12-23-08

[Mr. IWS]

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Eastern Conf GOW (4-1 NBA run)

The Bulls went from 49 wins two years ago to 49 losses last year and have opened 13-14 this year. In comparison, the Pistons have been one of the Eastern Conference's top teams this entire decade but must be questioning themselves (and the team's future), after a disappointing 14-11 start. The Pistons lost three consecutive games just once last season and followed it with 10 consecutive wins. What a difference a year makes. With a loss to the Bulls tonight, the Pistons will have dropped three straight for the second time this month! However, that's IF they lose to the Bulls? The good news is that the Bulls may be 10-3 at home but they are a loss away from losing five straight road games for the second time this year. Chicago is 3-11 SU on the road this year, allowing 105.8 PPG. The team's backcourt depth has been hurt by the injury to Hinrich and while No.1 pick Rose (17.7-3.7-6.2) is having a pretty impressive rookie season, he's coming off a tough week. Deng, the team's most consistent player the last few years, is down about five PPG this year from the last two years, shooting just 44 percent (shot 50 percent the L2!). Gooden (12.7-8.8) has always been a solid player (first with Cleveland and now with Chicago), but sprained an ankle at Boston on Friday and will miss 7-10 days. Gooden will be missed even more if Thomas (7.1-5.1) sits out with a concussion (listed as questionable). I'm not sure even the Bulls think second-year players Gray (3.8-4.9) and Noah (4.0-5.8) are ever going to be anything special. As I already mentioned, the Pistons have to be concerned about their team. After losing the first two games of Allen Iverson's tenure, Detroit did win FOUR of its next five (including wins over the Lakers and Cavs), but the Pistons are 6-8 since then. Iverson (18.6-5.8 APG) has been inconsistent and so has almost everyone else. Hamilton (17.7) doesn't seem comfortable and first-year head coach Curry has recently gone with a three-guard lineup, using second-year player Stuckey (10.7-5.1 APG), who everyone seems to think is pretty darned good (I agree). Prince and Wallace are fixtures in the lineup but Kwame Brown, Maxiell and Amir Johnson have all lost favor with Curry. Detroit has some issues but the team still has enough talent and going against a terrible road team like the Bulls, who must travel to Detroit to play a road game (with the next two days off), is too good of a situation to pass up.

Eastern Conf GOW 15* Det Pistons



Larry's Las Vegas Insider- NBA

What happened to that dominant team the Lakers were supposed to have? The team raced to a 14-1 start by the end of November but is only 8-4 SU and 1-11 ATS since, which includes a run of 10 consecutive ATS losses. Meanwhile, the Hornets have recovered from a so-so start to win 11 of their last 13 games, including all six home games during that stretch. The Hornets have been winning with defense lately, having not allowed more than 94 points in any of their last eight games. New Orleans is now allowing 91.5 PPG, which is third-best in the NBA. However, the Lakers are scoring a league-best 107.3 PPG. Kobe (26.1-5.3-4.2), Gasol (17.4-9.2), Bynum (12.4-8.4) and Fisher (11.1) are the everyday starters, with Radmanovic (6.8) getting most of the starts at the SF position, with Odom (8.6-6.3) coming off the bench. Ariza (9.3-5.1) is having an excellent year (he's a superb defender) but LA will now be without Farmar (7.9), who tore his lateral meniscus in last Friday's 89-87 loss to Miami (he may need surgery). That Dec 19 game at Miami was the first of LA's four-game road trip (it ends here), as the Lakers return home to host the Celtics on Christmas. LA has not played well on the trip, losing at Miami and Orlando, before using a late comeback last night in Memphis, to 'escape' with a 105-96 win over the Grizzlies. The Hornets have seen Peja (13.1-3.4) miss the last two games with back spasms but he may return tonight, as he did practice some on Monday. Paul's (20.3-5.3-11.8) 'star' just keeps getting brighter and West (20.0-7.2) is one of the league's steadiest power forwards. Chandler's (8.6-8.1) back in the lineup at center after missing a few games with minor injuries, as his SG Peterson (7.4), who joins Butler (8.0) and Brown (5.1) on the Hornets' perimeter. Posey (9.9-4.8), who was signed away from the Celtics, has been everything and more for New Orleans. I also like the addition of Antonio Daniels (from Washington), to back up Paul at the PG spot. These teams met back on Nov 12 and the Lakers won 93-86, to move to 7-0 on the year. However, as I mentioned at the start, the Lakers are in a huge ATS slump. It should be mentioned that LA has been favored in every one of their 10 straight ATS losses and tonight, will be a small 'dog, for just the second time all season. The first was that Nov 12 win here at New Orleans. Still, the Lakers just don't "look right" these days and are playing their fourth game in five days with the Celtics LOOMING on Christmas Day. This has got to be a HUGE game for the Hornets, as if they can't beat LA in this situation, when will they be able to do so? The Hornets "came up big" last Wednesday vs the Spurs (who had beaten them LY in a Game 7) and do they same thing here vs the Lakers.

