12-30-08

[Mr. IWS]

dr bob

Rotation #231 Western Michigan (+3) 2-Stars at +3 (-120 or better). Strong Opinion as dog of less than 3.

[Mr. IWS]

Ness Legend Play- Rice

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's LEGEND Play

Western Michigan enters the Texas Bowl 9-3 and its three losses have come against Nebraska, Central Michigan and Ball State, teams which finished the 2008 regular season with the combined records of 28-9 (.757). A win for the Broncos would give them the school's first-ever 10-win season. Rice also enters the game 9-3 and for a school which began playing football in 1912, is shooting for its-second-ever 10-win season (went 10-1 in 1949 with Tobin Rote at QB and finished 5th in the final AP poll after beating North Carolina 27-13 in the Cotton Bowl). Tim Hiller completed 66.7 percent of his passes for WMU, throwing for 3,418 yards with 34 TDs and just eight INTs. WR Simmons has 98 catches and RB West has 970 YR (5.1 YPC), leading a team which averages 121.5 YPC (4.3 YPC) on the ground. The OL does not feature a senior but it allowed only 14 sacks this year. I like Western Michigan but while this is technically a neutral site, Rice is playing in its home city of Houston, at the home of the Houston Texans, Reliant Stadium. Rice comes in on a six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS), averaging 44.2 PPG in that streak. Rice's defense leaves a lot to be desired (ranks 107 on the year, allowing 34.9 PPG) but allowed 28.8 PPG over its last five. QB Chase Clement is playing the final game of his college career in what is basically a home game. He's thrown for 3.812 yards this year, completing 66.4 percent of his throws with 41 TDs and only seven INTs. He's run for 621 yards (4.4 YPC) for 11 more TDs. He's topped 300 yards in a game seven times this year, including his last four games (averaging 363 per). WR Jarett Dillard has 79 catches and 19 TDs (most TY in the nation), giving him 59 career TDs (making him the NCAA's career leader in TD catches). As good as Dillard is, James Casey may be better. He has 104 catches and has caught 12 TDs plus has six rushing TDs (231 YR). He's lined up this year at WR, RB, TE and QB. TWICE this season, he's had a game in which he's caught, run for and thrown for a TD! The Rice running game averages 144.4 YPG (4.2 YPC) and is led by Ugokwe (755 YR), who really came on at the end of the season, running for 556 yards (5.4 YPC) during the team's six-game winning streak. It's a given that the Owls have a terrible defense but how about this stat? The Owls allowed 30 points or more eight times this year but won five of those games! Rice went to the Bluebonnet Bowl in 1961 and then didn't make another bowl appearance until the 2006 New Orleans Bowl (lost 41-17 to Troy). Meanwhile, Western Michigan is playing in its second bowl in three years but just its fourth in school history (0-3 all-time). Rice head coach David Bailiff, went 3-9 in his first year but has reversed that record this year and in what is basically a home game, is poised to lead the Owls to their first bowl win since they beat Alabama 28-6 in the Cotton Bowl (following the 1953 season). Rice has a dynamic offense and has committed only 16 turnovers this year. Rice's plus-13 TO ratio is pretty impressive compared to WMU's minus-three ratio. Chase Clement is quite a player (91 TDs and 28 INTs the last three years, with 23 rushing TDs), who's had at least 325 yards of total offense in 17 of the Owls' last 19 games! Western Michigan is capable of trading points for a while with Rice but in the end, the Broncos won't be able to match the Owls score for score.

