSG earlier TY and paid for it, as Texas won, 67-58. They surely miss DJ Augustin but Abrams (20.9) is having an excellent year and backcourt partner Mason (7.8-4.4-5.6) is doing a little bit of everything. The 6-7 Mason (14.0-7.8) is best described as a 'beast' inside plus he joined by the 6-7 Johnson (8.4-6.4), who is now full speed after some health issues as a freshman, plus two 6-10 players. Atchley's numbers are down from 9.5-5.3 to 6.8-3.6 but he offers a unique combo, as he can block shots and make the three! While Atchley's numbers are down, Pittman is picking up the slack, as the big man who averaged only 2.8-2.4 last season, is up to averages of 8.6-4.0 TY. This game is in Houston not Austin but it's still a Texas venue (Toyota Center is the 'home' of the Rockets) and the Longhorns are playing with "double revenge." MSU was outclassed in its lone meeting this year with a ranked team, losing to No. 1 North Carolina 98-63 on Dec 3 in Detroit during the ACC/Big 10 Challenge. In late November in a tourney in Orlando, the Spartans could get no closer than 15 points in the final five minutes of an 80-62 loss to Maryland, before then beating Oklahoma St, a team well known for its poor play away from Stillwater. Meanwhile, Texas owns that impressive win over then-unbeaten Villanova back on Dec 9, five days after beating UCLA 68-64 on Dec 4 in Austin. The Longhorns' lone loss this year came by just one point to then-No. 8 Notre Dame on Nov 25, in the finals of the Maui Invitational. Expect Texas to take "two years of frustration" out on the Spartans in this one.

Daytime Dominator 15* Texas.


Larry's 20* Revenge G.O.M



Keno Davis, Dr Tom's little boy, took over for his dad at Drake last year and went 28-5, leading the Bulldogs to their first NCAA appearance since 1971. Keno "knows how the game is played" (he's surely not 'old school' like his dad) and used LY's 'magical run' to 'escape' Des Moines, for the 'greener pastures' of the Big East, taking over at tradition-rich Providence (if you've never heard of Jimmy Walker, Ernie D and "Bad News" Barnes, you are too young!). The Friars are an extremely deep team and enter this game 7-3. Sharoud Curry (15.3 two years ago) played just eight minutes last year, losing the season to a stress fracture in his foot. He's back healthy TY and while his scoring is way down (7.9-4.9 APG) his return is a big deal. Curry is typically joined in the starting lineup by the 6-4 McKenzie (6.0) and the 6-5 Efejuku (13.7-4.0) on the perimeter and the multi-talented 6-7 McDermott (8.2-8.0) and the 6-8 Kale (12.2-5.6) inside. However, lots of players get "in the act," most notably guards Brooks (13.1-4.0) and Xavier (9.2) plus the 6-11 Hanke (8.3-4.9). BC has opened 8-2, as it looks to bounce back from a 14-17 season, its first losing record since 2000. The Eagles had two excellent years after joining the ACC, winning 28 games in their first year in and 21 two years ago, while making the school's fourth straight NCAA appearance. BC is led by guard Rice (15.2-3.4-5.6) although his scoring is down from 21.0 last year. Two 6-5 players are having solid seasons, Raji (12.2-6.3) and Sanders (11.2-4.9) plus 6-8 Vermont transfer Trapani (13.5-7.0) has become the team's best inside player. The 6-10 Southern (5.6-6.1) is making excellent strides as a sophomore and freshman guard Jackson (6.9) is becoming a regular contributor. The Eagles lost at St Louis 53-50 and then to ranked Purdue in the NIT semis, 71-64. BC bounced back in the consolation game to beat a good UAB team (83-77) and takes a 9-2 mark into this game, having won five straight. Meanwhile, the Friars lost two of three games in an Anaheim tourney in late November, beating Charlotte but losing to both Baylor and St Mary's These teams meet last year at Boston's Banknorth Garden, with Providence coming away with a 98-89 win. The Friars made 12-of-23 three-pointers in that game but with the longer line this year, Providence has gone from making 37.6 percent of its threes LY to 28.3 TY. It's also worth noting that this is Providence's lone road game from Dec 3 all the way to Jan 7 at Cincinnati. Keno's dad used to coach at BC and Al Skinner, BC's highly successful current coach, may just remind him of that as the Eagles "put a whipping" on the Friars, gaining some sweet revenge from LY's loss in Boston.

Revenge Game of the Month 20* Boston College.



