12-22-08

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

20* Monday Night Game of the Month

The Packers destroyed the Bears at Green Bay in Week 11, routing Chicago 37-3. The Bears hardly looked like a playoff-caliber team in that game, surrendering 30 unanswered points, allowing a season-high 200 rushing yards and Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers was 23-of-30 for 227 with two TDs and one INT (had a 105.8 QB rating). Meanwhile, Bears QB Kyle Orton had an awful game (133 YP), including a fumbled snap that was returned for a 54-yard TD in the fourth quarter. Adding insult to injury, Orton was pulled for Rex Grossman. The Green Bay win left both the Packers and Bears at 5-5. However, look what's happened since. The Packers have 'imploded' (0-4 SU and ATS), while the Bears have won THREE of four. Chicago's playoff hopes also got a huge boost these last couple of days, as the Cowboys lost on Saturday with Minnesota, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay all losing yesterday. A win here and next week at Houston and the Bears could be in the postseason. Let me first say that Green Bay's woes have little to do with Aaron Rodgers. He enters the final two games of the season (his first as a starter), having completed 63.7 percent for 3,470 yards with 23 TDs and 12 INTs. Let me remind everyone that before Favre's terrific 2007 season, his QB rating in 2005 was 70.9 (20 TDs / 29 INTs) and 72.7 in 2006 (18 TDs / 18 INTs). Favre led the Jets to an 8-3 start TY but they've now lost THREE of four and Favre's (84.0 rating with 21 TDs and 19 INTs) not having a better season than Rodgers this year! The Green Bay defense has just fallen apart these last four games, allowing 32.5 PPG. The rush D has been an issue all season (138.2 YPG / 4.8 YPC) but after ranking among the league's top teams against the pass for the season's first 10 games, Green Bay's pass D has been a mess. Brees started the carnage on a Monday night (323 YP / 4 TDs ) and Schaub threw for 414 yards against the Packers in Week 14. The team's four-game total in this 0-4 SU and ATS run shows 1,152 passing yards allowed (288.0 per). Putting that in perspective, Seattle ranked last in passing yards entering Week 16 at 260.9 YPG. Let me also note that Green Bay had allowed just 11 TD passes through its first 10 games (while intercepting 17!) over 330 attempts but over these last four games (119 attempts) has allowed eight TDs with just one INT! I expect Kyle Orton to play much better this time around vs Green Bay, as he's had a very solid year for the Bears. He's provided them with steady play at QB (Rex is now a distant memory), throwing 15 TDs and only 10 INTs for a respectable 80.1 QB rating. Rookie RB Matt Forte (1,115 / 4.0 YPC) is hardly spectacular but gives Chicago the kind of running game it had with Thomas Jones (why did the Bears ever let him go?). The first-year player from Tulane also leads the team with 58 catches. There's nothing special about Chicago's receiving corps as while Hester is an All-Pro return man, he's a mediocre WR (43 catches / 13.2 YPC / 4 TDs). However, the TE combo of Olsen and Clark has accounted for 81 catches. This will be Chicago's third straight home game and the Bears come in well-rested, off Week 15's Thursday night game. Chicago's playoff hopes are very much 'alive' and the Bears will show little mercy for the hated-Packers, who have shown to have little left in their collective 'tanks.'

Monday Night Game of the Month 20* Chi Bears.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang
Monday winner
20-Dime 6-Point Teaser Packers and Over - Analysis due back by 4 p.m. eastern

FREE - Packers/Bears Over (See daily video for your analysis)

