12-31-08

[Mr. IWS]

dr bob

Rotation #241 Minnesota (+10) 2-Stars at +8 or more.

[Mr. IWS]

Ness 25*- Houston over Air Force

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness Wednesday

Larry's 25-Club Bowl Play (1st of 2)-Day

I rode Wake Forest in this year's very first bowl game to a win and cover over Navy, as the Demon Deacons avenged a regular season loss to the Midshipmen. Wednesday's Armed Forces Bowl has a similar storyline, as Air Force beat Houston 31-28 back on September 13. Historically, there has been no real edge in taking teams playing with regular season revenge in bowl games but like the Wake Forest/Navy game, it's the "special circumstances" that make Houston the play in this game. I won't 're-litigate' the Wake/Navy game (I've already won the 'war' in that one!) but I will point out that Wake, usually a mistake-free team had SIX turnovers in that regular season loss to Navy and was a 16-point favorite. In the bowl rematch, one Wake's head coach and school officials lobbied to get, the Demon Deacons were favored by only a FG, setting up a very favorable situation. Now to the game at hand. Air Force opened 2-0 and was set to meet a 1-1 Houston team, fresh off a 56-35 'pasting in Stillwater vs Okla St. However, not much went as planned that week. Hurricane Ike was bearing down on the city of Houston and the Cougars could not have been too focused in practice that week. In fact, it wasn't until late in the week, that the game was moved to SMU's Ford Field (in Dallas), so the Cougars lost their homefield advantage. After monitoring weather forecasts, officials from both schools decided on Friday afternoon to move up Saturday's kickoff four and a half hours from a planned 2:30 p.m. start time, to 10:00 a.m. local time. Even with the change in venue, game conditions were rainy and winds from the outer edge of the storm gusted to 25 mph. Attendance was listed at 2,546. This was not a 'real' football game. Of course, the conditions were the same for both teams but its stands to reason that the Air Force 'kids' would be expected to handle the situation better than the Houston kids, who also had to be worried about what was happening in their home city, as well. The 'Readers Digest' version of the game goes like this. Air Force jumps out to a 31-7 lead and holds on for a 31-28 win. The Falcons ran the ball 71 times for 380 yards and QB Shea Smith didn't complete a pass, going 0-for-7. Houston rallied late and did finish with 534 total yards but it wasn't enough. Expect things to be much different this time around. Air Force has changed QBs, going with freshman Tim Jefferson and that's a real plus for the Falcons, as he's much quicker than Smith. Jefferson took over at QB after Air Force lost 33-27 (OT) to Navy and promptly led the Falcons to five straight wins. However, the five wins came over four MWC schools (plus Army), with those teams owning a combined record of 21-40 (.344). When Air Force was forced to "step up in class" at the end of the year, it lost 38-24 at home to BYU and 44-10 at TCU. Air Force's other two losses came to the aforementioned Navy and Utah, both at home. Air Force runs the option like Navy (which averaged 275.4 YPG) and has averaged 268.9 YPG on the ground. However, unlike the Middies, the Falcons average 4.5 YPC to Navy's 5.4, as Navy features backs like White (1,021 YR / 8.7 YPC) and Kettani (932 YR / 5.3 YPC) and Air Force's top RBs have gained 594 and 531 respectively, averaging 4.2 and 4.6 YPC. Houston won't stop the Air Force option but I expect the Cougars to do a much better job of slowing it down than in September. Now to Houston's offense, which ranks No. 1 in all of CFB, averaging 575.1 YPG. The team comes in on quite a roll, having topped 600 yards in each of its last four games (667.0 YPG), while averaging 49.0 PPG in that stretch. QB Case Keenum has 'exploded' in his sophomore year, completing 67.4 percent with 43 TDs and just 10 TDs. Houston finished the season winning SIX of its final eight games (started 1-3), scoring less than 42 points just one time in those final eight games. This game is being played in Fort Worth, not Houston, but it's safe to say that the attendance will greatly exceed the 2,500 or so who showed up for the last game between these two schools. Houston not only has a 'score' to settle with the Falcons, but now that Notre Dame beat Hawaii on Christmas Eve (ending the Irish's nine-game bowl losing streak), guess which school owns the longest-active bowl losing streak? You got it, it's the Cougars, who have lost eight straight bowls. Houston's last bowl win came in 1980, when the Cougars beat another service academy school, Navy, 35-0 in the Garden State Bowl. There will be no shut out for the Cougars this time but can't you see "the circle of life" setup here? Houston ends its bowl drought with a convincing win over a very overrated Air Force team, whose lone win over a quality opponent this year came in that September 13 game against Houston (I've already explained that!)

