12-27-08

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al M

3* play Wisconsin

current bowl record 0-3

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

Rotation #205 Memphis (+12 1/2) 3-Stars at +11 or more, 2-Stars down to +10. Loss

Rotation #215 Florida Atlantic (+6 1/2) 2-Stars at +6 or more, 3-Stars at +7 (-1.15 odds or better) or more. Win

Rotation #217 West Virginia (pick) 2-Stars at -2 1/2 or less.

Rotation #225 NC State (+8) 3-Stars at +7 or more, 2-Stars from +6 1/2 to +4.

Rotation #231 Western Michigan (+3) 2-Stars at +3 (-120 or better). Strong Opinion as dog of less than 3.

Rotation #241 Minnesota (+10) 2-Stars at +8 or more.

Rotation #254 Cincinnati (-2) 3-Stars at -2 1/2 or less, 2-Stars at -3 (-1.20 odds or less).

Rotation #263 Ohio State (+9) 2-Stars at +7 or more, 3-Stars at +10 or more

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness Saturday

9* Bowl Total

Both the Mountaineers and Tar Heels stayed near the top of their respective conferences (Big East and ACC) for a good part of the season and both flirted with opportunities of playing in the Orange Bowl. West Va reeled off five straight wins from Sept 27-Nov 1 but then split its final four games, with the losses coming by a combined seven points. The Mountaineers would up in a three-way tie for second place in the Big East, with Pitt and Rutgers. As for North Carolina, despite key injuries to its starting QB (TJ Yates) and its outstanding WR/KR Brandon Tate very early on, the Tar Heels won SEVEN of their first nine games. That opening run included impressive wins over top-25 opponents U Conn, Boston College and Georgia Tech, winning those games by an average of 22.6 points per contest. However, like West Va, the Tar Heels stumbled late, with the ACC Coastal title in sight. Back-to-back losses at Maryland and home to North Carolina State 'killed' NC's title hopes, although Butch Davis' team did close out the regular season with a 28-20 victory over Duke. North Carolina (8-4) finished in a tie with Miami for third in the Coastal Division of the ACC. Davis has done an excellent job in just his second season at Chapel Hill and this marks North Carolina's first bowl appearance since losing 37-24 to Boston College in the Continental Tire Bowl (predecessor to this bowl, played at the same venue). West Va head coach Bill Stewart famously led the Mountaineers to a 48-28 win over Oklahoma in last year's Fiesta Bowl as the school's interim coach, when Rich Rodriquez bolted for Michigan. That impressive win got Stewart his permanent gig at West Va and all things considered, its's been an OK first year, although most experts felt the Mountaineers could have won the Big East this season. QB Pat White and RB Noel Devine form an awesome one-two punch for West Va. White is the NCAA's all-time leader in career rushing among QBs with 4,425 yards (6.7 YPC), including four 200-yard games. He's scored 47 rushing TDs, with 40 coming over the final three years of his career. He had 919 YR with eight TDs this year and added 1,510 passing yards with 18 TDs with only six INTs. His completed 65.3 percent in his career with a ratio of 45-17. Devine took over for NFL draftee Steve Slaton and ran for 1,228 rushing yards (6.4 ypc). North Carolina's TJ Yates (60.0 percent with nine TDs and three INTs) missed five games with a broken ankle but Sexton filled in nicely, completing 56.0 percent with nine TDs and six INTs. Yates returned in the season's final two games and was near-perfect in the season finale against Duke, completing 15 of 19 passes for 190 yards and a season high-tying three TDs. RB Shaun Draughn was the Tar Heels' top rusher with 801 yards (4.4 YPC) and Nicks stepped in at WR for the injured Tate with 60 catches for 1,005 yards (16.8 YPC / 9 TDs). While North Carolina is going to its first bowl since 2004, this will be West Va's SEVENTH straight bowl appearance and its eighth this decade (since 2000). I'm not sure any player can match Vince Young's back-to-back Rose Bowl performances following the 2004 and 2005 seasons but White's three previous bowl efforts have been quite special. He's led West Va to a 3-0 bowl mark, winning LY's Fiesta Bowl over Oklahoma 48-28, the 2006 Gator Bowl over Ga Tech 38-35 and the 2005 Sugar Bowl 38-35 over Georgia. He's completed 62.5 percent of his throws for an average of 142.3 YPG with five TDs and zero INTs. He's run for 372 yards, an average of 124.0 per game (5.6 YPC) and one TD. West Va's averaged 41.3 PPG in the three wins and the games have averaged 74.0 PPG. Throw in West Va's other four bowl games this decade where those contests finished with totals of 48, 48, 70 and 87 points, and West Va bowl games have averaged 67.6 PPG this decade! While West Va's defense is top-notch (15.9 PPG allowed / ranked 9th), I see White excelling once again and North Carolina "playing along right."

