1/8/09

Big Al 5*

Florida Gators

Ness 25

Florida

Lang 50

Florida

Larry's 25-Club Play-BCS Title Game )


The BCS title game is a tale of two teams but also two QBs. First to the QBs. The Gators suffered what looked to be a devastating 31-30 loss at home to Ole Miss (Florida missed an extra-point) on September 27. Devastating in terms of Florida's national title hopes and to Tebow's chances of joining Archie Griffin as just the Heisman's second repeat-winner. While Tebow had a season-high 319 yards passing in the Ole Miss game plus two rushing TDs, he had thrown for just six TDs and rushed for only 125 yards (2.6 YPC) over Florida's first four games. Tebow guaranteed after that loss that no team and in fact no player, would work harder the rest of the year than he and his Gator teammates. Tebow was a prophet. The Gators enter their second national championship game in three seasons on a nine-game winning streak (8-0 ATS), winning by the combined scores of 445-117. The most recent win in that nine-game streak came in Florida's 31-20 win over then-No. 1 Alabama in the SEC championship game. Tebow completed 14-of-22 passes for 216 yards with three TDs and no INTs, while adding 57 yards rushing on 17 carries. Tebow had 22 TD passes (just two INTs) plus added 10 rushing TDs in Florida's nine-game winning streak. As for Bradford, he capped a memorable regular season by completing 34-of-49 passes for 384 yards with two TDs and no INTs, as Oklahoma cruised to a 62-21 win over Missouri in the Big 12 championship game. Much has been made of Florida's nine-game winning streak since the Ole Miss loss, but how about Oklahoma's seven-game winning streak since the Texas loss? Bradford topped 300 yards in six of those seven games, throwing 25 TD passes against just one INT, plus added three rushing TDs. The Sooners averaged 59.9 PPG during those seven games, becoming the first team in CFB history to top 60 points in five straight games, over the team's final five games of that streak). The Sooners have scored 702 points (54.0 per), the first team in modern history to crack the 700-point plateau. Bradford had a terrific freshman year in 2007, throwing for 3,121 yards (69.5 percent completions) with 36 TDs and eight INTs. His 36 TD passes were a new NCAA freshman single-season record and his QB rating of 176.52 led the nation. His current QB rating of 186.3 again leads the nation and he's already easily surpassed last year's TD pass (48) and passing yards (4,464) totals, with his BCS title game showdown against Tebow and Florida still left to be played. Bradford has 11, 300-yard passing games this season, breaking the single-season school record set by Josh Heupel (eight) in 1999 and 13 in his career (two have been 400-plus games). His 48 TD passes for the year extends the school record he already owns, surpassing the 40 Jason White threw in his 2003 Heisman season. How dominant have Bradford's first two seasons really been? His two TD passes against Missouri extends his total to 84 through his sophomore season, which is the all-time record for any QB through his first two seasons (freshman and sophomore years). Who is second on that list? Try Rex Grossman, who had 55 TD passes in his first two years with the Gators. So does this come down to just Tebow vs Bradford? Not at all. Let's call the QB battle even (for the sake of argument) and let's give the Gators an edge with Percy Harvin (35 catches / 17.0 YPC / 7 TDs plus 538 yards rushing / 8.8 YPC / 9 TDs) at 90 percent for this game while DeMarco Murray (1,000 YR / 5.6 YPC / 14 TDs plus 31 catches) is listed as out. Also, it's hard to not argue in favor of Florida owning the besrt defense, as teh Gators have allowes about 80 YPG less this year than the Sooners, while allowing 12.8 PPG to Oklahoma's 24.5. However, here's why I really think this is a two-TD win for the Gators. Reason No. 1 is that the Big 12 South has been 'exposed' in this year's bowl season. Oklahoma St led Oregon 17-7 in the Holiday Bowl only to lose 42-31, allowing 565 yards. Texas Tech jumped out 14-0 (in the semi-home field environment of the Cotton Bowl) on Ole Miss, only to lose 47-34 (allowed 515 yards). Then there is Texas, which led the "BCs title-game whipping boys" frnm Ohio St 17-6 in the 4th quarter of Monday's Fiesta Bowl, only to almost lose. Texas watched helplessly as the Buckeyes (representing the Big 10, which concluded TY's bowl season 1-6!) drove 80 and 73 yards om consecutive possessions, to grab a 21-17 lead. While the terrific Colt McCoy saved the Longhorns' 'bacon' with a game-winning 11-play, 78-yard drive of his own, the fact is, the Big 12 South teams have looked anything but dominate this bowl season. Then there are the two head coaches. Urban Meyer's legend began at Bowling Green, going 17-6 in 2001-02, including 5-0 vs schools from BCS conferences. He then when to Utah for the next two seasons, winning 22 of 24 games, including leading the Utes to a Fiesta Bowl win over Pitt in 2004, as Utah became the first non-BCS school to play in a BCS Bowl. He's 43-9 at Florida since 2005 and on the verge of his 2nd national championship on Thursday (beat Ohio St 41-14 in 2006, as 7.5-point underdogs!). Oklahoma's Bob Stoops became known as "Big Game Bob" for winning a national title at Oklahoma in his second year (2000) and owning a terrific record against top-10 teams in his first few seasons. However, things began to unravel for that "Big Game Bob" label with a 35-7 loss to Kansas St in the 2003 Big 12 championship game (Sooners were favored by two-TDs) and a subsequent loss to LSU in that year's BCS title game (lost 21-14 as a seven-point favorite). Oklahoma lost the following year in the BCS title game to USC (55-19) and the last two seasons, has lost Fiesta Bowl games to Boise St (you all remember that one!) and West Va, each time as seven-point favorites! Let's not forget that Oklahoma led Texas 28-20 in the 3rd quarter back on October 11, before McCoy led the Longhorns on four straight second-half scoring drives (three TDs and one FG) and to a 45-35 win. Oklahoma won seven straight after that but after this bowl season, is anyone impressed with closing wins over Texas Tech, Okla St and Missouri? Case closed!