Larry's LV Insider-CFB (2-0 in the bowls)


LSU became the only school, to win two BCS titles with its 38-24 win over Ohio State last year (either Fla or Okla will join the Tigers this year as a two-time winners). For Les Miles, it was his third consecutive impressive bowl win with LSU, as his Tigers also beat Miami 40-3 as seven-point underdogs in the Peach Bowl (2005 season) and Notre Dame 41-14 in the Sugar Bowl (2006 season). Will Miles continue his bowl 'magic' Wednesday night in what is a return to the Peach Bowl (now known as the Chick-Fil-A Bowl), against the hometown Yellow Jackets of Ga Tech. Tech has a pretty fair coach on its sidelines in Paul Johnson. Johnson was 62-10 at Georgia Southern, winning four consecutive Div I-AA c-o-y honors from 1997-2000. He then spent six years at Navy, taking Navy to a bowl game in each of his last five seasons, while winning five straight Commander-in-Chief's trophies. He came to Ga Tech this year and installed a whole new offense (triple offense), implementing an entirely new playbook and didn't have a single senior starting on his OL. Nesbitt was his main QB and the sophomore had thrown just 13 passes as a freshman. Shaw, a true freshman, played some at QB as well and with Tashard Choice (1,412) off to the NFL, his leading returning rusher was Jonathan Dwyer (436 YR). The defense returned only four starters. So what happened? Ga Tech went 9-3 (8-2 ATS) and had only one bad loss, a 28-7 defeat at North Carolina. By the way, that came was just 7-0 North Carolina, entering the 4th quarter. Dwyer led the running attack with 1,328 yards (7.0 YPC / 12 TDs), topping 100 yards in NINE of his 12 games, including the final four (averaged 143.5 YPG in that stretch). Georgia Tech is third in the nation with 282.3 rushing YPG (YPC / TDs), after blistering Miami for 472 yards and Georgia for 409 in the final two games of the regular season. Tech averages a pathetic 103.8 YPG through the air (117th) but no one has been able to stop their powerful ground attack. Defensively, Tech ranked 22nd in both YPG (312.7) and points allowed (18.8) plus had an impressive 29 takeaways. As for LSU, its 'encore' season never materialized, as three different QBs have failed to generate a consistent passing attack and while RB Scott (1,109 YR / 5.5 YPC / 15 TDs) is a terrific talent, the LSU offense can be contained. Those three QBs completed only 51.9 percent for a modest average of 204.5 YPG with 20 TDs and 18 INTs. Getting the start in this game, is the least experienced of the QBs, Jordan Jefferson (41.7 percent). 'Killer' mistakes by their inexperienced QBs put way too much pressure on an LSU defense which itself, returned only five starters. LSU got off to a 4-0 start this year but problems developed quickly. The Tigers' first loss came by a 51-21 score against then-No. 11 Florida on Oct 11 and the season went downhill from there. Then-No. 9 Georgia 'hung' 52 points on the Tigers and LSU ended up allowing 250 points over its final eight games (31.3 per), just 29 points more than it gave up in all of 2007 (14 games!). LSU finished with FIVE losses in the SEC and went 2-4 (0-6 ATS) over its final six games of the regular season. One of those wins came over Troy, a game in which the Tigers entered the 4th quarter trailing 31-10 (in Baton Rogue, no less!) but somehow managed to win, 41-30. LSU still has athletes on defense but they tend to be over aggressive, something Paul Johnson's triple-option could easily exploit. If this game had been in Week 1 of the '08 season, LSU would have likely been a two TD favorite. However, this number is 'fair,' based on the way each team has played this season. LSU comes in 2-9 ATS and both ATS wins came via late 4th-quarter TDs, at Auburn and South Carolina. Meanwhile, as previously mentioned, Ga Tech is 8-2 ATS this year and Paul Johnson takes a very impressive 44-23-1 ATS mark (over his last 68 games) into this game. Ga Tech is playing in its 12th straight bowl game (extending a school record) and has a chance to knock of LY's national champs, in front of a partisan hometown crowd. Remember what Tech did to the Bulldogs at Georgia? That same Georgia team went into Baton Rogue and beat LSU, 52-38. Look out below. Las Vegas Insider on Ga Tech




