1/7/09

::clover::

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CBB (9*)

"The little school" from the state of Washington has made quite an impression on the CBB 'landscape' the last decade, making 10 straight NCAA appearances. Mark Few has led the Bulldogs the last nine seasons, taking a 236-60 (.797) mark into this year. The Bulldogs opened 7-0 this season but have fallen on hard times, losing FOUR of their last five, including three in a row. Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, Tennessee, where the No. 15 Volunteers (9-3) own a 37-game winning streak (dates back to March 1, 2006), is not exactly the perfect setting to get things "back on track." It's made worse by the fact that the Bulldogs gave the Volunteers their first loss of the season back on Nov 30 at the Old Spice Classic in Orlando, Fla (83-74). Tennessee shot just 35.5 percent in that game, while Gonzaga made 51.9 percent of its shots, including 11-of-20 from 'long distance.' Things haven't been "smooth sailing" for the Vols either as of late, having lost 88-71 at Temple (?) on Dec 13 and 92-85 this past Saturday at Kansas. I'm not quite sure what's going on with Gonzaga, as the Zags have two excellent 6-11 players in Heytvelt (14.9-6.4) and Daye (12.5-6.1) plus a terrific PG in Pargo (10.1-3.8-6.9), who was LY's WCC player of the year. Pargo has a trio of big guards on the perimeter with him, in the 6-5 Bouldin (11.3), the 6-5 Gray (10.4-3.8) and the 6-7 Downs (9.3-4.9). That's the type of lineup which would have given LY's Tennessee team fits but TY's team is better equipped to handle Gonzaga's size on the perimeter. Tennessee had a school-best 31 wins last season and even held the No. 1 ranking for a week (after winning at unbeaten Memphis) but with three 6-1 or 6-2 guards on the perimeter LY, the Vols were vulnerable and they got 'bounced' in the Sweet 16 by Louisville. TY, Pearl starts the 6-2 Maze (9.9-4.4 APG) at guard along with the 6-4 Tabb (4.0) and 6-7 freshman Hopson (9.0). LY's sixth-man-of-the-year in the SEC, the 6-7 Prince (10.2-3.8), plus 6-6 redshirt freshman Tatum (9.3) are also getting plenty of minutes on the perimeter. Up front, the 6-7 Tyler Smith (17.3-5.9) and the 6-9 Chism (12.3-8.5) are the "main guys," with 6-8 freshman Woolridge (6.3-29) "learning the ropes." The first time around, the Vols outrebounded Gonzaga 46-23 but couldn't overcome their poor shooting or the Bulldogs' "lights-out" shooting. Here in the "friendly confines," the outcome will be much different. Gonzaga's lost to a mediocre Arizona team in Phoenix and even at home to Portland State. The linemakers have NOT adjusted enough to the "demise of the Bulldogs."

Oddsmaker's Error on Tennessee


Larry's Weekly Wipeout Winner - NCAA


Tulane was a HUGE surprise last year, getting off to a 15-6 start. However, the Green Wave faded badly, losing NINE of their last 11 games. Tulane has just one double digit scorer this year, in guard Sims (12.2-3.8 APG). He's joined in the backcourt by Richard (9.0) and the team's frontcourt consists of three 6-7 players, Louisme (9.5-6.8), McQueen (8.2-5.4) and Puckett (7.6-5.4). ECU is off an 11-19 season and lost four starters, which was good news. The lone returning starter is guard Hinnant and he's played very well, averaging 15.5 PPG and 4.5 RPG. He's joined in the backcourt by two reserves from LY, Legan (13.3) and Young (11.2-8.1 APG), with both playing much better than expected to open this season. The 6-10 Wynn (8.6-5.1) is the lone big man in the starting lineup but 6-8 freshman Morrow (10.1-7.9) is making a big "first impression." The other starter is 6-5 swingman Abrams (7.9-4.0), giving ECU a much better than expected group of six players in its main rotation (not much depth). The Pirates started 8-1 but enter their C-USA opener on a four-game losing streak. However, it should be noted that THREE of those losses have come against ACC teams, although the team's "sad-sack" effort at Coastal Carolina was nothing to be proud of. All that said, I like ECU here, as the Pirates have an excellent perimeter game (against this level of competition) plus Wynn and Morrow should not have too much trouble with Tulane's "mediocre at best," frontline. The Green Wave are 0-4 SU on the road TY, losing by 25 points at Texas and Auburn, while losing at New Orleans (a SBC team which is only 6-8) by 10 and George Mason by eight. Tulane won both meetings with ECU last year but the "new-look" Pirates are the much better team this time around.