25-Club on Florida

Ben Burns

**BIG TOTAL ALERT** Burns' BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR!


UNDER FLA/OKLA

Scott Spriezter

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tko Florida

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's 9* Conference NCAA - Washington Huskies

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Florida
Millionaire- Cal
Insiders Circle- Nevada

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob


Strong OpinionFlorida (-5.0) 42 Oklahoma 32 (at National Championship)
05:15 PM Pacific, 08-Jan-09

I'll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -6 points or less.

Using a pace adjusted approach on total scoring would project 77 total points scored in this game and my math model projects 74 total points, so I'll lean over 72 points or lower.

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

**BIG TOTAL ALERT** Burns' BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR!


UNDER FLA/OKLA
BEST BET

I'm playing on the Mavericks and Knicks to finish UNDER the total. These teams played an extremely high-scoring game against each other earlier this season, a 124-114 Dallas victory. However, while that result has helped in keeping tonight's number generously high, it should be noted that 14 of those points came in overtime. Additionally, that 11/16 game was played at New York, where the fast-tempo Knicks were more easily able to dictate the pace. The Knicks entered that game having seen their two previous contests produce 222 and 235 combined points.

Tonight's game is at Dallas and the Knicks come in having been involved in much lower-scoring recent contests. In fact, they've seen the UNDER go a perfect 4-0 their last four games. Despite those opponents including defensively challenge Indiana and Oklahoma City, those four games still averaged just 196 combined points and none produced more than 2008. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 12-5 their last 17 games. Tonight, the Knicks, who have seen the UNDER go 7-3 the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss, will face a Mavericks defense which is capable of slowing them down - note that the Knicks scored 79 their last visit here.

The Mavs have held nine straight opponents to 102 points or less. Tuesday's game vs. the Clippers which finished 'over' notwithstanding, they've seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 15-5 the last 20 times that they faced a team with a losing record. The Mavs have also seen the UNDER go 17-9 this season when listed as favorites. That includes a 3-1 mark when listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. A look at the Mavs' last 14 games shows that 13 of them produced 209 combined points or less. Look for this evening's game to also prove lower-scoring than most are expecting. *Best Bet


BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR!

