1-2-08 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

01-02-2009, 09:38 AM

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with UTAH. Last year, I successfully backed the favored SEC team (Georgia) against the undefeated non-BCS team, Hawaii. The Bulldogs dominated the game, showing that Hawaii's undefeated record wasn't as great as many had previously believed. A lot of people remember that game and are expecting a repeat with the big bad team from the SEC (Alabama) beating up on the lowly Mountain West school. I don't expect that to be the case this year though as I believe that Utah, which currently has the longest winning streak in the country, is a much stronger team than Hawaii was last year. Sugar Bowl executive Paul Hoolahan concurs, stating: "They've played competitively against top-name schools. To go 12-0 with the schedule they have, with the way they play, the way they get after it, I think it's a safe bet with those teams. Particularly Utah. We're comfortable they will compete at a very high level." Utah QB Brian Johnson took it a step further, saying: "If you look at it, it's clear that we're a much better team than Hawaii was last year and I think us (and Hawaii) being two non-BCS teams, that's where the comparison starts and that's where it ends. You look at their strength of schedule last year and you look at the teams they played to get there and look at what we did - I think it's completely different. ... We deserve to be here and hopefully after (the game) there won't be any more questions about that." While their schedule admittedly wasn't as tough as Alabama's schedule, as both Johnson and Hoolahan acknowledged, the Utes have performed well against top name schools and/or teams that went to a bowl this season. They beat quality teams like BYU, TCU and Oregon State while also winning on the road at both Air Force and Michigan. Overall, they outscored opponents by an average score of 38.2 to 14.5 on the road. Opponents managed an average of a mere 227.7 yards of offense in Utah's road games. This is a big bowl game and the Utes are thrilled to be here. As Johnson's comments reveal, they're also thrilled However, the same can't necessarily be said of the Crimson Tide, as they were 15 minutes away from a spot in the BCS title game. However, they couldn't make a 20-17 fourth quarter lead hold up against Florida and therefore had to "settle" for a spot in the Sugar Bowl. Nick Saban didn't try to hide the fact that his team was disappointed, saying: "Our players are certainly disappointed..." While the Tide are saying all the right things about "bouncing back," that can often be a lot easier said than done. Note that Alabama is just 3-7 SU the last 10 times it was coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent in its previous game. The Utes have been terrific in the underdog role for years. In fact, they're a highly profitable 40-19-1 ATS the last 60 times that they were getting points, winning more than half (32) of those games outright. Look for the Utes to improve on those numbers here, delivering a huge effort and showing that, unlike Hawaii last year, they fully deserve to be here. *Bowl GOY

