1-21-09

[Mr. IWS]

::moneybag::

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer CBB TAILOR-MADE BEATDOWN GOY
OU -12.5 vs Nebraska

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness Wednesday

Larry's 7* CAA Showdown

Few will forget George Mason's Final 4 run a few years back and with Jim Larranaga on the bench, the Patriots will always be a dangerous team, especially in the CAA. However, GMU has "come back to the pack" and this year's Huskies have all five starters back from last year's team. Bill Coen took his team on an extended trip through Canada this August and September and he believes it has made the team much better. The Huskies have won EIGHT of their last 10, losing only at Memphis and this past Saturday, 57-52 at Hofstra. Losing to the Pride in a revenge game (Huskies beat Hofstra on Jan 5 in Boston) is hardly considered a 'bad loss.' Two 6-4 guards form an excellent backcourt in Janning (14.9-4.6-2.8) and Allen (10.0-5.2-3.1). Up front, it's 6-9 center Ojougboh (8.0-5.1) surrounded by a pair of 6-8 forwards, Adako (11.7-4.5) and Spates (6.9-2.5). GMU lost forward Thomas and swingman Campbell from LY's team (both were part of that Final 4 team as well) but the 6-7 Monroe (10.5-9.1) is back healthy TY after missing last season with an injury. The 6-7 Birdsong (7.9-43.2) and 6-6 freshman Pearson (7.1-4.2) join Monroe inside. The backcourt has solid depth with seniors Vaughan (11.1-3.9) and Smith (8.5-3.4) joined by sophomore Long (11.6-4.4-3.5) and freshman Cornelius (6.6). Mathews Arena (6,000 capacity) is a tough place to play, as the Patriots found at last year in a 70-59 loss. The Patriots are not a great rebounding team and they still lack a legit "go-to" threat. Northeastern can play pretty good defense and its frontcourt should be able to contain Monroe and Co. inside. Linemakers realize this as LY the Huskies were a small home dog in their home game vs the Patriots, while this year they've been installed as the small favorite. The adjustment is correct but I still expect the Huskies to win this one with some "room to spare."

CAA Showdown on Northeastern.


Oddsmaker's Error - NCAAB

The Gators lost at Fla St back on Dec 7 and fell out of the top-25. However, they haven't lost since and with 10 straight wins, are back in the top-25 this week at No. 24 with a 16-2 mark. That being said, head coach Billy Donovan will not have to be reminded that last year's team opened 18-3 but lost eight of its final 11 games and got left out of the NCAA tournament for the first time in a decade. South Carolina is thinking NCAA tourney this year as well, after back-to-back 14-win seasons. Darrin Horn, of Western Kentucky fame, is the school's new head coach and at 12-4, he's got the Gamecocks on pace for 20-win season. The Gators are led by the 6-6 Calathes (17.7-5.2-6.4) who is joined in the backcourt by senior Hodge (7.7) plus two freshman, the 5-8 Walker (8.9) and Shipman (4.2). Up front, the 6-8 Tyus (12.7-6.4), the 6-7 Werner (9.4-4.2) and the 6-9 Parsons (8.6-5.1) also get some help from a freshman, the 6-10 Kadji (5.4-2.8). The Gators are on quite a roll, holding opponents to 64.2 PPG while winning by an average margin of 17.5 PPG during their 10-game run. However, this will only be the team's fourth true road game all season. The Gamecocks are 10-1 SU at home (only loss came to Clemson) and while the team's frontcourt is a little undersized, three 6-7 players will not back down from the Gators here in the Colonial Center. Archie averages 11.6-7.3, Holmes 11.6-8.1 and Banilus 7.6.-3.0 (leads team with a FG percentage of 55.8). Downey (19.6-4.3 APG) and Fredrick (16.3) are an excellent guard duo with Raley-Ross (6.7) adding nice depth. Florida is "ripe for the taking" in this one, having just returned to the polls and playing only its fourth road game. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are tough to beat here in Columbia and after losing two close games to the Gators last year (73-71 and 85-82) will be primed to spoil Florida's return to the national rankings. I expect a 10-point win, meaning this price is way off.