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's Revenge GOW

The series between these two schools dates back to 1908-09 and is comprised of 220 games, second-most for the Aggies behind the 224 games they've played with BYU. The Utes lead the series 129-91 but the teams have alternated wins in the last six meetings. Utah's Jim Boylen is in just his second season at Utah but Utah State's Stew Morrill enters his 11th season at Logan. It's been quite a decade for him and the Aggies, as Morrill has led the Aggies to nine consecutive 20-win seasons and nine straight postseason appearances, including five NCAAs. The superlative Jaycee Carroll (22.4-6.0 LY) is gone after a great four-year career, as is last year's PG, Kris Clark (5.6-6.4 APG). However, the cupboard isn't bare, as the Aggies are off to an 8-1 start, losing only 68-63 to BYU in game played in Salt Lake City. So far, 6-9 center Wilkinson (17.7-8.2) and the 6-7 Wesley (11.3-6.2) have played very well in the early going. Newbold (10.1-4.0-2.6) is starting again at the small forward position and while new, the backcourt has played fairly well. JC transfers Quayle (9.3-4.8) and Williams (7.6) have been solid, joined by redshirt freshman Myaer (5.9). The Utes won 74-64 on Saturday over Weber State. as the victory halted a three-game slide by Utah (now 6-4). Many felt the Utes, with the 7-2 Nevill (16.7-7.8) and the 6-10 Tillie (3.9-4.0), would be able to stick with Blake Griffin and the Sooners back on 12/13 but Utes were manhandled in Norman, 70-52 (Griffin only had 11-11 but all five Okla starters scored in double digits). The Utes won just 25 games in the two years before Boylen took over, so LY's 18-15 season was one in which the team made some strides. However, the graduation of guard Johnnie Bryant (14.2) hurts and PG Drca (6.5-3.6 APG) is expected to miss again tonight, still serving a suspension. Senior guards Kepkay (11.2) and Borha (10.3) are solid plus the 6-8 Green (11.8-5.5) gives help to Nevill inside. Utah picked up a 72-48 win at home in Salt Lake City last year and that makes it Utah State's turn this year. Why shouldn't the Aggies win? Utah State has won 16 in a row at home against in-state opponents and has the second-longest regular-season home win streak against non-conference foes at 57 games. The Aggies are one of the top shooting programs in the country at 52.9 percent from the floor and I llok for them to 'gun down' the Utes fairly handily in this one.

Revenge Game of the Week 15* Utah State



Larry's 8* Western Conf Game of the Month

The Nuggets won 16 of their first 20 games after acquiring Chauncey Billups from Detroit last month but they've dropped their past three games and enter tonight's Northwest Division game with the Blazers at 17-10, same as the Blazers (Jazz are 17-12). Denver can't be complaining too much though, as Billups (17.7-6.9 APG) has really brought this team together. Carmelo's (20.5-7.4) been quiet in the lsoing streak but is still an outstanding scorer plus the return to health of Nene (13.9-7.3) has been huge. He's a little undersized to be playing in the middle but Denver's rotation has been working (despite the three-game slide). Martin (12.2-6.8) has been reasonably healthy at power forward while JR Smith (13.4-4.) has thrived in his role of coming off the bench. Kleiza (9.4) and Carter (6.2) are solid role players. The Blazers haven't played since Thursday, when Brandon Roy (23.4-4.6-5.2) scored 52 points at home against Phoenix, as the Blazers erased a seven-point halftime deficit to win 124-119. Roy's clearly one of the league's top players and Aldridge (16.7-6.8) continues to improve at the PF position. However, the jury is still out on Portland's Greg Oden (8.0-7.7), the league's overall No. 1 pick two years ago, who has been very inconsistent in his first year (missed all of LY with an injury). Rookie Rudy Fernandez (10.9) has been terrific off the bench, as has SF Travis Outlaw (10.5-4.), who is having his second straight good season. However, the Blazers are still vulnerable on the road, going 8-8 SU (6-10 ATS) away from the Rose Garden, where they've opened 9-2 this season. Yes, the Nuggets have lost three straight but those losses have come at Houston (18-9), home to the Cavs (23-4) and at Phoenix (16-11). The Nuggets haven't lost four straight games since February of 2007 and the Nuggets have dominated the Blazers here in Denver in recent years. The Blazers beat the Nuggets here in Denver 116-105 on 12/16/2007 but that ended a run of NINE straight wins by the Nuggets over the Blazers in Denver. This is a great spot for the Nuggets and they end their current mini-slump with ease.

Western Conf Game of the Month Den Nuggets.



