12-28-08

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al 5* GOM
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over New England. Although the Patriots are in a 'must-win' situation, it doesn't follow that they will automatically cover the spread. Indeed, the oddsmakers have over-compensated for New England's desperate strait, as this line is about 10 points different than what it would have been six weeks ago. Buffalo and New England played in early November, and the Patriots won 20-10 as a 3.5-point favorite, yet have now been installed as a ROAD favorite of a touchdown. Perhaps this would be understandable if Buffalo had thrown in the towel after being eliminated from the playoffs, but that hasn't happened. The Bills have been extremely competitive the past two weeks: Buffalo lost 31-27 to the Jets on December 14 as an 8-point underdog, and upset Denver last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Granted, New England has looked great the past two weeks, but its competition was the Raiders (one of the NFL's worst teams) and the Cardinals, who didn't play with their best players after clinching their division earlier in the month. Three weeks ago, New England struggled mightily to defeat a poor Seattle club, 24-21, as a 7-point favorite. This season, NFL teams are 23-16 when playing with same-season revenge, including 14-7 ATS as an underdog. Also, since December 2005, NFL teams are an awful 0-17 ATS on the road off a 23-point win, if they're NOT getting 3+ points, and are matched up against an opponent that's also off a win. With New England in off a 47-7 win over Arizona, the Patriots fall squarely within our 0-17 ATS angle. Buffalo also falls into 92-37 and 34-9 systems of mine which play on certain home dogs off road wins, and a 33-7 ATS "Last Home Game" system of mine. 5* NFL Game of the Month on the Bills. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's NFL 25-Club Play (3-0 TY in NFL!)

The Mike Hologren era is officially ending in Seattle with this Week 17 game in Phoenix against the Cards. Holmgren took over as Seattle's GM and head coach prior to the 1999 season and promptly guided the Seahawks to an AFC West title and their first playoff appearance since 1988. Entering this year, the Seahawks had been to five straight postseasons (including a Super Bowl appearance vs the Steelers at the end of the 2005 season), which was tied with the Pats for the second-longest active playoff streak. However, 2008 has not been the type of 'farewell tour' Holmgren had hoped for. The Seahawks have a mediocre running game (112.1 YPG with just nine rushing TDs), All-pro QB Hasselbeck has been hurt for the better part of the season and the team's receiving corps is sadly pathetic. Seattle ranks 26th in PPG (18.2) and 28th in YPG (270.3). Seattle was 2-11 before back-to-back wins over the Rams and Jets plus last week's 13-3 win over the Jets is hardly typical of the team's defensive effort, as Seattle enters the final game of the season ranked 30th in YPG (372.7). Beating the Jets in Holmgren's final home game was a nice "send-off" but let's remember that the Jets are in a 'free-fall' (have lost THREE of four and are in danger of missing the playoffs), while Seattle's other three wins this year have come by beating the Rams twice (St Louis is arguably the NFL's worst team at 2-13 with the NFL's worst point-differential at minus-229) and the 49ers in Mike Singletary's head coaching debut (San Fran is a different team now). As for the Cards, they've ended the NFL's longest active playoff-drought this year (last postseason for Arizona was in 1998) and are division-winners for the first time since the franchise won the NFC East while in St Louis in back in 1975. However, the Cards have lost 35-14 at home to Minnesota (were down 28-0 at then half) and 47-7 at New England (were down 31-0 at the half) the last two weeks (since clinching that division title). It's a weird situation for the Cards, as the results of the last two games make them the first team since the 1961 Raiders to trail 28-0 or worse at half in consecutive games. They're also the first team in NFL history to trail by 30-plus points at halftime twice and still make playoffs in that season (the Cards also trailed the Jets 34-0 at the half in a 56-35 Week 4 loss). So what are we to make of the Cards this week? Their playoff seeding is locked up and the Cards won't want to risk injury to QB Kurt Warner, RB Tim Hightower plus WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. However, reports indicate that the Cardinals are going to take this as a serious game, despite the fact that it means nothing in regards to the playoffs. We've already seen the line move quite a bit towards them. Kurt Warner is off his worst game of the season last week in New England, completing 6-of-18 passes for 30 yards with no TDs and no INTs (42.4 rating). Still, it's been quite a "comeback year" for the two-time MVP, who has completed 67.3 percent of his passes for 4,320 yards with 26 TDs and 13 OINTs (95,5 rating). Fitzgerald (91 catches / 10 TDs) and Boldin (89 catches / 11 TDs) are both over 1,000 yards receiving and look for Breaston (72 catches / 915 yards) to join them this week. The running game is a mess (71.3 YPG ranks 32nd) but let's look at what the Cards have accomplished this year. They've been obliterated on the East Coast, going 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS, getting outscored 202-102. However, they are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their other 10 games. All reports are that head coach Whisenhunt feels his team can't head into the playoffs (and have any chance at being successful), playing the way it has the last two weeks. I agree with that logic and the conventional wisdom of "giving up in Week 17 games" with nothing on the line may have been "shown up" last year, when Tom Coughlin's Giants went "all out" against the Pats in their Week 17 (also with no playoff implications on the line) and then made that historic playoff run which ended with a Super Bowl win. There is no Super Bowl in the future for Phoenix but an easy win over Seattle, a team which played its 'game' last week at home vs the Jets, is in the 'CARDS!'