Las Vegas Insider on the NO Hornets.


Larry Ness' LEGEND Play-CBB (1st TY!)

Everyone knows Kansas won LY's national title with that remarkable late comeback against Memphis (won in OT. The team's top-four scorers are gone in Rush Chalmers, Arthur and Jackson (combined 50 PPG), as well as guard Robinson (7.3-4.1 APG) and the 6-11 Kaun (7.1-3.9). Collins was a regular starter last year and returns, averaging 18.0 PPG and 4.9 APG. He teams with freshman Taylor (10.8-4.1 APG) in the starting backcourt with redshirt sophomore Morningstar (7.5) adding depth.The 6-11 Aldrich (2.8-3.0 LY) is off to an excellent start TY (14.0-10.5) and joining him in the frontcourt are two freshman, the 6-8 and 6-9 Morris twins, Marcus (8.3-5.9) and Markieff (5.5-5.1). Kansas is 8-2 to start the year but the team's had a very favorable schedule (more on that shortly). Arizona kept its NCAA streak alive last year (now 23 straight appearances) but for the first time in 20 seasons, failed to reach 20 wins (lost its first round game to finish 19-15). Lute Olson stepped away prior to the start of this season (health reasons) and considering that, Arizona's 7-3 start is fairly impressive. The 6-7 Budinger (19.1-6.0) and the 6-10 Hill (18.5-11.9) are quite a frontcourt duo, while guard Wise (13.6-5.2 APG) gives Arizona three quality players. Two freshman join them in the starting lineup, the 6-6 Horne (7.4-6.6) and guard Fogg (4.4). The Wildcats don't have a lot of depth but the team is efficient, shooting 50.4 percent from the floor and 46.0 percent from behind the three-point line. Arizona lost two one-point games to UAB (at home) and at Texas A&M, before beating then-No. 4 Gonzaga, 69-64 in Phoenix on Dec 14. The Wildcats lost 79-64 this past Saturday in Las Vegas to UNLV but beating the Rebels on their home court is no easy chore, especially in your first game after a major win. Kansas is in a terrible scheduling spot in this one. The Jayhawks have yet to leave the state of Kansas this year, playing seven games in Lawrence and three in Kansas City, where they've lost TWICE (to Syracuse in OT and to U Mass, 61-60). Kansas can't possibly be happy about this trip to the desert, a couple of days before Christmas as the team will "hurry back for the holidays," and then won't be leaving the state of Kansas again until a Jan 10 visit to East Lansing. The Jayhawks are "ripe for the picking" here and the Wildcats oblige.

LEGEND Play on Arizona.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Rivalry Game of the Week 15*