Larry's Oddsmaker's Error-CBB

Bill Coen is in his third year at Northeastern and returned all five starters from LY's 14-17 team. He'll take a 5-4 record into tonight's game at Bloomington, hoping to continue the team's winning streak in this rather odd four-game road trip. The road trip began with a win at James Madison in the team's CAA opener on December 6th and continued with a 76-71 double-overtime win at Harvard on December 10th. Northeastern hasn't played since and after tonight's game will complete this trip with a stop at Memphis on New Year's Eve. Janning (16.2-3.7), a junior swingman, is the team's leading scorer with 6-4 sophomore guard Allen (10.2-4.9-3.6) being the only other player to score in double digits. The Huskies have decent height (more than Indiana, for sure), with the 6-8 Adako (9.8-3.4), the 6-8 Spates (8.0-3.8) and the 6-9 Ojoughoh (8.2-4.7), being the biggest contributors. Everyone remembers last year's 'nightmare' season at Indiana, with Kelvin Sampson getting thrown out. Indiana won 25 games LY but no starters remain and only 6-8 former walk-on Taber (3.9-4.9) has any real role this year. Tom Crean (190-96 in nine seasons) has taken over as head coach and most feel he'll be just fine in a while. All in all, I believe the Hoosiers have been reasonably impressive so far. They are 5-5 and have yet to lose at home (4-0). Devan Dumes, a 6-2 transfer from Vicennes University (Ind), is averaging 13.2 PPG and has teamed with Taber and a 'boatyard' of freshman. The 6-9 Pritchard (13.1-7.6) is the best of the bunch, with 6-4 guard Williams (8.8-5.1) plus two 6-5 swingman, Jones (7.9) and Storry (6.9), making solid contributions. Two more freshman guards, Roth (6.3) and Moore (6.4) are also making contributions. Northeastern hasn't played in nearly two weeks and a team which averages a modest 64.4 PPG is playing in Indiana's famous Assembly Hall on what is an elongated road trip. That's not a favorable situation and don't forget, the Hoosiers are 4-0 at home, winning by 18, three, 15 and 10 points. Once again (I used Indiana as an Oddsmaker's Error play in its 15-point home win over Cornell on 11/30 with a similar pointspread!), linemakers are selling the Hoosiers way too short against a very mediocre opponent.

Oddsmaker's Error on Indiana.

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Packers
Millionaire- Ga Tech
Insiders Circle- Cornell

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
MONDAY NIGHT GAME OF YEAR

I'm taking the points with GREEN BAY. The favored Bears have a few things going for them here. For starters, they are playing at home and they're also playing with 'revenge,' as the Packers pounded them at Green Bay earlier in the season. Additionally, with Minnesota losing yesterday, the Bears are still very much alive in the hunt to win the NFC North. The Packers, who have admittedly struggled lately, technically have nothing to play. So, easy play on the Bears, right? Not in my opinion! The previously mentioned factors have kept the line above a field goal, which I feel is generous. While the Packers "technically" have nothing to play for, they're a much more talented team than their record indicates and I expect them to treat this game like their Super Bowl. For starters, the Bears are their arch-rival. Sweeping them in the season series and keeping them out of the playoffs would be something that the Packers could actually feel good about. Additionally, Green Bay has been under intense scrutiny by the media ever since the decision to replace Brett Favre with Aaron Rodgers. With Favre struggling in recent weeks, this is an opportune time (and the last time this season) for Rodgers to prove on National TV that the Packers made the right decision. I expect these factors to provide motivation for the entire team. It should also be noted that teams in the "spoiler" role often elevate their level of play at this time of year. Former Green Bay coach Mike Holmgren sure had his team ready for a "meaningless" game yesterday as the Seahawks won outright vs. the Jets. That was a home game for the Seahawks but road teams are also certainly more than capable of thriving as spoilers. Just look at Buffalo yesterday. The Bills went into Denver of a devastating loss and having lost three straight and six of seven. With technically nothing to play for, they delivered one of their best efforts in weeks and dealt Denver a massive blow. For all this season's struggles, the Packers are still a perfect 4-0 ATS against teams from within the division. They won three of those games outright and lost the other by a single point. Looking back further and we find them at a profitable 12-3 ATS their last 15 divisional games. While they were blown out here last season, the Packers are still an excellent 10-4 ATS (12-2 SU) their last 14 trips to Chicago. I expect them to build on those stats by playing their best game in recent weeks. *MNF GOY