9* West Va/NC Over


7* Daytime Dominator-TV: 10-3-1 run

Thad Matta knows a little bit about coaching college hoops. His career mark entering this year (his ninth), was 207-66 (.758), including 105-35 (.750) in his first four years at Ohio State. He led the Buckeyes (with a little help from freshman Oden and Conley) to the national champiopsnship game two years ago and then LY (with Oden and Conley off to the NBA), led the Buckeyes to an NIT title, as seniors Butler and Hunter teamed with 7-0 freshman Koufos to lead the way. Butler and Hunter graduated and Koufos headed off to the NBA but lo and behold, the Buckeyes have opened 9-0 and including the team's six-game winning streak to end last year, own the nation's longest active streak at 15 in a row. Now of course the guy on the other sideline today is no slouch either, as Bob Huggins is in his 27th year, taking a 616-222 (.735) mark into this season. He led his alma mater into the Sweet 16 last year, in his first year in Morgantown. The Mountaineers are 9-2 to open this year, losing only to Kentucky in a tourney in Las Vegas, when the team shot a putrid 30.6 percent from the floor (including 3-of-18 on threes) and in the Jimmy V Classic in MSG to Davidson. In that game, the team's best player, 6-6 senior guard Ruoff (17.0-3.6-2.8) did not play, as Wildcats' star Stephen Curry scored 13 of Davidson's 15 points in a 68-65 win. West Va is not a big team, as its strength lies in Ruoff, the 6-7 Butler (15.5-6.2) and some solid depth. Freshman guard Bryant (11.3) starts with Ruoff in the backcourt, with 6-7 Smith (6.5-4.1) and 6-9 freshman Ebanks (7.5-6.7) joing Butler in the frontcourt. Two forwards, Flowers (6.5-4.5) and yet another freshman, Jones (4.9-4.5), add depth. Mazzulla (5.6-3.7 APG), a solid guard, is expected to miss with a shoulder injury. Ohio State will miss 6-5 Lighty (9.7-5.7), who will be out six to 12 weeks with a broken foot. However, three sophomores have built on their freshman years, to provide Matta with a strong nucleus. The 6-7 Turner (19.-6.8) has been the team's best player, with guard Diebler (10.4) and the 6-8 Lauderdale (8.0-4.9) also doing their share. The team's "star in waiting," is 7-0 freshman BJ Mullens. Mullens has been brought around slowly so far, averaging 7.8 PPG and 4.1 RPG but expect much more from him the rest of the way. Mullens had not played more than 20 minutes nor scored more than 11 points in any game this year, before dominating UNC-Ashville on Monday, as the Buckeyes won 83-59. He was 8-of-11 from the floor (six were dunks) in scoring 19 points, while adding eight rebounds and three blocked shots. I expect Mullens to have another big game against undersized West Virginia today and for the Buckeyes to roll, even without Lighty.

Daytime Dominator (TV) on Ohio State -3 (7*).


Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner-CFB


Wisconsin will be making a school-record seventh straight bowl appearance in Saturday's Champs Sports Bowl, played in the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida. That's 'chump change' for FSU and its legendary coach, Bobby Bowden. Bowden led Florida State to Orlando for just its eighth bowl game in school history back in 1977, in what was his first bowl game as the Seminoles' head coach (he went 5-6 in his first year at Tallahassee in '76). FSU beat Texas Tech 40-17 in that game (Tangerine Bowl) and 29 bowl appearances later, Bowden and the Seminoles return to Orlando. This will be Florida State's 30th bowl appearance under Bowden and 27th in a row, the longest active streak in CFB, with Michigan going 3-9 this year. Both teams are likely somewhat disappointed to be here, as Wisconsin saw its 3-0 start quickly ruined when it blew a 19-0 halftime lead at Michigan (lost 27-25 after getting outscored in the 4th quarter 20-6). The Badgers followed that loss with three more and even though they won four of five down the stretch to get to 7-5, Wisconsin needs a win here to avoid failing to win at least eight games for the first time since going 7-6 in 2003. The Seminoles were reportedly not happy to be passed over by the Gator Bowl, which is played on January 1 in Jacksonville. The Seminoles have played regular season games the last two seasons in Jacksonville, yet the Gator Bowl chose a 7-5 Clemson team over 8-4 FSU, even though the Seminoles beat the Tigers this year, 41-27. And so it goes. Both teams have questionable passing games and solid running games. Wisconsin averages 212.0 YPG (4.8 YPC / 31 TDs) on the ground, led by senior PJ Hill (1,021 yards / 4.8 YPC / 13 TDs), who has topped 1,000 yards for the third straight year plus freshman Clay (845 YR / 5.9 YPC / 9 TDs). The Seminoles average 187.8 YPG (4.9 YPC / 25 TDs) on the ground, led by Smith (753 YR / 4.7 YPC) and freshman Thomas (478 YR / 7.2 YPC). KSU transfer Evridge (53.8 percent / 5-5 ratio) began the year as Wisconsin's QB but the Badgers changed QBs following their 48-7 drubbing by Penn State on Oct 11. However, Sherer hasn't done much better, completing only 54.3 percent and also posting a 5-5 ratio. FSU's Christian Ponder threw for more INTs (13) than TDs (12) this year, completing only 55.4 percent. Bret Bielema is in his third year at Wisconsin (succeeded Barry Alvarez) and he hasn't come close to matching his magical first year, when the Badgers went 12-1, losing only at Michigan. The Badgers opened the '07 season 5-0 (giving Bielema 17 wins in his first 18 games) but the Badgers finished LY just 9-4, splitting their final eight games. Throw in TY's 7-5 mark and only a 36-35 overtime win against Cal Poly on Nov 22 (Cal Poly missed three extra-points!), keeps Wisconsin above .500 (11-9) over its last 20 games. None of the team's seven wins this year, came over a BCS school with more than seven wins. Meanwhile, the Seminoles own road wins over bowl teams like Miami-Fla, NC State and Maryland and home wins over Va Tech and Clemson. FSU has really been out of just one game all year and that was its season-ender against Florida (45-15) and in case you hadn't noticed, not many teams stayed with the Gators after their one-point loss to Ole Miss. FSU has the way better athletes and by game's end, the difference should be two TDs or more.