Larry's 7* Big 10 Showdown

Did anyone really doubt John Beilein's ability to get things turned around in Ann Arbor? Michigan hasn't been to the NCAA tournament since 1994 and in Beilein's first season at Michigan (last year), the Wolverines finished just 10-22, including a 5-13 mark in Big Ten play. However, Michigan (10-2) has already beaten a pair of upper-echelon teams en route to already matching last season's win total. As for Wisconsin, Bo Ryan's team is 9-3 but has not looked good in three games vs top teams. In the championship game of the Paradise Jam tournament in the U.S. Virgin Islands on Nov 24, the Badgers were routed by then-No. 2 U Conn, 76-57. Wisconsin then lost 61-58 Dec 6 at then-No. 25 Marquette, before losing at home 74-69 to then-No. 9 Texas on Dec 23. The good news in that game was that the Badgers did 'hang' with the Longhorns, despite struggling physically and getting outrebounded 40-25. However, that's also the bad news. Wisconsin misses the 6-11 Brian Butch (12.4-6.6), as swingman Krabbenhoft (7.8-6.0) is the team's leading rebounder this year, getting just six per game. They also miss guard Flowers (9.6-3.8-2.7) and while Ryan is one terrific coach, the team's athleticism is questionable. Hughes (12.6) is a penetrating guard and is the type of player who can give Beilein's 1-3-1 trap defense fits but he's not enough. Bohanon (11.1) joins him the starting lineup with Krabbenhoft, joined by forwards Landry (12.1-4.3) and Nankivil (5.1-3.9). Michigan's sophomore guard Manny Harris (19.8-7.8-5.1) is off to a terrific start, while the 6-8 Sims (17.2-9.2) is right behind him. Freshman guards Novak (5.8) and Douglas (5.6) have both shown signs of being quality players and the really good news for Wolves' fans is that Laval Lucas-Perry is now on the court, after transferring from Arizona. The guard didn't become eligible until Dec 20 but in his three games, is averaging 11.3 PPG, while shooting 55.6 percent from the floor. Michigan upset then-No. 4 UCLA in Madison Square Garden on Nov 20 and the next night, stayed with Duke most of the way, before falling 71-56. The Wolverines lost 75-70 at Maryland in the ACC/Big 100 challenge in their next outing but haven't loss since. You may just have heard that led by Sims' 28 points, Michigan beat Duke 81-73 in a rematch of the team's Nov 21 loss right here in Crisler Arena on Dec 6? It marked Michigan's second win over a No. 4-ranked team in two weeks (remember UCLA?). Bo Ryan's team is nearly unbeatable at home but in his tenure, the Badgers are 42-39 on the road including 2-4 in Ann Arbor. Now remember, those Wolverine teams were not nearly as good as this one and after falling in all THREE meetings to the Badgers last year, including an embarrassing 51-34 in the Big 10 tourney, this year's Michigan team "makes a statement" of things to come in the new year, on the final day of 2008. Big 10 Showdown on Michigan

