12-22-08

[Mr. IWS]

::clover::

[Mr. IWS]

RAS side plays... cold as ice!


#749 Boise St. +10'... 1 Unit

#752 LB St. +7 ... 1'

#776 CS Fullerton -8 ... 1

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND’S 5* PACKERS VS. BEARS WINNER!

Pick # 1 Green Bay Packers (4.0)




RON RAYMOND’S BOISE ST. VS. SAN DIEGO STATE WINNER!
Pick # 1 Boise State (9.5)


RON RAYMOND’S CREIGHTON VS. FRESNO STATE WINNER!
Pick # 1 Fresno State (12.5 )



RON RAYMOND’S 5* PORTLAND VS. DENVER WINNER!
Pick # 1 Denver Nuggets (-3.5)




RON RAYMOND’S 5* NBA O/U GAME OF THE NIGHT
Pick # 1 Sacramento Kings / San Antonio Spurs Over 198 -110



RON RAYMOND'S 3-GAME NHL PROLINE PICK PACK

Pick # 1 Atlanta Thrashers (-125)


Pick# 2 Buffalo Sabres (-115)

Pick # 3 Anaheim Ducks (125)

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo NCAA hoops. Been pretty miserable lately. Enjoy:

2-Unit Play. Take #715 Marquette (-2) over N.C. State (7 p.m., Monday, Dec. 22)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #733 Florida Atlantic (+17) over UAB (8 p.m., Monday, Dec. 22)

2-Unit Play. Take #741 Utah (+4.5) over Utah State (9 p.m., Monday, Dec. 22)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #754 USC (-7) over Georgia Tech (10:30 p.m., Monday, Dec. 22)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #771 Chattanooga (+12.5) over Alabama (7 p.m., Monday, Dec. 22)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #749 Boise State (+10.5) over San Diego (10 p.m., Monday, Dec. 22)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #763 DePaul (Pk) over St. Louis (8 p.m., Monday, Dec. 22)

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton

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10 Dime: PACKERS (plus the points vs. Bears)
5 Dime: GRIZZLIES (plus the points vs. Lakers)
Packers
Here’s what this play comes down to: After what you’ve seen the last two days in the NFL, are you willing to lay points with a team that needs to win to either enhance its playoff chances or save its season? Well, I’m not. Let’s review what happened on Saturday and Sunday:
The Cowboys were a 4½-point home favorite against the Ravens, with Dallas controlling its playoff destiny. Result: Cowboys lose 33-24.
The Steelers were a three-point road favorite at Tennessee, needing a win to basically wrap up home-field advantage in the AFC. Result: Steelers lose 31-14.
The Eagles were a 5½-point road favorite at Washington, with Philly controlling its playoff destiny. Result: Eagles lose 10-3.
The Vikings were a three-point home favorite against the Falcons, needing a win to clinch the NFC North title. Result: Vikings lose 24-17.
The Jets were a four-point road favorite at the lowly Seahawks, needing a win to maintain control of their destiny in the AFC East. Result: Jets lose 13-3.
The Broncos were a 6½-point home favorite against the slumping Bills, needing a win to wrap up the AFC West title. Result: Broncos lose 30-23.
Finally, the Buccaneers were a four-point home favorite against the Chargers, needing a win to keep their postseason hopes alive. Result: Bucs lose 41-24.
That’s right: An astounding seven teams with everything in the world for which to play suffered outright losses as a favorite! And while the Ravens, Titans, Falcons and Chargers also had a lot on the line in their respective games against the Cowboys, Steelers, Vikings and Bucs, the fact is the favorites failed to get the job done in each contest. In fact, favorites went 5-8 SU and 4-9 ATS on Sunday, and the only favorites that came through this week were the Colts (barely won at 5-9 Jacksonville on Thursday), Dolphins (barely won at 2-11 Kansas City), Patriots (routed Arizona in the snow) and Giants (needed a big rally and overtime to knock off Carolina at home).

All of which brings us back to tonight’s game. With the Vikings losing yesterday, the door was left open for the Bears to snatch away the NFC North championship if they can beat the Packers tonight and win at Houston next week and if Minnesota falls at the Giants. And frankly, I’m not convinced Chicago, which has been inconsistent all season, is ready to deal with that pressure. Don’t forget that the Bears, with their backs to the wall in terms of the playoffs, nearly blew that home game to the Saints 10 days ago.