Larry's Las Vegas Insider

Remember when everyone was 'singing' the praises of first-year head coach Jim Zorn? Well that was then and this is now? Remember when Mike Singletary "went off" after his first game as San Francisco's interim coach and everyone wondered if "Mike ready for the big time?" Well, that was then and this is now! I don't need any real in-depth analysis in this one. The Redskins opened 6-2 with Jason Campbell 'disguised' as a real NFL QB. That was then and this is now. After throwing eight TDs and no INTs in the team's 6-2 start, the Redskins are 2-5 since, averaging a pathetic 10.9 PPG (topping 13 points just once, in a 20-17 Week 12 win at Seattle). Campbell looks 'lost' in the offense, with four INTs and six INTs in the seven games with his highest QB rating in any of the seven games being 64.7. However, it's not just his fault. Zorn, never a head coach anywhere before TY (never even a coordinator, either!), seems more lost than Campbell and his handling of the Portis "situation" was brutal. Portis topped 100 yards in five of his first eight games but has done that just once since, in Week 12. The next two games he carried just 11 times in each game (for a total of just 54 yards!) and then after "open warfare" with his head coach, carried 47 times the last two games, gaining only 147 yards. That's a 2.9 YPC average the last four games. As for Singletary, his tirade (and his coaching) have turned the tide in San Francisco. Shaun Hill is 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS as starting QB (coincides with Singletary taking over), as he's completed 62.0 percent with 12 TDs and seven INTs for a QB rating of 87.1. JT O'Sullivan was 2-6 as a starter (off five straight losses when replaced), completing 58.2 percent with eight TDs and 11 INTs (73.6 rating). Gore (978 YR / 4.1 YPC / 6 Tds / 42 catches) is expected to play and he'll get his 1,000-yard season. Veteran WR Isaac Bruce has been a"new man" under Singletary, with 33 catches (6.6 per) over his last five games, after nabbing just 26 catches through his first 11 (just over two per game). The defense has allowed just 47 points over its last four (11.8 PPG) and and allowed average of just 14 FDs per game and 257.7 YPG over its last three. That theme of "that was then and this is now" just keeps 'ringing' in my ears. Washington is traveling for the third time in four games and must go all the way to San Francisco for this totally meaningless game.

Las Vegas Insider on the SF 49ers

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer NFL GOY- 49ers

[Mr. IWS]

BIg Al

5* Buffalo
1* Minn, Arizona, San Fran, Cincy

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 7* MVC Showdown

Bradley



Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner-CBB

Denver

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns | NFL Side
double-dime bet302 TAM -13.0 (-110) Bodog vs 301 OAK
Analysis: I'm laying the points with TAMPA BAY. I played on the Raiders last week and they stepped up and earned a rare victory. However, that was an entirely different situation than this afternoon's game. That was against a Houston team which I felt would be ripe for a letdown off a huge win over Tennessee. It was the Raiders' home finale and I felt that they'd be highly motivated to give the home fans a victory before the season finished. Additionally, that was a late afternoon game on the West Coast. This afternoon's game comes against an angry Tampa Bay team. Its on the road and making matters worse, its an early game on the East Coast. The last time the Raiders took to the road, they were crushed 34-7 at San Diego. Including that result, three of their last four road losses have come by 19 or more points.