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 7* New Year's Eve Rout

SIU owns a proud BKB tradition and last year's disappointing 18-15 record (lost in the NIT's second round), saw a six-year NCAA run end. As for Northern Iowa, the Panthers had a three-year NCAA run from 2004-06 but they have won just 18 games in each of the last two seasons, both times missing out on any postseason play. Northern Iowa enters this game 6-6 on the season and SIU enters 5-7. Both teams lost their MVC openers on Sunday, although while SIU lost an the road at Bradley, Northern Iowa lost a double-OT game at home to 3-9 Indiana St. Now the Panthers will have to visit Carbondale (a very tough venue for a long time), on New Year's Eve. The Panthers lost the 6-6 Eric Coleman (12.3-8.8) from last year's team (was the squad's lone double-digit scorer LY and its leading rebounder) plus Josten (9.3), who was a solid backcourt performer. The 7-1 Egleseder (11.9-7.1) is this year's leading scorer and rebounder. He's joined in the starting lineup by the 6-8 Koch (10.8-4.5) and three guards. Sophomore Ahelegbe (11.6-3.6 APG), Farokhmanesh (9.8) a JUCO transfer plus freshman Moran (9.2-4.0). SIU had all sorts of trouble scoring away from Carbondale last year and the Salukis weren't all that much better at home. Too much pressure was but on the team's 6-7 inside duo of Falker (13.0-7.2) and Shaw (12.5-6.9) and the result was SIU failing to 'go dancing' for the first time in seven years. Both Falker and Shaw have graduated and I'm not sure TY's team will be any better. However, this is a great spot for the Salukis. The 6-8 Fay (11.8-4.6) is making the most of his increased palying time with Falker and Shaw gone (he averaged just 2.4-1.8 as a freshman LY) and 6-8 senior Boyle (8.3-5.0) hasn't been bad. Mullins (9.9-6.3 APG) is a solid PG and LY, was named the MVC's defensive p-o-y. He's joined on the perimeter by vet guard Clemmons (5.5) and two freshman, Dillard (10.8-3.8 APG) and Hare (5.5). These teams split two regular season games LY (SIU won in Carbondale 67-47) but Northern Iowa beat SIU 54-49 in the MVC tourney. SIU's Chris Lowry has had a nice run at SIU but could really use a win to get things headed in the right direction. What better spot to get one than here? Northern Iowa is already 0-3 SU on the road TY and is coming off a double-OT home loss in its MVC-opener against lowly Indiana St. SIU can ill-afford to lose its conference home opener and playing with a little revenge motive from LY's loss to Northern Iowa in the MVC tourney, should add some extra motivation. Northern Iowa can't possibly be thrilled about spending New Years Eve in Carbondale (would you be?) and that will show up in the final score. New Year's Eve Rout on Southern Illinois

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
NBA GAME OF MONTH

I'm taking the points with OKLAHOMA CITY. The Thunder aren't the most talented team in the league and their overall SU record is among the worst. However, since making an early season coaching change, they've been extremely competitive almost every time that they take the floor. Indeed, Monday's pointspread victory vs. Phoenix brought the Thunder to 14-5 ATS their last 19 games, including 7-2 ATS their last nine. Monday's result also brought the Thunder to 4-1 ATS on the season when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. That's worth noting, as the Warriors defeated them here earlier this month. While the Thunder haven't been winning many games outright, they've come very close to doing so, as they've been within five or less in the fourth quarter of four straight losses. I feel that the Warriors, who are terrible on the road, will provide a good matchup for the Thunder and that they have an excellent shot to finally break through with a SU victory. Already without Monta Ellis, the Warriors have been without Corey Maggette the past 13 games. He's currently listed as doubtful for tonight's game, although I'd still like the Thunder even if he played. While the Warriors did win here earlier, they're still a dismal 4-16 on the road for the year, including 2-13 their last 15. They were absolutely desperate for a victory the last time they came here, having been crushed by 35 points their previous game and having lost nine straight. They're off a home win over the Raptors this time though and with two wins in their last three games, it will be much easier to overlook the lowly Thunder, particularly on New Year's Eve and after recently having recently faced big name opponents like the Lakers and Celtics. Note that the Warriors are 1-4 SU/ATS on the season when coming off a SU win as an underdog and just 2-10 ATS (1-11 SU) when playing a road game with an over/under line of 210 or greater. The 12/8 loss here was one of Oklahoma City's rare non-competitive efforts under Coach Scott Brooks and I look for him to have his team fully ready for tonight's rematch. *December GOM