FLA/OKLA UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

5* Florida (Cfb) (was released at -3 a few days ago)

cbb
3* Iowa
3* Washington State
3* Louisiana Monroe
1* Washington Huskies
1* Florida Atlantic

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

FLORIDA (-5.0) 42 Oklahoma 32
National Championship
08-Jan-09 05:15 PM Pacific Time
Oklahoma averaged a record number of points this season (53.8 per game in 12 games against Division 1A opposition), but there is mounting evidence that the Big 12 South is an overrated division with worse defensive units than previously thought. My math model is very good at sorting out differences in conference strengths and my model mostly picked against the teams from the Big 12 South, as it correctly picked Mississippi to upset Texas Tech and Ohio State to upset Texas. Texas managed to beat the Buckeyes with a touchdown with 15 seconds remaining, but I easily won my bet on Ohio State and Mississippi scored at will in their win against Texas Tech. Ole Miss racked 47 points on 521 yards at 7.3 yards per play against Texas Tech, Oregon scored 42 points on 566 yards at 8.0 yppl against Big 12 South rep Oklahoma State, and Ohio State gained 379 yards at 5.9 yppl against Texas. Oklahoma’s offense is still great, but it certainly doesn’t look quite as amazing after seeing how the Big 12 South’s other teams performed defensively in the bowl games.
The Sooners averaged an incredible 7.2 yppl in 12 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team and they scored 35 points against a TCU defense that I rate as the 2nd best in the nation behind USC. That 35 points was the lowest total of the year for the Sooners, who also scored 35 points against a good Texas defense, so the Sooners have proven that they can score a good number of points even against very good defensive teams. Oklahoma will be facing a very good defensive team tonight, as Florida yielded just 4.5 yppl to 12 Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team. Florida didn’t face an offense as good as Oklahoma’s this season (because Oklahoma had my highest rated offense), but the Gators played at about the same level defensively against the good attacks of Mississippi, Georgia, and Alabama as they did overall and gave up an average of just 20.3 points in those 3 games. Oklahoma’s offense is not going to be quite as good without star RB DeMarco Murray, who will be missed in the passing game more than in the running game (#2 back Chris Brown is just as good), but I still rate the Sooners’ attack at 2.0 yppl better than average without Murray after I take out the stats of the backup quarterbacks – so Oklahoma does have a solid 0.8 yppl advantage over Florida’s good defense.

Florida’s offense is just as good as Oklahoma’s offense on a compensated yards per play basis, as the Gators averaged 7.0 yppl with Tim Tebow in the game while facing teams that would combine to allow 5.0 yppl to an average attack. Oklahoma’s defense, meanwhile, gave up 5.4 yppl to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team, so the Sooners are just 0.4 yppl better than average defensively – giving Florida a 1.6 yppl advantage when they have the ball. Oklahoma’s defense has the same rating as the average of the other 12 Division 1A teams that the Gators faced this season and Florida averaged 43 points in those games and should score around that number in this game.

With both offenses rated about the same from a compensated yards per play perspective and Florida having a much better defense, the Gators are clearly the better team from the line of scrimmage. Oklahoma scored an incredible 53.8 points per game while Florida averaged 43.1 ppg in division 1A games, but the Sooners also averaged 79 plays in their hurry up offense while Florida averaged only 61 plays in the more traditional SEC. If the pace of Florida’s games, which averaged just 123.0 total plays, were as fast-paced as the Oklahoma games (150.9 total plays) then Florida would have averaged 53 points per game – so the Sooners are not really better offensively than the Gators no matter how you look at it. But, Florida is certainly better than Oklahoma defensively even if you look at points and adjust for pace. Florida is also much better in special teams, as the Sooners gave up 4 kickoff return touchdowns and are below average overall in special teams while Florida has good special teams. Oklahoma also isn’t likely to be +2 in turnover margin in this game, which is what they averaged during the season, as Florida averaged a +1.6 in turnover margin in D1A games. In fact, Florida actually has a projected edge in turnovers. Tim Tebow is less likely to get intercepted (he threw just 2 interceptions all season while Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford threw 6 and Florida’s defense had a 5.6% interception rate while Oklahoma’s defense had a 3.6% interception rate. A big part of Oklahoma’s turnover difference was purely luck, as the Sooners were +13 in fumble margin with just 2 lost fumbles all season compared to 15 fumbles recovered by their defense. Fumbles are 90% random in college football, so most of that +13 in fumbles is just random good luck that is not likely to project forward into this game. In other words, the fumbles should be about even in this game and Florida is less likely to throw interceptions. My math model actually projects Florida was a +0.4 turnover margin in this contest.