Off last week's big win, I feel that the Raiders, who are still a very bad team, will have a sense of "mission accomplished." Note that the little bit of success the Raiders have enjoyed has come against teams from the AFC. When matched up against NFC teams, they've gone a dismal 1-10 SU/ATS the past three seasons. That includes a 0-3 mark against NFC teams this season, all three of those teams coming against teams from Tampa's division, the NFC South. The Raiders lost those games by a combined score of 75-9 and I look for them to get blown out again this afternoon. *Blowout GOW




Ben Burns | NFL Side
double-dime bet310 HOU -3.0 (+110) Bodog vs 309 CHI
Analysis: I'm laying the points with HOUSTON. I successfully played against both these teams last week. The Texans lost outright at Oakland while the Bears won but didn't cover vs. Green Bay. While that victory kept the Bears' playoff hopes alive, they really didn't play well at all and were fortunate to get the victory. Playing on a short week and having lost starting safety Mike Brown to a calf injury, I expect them to struggle at this difficult venue.

Yes, I said that "difficult venue" when describing Houston's Reliant Stadium. The Texans have won two straight games here and five of their last six games here. Dating back to last season, they're an impressive 9-2 their last 11 here. In their most recent game here, they knocked off the Titans, who have the best record in the NFL. Prior to that, they defeated Jacksonville by double-digits here. A victory here allows them to finish the season with a 500 record, match the franchise best mark of 6-2 at home, and to carry some positive momentum into next season. Look for the Texans to continue their strong play at home as the Bears get officially eliminated from playoff contention and fall to 4-11 ATS the last 15 times that they were coming off two or more consecutive victories. *Non-Conf. Personal Favorite




Ben Burns | NFL Side
double-dime bet326 BUF 6.0 (-110) Bodog vs 325 NEP
Analysis: I'm taking the points with BUFFALO. In terms of playoff implications, this game means everything to the Patriots and nothing to the Bills. If the Patriots win AND get some help, then they'll be back in the playoffs. The Bills, on the other hand, have been eliminated for a couple of weeks already now. The fact that this is a "must win" game for the Pats and a "meaningless" one for the Bills, will have the betting public favoring the Patriots. Throw in the fact that the Pats have always been very successful in December, combined with the fact that they have always dominated the Bills and you've everyone and their dog scrambling to get down on the visitors. In my opinion, that's given us terrific value with the home underdog Bills.

The Bills proved last week that they weren't ready to quit on the season. Playing a "meaningless" game at Denver, vs. a Broncos a team which desperately needed a victory, they scored the outright upset. If they could "get up" for that non-divisional road game, they should have absolutely no problem getting up for a "revenge" game vs. a hated division rival in their home finale. Belichick concurs, as he was quoted as saying: "Based on what Buffalo did on the road in Denver, I think that right there tells you how they're going to play...They are a good football team."

With back to back pointspread victories the Bills, who got their starting QB back last week, are now a healthy 11-7 ATS the last 18 times they were getting points. The Bills are also 30- 15-2 ATS (32-15 SU) the last 47 times that they played a home game with an over/under line in the 38.5 to 42 range. They're 9-6 ATS their last 15 December home games and I look for them to go all out to in an attempt to close out the season with a victory. *AFC GOW
__________________

[Mr. IWS]

Root

Chair - Jets
Mill - Houst
Mm - Minny
No Limit - Buff
Insider - New Orleans

[Mr. IWS]

ppp/gavazzi

3 la tech

[Mr. IWS]

spreitzer

NO
ariz
den
philly

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al (next update 3pm EST)

cbb
3* N Carolina Tar Heels

3* Evansville

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. *Main Event

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on the Chargers and Broncos to finish UNDER the total. *AFC TOY


BEN BURNS
BIG TICKET GAME OF YEAR

I'm laying the points with SAN FRANCISCO. *GOY

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang
Sunday night winners

25-Dime Texans... (if line is 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay -3..if line is 3 you buythe 1/2 and lay 2 1/2) - This is going to be a great day for MattSchaub and Andre Johnson.