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
BOWL TOTAL OF MONTH

I'm playing on LSU and Georgia Tech to finish UNDER the total. This number has climbed from its opener and I feel that the current total is now too high, providing us with excellent value on the UNDER. Its true that LSU's defense wasn't quite as good this year, at least when compared to some of the Tigers' recent dominating units. However, the Tigers' "weakness" was against the pass and the Yellow Jackets don't have the type of passing attack to take advantage. The Tigers, who have seen the UNDER go 3-1 the last four times that they played in a dome, remained stout against the run this season, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry and 106 yards per game. Overall, LSU permitted a respectable 327 total yards per game. Georgia Tech's strength has been its defense, as the Yellow Jackets held opponents to just 18.2 points and 312 total yards per game. Overall, Georgia Tech games averaged 44.4 points on the season, with the UNDER going 6-4 in their games with a total. The Yellow Jackets, who closed out the season with back to back victories, have seen the UNDER go 9-3 the last 12 times they were coming off two or more consecutive wins and 9-4 their last 13 games (with a total) which were played on turf. With a heavy dose of the run from both teams helping to keep the clock moving and strong overall defensive play, I look for this evening's score to prove lower-scoring than most are expecting and the final combined score to fall beneath the generous number. *Bowl TOM

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with LSU. The Yellow Jackets exceeded expectations this year while the Tigers underachieved. However, while those results have given us excellent line value, it should be remembered that the Tigers played in a much tougher conference. I feel that LSU matches up very well vs. the Yellow Jackets. I also believe that the Tigers are far more talented and dangerous than their record indicates. Georgia Tech has successfully implemented Paul Johnson's triple-option attack and runs the ball almost exclusively. However, the extra few weeks of preparation time gives extremely well-coached LSU time to learn all about what the Yellow Jackets do. Additionally, while LSU has had some trouble against the pass, the Tigers were excellent against the run, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry and 106 yards per game. The Tigers have been excellent under Les Miles in bowl games and I expect them to come in with a chip on their shoulder, looking to prove they are better than what they showed this year. The Yellow Jackets were great when "flying under the radar." That's over though and they're now laying points against a top tier team from an elite conference. Being "expected to win" is an entirely different matter and I look for them to stumble here. *New Year's Eve Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with VANDERBILT. The Eagles bring the better record to the table. However, the Commodores played in the extremely tough SEC, so there 6-6 record is arguably a lot better than some of the other 6-6 teams. Yes, the Commodores did struggle down the stretch. I successfully played against them in their losses vs. Mississippi State and Tennessee, so its not like I am unaware of their second half problems. Again, they were playing against some of the best teams in the country though and now they've had plenty of time to recover from that gruelling schedule. I expect the Commodores to enter today's game "fresh," much like they were at the beginning of the season. While the Eagles may be somewhat disappointed, without question, the Commodores will be extremely excited to be here and motivated to play well. After all, their players weren't even alive the last time (1982) that the Commodores played in a bowl game. As coach Bobby Johnson said: "I'm excited, our staff is excited and our players are excited about getting a chance to experience a bowl game. Getting to play in the Gaylord Music City Bowl is a fantastic reward for this football team and Vanderbilt University." Let's not forget that Vanderbilt beat teams like Mississippi, Kentucky, South Carolina and Auburn this season. While the Eagles do boast an excellent defense, their offense has struggled to replace Matt Ryan and they enter today's game still with questions at quarterback - much like Vanderbilt. Overall, the Eagles have averaged just 318 yards of offense, which makes covering more than a field goal away from home tough. Note that Boston College, is 5-8 ATS the last 13 times that it was favored in the -3.5 to -10 range. Conversely, Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS the last five times it was an underdog in the +3.5 to +10 range and 7-2 ATS its last nine in the underdog role overall. After getting crushed by Virginia Tech in the ACC Title game, Boston College is 0-4 ATS its last four in December. With this game being played in Nashville, look for a highly inspired effort from the Commodores as they take this game down to the wire and earn at least the cover. *Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