Larry's Bailout Blowout

New Mex St won 25 games and made an NCAA appearance two years ago and head coach Reggie Theus used that season as a 'springboard' to get an NBA head coaching gig with the Kings (I wonder how that worked out for ol' Reg?). The Aggies won 21 games last year but lost four senior starters from that team, who combined to average 45.4 PPG and 24.2 RPG. The team also lost LY's highly-touted (and troubled) 6-8 freshman Herb Pope (11.1-6.8), who transferred to Seton Hall. Gibson (12.2 LY) is the lone returning starter from LY and he's averaging 16.0 PPG this year, teaming in the backcourt with Young, who averaged 10.5 PPG as a freshman but is averaging 16.8-3.8-3.3 to open this year. Laroche (5.0), Castillo 93.4) and 6-6 swingman Lumpkins (4.6) give the perimeter depth. Inside, two freshman, the 6-8 Gillenwater (14.8-4.7) and the 7-0 Rahman (6.1-4.7) are joined by 6-6 sophomore McKines (13.7-8.7). As for UTEP, the Miners have two terrific perimeter players in 6-5 senior Jackson (22.6-6.7) and sophomore guard Culpepper, who is averaging 20.6 PPG (up from 12.8 LY as a freshman). PG Stone (5.4-4.1-6.2) completes an excellent three-guard rotation, with 7-0 Memphis transfer Cooper (6.8-4.9) and the 6-7 Moultrie (9.4-7.2) adding more than enough size and muscle to contend with the Aggies' frontline. Throw in the 6-11 Britten (4.9-2.6) and third-year head coach Tony Barbee's team is more than capable of avenging last Sunday's 90-79 loss to the aggies in Las Cruses. The Aggies shot 54.9 percent in that game while the Miners made only 42.6 percent. More importantly, New Mex St had 37 FT attempts (made 29), with the Miners getting only 18 (made 12). Expect a "reversal of those fortunes" here in El Paso. New Mex St has yet to win away from home, opening 0-4 SU in road games this year. While the Miners are off to a disappointing 5-4 start, I was "all over" them in the team's 96-78 win this past Wednesday at home over Texas Tech. Jackson had 28 and Culpepper had 27 in that win and here's how I closed the write-up to that game. "A win here (meaning vs TT) and another "revenge win" this Saturday in El Paso vs New Mex St (lost last Sunday to the Aggies 90-78 in Las Cruces) could jump start this season. Barbee won only 14 games in his first season at UTEP but went 19-14 last year. UTEP was only able to garner a CBI bid last year but this year's aspirations are much higher. I believe this team is capable of 20-plus wins (easily) and an NIT bid should be a 'lock,' while NCAA 'bubble' consideration is a possibility. If I'm right, an impressive win tonight is in the cards." I was "right on the money" with that call (UTEP won 96-78) and I expect it to be deja vu all over again, tonight.

Bailout Game of the Month 15* UTEP.

[Mr. IWS]

Root
cHAIRMAN-navy
mill-byu
moneymaker-colost

[Mr. IWS]

Root's hoops card today...

Chairman- Portland Pilots
Millionaire- Drake
No Limit- UNLV

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness Weekend Wipeout Winner- NBA

Big things were expected in Toronto this year but the Raptors have already fired their head coach and after last night's embarrassing 91-82 loss to the Thunder in Oklahoma City. the Raptors enter this game in San Antonio with the Spurs, at 10-16. They are not only 14 1/2 games behind the Celtics but they are also dead-last in the Atlantic behind the Nets, 76ers and Knicks (ouch!). The Thunder came in having lost 11 in a row at home and with an NBA-worst 2-24 overall mark. Where do the Raptors go from here? The Spurs won't be looking to show any mercy in this game, as they have dropped two straight since winning a season-high six straight from Dec 4-14. After averaging 106.1 PPG during that winning streak, The spurs shot just 38.1 percent in losing 90-83 at New Orleans on Wednesday and 90-78 at Orlando on Thursday. However, let's note that the Hornets and Magic are a combined 35-13 (.729) and this game with the Raptors opens a stretch in which the Spurs will play five of their next six games at home, all against opponents which own sub-.500 records. Bosh (23.6-10.0) and PG Calderon (13.0-9.0 APG) are quality players but the team is worried about O'Neal's (12.6-7.3) health, as he's listed as questionable for this game with a shoulder injury (so what else is new?). The Raptors are an excellent shooting team from the perimeter but the Spurs' D is coming along after a poor start, with the team now allowing just 93.6 PPG (6th-best). Duncan (20.8-10.7) is back averaging over 20 points (LY he was under 20 for just the 2nd time in his first 11 years), Parker (20.4-6.3 APG) is right behind him and Ginobili (15.2-4.5-3.5) is coming around nicely off his ankle surgery. Toronto enters this game having lost four straight (0-4 ATS) and is 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS since Jay Triano replaced Sam Mitchell as coach on Dec 3. The Raptors have averaged 91.9 PPG and have failed to score 90 in four of those nine games, including the last three. The Spurs have won 12 of the last 16 meetings with the Raptors and SIX of the last seven here in San Antonio. The Spurs are looking a big win and the Raptors will play the perfect foil.