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. This is the semi-final game of the tournament with the winner advancing to the final. The fact that Depaul comes off a blowout win while St. Louis beat Liberty by only 3 (Depaul beat Liberty by only 1) has kept tonight's line in the pick'em range. That means a SU win also ensures a cover and I feel that provides us with excellent value with the Billikens. I also like the fact that the Billikens nearly blew their lead last game as feel that it will help keep them from being complacent here. Rick Majerus has done a major overhaul of this team and he's been getting solid production from his newcomers. Those "newcomers" have the benefit of playing with a pair of 4-year senior starters, guards Kevin Lisch and Tommie Liddell. Both of the longtime St. Louis stars are currently averaging better than 13 points per game. That being said, as usual, its been the Billikens' defense which is the strength of the team. While Depaul is allowing an average of 65.9 (68.7 on road) points per game, St. Louis is holding opponents to a mere 55 points per game. Note that Depaul is 0-3 SU/ATS its last three games against teams which allow 64 points or less per game, going an ugly 39-66 their last 105 against such teams. Both teams are 6-4 both neither has defeated a quality opponent yet. I feel that the Billikens veteran guards will give them the advantage though. The Blue Demons are a young team and they were held to a mere 36 points vs. Northwestern earlier. I expect them to have trouble scoring again this evening. Before closing, its also worth noting that Depaul is a money-burning 1-7 SU/ATS the last eight times that it played a neutral court game with a line ranging from pick'em to +3. *Personal Favorite

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

Monday College Opinions/Possible Best Bets
NC STATE (+1) over Marquette
04:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 716
Marquette may have 4 starters returning from last year’s very good team, but new coach Buzz Williams is no Tom Crean and the Warriors will be lucky to make the NCAA Tournament if they continue to play like they have in their first 11 games (at a level about 1 ½ points below NCAA tourney at-large level). NC State has actually been just as good as Marquette and my ratings using this year’s games only favor NC State by 4 points in this game. Marquette has faced 3 decent teams this season (Dayton, Wisconsin, and Tennessee) and they are 0-3 ATS in those games with the only straight up coming by just 3 points at home against a Wisconsin team that is not very good this season. I still think Marquette can play better than they have, so I’ll resist making the Wolfpack a Best Bet now that the line has come down from +3 points, but I’ll certainly lean with NC State based on the line value and I’d take NC State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more.

SAN DIEGO (-9 ½) over Boise State
07:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 750
San Diego returned 5 starters from the team that made a run in last year’s NCAA Tournament, but the Toreros were overrated heading into this season and are now without point guard Brandon Johnson. Johnson was the leading scorer for San Diego last season, but he actually hadn’t played very well prior to getting hurt, as he had made just 39% of his shots while averaging 3.3 turnovers per game. San Diego has played 3 games without Johnson and have played at the same level as before he got hurt, which is about the same level that they played from January on last season. The opening line on this game of SD by 11 ½ points was clearly too high, but the line has come down to 9 ½ points and San Diego applies to a very strong 132-46-4 ATS home momentum situation and a 112-49-3 ATS non-conference home revenge situation. My ratings using only San Diego’s 3 games without Johnson favor the Toreros by 8 ½ points, so the line still may be a bit high, but they’ve improved each game they’ve played without Johnson and a 7 point win over Oregon on a neutral floor on the 13th is an indication that they have turned the corner and will start to play up to expectations. I’ll lean with San Diego at -10 or less based on the very strong situations and I’d take San Diego in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less.

Tennessee State (+23 ½) over KENTUCKY
04:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 769
Tennessee State is 9-1 ATS as an underdog of more than 14 points (1-0 this year with last week’s 66-75 loss as a 17 point dog at Alabama) and the Tigers apply to a very good 110-45-5 ATS huge road underdog situation tonight. Unfortunately, my ratings favor Kentucky by 25 points, so I’ll just lean with Tennessee State plus the points. I’d take Tennessee State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +25 points or more

[Mr. IWS]

big al

3* nc state

[Mr. IWS]

PPP-Opinion

GB

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer

Bears

[Mr. IWS]

PP of Pitt - Hoops

4* Utah St
3* Cornell
3* Missouri St
3* Sacramento Kings

[Mr. IWS]

spritzer
grizzlies
temple
WF