big al

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

10 dimes Air Force

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
4 af
_______

[Mr. IWS]

Cbb Spreitzer drake 25*

[Mr. IWS]

DRBOB< I have 1 Basketball Best Bet for Wednesday, an NBA 3-Star Best Bet.

I believe his his best bet is Okl City Thunder--NOT CONFIRMED

Wednesday NBA Opinion
Orlando (-5 ½) over CHICAGO
Orlando ended their 10 game covering streak with a loss at Detroit on Monday night, but the Magic were in a negative situation for that game (I used Detroit as a Best Bet) and I expect them to bounce back today given their impressive 30-10 ATS record after a loss under coach Van Gundy. Chicago, meanwhile, is coming off a win over the Nets, but the Bulls are a horrendous 7-38 straight up since the beginning of last season following a victory and they are just 10-32 ATS in those games when not an underdog of 12 points or more (6-30 ATS in non-division games). Orlando also applies to a 151-69-3 ATS bounce-back situation today, but the line on this game is higher than it should be. The Bulls have played the toughest schedule in the league so far and they are actually just 0.8 points worse than average team after compensating for schedule strength. The Magic are 5.6 points better than an average team and home court advantage is 3 points when both teams had the previous night off. That would result in a fair line of Magic by 3.4 points and I’d favor Orlando by just 4 ½ points with Luol Deng out for the Bulls. I’ll still lean with Orlando, as I would get a prediction of Magic by 7 ½ points using Orlando’s games after a loss and Chicago’s games after a victory, but I’ll only play Orlando in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less.

Wednesday College Opinions/Possible Best Bet
UL Monroe (+12 ½) over ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK
UL Monroe started the season as one of the worse Division 1 teams in the nation, but the addition of Miami-Florida transfer Lawrence Gilbert to the lineup on December 10th has lifted the Warhawks level of play significantly. Gilbert missed the first 6 games of the season, but he has averaged a team leading 16.3 points per game in the 6 games he’s played while grabbing 5.5 rebounds per game and shooting 51% from the field and 48% from beyond the 3-point arc. ULM started the season with 6 spread losses, but they’ve covered the spread in each of their last 3 games and should give Little Rock a decent game today. Arkansas Little Rock is just 5-16-2 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or more under coach Steve Shields, including 0-6 ATS already this season. My ratings favor ALR by just 10 points and I’ll lean with UL Monroe plus the points. I’d take UL Monroe in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.

UTAH (+5 1/2) over Gonzaga
Gonzaga has lost some of their early season swagger with 3 losses in their last 4 games, including a 7 point home loss as a 21 ½ point favorite against Portland State in their most recent game. Utah presents a challenge for the Zags, who apply to a negative 36-92-2 ATS road favorite situation that is based on their recent upset loss. Utah has been a pretty good team so far this season and they’ve been even better when pointguard Luke Drca plays. Drca missed 4 games (3 completely and one where he was injured after 2 minutes) and the Utes were 7.6 points worse in those 4 games than they’ve been in the 7 games he’s played. My ratings favor Gonazaga by 6 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Utah in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.

[Mr. IWS]

Root
Chairman - LSU
Millionaire - Oregon State
Money Maker - Minnesota
No Limit - Vanderbilt
Millionaire- Notre Dame
No Limit- Drake

[Mr. IWS]

ppp

3 bulls, nets. nuggets, m tenn st

[Mr. IWS]

big al:

offshore steam: notre dame
computer boy: ohio st.