Weekend Wipeout Winner on the SA Spurs.

[Mr. IWS]

ppp

4 navy
3 dallas

[Mr. IWS]

spritzer

navy
byu
ravens
memphis

[Mr. IWS]

PPP Hoops:

5* Texas Tech
4* Miami-Oh
4* Xavier
3* Temple
3* Iowa
3* So Illinois
3* Arkansas St

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob
2 Star Selection
Houston (-7 ½) over TOLEDO
20-Dec-08 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Tom Penders is doing his usual good job of coaching this year and once again has the Cougars exceeding expectations with a 6-1 record (6 wins since losing their opener) and a 4-1 ATS mark (4-0 since game 1). Toledo was a bad offensive team last season and the 4 returning starters and new players are struggling again this year in new coach Gene Cross’ motion offense. The Rockets have about twice as many turnovers (19.6 per game) as they do assists (10.4 asg), which is not a good sign and they’ll have trouble scoring against Houston’s good defense (36.5% shooting allowed). My ratings favor Houston by 10 ½ points and the Cougars apply to a 55-18-4 ATS road momentum situation. Toledo has played better at home than they have on the road since last season, but Houston is 9-4 ATS as a road favorite and 17-6 ATS visiting a team coming off a loss during Penders’ tenure. I’ll take Houston in a 2-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less.
2-Stars at -8 points or less.

3 Star Selection
Jacksonville State (+6) over IOWA STATE
20-Dec-08 06:00 PM Pacific Time
I had Jacksonville State on my underrated/improved list early in the season and I watched as the Gamecocks started the season 4-0 ATS with 3 straight up wins as dogs (2 as double-digit dogs). I did write them up as an opinion in their win at Tenn. Tech and I finally decided to pull the trigger on the Gamceocks as a Best Bet on Wednesday night at UAB and they played by far their worst game of the season in a 48-75 loss. My rating on the Gamecocks is lower now after adding that game but Jacksonville State is still significantly better than Iowa State and the loss to UAB has given us great line value here. Prior to getting whipped at UAB the Gamecocks had covered all 4 of their road games while winning 3 of those 4 lined games on the road as underdogs. Even after their bad shooting night in Birmingham (3 for 17 on 3-pointers), Jacksonville State still had made 39% of their 3-pointers for the season and shoots 46.3% overall from the field and I expect their shooting to return to normal tonight. The Gamecocks stack up pretty well against Iowa State, as Jacksonville State has out-scored their 7 Division 1 opponents by an average margin of 4.4 points against a schedule that is 2.4 points better than Iowa State’s rating. Iowa State has out-scored their opponents by 5.4 points, but they’ve faced a schedule that is 7.8 points easier than Jacksonville State’s schedule. So, the Cyclones are 6.8 points worse than Jacksonville State has been so far this season based on scoring margins and strength of schedule, as the Gamecocks’ scoring margin is only 1.0 point worse than Iowa State’s despite playing a schedule that is 7.8 points tougher (strength of schedule includes the fact that JV State has played 6 of their 7 games on the road while ISU has played 6 of 9 games at home). My ratings actually rate Jacksonville State at about 4 ½ points better than Iowa State, which would mean that the line on this game should be a pick with home court advantage being about 4.2 points. I also like the fact that all 6 of Iowa State’s victories this season have come against teams that are at least 8 points worse than Jacksonville State and their 3 losses have come against teams (Hawaii, Drake and Iowa) whose average rating is 1 point worse than Jacksonville State’s rating. Iowa State hasn’t proven that they can beat a team as good as Jacksonville State and the Gamecocks’ only 2 losses have come to good teams South Carolina and UAB (both on the road) while they’ve beaten a team better than Iowa State (they won at U Mass). I’ll take Jacksonville State in a 3-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 2-Stars at +5 ½ or +5 points.
3-Stars at +6 or more, 2-Stars at +5 1/2 or +5.

[Mr. IWS]

ppp football

5 mem
4 navy, byu
3 cowboys, fresno st

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al added

3* on bost coll cbb
3* memphis cbb