My math model favors Florida by 14 points in this game after putting it all together and I actually admit that is too high, as it does not take into account Oklahoma’s ability to convert 4th downs into first downs or touchdowns and to score in the redzone at a higher rate than normal. To take those factors into account I can use a compensated points model. I’ll use a simple version to give you the concept. Oklahoma out-scored their Division 1A opponents by an average of 27.4 points while facing a schedule of teams that was 7.7 points better than average, so they are +35.1 points better than average based on that. Florida, meanwhile, out-scored their 1A opponents by 30.8 points (43.1 to 12.3) while facing a schedule that was 5.8 points better than average, so the Gators are +36.6 points better than average using that simple analysis. Those numbers would favor Florida by 1 ½ points, which was the opening line on this game.

What the oddsmakers failed to take into account was pace, as Oklahoma wouldn’t have out-scored their opponents by as much as they did had they played their games at a normal pace, while Florida would have out-scored their opponents by more than they did had they not played at such a slow pace. I mentioned earlier that Oklahoma averaged 150.9 total plays per game and that Florida’s games averaged 123.0 total plays. My math model projects 140.2 plays for this game, so I want to adjust the point margins for the projected pace of this game. If Oklahoma had averaged 140.2 plays then they would have out-scored their opponents by 25.5 points rather than 27.4 points (27.4/150.9 x 140.2 = 25.5), which would make them +33.2 points when incorporating their +7.7 schedule strength. Florida, meanwhile, would have out-scored their opponents by 35.1 points had they averaged 140.2 plays per game instead of 123 total plays and that would make the Gators +40.9 after adding in their +5.8 schedule strength. So, instead of Florida being better by 1.5 points, the Gators would have been 7.7 points better than Oklahoma if each team averaged the 140 total plays that are expected in this game. That projection of Florida by 7.7 points does not take into account that Florida is expected to have a 0.4 turnover edge in this game rather than being 0.42 turnovers worse per game than Oklahoma. Oklahoma’s actual +2.0 TO margin per game would have been +1.86 had they played at a 140 play pace and Florida’s +1.58 TO margin per game would have been +1.80 had the Gators played at a 140 play pace, so part of the random turnover difference was already incorporated while adjusting the scoring margin for pace. But, the difference between my projected turnover margin of 0.4 turnovers in favor of Florida and the 0.06 pace-adjusted turnover margin in favor of Oklahoma is 0.46 turnovers, which is equivalent to 1.7 points in Florida’s favor. We can add that one to our previous pace-adjusted points margin prediction of Florida by 7.7 points, which gives us an adjusted scoring margin prediction of Florida by 9.4 points. That’s not as much as my math model prediction of Florida by 14 points, but it’s a more realistic number and is the minimum that I would favor the Gators in this game.

In addition to the line value, Florida coach Urban Meyer has a proven track record in big games and his teams at Bowling Green, Utah and Florida are an incredible 27-4 ATS against non-conference opponents, including 4-1 ATS in Bowl games. Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops, meanwhile, is 3-6 ATS in Bowl games, including 0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS in his last 4 BCS Bowls.

I’ll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -6 points or less.

Using a pace adjusted approach on total scoring would project 77 total points scored in this game and my math model projects 74 total points, so I’ll lean over 72 points or lower.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

3* Oregon St