Now, one thing I am convinced of: Green Bay absolutely WILL show up for this game. Yes, the Packers are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games, a nosedive that eliminated them from playoff contention. However, the last three losses were by margins of 4, 3 and 4 points, as Green Bay simply failed to hold leads against the Panthers, Texans and Jaguars. And prior to this drought, the Packers had covered in five straight games. Four of those spread-covers were as an underdog. The fifth? A 37-3 demolition of the Bears as a 3½-point home favorite back on Nov. 16. In that game – which also happens to be Green Bay’s only victory in the last seven weeks – the Packers had 427 total yards, Chicago had 234; the Packers had 200 rushing yards, Chicago had 83; the Packers had 24 first downs, Chicago had nine; and the Packers held the ball for 37½ minutes, Chicago had it for 22½ minutes.

Also, despite their recent struggles to cover pointspreads, the Packers are still 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games on the road, 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 as a road underdog, and they’ve cashed in all five of their NFC North games this season! As for the Bears, with last week’s lucky push against the Saints, they’re now just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite and 2-3 ATS against division rivals this year. Oh, and one more thing: Green Bay is 7-2 ATS in its last nine trips to Soldier Field!

Simply put, I believe the Packers are far better than their 5-9 record, but just haven’t had any kind of fourth-quarter luck whatsoever, as six of their last seven defeats have come by four points or less. They also have not been able to stop the run on defense, allowing 138.2 rushing ypg. However, as noted above, they were able to stop Chicago in the first meeting. Also, tonight they catch a break in that Bears rookie RB Matt Forte (64 rushing yards in the loss at Green Bay) is questionable with an injury.

Bottom line: If I thought for a second that the Packers were going to lay down in this game, I wouldn’t touch ‘em with a 10-foot pole. But there’s no doubt in my mind that Green Bay will come to play and would love nothing more than to put a nail in their archrival’s season. And with the way the Packers thumped the Bears five weeks ago, and with the way NFL favorites have fared this week, I have to take the points.

Was hot last week, very poor this last weekend.

[Mr. IWS]

Billy Coleman

5* Houston - 4 ( Game of the Month )
4* Denver -3.5
3* Toronto +2.5
3* LA-Memphis over 203.5
College
4* Utah + 4
3* Indiana -2.5

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Financial pick for Monday night is

3 Units on the OVER in Green Bay/Chicago

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

NFL Football
Packers/Bears Under 40
Tonight's game is going to be bitter cold. Kickoff temperature is going to be around 3 degrees. Not fun! Chicago has injuries in their running game and I do not see them generating much offense tonight. The Packers are out of the playoffs and would love to spoil hopes for the Bears, but the Chicago defense is awesome and in these conditions I just do not see much offense from either team. This game will be won by who comes up with the big turnover. Look for a low scoring game. Take the Under.

College Football
No plays today.

NBA Basketball
Nets +5.5 over Rockets

NCAA Basketball
Western Michigan +8.5 over Southern Illinois

[Mr. IWS]

JB
2* Memphis
2* Clippers

[Mr. IWS]

LENNY STEVENS
10 green bay

pass basketball

[Mr. IWS]

M@linsky

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4* Green Bay +4

4* Memphis Griz +10.5

4* Cornell +9.5

[Mr. IWS]

DOC

3-Unit Play #712 Take LA Clippers Over Toronto (10:30 p.m. EST, Monday) The best think to happen for Clippers backers was their shellacking at the hands of the Bucks on Saturday. If they had been competitive or even won we think this line would be larger. We think that the main reason they struggled was that they were road weary and had played a physically and emotionally draining Double OT game against the Pacers the night before. Saturday’s game aside, this Clippers team is improving rapidly and the addition of Zach Randolph has been key to the resurgence. LA has won and covered in four of their last six overall. Toronto comes to LA having dropped five straight games and they have had lots of trouble scoring points, averaging only 89 PPG during that span



DOC

3 Unit Play. #42 Take Chicago Bears over Green Bay Packers (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Packers are done and continue to get to much respect for this disappointing year. They have a terrible defense and an offense that does not make many big plays. The Bears still have a punchers chance of making the playoffs and cannot afford a slip-up in this contest @ Soldier Field. The Bears have had success against the Packers recently winning five of the last seven meetings. The Bears defense will shutdown Rogers and company as we collect in the process with both the side and the total. Chicago 20, Green Bay 13.

