1/5/09

Brandon Lang
Monday ... 20-Dime Texas

FREE PICK - Ohio State-Texas Over

Dr Bob
2 Star Selection
Ohio St. (+9) 23 TEXAS 24
Fiesta Bowl
05-Jan-09 05:15 PM Pacific Time
Texas is a very tough team to figure out, as their rating based on compensated point margins varies significantly from their rating based on compensated yardage, turnovers, etc. more than any team in the nation. In other words, the Longhorns have out-played their stats by a huge margin. The question is whether that discrepancy is random variance or if the Longhorns are actually much more efficient with their yardage than a normal team with the same stats would be - and whether that extreme level of efficiency will continue in this game. Either way, the Buckeyes are still the side to take in this game.
Texas was an impressive team statistically this season, out-gaining their opponents 6.6 yards per play to 5.3 yppl while facing a schedule of teams that would out-gain an average team 5.9 yppl to 5.3 yppl – so the Longhorns were 1.9 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage. Ohio State, meanwhile, is 0.9 yppl better than average offensively with RB Beanie Wells healthy (he missed time early in the season) and with Terrelle Pryor at quarterback (he’s been a huge upgrade over original starter Todd Boeckman) and the Buckeyes are 1.1 yppl better than average defensively (4.6 yppl allowed to Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team). Ohio State is 2.0 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage, so they actually have a slight edge in this game from the line of scrimmage while also having an advantage in projected turnovers (by 0.25 turnovers) and in special teams. Ohio State is a better team than Texas based on the stats and my math model favors the Buckeyes to win straight up.

Unfortunately, it’s not as simple as looking at the projected yardage, turnovers, etc, as Texas out-played their stats by 11.0 points per game. Let me explain. A team with the Longhorns statistics (i.e. out-gaining their opponents by 133 total yards, by 1.3 yppl, with a +0.25 average turnover margin and with their special teams numbers) would normally out-score their opponents by 14.3 points per game. Texas, however, out-scored their opponents by an average margin of 25.3 points (43.9 to 18.6 points). Usually, the actual point margin is within a few points of the projected margin based on the stats and the difference is usually something like higher than expected 3rd down efficiencies or red-zone scoring, but I’ve never seen a discrepancy of anywhere close to 11.0 points between the projected and actual point margin. The good news is that my math favors Ohio State by 5 ½ points based on the projected stats in this game, so I’d favor Texas by only 5 ½ points even if they continue to out-play their stats by 11 points per game (which is unlikely). Texas also didn’t out-play their stats by as much against good opponents, as they only out-played their stats by 4.2 points against Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. However, Texas also played better from the line of scrimmage in those games, on a relative basis, rating at +2.3 yppl instead of +1.9 yppl (their season rating). Using only the Longhorns’ games against other very good teams (which is reasonable since Ohio State is in that category) would result in a prediction of Texas by only 1 ½ points even if added the 4.2 points that they out-played their stats in those games.

Ohio State only had two games against elite teams, at USC in week 3 and at home against Penn State in week 9. The USC game resulted in a 10-35 loss as the Buckeyes were out-gained 3.3 yppl to 5.6 yppl by the Trojans, who have the best rating in the nation from the line of scrimmage and would out-gain an average team by 3.8 yppl at home. Ohio State was still 1.5 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage in that game (-2.3 yppl + 3.8 yppl for playing at USC) even without star RB Beanie Wells, who was injured and didn’t play and withTerrelle Pryor only coming into the game when it was too late. Wells is much better than the other Ohio State running backs and Pryor is much better than Boeckman, who had 25 pass plays for just 54 yards in that game and threw 2 picks. I can approximate how well the Buckeyes would have played offensively with Wells healthy and with Pryor playing the entire game at quarterback by substituting in the difference in the compensated statistics for Ohio State’s running game with Wells and the Buckeyes’ compensated running rating in the 3 games without him while also adding in the difference between Pryor’s compensated yards per pass play rating and Boeckman’s compensated yppp rating for the 25 pass plays the Boeckman had in that game. Had Wells and Pryor been the starting backfield for Ohio State I project that they would have averaged 4.2 yppl at USC rather than the 3.3 yppl that they did average in that game. That would make them +2.4 yppl for the game had they been playing with the offense that they have now. Perhaps that too much speculation, but Ohio State would have certainly been better than their decent +1.5 yppl rating that they did have in that game. Ohio State was +2.4 yppl from the line of scrimmage against Penn State, out-gaining the Nittany Lions 5.1 yppl to 4.9 yppl and losing by 3 points because of a -2 in turnover margin. Penn State would out-gain an average team by 2.2 yppl on the road, so that makes the Buckeyes +2.4 yppl, which is exactly what I projected they would have been at USC with their current lineup. Like the Longhorns, Ohio State also played better than normal in games against elite teams and I’m convinced that they’ll be able to match Texas from the line of scrimmage and at the very least keep this game close even if Texas out-plays their stats.

