12-29-08

[Mr. IWS]

dr. bob

Rotation #225 NC State (+8) 3-Stars at +7 or more, 2-Stars from +6 1/2 to +4.

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

Opinion-northwestern

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness NBA

Las Vegas Insider- NBA

Talk about being "home for the holidays?" Someone in the NBA's scheduling office must owe the Atlanta Hawks, as Atlanta has been home since Dec 13 and plays the final contest of what's been an eight-game homestand. Wouldn't every team in the league want that type of treatment? In comparison, the visiting Nuggets are playing the second game of a four-game road trip which began yesterday afternoon in Madison Square Garden, continues New Year's Eve in Toronto and ends Jan 2 in Okla City. Which team got the better holiday 'treatment?' There is good news for Denver though, as Carmelo Anthony returned in Sunday's 117-110 win over the Knicks, after missing three games with a sore right elbow. Anthony returned to the court for the 20-11 Nuggets on Sunday following a three-game absence because of a sore right elbow. After being held to 11.5 PPG while shooting just 8-of-27 (29.6 percent) in losses to Cleveland and Phoenix, the Nuggets decided to give their leading scorer (at 21.0 PPG) some time off. The rest worked, as Anthony scored 32 points on 13-of-19 from the floor, adding nine rebounds and four assists. The Nuggets are definitely a better team with Billups (17.9-6.9 APG) replacing Iverson but the real proof won't come until playoff time. A for now, the undersized Nene (14.1-7.8) is playing well at center, PF Martin (12.0-6.8) has been mostly healthy, JR Smith (13.7-4.) has "found his groove" coming off the bench plus role players like Kleiza (9.7-3.8), Carter (6.0-4.4) and even the 6-10 Anderson (5.5-5.0), are making solid contributions. However, this is not a good spot for Denver. The Hawks are 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) through the first seven games of this homestand, losing only a three-point decision to the Celtics. With Josh Smith (13.6-7.6) now healthy, the team's starting-five is very impressive. Johnson (23.2-4.7-5.7) and Bibby (16.0-5.1 APG) comprise a superb backcourt plus Williams (13.9-6.4) and Horford (10.9-8.6) join Smith inside. Flip Murray (8.6) has "found a home" in Atlanta's backcourt (Detroit is a distant memory) plus Evans (7.4) and Pachulia (5.4-5.9) are quality backups. Atlanta 'exploded' for a season-high 129 points in its win Saturday night over the Bulls and are 13-2 SU at home TY, holding opponents to 93.1 PPG in Phillips Arena. The team's won its six games on this homestand by an average margin on 9.2 PPG and that would be more than enough to 'cover' tonight's number. In fact, I expect a 15-point win.

Las Vegas Insider on the Atl Hawks

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang
Monday night winner ... 20-Dime 6-Point Teaser NC State/Missouri - Analysis by 1 p.m. eastern

FREE PICK - Northwestern/Missouri Over

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al
BIG AL's 94% COLLEGE HOOPS CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH

At 7 pm, our Big East Game of the Month is on the 2nd-ranked Connecticut Huskies minus the points over 12th-ranked Georgetown.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner-CBB