3 Unit Play. #42 Take Under in Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN)

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp Double Dime Utah St -3.5

[Mr. IWS]

KELSO

Monday, December 22, 2008


10 units Bears (-4) over Packers
8:30 PM -- Soldier Field
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the West at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 10.


10 Units Packers/Bears UNDER 40 Points
8:30 PM -- Soldier Field
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the West at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 10.


5 Units Monday Night Side Total Parlay
Play a 5-Unit Parlay of the Bears and the Under
Bears (-4) over Packers
Packers/Bears UNDER 40 Points

[Mr. IWS]

EXPERT: Ted Sevransky / TEDDY COVERS

TITLE: Red Hot NBA Run Rolls On
REASON FOR PICK: We cashed an easy winner on Friday Night betting the Nets and Mavs Over the total as the Nets hung 121 on Dallas, and the game flew Over by 20 points. There’s absolutely no reason to expect anything different here. Here’s what I wrote about New Jersey on Friday:


“The Nets have been struggling of late, because opposing teams have been able to slow them down. When the Nets were pulling off one upset after the next prior to this recent skid, point guard Devin Harris was pushing the pace at every opportunity, and the Nets ranked among the NBA leaders in fast break points. The numbers don’t lie. In eight of the Nets last ten wins, they’ve scored at least 105 points. In seven of the ten, they scored 112 or more. The teams that have been beating New Jersey have successfully slowed them down. The Nets have been held to 94 or less in nine of their twelve defeats.


“Clearly, we can see the impact of pace on the Nets results, a team that simply cannot get bogged down in a half court game if they expect to emerge victorious. And, after struggling for the last ten days or so, we can expect head coach Lawrence Frank to instruct his team to get up and down the floor tonight, taking advantage of the quickness edge that Devin Harris enjoys.”


Houston has a reputation as a sluggish offensive ballclub, but that reputation is based on past results, with virtually no validity here in 2008. Again, the numbers don’t lie. Houston ran with Minnesota on Saturday in a game that went Over the total by 19 points. They ran with Sacramento prior to that, as well as Denver. In two recent games against the ultra-fast paced Warriors, the Rockets hung 119 and 131 on Golden State in a pair of games that went Over the total by at least 15 points apiece. And with Aaron Brooks taking over at the point guard position for the injured Rafer Alston, the Rockets offense is actually more efficient in recent ballgames – Brooks wants to run every bit as much as Harris does. 4* Take the Over.

[Mr. IWS]

Brian Edwards

Green Bay at Chicago
Play: Chicago -4

I'm on my guaranteed play for the total a lot heavier (amount-wise) than this wager on the side. Nevertheless, I do recommend getting some action on the Bears, who have won five of their last six home games. Four of those wins have come by four points or more which is what we're laying here. Green Bay mailed it in weeks ago, so let's fade 'em in this spot.


Green Bay at Chicago
Play: Over 40

The 'over' has hit at a money-making 5-2 clip for Chicago in its home games. The 'over' has also been a money maker for the Packers, posting an 8-5-1 overall record and a 4-2-1 mark in their road games. The 'over' is 2-1 in the last three head-to-head meetings between these long-time rivals as they have combined for at least 40 points in all three of those games. Both teams are accustomed to the cold-weather conditions. Give me the 'over.'

[Mr. IWS]

seabass

50* gb
20* nj nets
20* wake
20* nc st
30* van under 5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass 100 Steam: Troy CBB

[Mr. IWS]

PICK: Green Bay Packers
Your pick will be graded at: 4.5 betED
EXPERT: Stephen Nover
TITLE: Game of the Year
REASON FOR PICK: Some non-playoff teams are dead. You don't want to touch them. The Green Bay Packers aren't one of those clubs even though their record is 5-9.

No, the Packers aren't going to the playoffs. That's obviously a huge disappointment for a team that came within an overtime of reaching the Super Bowl last year.

But the Packers will play hard in this Monday night game against their long-time division rival the Chicago Bears. This is Green Bay's Super Bowl game.