The knock against Illinois' Bruce Weber is that he can't recruit. No one says he can't coach. He won 112 games (28 per) in his first four seasons at Illinois, including the 2004-05 team which opened 29-0 before finishing 37-2 after a title-game loss to North Carolina. However, last year's team really struggled, going 16-19. Both Pruitt (12.6-7.3) and Randle (9.4-5.5) are gone from that team and of course there was the loss of guard Jamar Smith, who was dismissed from the team. However, the Illini have opened the year 10-1, losing only to Clemson, 76-74 in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge and in case anyone is not aware, the Tigers are unbeaten! Missouri is also coming off a tough year. The Tigers upset then-No. 7 Texas 97-84 in Columbia in early January last season but then finished 5-11 the rest of the way (16-16 overall). The month of January was marred by an off-the-court altercation outside of a bar and led to the dismissal of the team's leading scorer, Hannah (14.7-5.3 APG). Mike Anderson (former UAB head coach) had gone 18-12 in his first year with te Tigers, so LY was a "step back." Not only was Hannah not coming back TY but Keon Lawrence (11.0 PPG) decided to transfer to Seton Hall. That being said, Anderson's team is 9-1 and ranked for the first time since the week of Dec 29, 2003. Why not? The Tigers have won seven straight since a 75-71 loss Nov 20 to Xavier (a pretty good team) in Puerto Rico. Missouri is led by two outstanding senior forwards, the 6-8 Carroll (17.6-7.3) and the 6-9 Lyons (13.7-6.7). The other three starters are 6-7 big guard Matt Lawrence (9.5) plus junior guards Tiller (6.4-2.8-3.3) and Taylor (4.2-3.2-3.5). Five other players have also appeared in all 10 games TY, guards Denmon, English and Paul (average a combined 19 PPG) and forwards Safford and Ramsey (combined averages of 8.1-6.0). Anderson is looking to implement his mentor's (Nolan Richardson) "40 minutes of Hell" and he's got the athletes and depth to do just that this year. Illinois has two big sophs who have made great strides this seqason. The 7-1 Tisdale is up from 3.7-1.7 to 10.4-4.5 and the 6-10 Davis has gone from averaging 2.6-1.8 to 13.0-8.2. Senior guard Frazier (7.2-3.8-6.6) is surrounded in the backcourt by two more sophomores, McCamey (12.4-3.3-4.8) and Meachem (10.9). Illinois' depth does not quite match Missouri's as the 6-7 Legion (a prized freshman) was lost after the first game. The 6-7 Keller (6.4) and 6-5 Brock (5.2) are however, solid. The 10-1 Illini have won four straight since the loss to Clemson (all by double-digit margins) and have 'owned' this series lately, winning eight consecutive meetings since a 78-72 loss in 1999. It's played every year in the days before Christmas and has been dubbed "the Braggin' Rights series." It's my feeling that it's finally Missouri's time and enough is enough. The Tigers have won seven straight since that four-point loss to Xavier, winning by an average margin of 21.9 PPG. They rank in the top five nationally in scoring (86.3 PPG), APG (20.4) and steals per game (11.3). Anderson has "his kind of team" this year and that eight-year losing drought to Illinois ends tonight!


Rivalry Game of the Week 15* Missouri.

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT

I'm playing on Boise State and TCU to finish UNDER the total. Yes, both offenses are more than capable. However, both defenses are also excellent. The Horned Frogs finished second in the entire nation in both total yards allowed (215.1) and points (10.9). Only USC was better. A closer look shows that the Horned Frogs held 11 of their 12 opponents to 14 points or less and that Oklahoma, the highest scoring team in the country, was the only team which topped that mark. While not quite in TCU's class, Boise State is also much better defensively than most people believe. The Broncos held 10 of their 12 opponents to 16 points or less. Eight of those teams finished with 10 or less and six of them finished with seven or less. Overall, the Broncos allowed an average of only 294.5 total yards and a mere 12.2 points. The Horned Frogs are currently laying three points at most shops. That's worth noting as we find the UNDER at 4-1 the last five times that TCU played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3. During the same stretch, Boise State saw the UNDER go a perfect 4-0 when playing a game with a line in that range. Look for this evening's game to also prove much lower-scoring than expected with the final combined score staying below the generous number. *Main Event





BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with PORTLAND. These teams met last night at Denver with the Nuggets earning the win and cover. Playing with immediate revenge and returning home, I expect the Blazers to bounce back with a convincing win and cover this evening. The Blazers have been excellent at home this season, going 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average of 12 points per game. Playing in the revenge role, they won and covered vs. a red hot Phoenix team in their last game. In addition to having the homecourt advantage, the Blazers also have the schedule significantly in their favor. For starters, the Blazers are 10-5 SU and ATS the last 15 times that they played the second of back to back games. Conversely, Denver is 6-12 SU and 7-11 ATS its last 18 times in a back to back situation. Its more than that though. Prior to last night's game, the Blazers hadn't played since 12/18 and they had only played three games since 12/12. On the other hand, Denver, which will still be without star Carmello Anthony, played games on both 12/19 AND 12/20. That makes this the Nuggets' fourth game in the past five nights, which is as gruelling as it gets in the NBA. Note that the Nuggets are just 6-13-1 ATS (4-16 SU) the last 20 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to nine point range. Look for those numbers to get even worse, as the Blazers prove to be both the 'fresher' and the 'hungrier' team. *Blowout GOW

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- TCU

HOOP:
Chairman- La Monroe
Millionaire- Cleve St
Money Maker- Cent Mich

[Mr. IWS]