Facing the 27th rated pass defense in the NFL minus yet another starterwhen Mike Brown went down Monday night against the Packers, it's goingto be a long day for this Bears secondary.

People are down on the Texans after last weeks implosion at Oaklandagainst the Raiders but coming off their huge home win over the Titansthe week before, who could blame them for a letdown.

In a nutshell, making Houston a 7 point road favorite for the firsttime in franchise history was a bit too much to ask after beating theTitans 13-12 but in my opinion, they make up for it right here today.

This may seem like a very simple way to look at this game but if youcan beat the best team in the NFL at home 2 weeks ago by 1 you sure ashell can take care of this fraud of a Bears team by more than 7.

I don't know about you but were you impressed with anything the KyleOrton and the Bears offense did against the Packers Monday night? Iknow I wasn't.

And if you think they are going to find it against this Texans defenseon the road then you have another thing coming considering their last 2road efforts against a quality opponent.

For reference see the 37-3 loss at Green Bay and 34-14 loss atMinnesota. Throw out the road win at the Rams because well, the Ramsare the Rams.

You can make a case for the Bears playing extra hard because they havea playoff spot on the line but let us be honest with one another here,the Bears are about as much a playoff team as I am a nascar driver.

The Texans are just a better team, an improving team, a team that wantsto finish 8-8 as badly as the Bears do and the difference from head totoe will be the Texans offense making plays where the Bears offensecan't.

My 25 dime winner today is the Texans all day long.

10 dime 3-team 10 point teaser #2 in a row - RAVENS / FALCONS / STEELERS - As good a spot to take these 3 favorites down to just win the game.

In my opinion, no way on the planet the Jags hang with this Ravens team which has to win to get into the playoffs.

The strength of the Ravens is their defensive line which plays to theweakness of the Jags, their offensive line. There is no way DavidGarrard will play well enough to engineer any kind of consistentoffensive momentum against Ray Lewis and the boys.

In a must win situation, let's take the Ravens down to a just win cover situation with the 10 point teaser here.

Same goes with the Falcons today. They win and a Saints win over thePanthers delivers a 1st round bye for this resurgent Atlanta club.

Bottom line is the Rams have lost their last 3 road games by 44 at theJets, 19 at San Francisco and 20 at Arizona. Again, as good a spot totake this Falcons team down to under a touchdown against a beaten downteam ready for the season to end.

Lastly, there is no way the Cleveland Browns with Ken Dorsey or BruceGradkowski are going to beat the Steelers today. Pittsburgh could playtheir entire 2nd units in this game and it would be enough to securethe win today.

Let's take all 3 of these squads down with 10 points and put them in a position to just win and let us cash in.

5 dime 2-team 6 point teaser - SAINTS / NINERS - The Saints aregoing to take this Panthers team down to the wire today. A Panthersteam who's defense has given up 45, 31 and 34 points their last 3 roadgames. Not exactly confidence building numbers.

Now I don't know if the Saints defense can get enough stops in theright situation to pull off the upset but in a game that I feel will bedecided in the last few minutes but always good to cover our bases withadding 6 points to our number.

How much can the Panthers have left in their tank after the tough lossat New York? I feel not much and with Drew Brees trying to breakMarino's total yardage mark, a little extra motivation is always goodfor New Orleans.

I understand the Panthers are playing for a first round bye but this isa Saints offense that will exploit this Carolina defense just liketheir last 3 road opponents.

I will take the Saints to around +6 1/2 or +7 points today.

As far as the Niners are concerned, the Redskins are coming off theirown little Super bowl win at home against the Eagles and now travel3,000 miles to play in this game.

They won't be able to run against this Niners defense which is allowingjust over 90 yards a game since Singletary took over. That means JasonCampbell is going to have to win this game.

I don't trust him as far as I can throw him considering this offense is averaging just over 16 points a game this year.

Let's take the Niners to just win along with the Saints around a touchdown and roll the dice.

FREE PICK - 2-team 6-point teaser - EAGLES / CARDINALS