The Packers aren't nearly as good as last season. Injuries, lack of veteran leadership and bad breaks have done them in. However, they aren't nearly as bad as their record may indicate.

Green Bay actually has outscored its opponents by 32 points. Opponents have gained just 14 more yards than the Packers and only two more first downs.

Green Bay has been in every game. The Packers beat Indianapolis and should have defeated Tennessee (losing in overtime) and Carolina. Green Bay's record is misleading because it has lost six games by four points or fewer.

The Packers destroyed the Bears, 37-3, when they met five weeks ago. The Bears are just mediocre.

Quarterback Kyle Orton hasn't been the same since injuring his right ankle. His quarterback rating was 90.8 before the injury. It is 63.4 in the five games since coming back. His mobility also has been hampered.

In addition, star rookie running back Matt Forte may be limited because of a toe injury.

The Bears will have trouble throwing on a tough Packers secondary featuring All-Pros Charles Woodson and Nick Collins. The flip side is the Bears won't be able to stop Green Bay's passing attack. They couldn't handle Green Bay's excellent receivers during the first meeting and nothing has changed.

The Packers certainly wouldn't be bothered by bad weather. In fact, bad weather is usually a plus for a 'dog getting more than a field goal. Green Bay loves to play at Solider Field.

The Packers are 12-2 in their last 14 visits to Chicago, including 10-4 against the spread.

This is a 10-star rating, my highest of the season. I'm playing this in mid-week while there are still a few plus 4 1/2's out. At plus 4, the Packers would hold a nine-star rating. The Packers are a great play at any price because I expect them to win straight-up.

I've made a huge play on Green Bay with the points and on the money-line.

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club
4 Bears -4
4 Utah St. -3.5
3 Bowling Green -8.5

ATS Financial Package
3 Over 40 Bears/Packers
3 Seton Hall
3 Magic

[Mr. IWS]

indiancowboy


4 Unit Play. #726. Take East Carolina Pirates +9 over Wake Forest. (Saturday @ 7pm est). This is our Underdog GOW.



7-1 NFL Run and 3-0 NFL Week.



Yesterday: 3-2



Loyola Maryland +6.5 Over UC Davis (Outright Winner)

Tennessee Titans +2 over Steelers (Outright Winner)

Giants -3 over Panthers (Winner)

Southern Miss/Troy State: (Loss)

Mavs/Wizards Over (Loss)



Every day is an opportunity for us to cash and it's fun to make a statement on what the title and premise of each of our games is. After all, we only make one such play in both CBB and NBA so there is thought that goes into each and consequently, we call the a play with a particular theme. Such is the case here with our Underdog GOW which comes off the heels of Loyola Maryland Winning Outright at UC-Davis. Look, I love Underdogs and that is where I have made my mark and that includes the Titans over the Steelers Outright this weekend as we are on a 7-1 NFL Run. There is a lot that goes into this game from the fact that East Carolina is a very good team that is ranked in the top 100 that comes off a loss to NC State. Remember, East Carolina should have covered that game but failed to do so as they went ice cold on the road in the last several minutes. Well, they play another NC team today and that is in Wake and in particular, they play them in their house catching 9 points at that. Heck, this is a game that East Carolina can certainly win outright. Why can I make such a bold statement such as that? Well, keep in mind that East Carolina is ranked higher than Richmond. Wake beat Richmond on the road by 7 and Richmond is nowhere near talented as East Carolina is who has defeated the likes of top 70 VCU at home in overtime and lost to top 90 George Mason at home by 6 points. Remember, I faded Wake at Richmond at +8 with the Spiders as a home dog as a top 120 team. Why would I not take East Carolina at home +9 as the better team, as a home dog, coming off a loss to another ACC team just in their previous game? How about the fact that in both of East Carolina's losses they have come by margins of 6 at home to George Mason and 11 on the road to NC State. This is game once again that East Carolina can hang very tough at home as if Wake thought playing at the Richmond Spiders was tough, they will go into a house that is much tougher to play and with far more talent on the floor. Combine that with the fact that East Carolina comes off a tough loss to another ACC Rival in NC State on the road, I look for the Pirates to play very tough here today. East Carolina is 6-0 at home, Wake is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and East Carolina is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games against winning teams as they get up for the better teams at home and likely cover if not win straight up.