Mr. IWS

01-02-2009, 09:40 AM

Larry Ness' Bowl GOY

Ole Miss made a terrible decision in getting rid of David Cutcliffe after the Rebels went 4-7 in 2003. After all, the Rebels had gone to just FIVE bowls from 1972 through 1996 but from 1999 through 2003, he took the Rebels to four bowl games, including a 31-28 Cotton Bowl win over Okla St in Eli Manning's senior season, the year before Cutcliffe was fired. Ed Orgeron was brought in and he "talked a good game" but delivered a pathetic 10 wins in just three seasons. Fortunately for Ole Miss fans, the school's next coaching move was a gem, getting Houston Nutt. The Rebels responded in a big way to Nutt, beating Florida (the 2006 national champs) 31-30 in Gainesville on Sep 27 and LSU (the defending national champs) 31-13 in Baton Rogue on Nov 22. The Rebels had won just 14 games over the previous four years and after going 0-8 in the SEC last year (3-9 overall), finished 5-3 in league play and 8-4 overall, ending the regular season on a five-game winning streak to nab this bowl invite. Nutt's team was competitive in its four losses too, with each coming by a TD or less and by a total of just 19 points. Jevan Snead (who transferred from Texas to get away from Colt McCoy), became eligible TY and was pretty good (55.7% / 2,470 yards / 23 TDs and 12 INTs). The running game averages 167.5 YPG (4.6 YPC), although no back had more than 644 yards. Dexter McCluster was a WR last year but was used in the team's "Wild Rebel" formation this year, rushing for 558 yards (5.9 per) while catching 38 passes. WRs Hodge (42 catches 16.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and Wallace (35 catches / 20.1 YPC / 6 TDs) both own excellent YPC averages. The Ole Miss defense allows 17.8 PPG and 293.8 YPG and both of those averages rank 14th in the nation. However, the Rebels haven't faced an offense like Texas Tech's. Let me note that Tim Tebow had his only 300-yard game of the years vs Ole Miss (24-of-38 for 319 yards) and the following week, Chris Smelley of South Carolina, a QB who threw just 13 TDs and 15 INTs on the year and has since lost his starting job, had 327 yards passing with three TDs vs the Rebels. I shudder to think what a motivated Graham Harrell might do. The key here is, I believe Harrell, the entire Tech team and coach Mike Leach will ALL be highly motivated for this game. Yes, Tech is disappointed that its 11-1 season (tying the single-season school record for wins previously set in 1953 and 1973) couldn't get them a BCS bowl bid but note that a loss here, would completely ruin Tech's year. Harrell completed 71.5 percent of this throws for 4,747 yards. He has 32 career 300-yard games with 20 of those games being of the 400-yard variety. He enters this game with 15,429 career passing yards, the second-most yards all-time (Timmy Chang of Hawaii is the all-time leader with 17,072 yards) and his 130 TD passes is second to only Colt Brennan (131) on the all-time list. Harrell was NOT even invited to New York as a Heisman finalist. He HAS something to prove and take note of what he's done in his previous two bowl games. He threw for 445 yards with two TDs plus ran for another, as the Red Raiders pulled off the biggest comeback in bowl history in 2006, rallying from 31 points down to beat Minnesota, 44-41 (OT) in the Insight Bowl. He then threw for 407 yards and three scores in LY's Gator Bowl, helping Texas Tech overcome a 17-point deficit in the final four minutes of a 31-28 win over Virginia. In the second halves of Harrell's two bowl games, the Red Raiders have outscored their opponents, 71-13! WR Michael Crabtree had 93 receptions for 1,135 yards and 18 TDs this season, becoming the first repeat winner of the Biletnikoff Award (nation's country's top receiver), after he was the first freshman to win the honor in 2007. Leach is known for his passing attack but the team's 118.9 YPG on the ground (4.7 YPC / 28 TDs), is the highest in the Leach era. Tech's OL averages 6' 6" and more than 320 pounds and has allowed just 12 sacks (Harrell attempted 568 passes!). While Tech doesn't run often, Batch (742 yards / 6.7 YPC / 7 TDs) and Woods (670 yards / 5.0 YPC / 12 TDs) have been amazingly efficient. One also can't overlook the Tech defense, which also produced a Leach era-best, allowing 133.5 YPG on the ground (3.9 YPC). I am a big fan of Houston Nutt, but this is a tough matchup for him. The 'public' and 'wise guys' are "all over" Ole Miss in this game but I see no way the Rebels can trade scores with Texas Tech. Entering its Nov 22 game at Norman, Texas Tech had scored at least 30 points in 14 straight games but as we all know, the Red Raiders were never in that game, losing 65-21. Tech entered that game No. 2 in the nation but that one loss crippled the team's chances for a shot at the national championship game and made them a long shot to even appear in the Big 12 title game (they didn't). Tech's "let down" game came the next Saturday in a home game with Baylor and the "after effects" of the Oklahoma loss were in evidence. Tech was sloppy and when the Bears scored on their opening drive of the third quarter, Tech was down 28-14. However, showing what he was made of (playing with a injury to his throwing hand and without Crabtree), Harrell led the Red Raiders to three second-half TDs and a 35-28 win. Tech enters the game averaging 536.2 YPG and 44.6 PPG (both figures rank 4th in the nation). After scoring 35 points vs Baylor, Tech has now scored 30 or more in 27 of its last 30 games and while the Ole Miss 'D' has been very good this year, remember that Tebow and even Chris Smelley, 'lit them up.' Tech's a much better program than most people realize. The Red Raiders have now posted 16 consecutive non-losing seasons and are the ONLY school in the Big 12 to have posted consecutive winning seasons, despite playing in the much tougher South Division (with Okla, Okla. St, Texas and Tex A&M). As for Mike Leach, he's now led Tech to a bowl game in all NINE of his seasons at Lubbock and the man who had "any number of chances" to capitalize on Tech's tremendous 2008 season, decided to stay put with the Red Raiders. This will be Tech's 32nd all-time bowl but the Red Raiders are just 10-20-1. However, after losing in his first two bowl appearances with the Red Raiders, Leach has won FIVE of the last six. Tech has never played in a BCS bowl and in three previous Cotton Bowls (the school's biggest bowl stage to-date), the Red Raiders have gone 0-3, losing in games following the 1938 and 1994 seasons, plus following the 2005 season under Leach, when Alabama kicked a game-winning 45-yard FG with 0:00. That was then and this is now. Harrell took over at QB the last two seasons and I've already given you his bowl resume. This time around, no second-half dramatics will be necessary, as the Red Raiders win "in style!"