Weekend Wipeout Winner on Florida State


Las Vegas Insider- NBA


The Pistons beat the Bucks earlier this year (107-97 on Nov 28), for the seventh time in the last eight meetings between the teams. However, the Pistons just don't seem to be getting into any real 'groove' or 'flow' since acquiring Allen Iverson. Iverson is averaging just 18.2 PPG (5.8 APG) and Hamilton (17.2) seems to miss Billups. Second-year guard Stuckey (11.9-5.0 APG) is often used in a three-guard rotation, joining Prince (13.8-7.20 and Wallace (12.3-7.4). The re-signing of McDyess was a good thing but Curry (Detroit's first-year head coach), has seemingly lost confidence in Maxiell, Amir Johnson and Kwame Brown (join the club!). The Pistons used to be known for their depth, but no longer. As for the Bucks, while they enter 14-16 overall, they are an impressive 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS at home this season. They'll take a three-game overall winning streak into this game, having won five of their last six. Redd (19.4) missed 14 games earlier TY but has topped 20 points in eight of the 12 games since returning and is averaging 20.7 PPG during Milwaukee's modest three-game winning streak. Jefferson (17.9-5.0) is an All-Star caliber small forward (and a HUGE step-up from Yi), while Bogut (11.3-10.7) has played well in the middle and Villanueva (12.9-6.7) has done a solid job at the power forward position. Ridnour (10.5-5.4 APG) and Sessions (12.2-4.9 APG) have also done a decent job replacing Mo Williams at the point. The Pistons have won five of their last seven games but all five of the wins have come over sub-.500 clubs. Detroit has hardly been dominant in those wins, as they've come by an average margin of only six PPG, after the Pistons 'escaped' with a 90-88 win at home over the Thunder (who own an NBA-worst 3-27 mark), last night. The Bucks may be only 14-16 but they are not playing like a losing team lately and while the Pistons are playing back-to-back games, the Bucks haven't played since a 94-86 home win over the Jazz on Tuesday.


Las Vegas Insider on the Mil Bucks


Oddsmaker Error - NCAAB

(Hawaii is favored by five points). CSU and Hawaii both have second-year coaches, Tim Miles for the Rams and Bob Nash for the Rainbows. Both suffered through terrible first seasons, as CSU went 7-25 last year (including 0-16 in the MWC) with Hawaii going 11-19. Both head coaches knew that their respective second seasons would have a lot to do with a couple of transfers. For CSU, the 7-0 Vandervieran (7.1-4.6) came from Purdue and the 6-8 Ogide (12.5-8.5) from Ole Miss and both have been very solid. As for Hawaii, the Rainbows' "new guys" were JUCO transfers and they have been just terrific. The 6-7 Flemings (20.7-11.7) and the 6-8 Belocka (13.7-11.2) have joined the team's lone returning starter, the 6-9 Amis (10.3-7.9), to give the team a formidable frontcourt. Throw in guard Parhalava (7.2), who played with Belocka at Pensacola (Fla) College last year and Nash "has a smile on his face" this year. Nitoto (5.9-3.7 APG) is often the lone pure guard in the starting lineup, as 6-8 junior Mayben (5.7-2.2) gives Hawaii four starters this year bigger than 6-7. Other than Parhalava, 6-7 junior Adams (4.8-2.6) is the only other real contributor. The "big lineup" is working so far, as after an 0-2 start, the Rainbows have won SIX of their last seven, losing only at 11-1 Illinois, 68-58. AS for CSU, the Rams have started 3-8 and will take a six-game losing streak into this contest. Senior guards Walker (15.8) and Gardner (6.6) are back this year plus two freshman who played more than 20 MPG last season, are again getting significant time. Now sophomores, guard Simmons (5.6-3.7 APG) and the 6-6 McFarland (10.6-5.1) join freshman guard Carr (7.5) and 6-7 sophomore Franklin (6.3-3.4) as the other main contributors. I'm not claiming Hawaii to be any powerhouse but Flemings and Belocka were expected to make a major impact on this team and they have sure lived up to (and surpassed!), all expectations. Playing on the road in Hawaii is never easy, as it offers any number of added distractions. That particularly spells bad news for the Rams, who are 0-4 SU on the road this year, extending their losing streak to 24 straight on the road. The linemakers haven't come close to getting this one right.