Weekly Wipeout Winner on East Carolina

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's 7* MVC Showdown

Barry Hinson tried but couldn't get Missouri St an invite to the "Big Dance" in nine years of trying. In both 2006 and 2007 his Bears had 22 wins with RPI's of 21 and 36, respectively but the school got shut out. A 17-16 season last year, "sealed his fate." Cuonzo Martin, former Purdue player and recent assistant coach at his alma mater, was hired. The Bears opened 7-3 under Martin but the team has dropped four in a row, including the first three games in its MVC schedule (not good news). Leading scorer, 6-4 senior swingman Chris Cooks (12.1-5.6), has missed the last three games witha concussion and is expected to miss again here. Missouri State has some decent size in its frontcourt, now that 6-9 Boston U center Creekmore (9.7-6.0) is eligible (he's played the last six games). Joining him inside are the 6-8 Knapp (9.5-5.0), 6-6 freshman Weems (9.4-3.9) and the 6-6 Jehle (5.1-4.6). Laurie (10.8-2.4-2.9), McFarland (6.0) and Fuehrmeyer (5.3) comprise the backcourt rotation. Evansville basketball has been in a slump for awhile and head coach Marty Simmons went just 9-21 in his first year with the Purple Aces. However, his team is 10-3 to open this year, 2-1 in MVC play. That's quite an improvement, as he's already exceeded last year's win total. The Purple Aces can't match Missouri State's size inside but senior swingman Ely (17.8-6.4) and PG Holsinger (12.6) will likely be the game's two-best players. Williams (6.3-4.3-4.6) and Lacey (5.6-3.1-2.4) are solid perimeter players plus senior swingman Garner (10.0-6.4) and 6-7 Haarsma (7.5-4.8) will help Ely out in the frontcourt. Evansville has some size in the 6-11 van Tongeren (5.1-2.7) but I wouldn't count on him too much. Evansville has been perfect at home TY, going 9-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. That includes an impressive 72-40 win over Western Kentucky, a program which has topped 20 wins in each of the last four seasons, including 29 wins LY, as the Hilltoppers reached the Sweet 16. Evansville also owns a home win over Drake (76-65), last year's MVC champs (regular aseson and tourney), a team which won 28 games before losing that classic first-round game to the aforementioned Western Ky in the NCAAs. Evansville beat Missouri St at home last year by 19 points but then lost in Springfield by 38 points and in the MVC tourney, 69-46. The Purple Aces are playing with confidence right now at Roberts Stadium and the Bears (especially sans Cook), are no match.

MVC Showdown on Evansville

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Evansville -8
Millionaire- Syracuse -13
Billionaire- Northwestern +8

[Mr. IWS]

LANG

Wednesday
5 Dime South Florida - Analysis due back by 4 p.m. eastern

5 Dime Duke -

FREE - Georgia State


National Championship winner ...
50 Dime Florida

Analysis on this game due back by 7 p.m. eastern Wednesday night.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness Superstar Triple Play- NBA ( 7* Plays )

Hawks

Bucks

Jazz

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob
Wednesday NBA Opinion
DENVER (-5 ½) over Miami
Denver will be without the overrated Carmelo Anthony (great offense, but bad defense) for awhile but the Nuggets are still 116-63-1 ATS when rested, not laying more than 12 points and facing a team with a win percentage of less than .625. In other words, Denver tends to play their best with rest against mediocre and bad teams. The record of that trend without Anthony is 11-3 ATS, as the oddsmakers tend to over-adjust the line for his absence. Denver also applies to a 190-91-8 ATS home favorite momentum situation and my ratings favor the Nuggets by 6 ½ points without Carmelo. My only problem with this game is that Miami tends to play much better after a loss than they do after a win and the Heat are 5-1 ATS as a dog after a loss this season. I’ll pass on making this game a Best Bet, but I’ll lean with Denver at -6 or less.