LEGEND Play on Rice


Larry's Weekly Wipeout Winner- NCAAF


The Ducks and Cowboys are both 9-3 and own high scoring offenses. Oregon is averaging 41.9 PPG, while OSU averages 41.6. The Ducks have rushed for 3,334 yards (277.8 per game / 6.1 YPC / 42 TDs) compared to 3,072 (256.0 per game / 5.6 YPC / 35 TDs) for the Cowboys. Oregon's Johnson has 1,082 YR (6.9 YPC / 12 TDs) and Blount adds 928 yards (7.1 YPC / 16 TDs). OSU's Hunter has 1,518 YR (6.7 YPC / 14 TDs) and Toston has 658 yards (7.0 YPC / 9 TDs). Both QBs also contribute to the running games, as Oregon's Masoli has run for 612 yards (5.5 YPC / 7 TDs) and OSU's Robinson for 508 yards (3.9 YPC / 7 TDs). However, OSU owns the much better passing offense. Masoli's thrown for just 1,486 yards, completing 57.0 percent with 12 TDs and four INTs. Meanwhile, Robinson has thrown for 2.735 yards, completing 67.0 percent with 24 TDs and eight INTS. Robinson's had an outstanding year but with the QB 'field' in TY's Big 12, it's almost lost! OSU also owns one of the nation's top WRs in Dez Bryant, who has 74 catches with 18 TDs plus a TE many think will play in the NFL (Pettigrew). I thinks it's fair to say this game WON'T be decided by the defenses! The Cowboys will be making their sixth bowl appearance in the last seven seasons, while the Ducks are heading to a bowl game for the fourth straight year and 12th time in 14 seasons under Bellotti. OSU's Mike Gundy entered this year on the "hot seat," as his three-year mark in Stillwater was just 18-19 prior to the '08 season, despite back-to-back bowl appearances. However, he's now got a big new contract, as his Cowboys opened the season with seven straight wins (6-0 ATS), holding opponents to 20.6 PPG. However, OSU lost three of its final five games, allowing 48.3 PPG in the three losses. That being said, one must take a look at who the Cowboys lost to. It was Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. It should be noted that OSU went 9-2 ATS in its 9-3 season while Oregon went 6-6 ATS in its 9-3 year. Oregon lost at home 37-32 to Boise St, a team we just saw manhandled by TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl (I'm taking about the way the game was played, not the final score!). Oregon's other two losses came 44-10 at USC (got outgained 598 yards to 239) and at 26-16 at Cal (a team which was just life-and-death with a less than 100% Miami-Florida team in the Emerald Bowl). One also must take into consideration that Oregon may have already played its 'bowl game." Oregon spoiled Oregon State's Rose Bowl plans on Nov 29, ending the Beavers' six-game winning streak with a 65-38 win in Corvallis. The win prevented the hated-Beavers form going to the Rose Bowl for the first time since the 1964 season and also avenged a 38-31 loss (in two overtimes) in Eugene the previous year in a series affectionately named, "the Civil War." The Big 12 was BY FAR a stronger and deeper conference this year than the Pac 10 (other than USC, is any Pac 10 really that good?) and that pedigree will show up here. Mike Gundy is already in the Holiday Bowl Hall of Fame after completing 20 of 24 passes for 315 yards and two TDs in Oklahoma State's 62-14 victory over Wyoming in 1988 (his teammate was a RB named Barry Sanders). That game marks OSU's only previous appearance in the Holiday Bowl and a win here by the Cowboys will give Gundy a nice little 'daily double,' a win as a starting QB and a head coach in the same bowl game. By game's end, this one will feature a two TD spread.

Weekly Wipeout Winner on Oklahoma State


Larry's 9* Revenge Rout

Steve Alford's first season at New Mexico has to be considered a success, despite the fact the Lobos didn't get an NCAA bid and the team lost its first round game in the NIT. Alford inherited a team which had won 17 and 15 games the previous two years and won 24 games during the regular season, including eight road wins. Both of those totals tied school records. The road wins were particularly impressive, as for a long time, the Lobos have been known as a tough home team in "the Pit," but one which typically 'folded' away from Albuquerque. As for New Mex St, the Aggies won 25 games two years ago under Reggie Theus (who bolted to the Sac Kings) and last year under first-year head coach Marvin Menzies, won 21 games despite a number of personnel setbacks. New Mexico lost its best player to the NBA in JR Giddens (16.3-8.8) but the return to health of Danridge, who missed all of LY with an injury, is a big plus. Danridge (13.6-3.8) leads the team in scoring TY and is joined by two similar-sized players (all are 6-5 to 6-7 swingmen), Martinez (11.0-6.2) who starts and Toppert (10.8-3.2) who comes off the bench. The 6-9 Faris (9.9-6.5) is again the team's lone "big man" of note but Alford's perimeter game is pretty good, despite its youth. Gary (8.3-4.8 APG) is back at the starting PG position after a good freshman season and is joined by two new freshman in the backcourt. McDonald (9.9-4.3) is starting at shooting guard and Garth (4.6-4.0 APG) fills in nicely for Gary at the point. New Mex State's losses from last year were pretty big, as four seniors are gone. The team's leading scorer and rebounder (Hawkins at 18.1-7.8) is the biggest loss plus two 6-11 players are no longer there. The Aggies miss Passos (10.8-7.3) and Iti (5.7-5.0), as well as guard Peete (10.8-4.7-4.1). Those losses were expected but what wasn't, was Herb Pope (11.1-6.8) last year's troubled but very talented freshman who eventually played in 16 games, wound up transferring in September to Seton Hall. Despite all those losses, the Aggies will send out a pretty talented team for tonight's game. The guard duo of Young (18.1-3.9-3.3) and Gibson (15.0) is very good plus they are joined by an excellent freshman, Laroche (4.7-4.5 APG). The 6-6 McKines (12.8-8.8) is off to a solid sophomore season and is joined in the frontcourt by two freshman, 7-0 center Rahman (7.4-4.6) and the 6-8 Gillenwater (12.9-4.4). These two schools play each other every year in a home-and-home series. New Mexico won both games in the 2004-05 season but over the last three years, the home team has taken all six games. The Lobos beat the Aggies 76-62 (as 10 1/2-point favorites) on Dec 23 in Albuquerque and tonight, the Aggies will look to "return the favor" here in Las Cruces. I 'LOVE' their chances, as with this pointspread, a win almost GUARANTEES a 'cover.' New Mexico has seemingly "reverted to form" away from home TY, getting outscored 19-3 in the final 3 1/2 minutes at Creighton in its road opener, losing in Mexico to VCU and Drake in a late-November tourney, eking out a 57-54 win at a mediocre San Diego team for its lone road win TY on Dec 10 and then losing at Texas Tech 86-78 on Dec 20. The Lobos haven't played since their Dec 23 win over the Aggies, while the Aggies beat Loyola-Marymount 104-62 at home just two days ago. That was a confidence-builder, as the Aggies shot 57.3 percent from the floor, including making 17-of-27 three-pointers. When the Aggies lost at "the Pit," the Lobos were given 28 FT attempts while the Aggies went to the line just 16 times. "The calls" wiil go the Aggies' way tonight and the scoreboard will reflect just that!