Oddsmaker's Error on South Carolina


Larry's Conference 10*

I 'rode' Nebraska to an easy 73-51 home win last Saturday over Kansas St, noting that the 'Huskers were 10-1 at home (now 11-1), losing only right before Christmas (12/23), when Maryland-Balt Co. came to Lincoln and shot 57.1 percent in a two-point win. I was "right on the money," as Nebraska shot 50% vs the Wildcats, including 10-of-18 from three-point range. I also noted in that analysis that Doc Sadler's Nebraska team is an odd one, which basically starts five guards. The 6-5 Dagunduro (10.8-3.8) and the 6-4 Anderson (4.8-4.5) are the team's best rebounders and six players average 23-plus minutes (McCray gets about 18 minutes, averaging 7.1-3.4), The 5-11 Harley (12.4-3.6) is the team's leading scorer, followed by Dagunduro, the 6-3 Henry (9.5-3.4) and the 6-2 Velander (9.6). Winning at home in Lincoln is one thing but winning on the road is another, especially here in Norman at the Lloyd Noble Center. Nebraska won its first road game this year (at TCU) but has lost its three road games since. The Cornhuskers didn't come close at Arizona Sta (lost 64-44), while also losing at 6-10 Oregon St and in their first Big 12 road game at Iowa St. The Sooners are 17-1 and ranked sixth, led by p-o-y candidate, the 6-10 Blake Griffin. Griffin averages 22.0-13.4 and is joined up front by his older brother, the 6-7 Taylor (9.1-6.1). The Sooners have two big guards, 6-5 freshman Warren (15.5) and 6-6 senior Crocker (10.4) plus a solid PG in Johnson (7.7-4.4 APG), who was just named Big 12 Player of the Week for the first time on Monday. The Sooners have opened Big 12 play 3-0, sandwiching an impressive 78-63 home win over Texas with road wins at Kan St and Tex A&M. Oklahoma's lone loss this year came on Dec 30 at Arkansas (lost 96-88), when the homestanding Razorbacks not only shot 51.7 percent from the floor but also were awarded 43 FTs (made 30) to Oklahoma's 22 (made 11). Imagine that? Oklahoma will well-remember last year's embarrassing 63-45 loss at Lincoln, in a game the Sooners were held to just 37.0 percent shooting. I'll note that Nebraska is holding teams to 40.1 percent shooting and 55.8 PPG, which ranks second in the nation. However, the Sooners can play some defense too, limiting opponents to 37.7 percent shooting from the floor this year (ranks 14th) plus the 'Huskers will have a hard time holding Oklahoma from scoring here in Norman (Sooners are averaging 79.6 PPG on the season, including 83.1 PPG here in Norman, where they are 10-0 SU). Oklahoma's won the last four meetings here in Norman over the Huskers and win No. 5 in a row comes with relative ease.

Conf 10* in the Big 12 on Oklahoma.

Larry's 7* Bailout Blowout


LeBron (27.6-7.2-6.6) is 'King' in Cleveland but the Cavs have not won a division title since 1975. They do however, look like "sure things" in the Central Division this year (are currently 31-8) and while the Celtics and Magic may still have something to say about it, the Cavs also seemed poised to win their first-ever Eastern Conference crown this year as well. Of course, Delonte West and Ilgauskas had better get healthy. West (12.3) is having a career-season, shooting 46.7 percent from the floor (40.9 on threes) and Igauskas (13.8-7.1) is as steady a player as there is the league. Varejao (9.2-7.1) is a quality player but after averaging 16.0-8.3 in the first four games without Ilgauskas in the lineup, he's averaged just 6.3-5.5 in the last four and that includes his 10 points and 12 rebounds in Monday's loss to the Lakers. Varejao's at his best for Cleveland, providing a 'spark' off the bench. James was held to 23 points while making only 9-of-25 shots Monday night in LA, as the Cavs were outscored 56-38 in the second half of that 105-88 loss. Cleveland continues its four-game West Coast swing tonight in Portland (Warriors and Jazz, still to come) and while the Cavs, haven't had much trouble beating the Blazers lately (Cleveland's won seven of the last nine meetings), this will be the team's FIFTH game in nine days (four of which have been on the road). As most know, Portland is a strong home team, entering this game 15-4 SU in the Rose Garden, outscoring opponents 101.5-to-92.8 PPG. Guard Roy (22.3-4.8-5.3) and power forward Aldridge (17.5-6.9) are All Stars but the Blazers are still waiting on Oden (8.3-7.0). Oden scored a season-high 24 points and tied a season-best with 15 rebounds on Monday, as the Blazers beat the Bucks, 102-85. However, in his three previous games (all on the road), Oden had totaled just 12 points and seven rebounds, while battling foul trouble in each game. That being said, he teams with Przybilla (5.4-7.8) to give the Blazers a pretty decent center duo. Portland will miss PG Steve Blake (11.6-4.7 APG) who is out with a shoulder injury but it's better him than Roy. Outlaw (11.7-4.0) continues to play well off the bench in the frontcourt plus Fernandez (11.0), the rookie from Spain, has been providing a huge offensive 'spark' to the backcourt all season. LeBron had 37 points and 14 rebounds plus made the winning layup with less than one second remaining in Cleveland's 84-83 victory in Portland on Jan 30 of last year. However, don't expect the Cavs to win this year's visit to the Rose Garden. West and Ilgauskas are HUGE losses and as already mentioned, the Cavs are in a tough stretch of games and that lack of quality depth will hurt against the Blazers here on their home court.

Bailout Blowout on the Por Blazers

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer 25*- Michigan State

[Mr. IWS]

Root today...


Chairman- Florida St
Millionaire- Wisconsin
No Limit- So Carolina

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL

1* LSU
1* Wichita St.