Oddsmaker's Error on Hawaii
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Saturday winner 25-Dime California

10-Dime 10-Point Teaser - Florida State, Cal and West Virginia

FREE - Cal/Miami, Fla. Over

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
219 Wisconsin 6.0 (-110) vs 220 Florida St. *Main Event

Ben Burns | CFB Total Double-Dime Bet
222 California / 221 Miami UNDER 51.0 *Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on Washington and Oklahoma City to finish OVER the total. Both these teams have been involved in several relatively low-scoring games recently. While those results have helped to keep this evening's over/under line reasonably low, I expect to see plenty of points scored this evening. The Wizards come in desperate for a victory. They're mired in an extended losing streak and they take to the road after tonight's game. Facing an Oklahoma City team which allows 104 points per game on the road and which is off a devastating loss, I fully expect the Wizards to reach triple-digits in scoring here. A quick look at the recent games between the Wizards and the Sonics shows that Washington scored more than 100 points in six straight series meetings. The Wizards scored 104, 108, 106, 118, 101 and 137 in those games. Not surprisingly, the OVER was 4-1-1. Considering that the Wizards are allowing 102.9 points per game at home, the Thunder should also be able to put up decent numbers. Unlike most teams, the Thunder actually score more points on the road (94.5) than they do at home. They've seen nine of their 15 road games finish above the total. The Thunder have played particularly high-scoring games when playing their second game in two nights. In fact, the OVER is 3-0 the last three and 6-1 the last seven times that they were in that situation. All seven of Oklahoma City's opponents in those games reached triple-digits in scoring and they averaged 108.5. To their credit, the Thunder did score 97 points or more in five of those games themselves. The Wizards have seen the OVER go 14-3-3 the last 20 times they were laying points and this one should also prove higher-scoring than most are expecting. *Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with SOUTH FLORIDA. Off back to back losses and with Big East play on deck, the Bulls are hungry for a big win. Iona should represent the perfect opponent. The Gaels come off an upset win their last game, knocking off Hoftra 67-64 as 5.5 point road underdogs. However, I feel that this will prove to be an extremely tough spot for them. Not only are the Gaels playing back to back road games but this will mark their fourth straight road game. Its the only time all season that they play four straight road games and the fact that the trip comes over Christmas figures to make it even more difficult. Note that Iona is 2-9 SU and a money-burning 1-8 ATS in lined games the last 11 times it played its previous three games on the road. The Bulls are holding opponents to a mere 49.7 points on just 32.6% shooting at home this season. Behind another big defensive effort, look for them to improve to 16-9 ATS the last 25 times they were laying points. *CBB GOW

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on California and Miami to finish UNDER the total. Both these defenses are more than capable. Miami comes in having allowed just 315.8 total yards per game throughout the season. Cal has almost identical numbers, having allowed only 315.4 total yards per game. Its true that the Bears put up some huge point totals against weaker defenses and that eight of their 12 games finished above the total. However, when matched up against stronger teams, their games weren't nearly as high-scoring. For example, when facing Arizona State, the Bears won by a score of 24-14. When matched up against USC, they lost 17-3. Including that result, the Bears have held five of their last six opponents to 20 points or less, surrendering seven to Washington in their regular season finale and 16 vs. Stanford the previous week. Looking back a bit further and we find the UNDER at 10-7 (59%) the last three seasons when the Bears have been matched up against a team with a winning record. Its true that the Hurricanes closed out the season with back to back losses, giving up a lot of points in the process. However, they've had a whole month to "right the ship" defensively and I expect a much better effort on that side of the ball. As Coach Shannon said of his defense: "We're going to be back in the weight room getting stronger, getting ready for the bowl game..." Note that prior to the two losses, the Hurricanes had held Virginia Tech, Virginia and Wake Forest to a combined 41 points with none of those teams scoring more than 17. Additionally, note that the Hurricanes have seen the UNDER go 5-2 the last seven times that they were coming off back to back losses. During the same stretch, including the 16-14 win over Virginia Tech, they've seen the UNDER go 4-1 when coming off a bye. The Hurricane have played in four bowl games since 2003 and all of them produced 43 combined points or less. I feel that this evening's o/u number is generous and I expect the final combined score to prove lower than most are expecting. *Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with WISCONSIN. I believe that the Badgers are a better team than their 7-4 record indicates. They also come in as the "hotter" team. The Seminoles lost three of their final five games, including a 45-15 blowout loss to rival Florida in their regular-season finale. Conversely, the Badgers closed out the regular season with three straight victories, averaging better than 37 points in those games, and four wins in their past five. The lone loss during that stretch came at Michigan State and was by a single point. The Badgers are 19-12 ATS the last 31 times they were underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. During the same stretch, the Seminoles have gone 14-22-1 ATS as favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range, including a money-burning 4-9 SU/ATS mark in that role the past few seasons. Wisconsin has gone 2-2 in bowl games the past four years. However, a closer look at the two losses shows that they came by only three and four points. We're getting more than that to work with this afternoon and I feel that provides us with excellent value. *Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root
Millionaire-NC
Chairman -Cali

