1-9-08

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

Wisconsin-Green Bay @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee
PICK: Wisconsin-Milwaukee

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer 25*- Oklahoma City

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns7:05PM ET NBA 7* Top Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic UNDER 192.5 (-110)8:05PM ET NBA 4* Action Oklahoma City Thunder (8.0 / -105) vs Houston Rockets10:05PM ET NBA 5* Best Sacramento Kings (4.5 / -110) vs Miami Heat

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

Game: Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings Game Time: 1/9/2009 10:05:00 PM

Prediction: Sacramento Kings +4.5

Reason: I'm taking the points with SACRAMENTO. The Heat won big when these teams met on Halloween Night. However, that was at Miami and the Heat were determined for a big effort while playing their home opener. With tonight's game coming at Sacramento. I expect it to be the revenge- minded Kings which are extremely "determined" to bounce back with a huge effort. Note that the Kings are a respectable 61-50-1 ATS (55%) when playing in the 'revenge' role the past few seasons. While they haven't been getting many SU victories, the Kings have been playing well recently. They won their last game here at Arco and just wrapped up a 3-1 ATS road trip by covering at Chicago on Tuesday. Kevin Martin's return has been a big part of the reason for the Kings' recent improved play, as he's averaged 30 points per game in his five games back since injury. Now, the Kings are well-rested and back home, where they've been a significantly better team this entire decade. Note that they're 4-1 ATS the last five times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Off a big "TV game" at Denver and having a date with the Western Conference champion Lakers on deck, I won't be surprised if the Heat overlook the lowly Kings. In fact, that's often the case for Miami, regardless of the scheduling setup. The Heat are 6-10 ATS against teams with a losing record this season and a money-burning 4-11 ATS when listed as favorites. Looking back further and we find them at a dreadful 23-48 ATS the past three seasons when laying points. The Heat lost by double-digits here last season and I expect them to have their hands full again tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob
3 Star Selection
Niagara (-12 ½) over ST PETER’S
09-Jan-09 04:35 PM Pacific Time
Niagara is 23-7-1 ATS in their last 31 lines road games and St. Peter’s is just 8-30-1 ATS as a home underdog in their history (4-11-1 ATS under their current head coach). Excluding their road games against a pretty good Buffalo team and a good Villanova team, Niagara has won 5 of their other 7 road games by 15 points or more and St. Peter’s is the second worst team that the Purple Eagles will visit this season (they beat a slightly worse Monmouth team by 23 points on the road). St. Peter’s hasn’t faced a good team at home yet this season, but they lost by 16 points to Stony Brook and by 17 points to Lehigh, which are the two best teams that the Peacocks have hosted this season (those two teams are about 11 points worse than Niagara). My ratings favor Niagara by 15 points and St. Peter’s applies to a negative 52-107-2 ATS home underdog situation. I’ll take Niagara in a 3-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less and for 2-Stars at -13 ½ or -14 points.
3-Stars at -13 or less, 2-Stars at -13 1/2 or -14.

2 Star Selection
Washington (+5) over CHICAGO
09-Jan-09 05:35 PM Pacific Time
Chicago is struggling without their best player Luol Deng, who has missed 9 games this season, including the last 6, as the Bulls are just 2-7 ATS in the 9 games Deng has missed this season and have an average game rating that is 3.7 points worse in 29 games Deng has missed the last two seasons than their average game rating when he has played. Chicago has been out-scored by an average of 5.1 points per 48 minutes without Deng on the floor and my ratings also have the Bulls at -5.0 without Deng (i.e. 5.0 points worse than an average team). Chicago did manage to beat a bad Kings team by 5 points on Tuesday night (as a 9 point favorite), but the Bulls have a tough time stringing wins together. The inconsistent Bulls are a horrible 7-39 straight up and 12-34 ATS the last two seasons following a win (2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS this season), compared to 41-30 straight up and 39-32 ATS when not coming off a win. Chicago is just 6-12 straight up as a favorite after a win and an upset here would not be a surprise given how the Wizards have improved lately. Washington has changed up their lineup for the better recently and losing starting F DeShawn Stevenson is a huge plus given that Stevenson was shooting a horrible 31.8% from the floor while also playing bad defense (the Wizards allow 5 points per 48 minutes more when he’s on the floor than when he’s not). Washington has been out-scored this season by an average of 6.6 points per 48 minutes, but the Wizards have only been out-scored by 2.6 points per 48 minutes when Stevenson is not on the floor and I rate Washington at 2.6 points worse than an average team with their current lineup. My ratings favor Chicago by only 1 point in this game and I certainly don’t mind going against the Bulls after a victory. I’ll take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more.
2-Stars at +4 or more.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob Opinion

Friday NBA Opinion
DENVER (-4) over Detroit
Denver will be without the overrated Carmelo Anthony (great offense, but bad defense) for awhile but the Nuggets are still 117-63-1 ATS when rested, not laying more than 12 points and facing a team with a win percentage of less than .625. In other words, Denver tends to play their best with rest against mediocre and bad teams. The record of that trend without Anthony is now 12-3 ATS after Wednesday’s spread win, as the oddsmakers tend to over-adjust the line for his absence. Denver also applies to a 64-21 ATS home favorite momentum situation while Detroit applies to a very negative 8-50-1 ATS situation. My issue with this game is the line, which is a bit too high given that Detroit is considerably better without Richard Hamilton. Detroit is 5-1 straight up without Hamilton and their only straight up loss was a spread win. My ratings favor Denver by only 3 points and I’m not going to give up the line value to make the Nuggets a Best Bet, even in a good situation. I’ll lean with Denver at -4 or less and I’d take Denver in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

ppp/gavazzi

4 nuggets, sd
3 pacers, niagra, fairfield, santa clara

[Mr. IWS]

big Al

3* Oklahoma City