John Brady was less than two years removed from a Final Four appearance when LSU fired him last February. He took over at Arkansas State this year for Dickey Nutt, who was let go at the end of last season, his 20th in Jonesboro and his 13th as the school's head coach. Just goes to prove, coaching is a tough gig in the college ranks! Arkansas St is coming off a 10-20 season and at 9-3, can match last year's win total with a victory tonight in Stillwater. Don't count on it! Brady did a good job bringing in some JUCO players and that's been a huge bonus but the team's 9-3 record is more a reflection of the team's 'cupcake' schedule, than it is on the team's prowess. One of the Red Wolves' JUCOs is 6-5 swingman Boone (12.7), who is the team's lone double digit scorer. Also making contributions are fellow JUCOs the 6-8 McKinney (8.3-6.8), the 6-7 Brown (7.0-5.3) and guard Ayers (6.3). PG Koggu (6.1-3.8-4.9) is a holdover from last year, as is 6-6 small forward Morgan (8.8-5.8). The 6-7 Kur (11.1) has had eligibility issues and hasn't played yet this year. Travis Ford (former Kentucky three-point 'bomber') took over for Sean Sutton at Oklahoma State after leading U Mass to back-to-back seasons of 24 and 25 wins (reached NIT semis LY). OSU is Ford's type of team. It's perimeter-oriented and loves to "shoot the three." The 6-11 Thomas (8.3-3.9) was dismissed from the team earlier TY and that leaves only the 6-8 Kirkland (3.2-2.8) and the 6-6 Brown (3.5-2.5) adding any real contributions inside. The 6-6 Anderson (17.4-5.9) leads the team in scoring with two other 6-5 players off to excellent starts as well. Harris (15.3-5.3) is a senior while junior Muonelo (14.6-9.10 is proving to be an outstanding rebounder. PG Eaton (12.8-3.5-6.4) is a senior and freshman Page (10.0) is not starting but is sure contributing. OSU's "M.O." hasn't changed, the Cowboys a poor team away from home (LY's Feb 16 win at Texas A&M ended a 19-game road losing streak) but is brutally tough to beat here in Stillwater. The Red Wolves come in averaging just 68.1 PPG and will face a OSU team which is averaging 83.8 PPG and shooting .411 from three-point range. OSU just had an impressive win over a talented Rhode Island team 86-82 at Oklahoma City (semi-neutral site) and is already 5-0 at home this year, averaging 92.4 PPG. This is the very definition of a W-I-P-E-O-U-T!


Weekly Wipeout Winner on Oklahoma State



Larry's 9* CBB Tourney Game


I predicted a 20-win season for UTEP this year and maybe even an NCAA invite. The Miners got off to a slow start but they've been outstanding in their last two games, easy home wins over Texas Tech (97-78) and a "revenge game" win over New Mexico St (84-69). I had them in BOTH of those games and will play them again here vs James Madison, in the opening round of the Cable Car Classic in Santa Clara (four-team tourney including the host, Santa Clara). UTEP is not deep and but senior Jackson (23.6-6.5) and sophomore Culpepper (19.6) are a terrific backcourt duo. The 6-6 Stone (5.4-4.3) joins them in the starting lineup with two 6-11 players, freshman Moultrie (9.3-7.1) and sophomore Britten (4.8-2.9). As far as depth goes, it's really only 7-0 Memphis transfer Kareem Cooper (6.5-4.6) and 6-7 senior McCulley (4.4-3.5). James Madison comes off a 13-17 season but that was quite a 'leap,' as the school had not won more than seven games in any of the previous four years. Four starters returned for this year and the Dukes are off to a 7-4 start (not bad). However, senior guard Jalloh (15.5 PPG and 5.5 RPG last year) has been lost for the season with a rotator cuff injury and his absence will hurt. Good news comes in the fact that after missing seven games, the 6-6 James (14.3-6.5) is back and over his last three outings, has scored 47 points (15.7 per). The 6-7 Swantson (14.6-3.7) is off to a very good start plus three freshman, 6-5 swingman Wells (12.2-5.1), the 6-7 Semenov (7.8-4.2) and guard Moore (9.9-3.7-3.8) have all played well. Returning players Curtis (7.5-4.7-3.0) starts with Moore in the backcourt plus the 6-7 Thornton (6.3-3.2) contributes up front. Head coach Matt Brady is in his first year at the school (he went 73-50 in four years at Marist) and while he's highly thought of, I'm not sold on the team's early season record. The Dukes lost at Davidson (no shame there) but also lost games at Loyola-Maryland (a 4-7 team), Longwood (a school which went 1-30 in the 2004-05 season and followed that with years of 10, nine and nine wins!) and a 6-4 Northeastern team. Granted this is a neutral site game but I'm not about to trust these Dukes away from Harrisonburg, while UTEP has beaten St Mary's 75-62 at a tourney in Anaheim (St Mary's lone loss this year at 12-1) plus lost 82-79 to Wake at the same tourney, a school which has yet to lose this year (11-0)