Wednesday College Opinion
SOUTHERN MISS (-5) over Tulsa
Southern Miss hasn’t played up to their potential yet, but the Eagles have developed a pattern under head coach Larry Eustachy of playing poorly early and improving once conference season starts. Southern Miss is just 12-15-1 ATS in non-conference games since the 2005/06 season, but the Eagles are 37-15-1 ATS in conference games during that time, including 18-3 ATS as a favorite and 18-4-1 ATS at home. Tulsa is just 4-14 ATS as an underdog of 17 points or less since last season, including 1-5 ATS this season, and my ratings favor Southern Miss by 5 ½ points – so the line is fair. I’ll lean with the Eagles at -6 or less and I’d take Southern Miss for a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob
2 Star Selection
BOSTON (-10) over Houston
07-Jan-09 04:35 PM Pacific Time
Boston is playing much better at home than they are on the road and they are surely happy to be back home after going 1-5 straight up on the road since Christmas day. Boston is 18-1 straight up at home with 12 of those 19 games being won by double-digits and the Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and 46-27-1 ATS at home since last season, including 9-2 ATS after losing straight up as a favorite in their last game. Houston has been struggling lately with stars Tracy McGrady and Ron Artest being in and out of the lineup and tonight it looks like McGrady is out and Artest may play on his sprained ankle after missing the last 2 games. McGrady actually isn’t that important and my ratings would favor Boston by 9 ½ points with Artest playing at 100% and I’d favor the Celtics by 12 ½ points if Artest doesn’t play at all, so a line of 10 points is more than fair and Boston applies to a very good 31-2 ATS subset of a 70-25-1 ATS home favorite bounce-back situation. The Rockets are 0-3 straight up and 0-3 ATS against the elite 3 teams in the league this season (Boston, Cleveland, and the Lakers) and they had Yao Ming, McGrady, and Artest playing in all 3 of those games. I’ll take Boston in a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less.
2-Stars at -11 or less.

COLLEGE
2 Star Selection
Northeastern (-3) over GEORGIA STATE
07-Jan-09 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Northeastern has a habit of beating mediocre and bad teams, as the Huskies are 18-7 ATS against teams with a win percentage of less than .550 as long as they’re not favored by 10 points or more, including 2-0 ATS this season. Georgia State is certainly a team that Northeastern should beat, as my ratings favor the Huskies by 4 ½ points using all of Georgia State’s games and my 5 ½ points using the 9 games playing without F Chris Echols, who is no longer on the team. Echols was the team’s best rebounder (5.6 per game in just 21.6 minutes) and also played good defense (1.2 blocks per game) and The Panthers have been about a 2 couple of points per game worse without him. Aside from the line value Northeastern applies to a solid 102-46-3 ATS road momentum situation. I’ll take Northeastern in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.
2-Stars at -4 or less.

2 Star Selection
James Madison (+9 ½) over OLD DOMINION
07-Jan-09 04:00 PM Pacific Time
I don’t understand this line at all. I’ve been on James Madison recently, as they are a much improved team with big man Juwann James back in the lineup after missing 7 games early in the season. James averages 15.5 points on 57.5% shooting while also leading the Dukes in rebounds (5.8 rpg) and contributing on the defensive side of the floor (1.0 steals, 0.8 blocks). James Madison is 3.8 points better in 8 games with James than they are in the 7 games he missed and they are 4-1-1 ATS since he returned to the lineup. I’ve been on James Madison for Best Bets the last two games and they’ve pushed one and covered the other by just 2 points, but that’s actually pretty impressive given that JMU was a combined 4 for 26 from 3-point range and just 66% from the line combined in those two games, which is well below their season average of 37.6% 3-point shooting and 75% free throws. Had James Madison not been so horrible from 3-point range they would have covered the spread in those two games easily and I’m on them again today. My ratings using all games for the season would only favor Old Dominion by 5 ½ points and using only games in which James has played results in a prediction of ODU by only 3 ½ points. In addition to the line value, Old Dominion is just 19-40-1 ATS after a conference win when facing a team with a win percentage of .444 or higher in 8 seasons under coach Blaine Taylor and James Madison applies to a very strong 53-11-4 ATS big underdog momentum situation at +10 or more. I’ll take James Madison in a 2-Star Best Bet at +8 points or more and for 3-Stars from +10 or more.
2-Stars at +8 or more, 3-Stars at +10 or more.

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
4 depaul, st bonny, harvard
3 j madison, s miss, rutgers, magic, celtics, jazz

[Mr. IWS]

spritzer
raptors
heat
thunder
cinc
evansville
louisville