NBA (POD): 4 Unit Play. Take Over 197.5 between Houston Rockets @ New Jersey Nets (Monday @ 7:35pm est). We have several things working in our favor here. For starters, over 69% of the public are riding Houston here after their recent win at Minnesota as they covered the spread winning by 7 and the Nets home loss to the Heat. Keep in mind that the Nets were coming off a big win over the Mavs at home which was a big game for Devin Harris and company based on the recent trades these two teams just had. Of course, Devin Harris showed up and outshined kid by scoring 40+ points and having 13 assists in the process. As per this game, note that NJ comes off that tough loss and look to bounce-back here. The Nets have had no problem scoring points in particular when they have motivation coming off a previous loss. Also, when the Rockets get taken to the edge early and are in a competitive game, games go over. The last four of five have been such the case with the Rockets as for example the game against the Grizzlies in which they were an active dog went over, the game against the Twolves who for all intense purposes were an active dog at home went over, they were at GS where the game sailed over and of course, they were at Denver in an outright loss and that game too sailed over as the Nuggs were great competition that night. In that same spirit, the Nets will be great competitors tonight coming off such a loss. I'm not saying to bet against the Rockets here, but let's bet on the Nets to make this game competitive as the push this total over and I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see an outright win for the Nets, but more importantly, we expect to see an over. Remember, we want 25 points in each quarter per team as that is the magic number to keep pace for the 200 mark. The over is 4-0 for the Rockets when they are favored by this margin on the road and the over is 7-3 for the Nets following an ATS loss

[Mr. IWS]

Special K

20* Golden St

[Mr. IWS]

Special K 20* NBA

GS +12.5

College

Indiana -1.5

Free pick

marquette -1

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | NFL Total Triple-Dime Bet
132 CHI / 131 GBP Under 41.0 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis:
*** NFL MNF 3* BEST BET of the DAY ***



Mon, 12/22/08 - 8:35 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
131 GBP 4.5 (-110) Bodog vs 132 CHI
Analysis: ** NFL MNF 2* WAGER

(BUY the 1/2 to UNDER 41...If we have to...see below)



Although it's still extremely early, I didn't want to wait to get the Bet out, because the only question that remained, is what is the Best Number that we will be able to go UNDER...



At the moment, the majority of shops are using 40 and 40.5...and with 41 being such a KEY TOTAL in the NFL...we will have no problem laying the 10 cents more if we have to in order to get it...

Although because ALL of the Books that I spoke to when I made my rounds through the Sportsbooks here in town...along with EVERY local that I work with...have ALL been getting a lot of work on the OVER...In fact, it is by far the most 1 sided wager that they are booking this evening...And that is just fine by us, because we feel that there is a lot of Value in the UNDER Tonight, and the better the number, the better the chance of Cashing...



So we are going to wait it out and see if maybe we can even DO BETTER because when the books made this significant of a move on the SNF Total...they ended up getting Burned as the Betting Public, again took the Over and got a much better number than they should have...Since the Outfits were sitting it out and instead taking a position on the Side...

That tells me that we just may see them go ahead and adjust the Total more to represent the actual Money Being Bet....Rather than where they feel it should be, to avoid getting hit by the "sharps"...who are obviously always looking for reasons to go Under...knowing you are already getting a few points of an edge based on the shading towards the Over....which has to be done since the Betting Public prefers it greatly, when compared to the Under...



At 41, it has reached what I had set for my "Fair Line"...Thinking that since this is a MNF Match-Up, and the Trend has supported the Over this Year...then it's justified for the Oddsmakers to send it out to the Books slightly higher than what it should be...And I made my "True Line" 38...So you can see why I feel that we are really getting our money in, while getting the best of it...by going UNDER...I just wished that the weather this past weekend hadn't forced the adjustment from the Opening Line of as high as 44...



So let's go ahead and see if we can make it #6 in a Row for 3* BEST BET Winners...and improve on our current "13-2" run on 3*s....By making the UNDER ??? (the best possible number prior to kick-off) our NFL MNF 3* BEST BET...VR

[Mr. IWS]

atslocks.com

Packers @ Bears -4: Bears -4 (10 unit play)

Magic/Warriors Over/Under 218: Over 218 (5 unit play)

Western Michigan +8.5 (5 unit play)