12-24-08

[Mr. IWS]

joe Gavazzi / PPP

College Bowl Games

5% Notre Dame -2




joe Gavazzi / PPP

BREAKFEST CLUB



CFB
12-24-08
(A) Notre Dame -1

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al
current bowl record, 0-2 (two opinion plays)


3* play hawaii

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Wednesday winner
10-Dime Hawaii



FREE - Under Hawaii/Notre Dame (See daily video for your analysis)



Analysis due back by 4 p.m. eastern

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's Las Vegas Insider-Haw Bowl (1-0 TY)


Hawaii was 12-0 entering last year's bowl season and had a Sugar Bowl date with Georgia. The Rainbows were hopelessly outclassed in that game, losing 41-10 (game wasn't that close). As for the Irish, coming off a 3-9 season in 2007, the Irish were a much better team through seven games but finished with four losses in their last five and enter this game at 6-6. A loss here by Notre Dame and it would mark back-to-back losing seasons for the third time in 120 seasons. The first was in 1887 (0-1) and 1888 (1-2), and Gerry Faust's final season in 1985 (5-6) and Lou Holtz's first season in 1986 (5-6). Then of course there is Notre Dame's well publicized nine-game bowl losing streak, as the Irish haven't won a bowl game since beating Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl after the 1993 season. Almost incredibly, 89 of 119 schools have won in the postseason since Notre Dame's last bowl win. That sets the stage. I almost feel as if the "powers that be" in college football handpicked this opponent for the Irish. Hawaii has a strong home field advantage and Rainbows will be making their FIFTH appearance (playing in their home stadium), since this bowl's inception in 2002. Hawaii has won this game in 2003, 2004 and 2006. However, this year's team not only doesn't come close to matching last year's squad (that's obvious) but it is really also far below the previous four Hawaii teams which appeared in this bowl. Those four teams had a collective 38-17 (.691) mark, while this year's team enters 7-6. Now there is no doubt that QB Greg Alexander has made a huge difference for the Rainbows, as he led them to a 4-2 finish. He completed 64.6 percent of his throws in his six starts, passing for 1,533 yards with 12 TDs and just two INTs (also added 184 yards rushing with three more scores). However, the Rainbows only ran for 99.3 YPG (3.3 YPC) this year and Alexander can't expect much help from his running game. Let's remember, Hawaii threw for over 5,700 yards last year (with 51 TDs), as three receivers topped 1,000 yards, two topped 100 catches and all three had double digits in TD receptions (combined to catch 38). In comparison, Hawaii QBs threw for 3,192 yards TY with 21 TDs and 21 INTs, as the leading receiver had 56 catches and the yardage leader barely topped 750. The Notre Dame pass D ranks 18th in passing efficiency, allowing just 52.9 percent completions (12 TDs and 13 INTs) , while allowing an average of 184.9 YPG (ranks 30th). It's easy to remember Notre Dame's 1-4 slide, which included an embarrassing two-game finish. First came the 24-23 home loss to Syracuse (as nearly a three-TD favorite) and then the 38-3 loss at USC. Notre Dame had four FDs and 91 total yards in that game, picking up its initial FD on the last play of the third quarter (a 15-yard run by James Aldridge). Notre Dame had run 30 plays for 23 yards before Aldridge's run. However, with all criticism coming Weis' way (and with good reason,as the Irish are no longer an elite program), this year's team is dramatically improved over last year's squad. Let's not forget Notre Dame opened 0-5 last year, getting outscored 166-46. Wins in its final two games gave them a 3-9 mark, as the team averaged 75.3 YPG (2.1 YPC) on the ground and 167.0 YPG through the air. This year's team averages 113.4 YPG (3.4 YPC) on the ground and 231.4 YPG in the air. Clausen threw for 1,254 yards (7-6 ratio) LY and 2,771 yards (20-17 ratio) TY. Notre Dame was 5-2 and a 4th-down 'stop' away from moving to 6-2 against Pitt. However, the Panthers threw a 10-yard TD pass on 4th down to tie that game with just over two minutes left and then won in multiple OTs, 36-33. It was all downhill from there. Hawaii hasn't beaten a single team of note this year (best win came at home over 7-5 Nevada) and the team's strong showing vs Cincy on Dec 6 came against a Cincy team still 'celebrating' its first-ever BCS Bowl bid. And let's not forget, the Rainbows managed to blow a 24-10 4th quarter lead in that game. The Irish will NOT be distracted here and the last thing Weis needs right now, is to be explaining away the school's 10th consecutive bowl loss, to a 7-6 Hawaii team. The Irish have found an opponent they can beat and get it done.