9* CBB Tourney Game on UTEP

[Mr. IWS]

larry ness weekly wipeout okie state

college gom utep

lenny del genio- okie state blowout winner
and suns oddsmaker mismatch

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

I'm playing on Rutgers and NC State to finish UNDER the total. *Best Bet*

I'm taking the points with OKLAHOMA CITY. (NBA) *Annihilator

I'm taking the points with CHARLESTON. (CBB) *TV GOW

[Mr. IWS]

Big Als 10 dime-------------NC ST

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with CHARLESTON. I successfully played against the Wildcats in their last game, a blowout loss at Purdue. That came way back on 12/20, meaning there could be some rust this evening. Regardless, I again feel that the Wildcats are over-valued and I expect them to have their hands full vs. a Cougars team which is currently playing excellent ball. While they don't have a big name star like Stephen Curry, the Cougars have quietly won nine straight games and are an impressive 10-1 on the season. Their lone loss came nearly six weeks ago and it was vs. Temple, a team which also defeated Tennessee. The Cougars have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in lined games since that loss. While the schedule has admittedly been rather soft, the Cougars did hand a 9-1 South Carolina team its only loss. Bobby Cremins is an excellent coach and he's got his team at 4-1 ATS the last five times they were underdogs of six points or less. Cremins has six players averaging double-digits in scoring and the Cougars are coming off a 1-point win at Winthrop on 12/22. Look for that "close game" experience to serve them well here as they continue their best start since the 2001-02 season. *TV GOW




BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with OKLAHOMA CITY. I played on the Thunder when these teams faced each other here last month. Oklahoma City came in as 9.5 point underdogs and lost by only one point. I feel that the Thunder will give the Suns a much tougher game than expected once again. Phoenix hasn't played since suffering a tough loss on Christmas Day, which isn't always a positive. (The Suns are already 0-1 SU/ATS this season when playing with three or more day's rest in between games.) With their loss on Christmas, the Suns fell to an ugly 3-9 ATS their last dozen games. Including last month's earlier result here, the Suns are just 2-6 ATS against teams with a losing record. Conversely, the Thunder are 13-5 ATS their last 18 games and 11-5-1 ATS on the season when facing a team with a winning record. They're also 3-1 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss and 4-2 ATS in the revenge role overall. Additionally, the Thunder/Sonics are 7-1-1 ATS their last nine games in this series. Look for another highly competitive effort here as they take the game down to the wire with a shot at the upset. *Annihilator




BEN BURNS

I'm playing on Rutgers and NC State to finish UNDER the total. This total has climbed from its opener and I feel that the current number is offering us excellent value. Yes, both offenses closed out the season on a high note. Both teams were also relatively solid defensively on the season though, particularly Rutgers, and both were strong on that side of the ball down the stretch. Both teams saw three of their five road games dip below the number. The Scarlet Knights held each of their last four opponents to 17 points or less and to an average of just 12.5. On the season, they held 10 of 12 opponents to 24 points or less. As for the Wolfpack, they did allow 28 points in their finale. However, they'd held each of their previous three opponents to 17 points or less, with those teams averaging less than 15. Overall, five of the Wolfpack's last six games finished with 51 combined points or less. Ten of their 12 games finished with 58 points or less on the season, nine of them finishing with 56 or less. The UNDER was 2-0 when the Wolfpack were coming off a bye with games against Florida State and Duke producing 43 and 44 points. While the Wolfpack didn't get to a bowl in his first year here, it's worth noting that O'Brien had seen both his last two bowl games, while with Boston College, finish with less than 50 combined points. Look for this afternoon's final combined score to also prove lower than expected with the UNDER improving to 17-7 the last 24 times that Rutgers played a non-conference game which had a total. *Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

PPP: 5* NC State, 3* NWestern

[Mr. IWS]