No-Limit-WHISK

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on Portland and Toronto to finish UNDER the number. I won with the Raptors when these teams faced each other a few weeks back but tonight I feel the value lies with the total. The Raptors rallied to win at Sacramento last night. While that game was high-scoring, they've still seen the UNDER go 7-2 their last nine games. Its also worth noting that the UNDER is 14-7 the last 21 times that the Raptors were road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. Additionally, the UNDER is 10-3-1 the last 14 times that the Raptors played the second of back to back games. Portland comes in off a rare home loss, falling 102-94 vs. Dallas on Christmas. The Blazers have typically responded to "upset" losses by playing excellent defense their next time out though. In fact, the UNDER is 3-0 the last three times that they were coming off a SU loss when listed as a favorite and a profitable 16-6 their last 22 in that situation. The Blazers have already seen the UNDER go 4-1 this season when listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range and I look for tonight's game to also prove lower-scoring than most are expecting. *Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

spritzer
fla st
cal under

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
4 w va
3 mia fla
oppinion - wisc

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

10 Dimes Wisc

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob Hoops
2 Star Selection
Orlando (-9.5) over MINNESOTA
27-Dec-08 05:05 PM Pacific Time
Minnesota broke their 13 game losing streak with a win at New York last night, but the Timberwolves are just 3-16-1 ATS as an underdog of 12 points or less following a victory (0-4 ATS this season) and only 10-22 ATS at home against teams with a winning record (1-7 ATS this season). Orlando, meanwhile, has covered the spread in 9 consecutive games and the Magic have made a habit of beating up on bad teams under coach Stan Van Gundy. The Magic are 34-14-2 ATS under Van Gundy when facing a team that is 2 games or more below .500, including 26-8-1 ATS if they did not have to play the previous night. That record is 23-5 ATS if the Magic are not favored by more than 11 points, including 7-1 ATS this season, and 13-0 ATS against teams with a win percentage of less than .375. My ratings favor Orlando by 11 ½ points and I’ll take the Magic in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
2-Stars at -10 or less.

3 Star Selection
MILWAUKEE (-5) over Detroit
27-Dec-08 05:35 PM Pacific Time
Detroit is a below average team since trading away Chauncey Billups for the vastly overrated Allen Iverson, as the Pistons have been out-scored by an average of 1.6 points per game in 23 games while playing a schedule that is 0.2 points easier than average. Detroit is still perceived to be a pretty good team and the Pistons are just 9-14 ATS with Iverson because their reputation exceeds their actual level of play with Iverson. Milwaukee is just 14-16 straight up, but the Bucks are 20-9-1 ATS this season while out-scoring their opponents by 0.3 points per game playing a schedule that is 1.0 points tougher than average. Using Detroit’s games with Iverson against all of Milwaukee’s games would yield a prediction of Bucks by 7 ½ points after factoring in the extra home court advantage for a rested team against a team that played the previous night. Milwaukee is a point better if you only include the 16 games in which star G Michael Redd played, so I would favor Milwaukee by 8 ½ points tonight. Aside from the line value the Bucks also apply to a 57-18-1 ATS subset of a 219-124-6 ATS home favorite revenge situation and I’ll take Milwaukee in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 ½ or -7 points.
3-Stars at -6 or less, 2-Stars up to -7.

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer 25 * is Florida State

[Mr. IWS]

Root - Hoops

Mil - Cal Irvine
Money Maker - Portland Pilots
__________________

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

3* Orlando nba

3* Wisky cfb