Las Vegas Insider on Notre Dame.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob
Opinion
Hawaii 26 Notre Dame (-2.0) 23 (at Hawaii Bowl)
05:00 PM Pacific, 24-Dec-08
The line on this game opened with the home team Hawaii being favored by 2 points and now Notre Dame is a 2 point favorite. I think the oddsmakers had this one correct when they opened Hawaii as the small favorite and the Warriors are the percentage side in this game against the perennially overrated Irish. Notre Dame wasn’t as overrated this season as they are in most years due to how bad they were last season, but the Irish are not much better than an average team. Notre Dame averaged a modest 5.1 yards per play this season against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, but I decided to take their pathetic effort against USC (91 total yards at 1.9 yppl) out of the equation for this game since USC was extremely dominating this year. Even so, the Irish are still 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively and they’ll be up against a Hawaii stop unit that yielded a decent 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. So, Hawaii has a 0.2 yppl advantage when Notre Dame has the ball and Irish quarterback Jimmy Clausen is interception prone (17 interceptions in 12 games).

Notre Dame does have a solid defense that gave up just 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team and Hawaii has a negative offensive rating for the season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack). However, Hawaii’s offense got much better when Greg Alexander was installed as the Warriors’ quarterback midway through their week 9 win over Nevada. In those final 5 ½ games Alexander averaged 7.1 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback) and Hawaii is 0.3 yppl better than average with Alexander at quarterback. Alexander also remedied Hawaii’s biggest problem, which was interceptions. Hawaii quarterbacks threw a combined 19 interceptions in the first 7 ½ games of the season, but Alexander threw just 2 picks in the final 5 ½ games. Hawaii’s offense with Alexander at quarterback is just as good as Notre Dame’s defense.

Not only does Hawaii have a slight 0.2 yppl overall advantage from the line of scrimmage over Notre Dame, but the Warriors are much less likely to turn the ball over than the Irish now that Alexander is at quarterback. Notre Dame does have a significant edge in special teams, which will help with field position, but my math model favors Hawaii by 1 ½ points at home – which is about what the oddsmakers had the line at. Notre Dame must have a lot of alumni that love to gamble, because the line on the Irish in bowl games is always off. Notre Dame has lost 9 consecutive bowl games straight up (1-8 ATS) and they’ve dropped 6 straight to the number due to bad lines. In addition to the line value, bowl teams playing in their home stadium are 14-5 ATS as long as they’re not favored by 7 points or more and teams that end the regular season by scoring less than 7 points (the Irish scored 3 points against USC) are just 3-15 ATS in bowl games as a favorite or small dog of less than 3 points. I’ve had Best Bets against the Irish in a few of those games, but I’ll resist making this one a Best Bet. I’ll lean with Hawaii at -1 or better and I’d consider Hawaii a Strong Opinion at +3 points and a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points (at -1.15 odds or better). I have no opinion on the total.

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT

I'm playing on Hawaii and Notre Dame to finish UNDER the total. It's true that recent Hawaii Bowls have been extremely high-scoring. In fact, the last six bowl games here have all produced a minimum of 64 combined points. There have been a few reasons for those high scores. For starters, the "weather issues" which often plague other bowl games aren't generally a factor in sunny Hawaii. In fact, the entire tropical atmosphere makes it feel like a vacation to many of the players. Additionally, many of the teams involved in those games were high-scoring but defensively-challenged teams. For example, Hawaii was involved in three of those games and most remember what type of team the Warriors were in the June Jones years with quarterbacks like Colt Brennan and Timmy Chang throwing on nearly every play. I feel that this year's game will be much different though. While many of these 'lesser' bowl games aren't treated quite as seriously, I expect both of this year's teams to be extremely serious and motivated to win. Hawaii really wants to kick-off the post June Jones era with a win and also erase the painful memory from last year's beatdown vs. Georgia. I used Georgia as my 'bowl game of the year' and the Bulldogs completely embarrassed the Warriors. That should provide some added motivation to the Hawaii defense here, as they definitely do not want a similar result here. As for Notre Dame, the Irish haven't won a bowl game in ages. Indeed, Notre Dame has an NCAA-record nine-game bowl losing streak and hasn't won a bowl game in 15 years. As tailback Armondo Allen noted: "Breaking our bowl streak, that's very, very important..." In other words, much like TCU and Boise State last night (a couple of teams with something to prove) this should be a significantly more "serious" bowl game than many of the other early bowl games without the "vacation like" atmosphere we've seen here in Hawaii in the past. Additionally, while many still think of these as high-scoring teams, that wasn't the case this season. Notre Dame averaged only 22.7 points per game, including just 15.7 on the road. The UNDER was 5-1 in the Irish's six road games with the defense allowing an average of 22.5 points and just 288 yards in those games. Hawaii averaged 24.9 points per game, down significantly from previous years. The Warriors made up for it by playing strong defense though, particularly here at home. In six games here, they allowed 19.7 points and 289.4 total yards of offense. The defense improved down the stretch, too, allowing an average of just 245.7 total yards of offense through the final three games. The Warriors did permit 29 points to Cincinnati in their final game. However, the Bearcats were one of the better teams in the country this season and a closer look at the stats from that game show that Hawaii held them to just 10 points through the first three quarters. The Irish have seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times that they played on turf and 5-1 the last six times they played a road game with a total in the 42.5 to 49 range. Most will expect a shootout but I look for solid defensive play and for the UNDER to improve to 7-1 the last eight times that the Warriors played with two or more week's rest in