PPP

COLLEGE BASKETBALL
4% TEMPLE +9
3% GEORGETOWN +7
3% ARKANSAS STATE +13.5
3% PORTLAND STATE +13.5
4% DAVIDSON -4.5

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
5% NC STATE +7
3% MISSOURI +12

From his website for late plays

Breakfast Club A Northwestern

[Mr. IWS]

spritzer
nc st
mo

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

3* Uconn cbb

1* northwestern cfb

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Chairman- Georgetown
Millionaire- Northwestern (foots)
Millionaire- Long Beach St

PPP

COLLEGE BASKETBALL
4% TEMPLE +9
3% GEORGETOWN +7
3% ARKANSAS STATE +13.5
3% PORTLAND STATE +13.5
4% DAVIDSON -4.5

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
5% NC STATE +7
3% MISSOURI +12

From his website for late plays

Breakfast Club A Northwestern

PPP: 5* NC State, 3* NWestern (FROM ABOVE)

*****BE CAREFUL, CONFLICTING INFORMATION*****

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Late Breaking Play

No. 13 Villanova (11-1) will travel to Marquette on Thursday in its Big East opener but first must wrap up its annual series of games vs its "Big Five" rivals. The Wildcats are looking to sweep all four games vs city rivals for the third time in four seasons. The Wildcats have already beaten Penn (69-47), St Joe's (59-56) and LaSalle (70-59) and tonight take on the Temple Owls. The Owls upset then-No. 8 Tennessee 88-72 back on Dec 13, as 6-6 senior Dionte Christmas (20.8-6.4) scored 35 points. However, the Owls have dropped both games since, falling 71-59 at Kansas on Dec 20 and losing 76-71 last Monday at Long Beach State. The Kansas loss is no big deal but the loss at Long Beach St should concern coach Fran Dunphy. Dunphy led the Owls to four straight wins to end the regular season last year (his 2nd at Temple) and then led Temple to the A-10 tourney title with three more wins, beating St Joe's in the championship game. A 72-61 first round NCAA loss to Michigan St didn't put damper on a very good season for the Owls. The team's 5-5 start is a disappointment but that could all change with a win over 'Nova. I'm not quite sure how good Villanova is? The Wildcats are 11-1 , losing only to Texas but the Wildcats sure looked outclassed vs the Longhorns (lost 67-58 at Madison Square Garden). The 6-8 Cunningham (17.3-7.8) is joined in the frontcourt by 6-8 sophomore Pena (7.5-5.9) and senior swingman Anderson (4.6-3.8). Reynolds (14.7-4.5 APG) and Stokes (12.2) are the starting backcourt, with Fisher (8.9) and Redding (6.8-4.6) getting significant minutes. The 6-7 Clark (4.8-3.) is about the only other real contributor. Christmas is the 'key' for Temple and he's joined on the perimeter by Brooks (12.5), Inge (8.50)and freshman Moore (5.8). The 7-0 Olmos (12.0-3.5) is scoring more than double what he averaged LY (5.8) and the 6-9 Allen (9..6-8.0) has shown solid improvement from his freshman season. Villanova had seven days off for exams prior to its 78-68 win over Navy on Dec 22 and was a "step slow" on defense all game, allowing 14 three-pointers. Villanova is facing another lay-off here (six days) since the Navy game and the Wildcats are hoping they won't have the same troubles here (I'm hoping they will). The Wildcats won 101-93 at Temple last December, as Christmas had 20 points but shot just 5-of-15. It marked Villanova's third straight win in the series, meaning this is the senior's last chance to get a win over the Wildcats. Villanova struggled vs 5-6 St Joe's and didn't pull away from 6-5 LaSalle until late, so despite the fact that they've won 22 straight here at The Pavilion, I expect this one to be close. Fran Dunphy's Owls were able to beat Tennessee (albeit at home) and with a big game from Christmas (it IS that time of year!), they are surely capable of taking this one to wire.


Late Breaking Play on Temple