Big al

At 10:05 pm, our Northwest Division Game of the Year is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Denver, as the Blazers seek revenge from last night's loss in the Mile High City. In Monday's game, Denver overcame the absence of Carmelo Anthony (who will also be out tonight), and defeated Portland 97-89. However, according to my database, Denver will have a difficult time sweeping this "home-and-home" series. Consider that, since 1990, .644 (or worse) NBA teams which play back to back games over two nights vs. an opponent are 31-58 ATS if they covered the spread in the first game. That angle goes against the Nuggets. Also, Denver is a miserable 7-29 ATS on the road vs. division foes if it played at home the previous night, and is now priced from -5 to +15 points, including 2-17 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up loss. And, finally, Portland is 30-14 ATS at home the past three seasons vs. winning foes. Take Portland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang
Tuesday winner
20-Dime TCU - (if line is 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 3 ... if your line 3 you buy the 1/2 and lay 2 1/2)

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob
2 Star Selection
CLEVELAND (-7 ½) over Houston
23-Dec-08 04:05 PM Pacific Time
The Cavaliers are 21-6 ATS this season and they’ve covered the spread in their last 9 home games, which were all wins by 11 points or more. Houston is the best team that they’ve hosted this season but the Cavs beat Utah by 12 points here and Denver by 11 points, so they’ve been able to beat good teams at home by double-digit margins. Houston is playing well now that their big 3 are all healthy, but playing their 4th game in 5 nights after winning the first 3 of those games is a tough situation to be in (the Rockets apply to a negative 29-62-1 ATS situation based on that scheduling). My ratings favor Cleveland by 7 ½ points, so the line is fair and the Cavaliers have won 11 of their 13 home games by double-digits, including 9 in a row. It’s also tough to take on the Cavaliers when you had to play the previous night, as Cleveland is 7-1 ATS against unrested teams this season, including 4-0 ATS at home and 3-0 ATS if the Cavs had the previous night off. I’ll take Cleveland in a 2-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less.
2-Stars at -8 points or less.

3 Star Selection
Memphis (+11) over DALLAS
23-Dec-08 05:35 PM Pacific Time
Dallas tends to letdown when hosting bad teams, as the Mavericks are just 4-15-2 ATS at home against a team with a win percentage of .333 or less the last 3 seasons, including 0-4 ATS this season under new coach Rick Carlisle. The Mavs are also just 2-11 ATS in all home games this season and tonight they host a 9-18 Grizzlies team that applies to a very good 80-21-1 ATS big road underdog situation that is 32-6-1 ATS when applying to teams that played the previous night. My ratings favor Dallas by just 10 points, so we have some line value to go along with the good situation, and I don’t mind taking an improving Memphis squad that is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games. I’ll take Memphis in a 3-Star Best Bet at +10 ½ or more and for 2-Stars at +10 points.
3-Stars at +10 1/2 or more, 2-Stars at +10.

COLLEGE
Opinion
Missouri (-3 ½) over Illinois
23-Dec-08 04:30 PM Pacific Time
Missouri and Illinois are both playing above expectations so far this season, but the Illini are not in a good spot after a couple of easy wins over bad teams and they qualify in a negative 29-82-5 ATS situation tonight. My ratings favor Missouri by 3 points at this neutral site and I’ll lean with the Tigers at -3 ½ or -4 points and I’ll take Missouri in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
Opinion - would be a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less.

3 Star Selection
DAYTON (-8 ½) over Marshall
23-Dec-08 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Dayton is one of the better defensive teams in the nation (33.7% FG allowed), but he Flyers have had trouble scoring against good defensive teams. Scoring shouldn’t be a problem against a Marshall team that has allowed 46.5% shooting and 41.8% from 3-point range. Marshall is a good offensive team (48.1% FG), but the Thundering Herd have faced mostly mediocre and bad defensive teams and they struggled against the 2 better than average (but not great) defensive teams Wisconsin Green Bay (37.9% FG) and Morgan State (40.7% FG). Dayton will be able to score and Marshall hasn’t proven that they can score against a good defensive team. Dayton applies to a very good 132-47-4 ATS momentum situation, so the situation is favorable as well. My ratings favor the Flyers by 10 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Dayton in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 ½ or -10.
3-Stars at -9 or less, 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10.

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
4 tcu

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
3 76ers, twolves, grizzlies

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al?

Nba

3* minnesota timb
3* portland trail

Cbb

3* dayton
3* wisconsin
1* hawaii

[Mr. IWS]

spritzer
niagra
stan
g wash
kansas
cavs
hornets