In addition to the line value, Ohio State applies to a 52-17-1 ATS situation while Texas applies to a negative 22-50 ATS situation. I’ll take Ohio State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more. I’ll also lean with the Under in this game at 51 points or higher.

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

3* play Ohio State

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's Las Vegas Insider-Fiesta Bowl (9*)

Larry swept both 9* plays this NFL weekend, winning with Atl/Arz Over and then with Philly. He and his "unmatched" contacts typically assign an 8* rating to his Las Vegas Insider plays (at CE) but in NFL Week 11, gave a 9* rating to his Las Vegas Insider play on TB ov Min and won. Tonight's Fiesta Bowl also gets a 9* rating.



TEXAS LONGHORNS

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

Las Vegas Insider Bowl GOY
Texas

Superstar Triple Play - CBB
James Madison
Notre Dame
San Jose State

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS


*9* MAIN EVENT! (won HUGE with WVU in '08!)

Burns CRUSHED the books with his "Main Event" on WVU in last year's Fiesta Bowl & he LOVES this year's matchup. Ben finished '08 on a MAJOR RUN, dominating December from wire-to-wire. His ME's were a HUGE part of that success & they'll surely continue to be a CASH COW in '09. Ben's most recent "M.E." was an EASY WINNER & this one will be too!


OHIO STATE

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Georgetown
Millionaire- Ohio St
Money Maker- SMU

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob
3 Star Selection
JAMES MADISON (-4) over Drexel
05-Jan-09 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Drexel has won 3 consecutive games, all as road underdogs, but teams coming off 3 consecutive upset wins are bad bets in their next game and the Dragons apply to a negative 47-116-4 ATS letdown situation that is based on that premise. James Madison led most of the way in their 1 point loss at Towson, but to lose by just 1 point and tie the spread is actually pretty impressive considering the Dukes made just 1 of 15 3-point shots (they’re a very good 38% for the season) and only 8 of 15 free throws (they’re 75.4% for the season). James Madison was right in that game despite the poor outside shooting because Juwann James is tough to stop in the paint and scored 24 points. James missed 7 games in November and early December, but the Dukes have been considerably better since his return to the lineup on December 14th. In those 6 games James Madison’s average game rating is about 6 points better than their season rating and that improvement is not factored into the line. The Dukes are so improved that they can be 1 for 15 from 3-point range and still push against the point spread. My ratings favor JMU by 6 points in this game and I’ll take James Madison in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 2-Stars from -4 ½ to -6 points.
3-Stars at -4 or less, 2-Stars up to -6.

2 Star Selection
NC Wilmington (+24 ½) over VCU
05-Jan-09 06:00 PM Pacific Time
NC Wilmington has allowed a horrible 51.7% shooting this season, but that number is likely to improve going forward and the Seahawks apply to a very good 64-19-2 ATS big road underdog situation tonight. My ratings favor VCU by 23 ½ points even after accounting for the high pace of this game. Wilmington is a decent offensive team that shoots 27 3-point shots per game at a better than average 34.8% success rate. The Seahawks should get plenty of good looks from 3-point range against a VCU squad that has allowed 39.3% from 3-point range so far this season. The situation is good and the line is fair, so I’ll take NC Wilmington in a 2-Star Best Bet at +23 points or more.
2-Stars at +23 or more.

[Mr. IWS]

PPP- 4%Ohio St.

[Mr. IWS]

NESS

Weekly Wipeout Winner- NBA (From Another Site)
SA Spurs

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
4 james madison, idaho
3 towson st, wisc gb