Bowl Game of the Year Texas Tech

Larry's Las Vegas Insider- NCAA Football

Alabama has a great bowl history, as this Sugar Bowl appearance marks its NCAA-leading 56th bowl game (31 wins, including an 8-4 mark in 12 previous Sugar Bowls). In fact, the Sugar Bowl has been very good to Alabama, last appearing after the 1992 season, when its 34-13 win over then-No. 1 Miami-Florida capped a 13-0 season and gave head coach Gene Stallings his only national title. Legendary coach Bear Bryant won national titles at Alabama after Sugar Bowl victories following the 1962, '78 and '79 seasons. While Utah can't match Alabama's longtime bowl success, the Utes became the first non-BCS school to crash the BCS bowl 'party' back in 2004, when Urban Meyer's team (led by QB Alex Smith) capped a 12-0 season with a 35-7 win over Pittsburgh in the Fiesta Bowl. This year's Sugar Bowl will be Utah's sixth straight bowl appearance and with Boston College losing on Dec 31 to Vandy in the Music City Bowl, the Utes' seven-game bowl winning streak is the longest active one in all of college football. Utah (12-0) is the only remaining unbeaten team in CFB in 2008, now that Boise State lost to TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl and with 13 consecutive wins (going back to LY's 35-32 bowl win over Navy), the Utes also stand alone with the longest active winning streak in CFB (Alabama had won 13 straight as well, before losing 31-20 to Florida in the SEC championship game). Just how good are the Utes? They are clearly better than LY's Hawaii team which was dominated by Georgia 41-10 in LY's Sugar Bowl but I don't think they are anywhere near as good as their previous BCS bowl team in 2004 or the Boise St team which finished 13-0 in the 2006 season, with that dramatic and memorable 43-42 overtime win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. Brian Johnson (68.3 percent / 2,636 yards / 24 TDs and 9 INTs) is a quality QB and a "winner" but his receivers corps is rather mediocre. Utah owns nice balance on offense with 236.8 YPG passing and 168.4 YPG (4.3 YPC and 23 TDs) on the ground. Again however, the team's main two running backs are rather ordinary, with Asiata (666 YR / 5.0 YPC / 11 TDs) and Mack (533 YR / 4.5 YPC / 3 TDs) hardly distinguishing themselves. Utah went 4-0 in games decided by three points or less this year, plus won at Air Force 30-23, by scoring the game-winning TD with just 58 seconds left. Utah caught Oregon St in the very first game after its stunning upset of USC (a great spot for the Utes), yet trailed 28-20 late, before scoring a TD (plus a two-point conversion) with 1:29 left, then winning the game on a 37-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock. In a Thursday night game at home vcs TCU (the team I feel is the best non-BCS conference team), the Utes did little or nothing all game and only missed opportunities by TCU (two INTs and two missed FGs were 'killers'), kept Utah alive. Johnson was brilliant in a last-minute 80-yard TD drive (completed 7-of-9 passes for all 80 yards), that gave Utah a 13-10 win. However, let's note that the Alabama defense the Utes face is very similar to TCU's, which held the Utes in check all game (had gained less than 200 yards before that final drive) and held Utah's running game to 45 yards on 25 attempts (1.8 YPC). No one stopped the run better than TCU this year, but Alabama's 'D' was no slouch, allowing 78.8 YPG (2.8 YPC) and only four rushing TDs. It ranks third in total D (256.9 YPG ) and sixth in scoring (13.0 PPG). Utah does not have the speed and play-making ability on offense to score much vs Alabama, which held NINE of its 13 opponents to 14 points or less. The Alabama offense is hardly prolific but it made one or zero turnovers in 11 of its 13 games. JP Wilson is a mediocre QB (57.8 percent / 1,655 yards / 6 TDs and 5 INTs) but he doesn't make mistakes. The running game is very good, averaging 196.5 YPG (4.8 YPC) with 32 TDs. Coffee has 1,347 yards (6.1 YPC and 10 TDs) and with 125 yards in the Sugar Bowl, can break Bobby Humphrey's single-season school rushing mark. Ingram is more than just a by-stander in the backfield, adding 702 yards (5.2 YPC) and 12 TDs. Other than Jones (51 catches / 16.6 YPC / 4 TDs), there are no pass-catchers of note but Alabama is the perfect example of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts. Saban's had his team properly prepared for every big test this year. Alabama met then-No. 9 Clemson in its season-opener in the Georgia Dome and led 23-3 at the half in a 34-10 win. At then-No.3 Georgia on Sep 27, the Tide rolled to a 31-0 halftime lead "between the hedges," in a 41-30 win and the Tide earned a hard-fought 27-21 OT win in Baton Rogue over LY's defending national champs, after LSU jumped to a 14-7 ead after the first quarter. In the SEC title game against Florida, the Gators scored on the their first possession to lead 7-0 but Alabama outscored the Gators 20-10, taking a 20-17 lead into the fourth quarter, before Tim Tebow played arguably his best quarter of football in his career. Now, Saban has a chance to validate the season by bouncing back from that loss with a convincing win over a very beatable foe. Anything less, will leave Alabama fans wondering just how good this team is. I for one, think it's pretty good and that this Utah team would have been lucky to finish .500 playing in the SEC.

Las Vegas Insider on Alabama