Revenge Rout on New Mex St

[Mr. IWS]

B Lang

20-Dime Rice

5-Dime Maryland

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns for 12/30
Ben Burns | CFB Side Triple-Dime Bet
229 Nevada -2.0 (-110) Bodog vs 230 Maryland
Analysis: I'm laying the small number with NEVADA.

*Bowl GOM

Tue, 12/30/08 - 8:00 PMBen Burns | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
231 W. Michigan 3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 232 Rice
Analysis: I'm taking the points with WESTERN MICHIGAN.
*Annihilator

Tue, 12/30/08 - 8:00 PMBen Burns | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
233 Oregon 3.0 (-115) Bodog vs 234 Oklahoma St.
Analysis: I'm taking the points with OREGON.


*Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al?


cfb
1* Rice
1* Okie st

[Mr. IWS]

Ppp
Nba
3% Atlanta +1

College Basketball
4% Butler -5.5
4% Seton Hall +13


College Football
3% Oregon +2

[Mr. IWS]

Spritzer 25* Oregon

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Nevada
Millionaire- Oregon
Millionaire- Tulsa
Insiders Circle- Ole Miss

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

**DAYTON (-9) over George Mason
04:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 524
Dayton is 11-1 straight up and the only game they’ve lost was a game at Creighton in which they were in a very negative situation (I used Creighton as a Best Bet in that game). I used Dayton for a Best Bet winner over Marshall last week and the Flyers apply to a very good 194-85-7 ATS momentum situation tonight. George Mason is a solid team, but the Patriots haven’t faced a superior team all season and they tend to perform better when they are the better team (GM is 83-51-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 4 points under coach Larranaga, but 60-78-1 ATS in regular season games when favored by less than 3 points or getting points). George Mason has also had trouble visiting teams that are playing well, as the Patriots are 24-47-1 ATS under coach Larranaga in road games against teams coming off a win, including 12-31 ATS against a team that is also off a spread win and 9-25 ATS if George Mason is off consecutive wins (4-19 ATS if off 2 wins and opponent off a win and spread win). My ratings favor Dayton by 8 ½ points and I’m willing to give up ½ a point of line value to play the strong situation. I’ll take Dayton in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 3-Stars at -8 or less.

Tuesday NBA Opinion
New York (+5) over CHARLOTTE
The Knicks have been a pretty inconsistent team, covering 9 of 10 games before dropping their last 4 games to the number. New York has been consistent beating bad teams, however, as the Knicks are 8-1 straight up against the bottom 11 teams in the league based on my ratings (including a win over Charlotte), with their only loss to a bad team being to Minnesota on Friday. New York applies to a 66-23 ATS situation that is based on their current 6 game losing streak and a 40-10 ATS subset of that angle applies. The Bobcats are improved since their trade with Phoenix and my ratings favor the Bobcats by 6 points, so I’m not going to make this game a Best Bet. However, I’ll lean with New York at +5 and I’d make the Knicks a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.

[Mr. IWS]

spritzer
butler
dartmouth
seton hall
illinois
pacific