Wednesday
At 8 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Mississippi State , as the Bulldogs fall into a negative system that's 4-22 ATS since 1990. What we want to do is play AGAINST any .730 (or worse) college basketball road underdog priced from +2.5 to +9.5 which is off five SU/ATS wins, if it's matched up against an opponent off a straight-up win. Mississippi State has reeled off five consecutive wins and covers since dropping a 64-61 game at home to San Diego, and now sits atop the SEC West Division (with a 3-0 conference record), with LSU in second place (the Tigers are 2-1 in SEC play). LSU had an impressive 83-51 win its last time out, on the road at Ole Miss, and I think that the Tigers match up great vs. a small Mississippi State squad. Rick Stansbury is using a four-guard line-up, and the Bulldogs have been outrebounded in seven of their last nine games. That's not a good omen heading into tonight's game in Baton Rouge , as LSU is the SEC's top rebounding club, with a +7.9 rpg advantage. LSU is a perfect 13-0 at home this season, and the Tigers are 20-4 ATS vs. SEC foes if LSU is off a 18-point (or greater) conference win, including 15-0 ATS if the line ranges from 2 to 7 points. Take LSU.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Wichita State Shockers plus the points over Illinois State , as WSU falls into a momentum system of mine which is 45-15 ATS since 1990. In its last game, Wichita upset Creighton as a 4.5-point underdog. That was the Shockers' first win in Missouri Valley Conference play, and I look for WSU to use the momentum established by that victory to get win #2 at home tonight vs. Illinois State. For technical support, our 45-15 ATS system plays on certain conference home teams, not getting 8 or more points, which are off an outright win as a home dog, if they're matched up against a foe off a back-to-back straight-up wins. Also, Wichita has won 10 of the last 13 meetings, straight-up, vs. the Redbirds, including six of seven at home. Illinois State has bolted out to a 16-2 record this season, largely on the heels of a favorable home schedule. Indeed, the Redbirds have dropped their last two conference road games -- 56-52 at Bradley, and 75-70 at Indiana State -- while being favored to win each game. Look for the Shockers to pull the upset tonight. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
5 mich st, st joe
4 TCU, mo, ala
3 buffalo, nova, SD st

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob
Opinion
Toronto (+5 ½) over DETROIT
21-Jan-09 04:35 PM Pacific Time
The Pistons are an overrated team that has been out-scored by an average of 1.0 points per game in 36 games with Allen Iverson in the backcourt instead of Chauncey Billups (what a stupid trade that was!) and the Pistons have faced a schedule that is 0.1 points easier than average in those games – which makes them 1.1 points worse than an average team on average. Toronto has a much worse record (16-27) than Detroit’s 23-17 mark, but the Raptors have faced a schedule that is 1.5 points tougher than average and have been out-scored by 2.5 points, which makes them 1.0 points worse than average. These teams are basically even and my ratings favor Detroit by just 2.7 points at home against the Raptors, so there is line value on the side of the dog in this game. Detroit also applies to a negative 24-62-1 ATS situation and they Pistons are 6-13 ATS at home this season. Unfortunately, Detroit coach Michael Curry has finally wised up and decided to put defensive force and team player Amir Johnson in the starting lineup starting tonight while having overrated scorer Richard Hamilton come off the bench. I’ve discussed before how Hamilton is a defensive liability and that Johnson is one the more effective players on the roster because of his defense and I even bet on Detroit when they hosted Orlando on December 29th because Hamilton was out and Johnson was starting. Hamilton will still get about 30 minutes a game, but Johnson will get more minutes than he’s been getting and I project Detroit to improve about a point if Johnson starts and Hamilton’s minutes are trimmed. That still gives fair line of 3 ½ to 4 points in this game and I’ll lean with Toronto plus the points. I’d take Toronto in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.
Opinion - 2-Star Best Bet at +6 or more.

COLLEGE
Opinion
Southern Illinois (-4 1/2) over INDIANA STATE
21-Jan-09 04:00 PM Pacific Time
opinion.
Opinion - 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.

3 Star Selection
WAKE FOREST (-13) over Virginia Tech
21-Jan-09 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Wake Forest is coming off an impressive road win over previously unbeaten Clemson and my ratings favor Wake Forest by 16 points. Wake is 11-4-1 ATS at home under coach Dino Gaudio and the Demon Deacons apply to a solid 125-58-3 ATS home momentum situation. I’ll take Wake Forest in a 3-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less and for 2-Stars from -13 ½ to -15 points.
3-Stars at -13 or less, 2-Stars from -13 1/2 to -15.

3 Star Selection
JAMES MADISON (-9 ½) over Towson
21-Jan-09 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Those that have been following me over the last 6 weeks or so are aware that James Madison is an underrated team since Juwann James returned to the Dukes’ lineup on December 14th after missing 7 games. James has averaged 14.9 points and 5.7 rebounds in just 26.3 minutes per game and he’s made 59% of this shots – so it’s easy to see why he’s made such a difference. James Madison was on a 7-1-1 ATS run that was derailed a bit on Saturday by a 57-71 loss as a 9 ½ point dog at George Mason – a game that I passed on because guard Devon Moore was not scheduled to play after suffering a concussion against NC Wilmington. Moore is the Dukes’ second best player, dishing out 3.8 assists while making 50% of his shots, which is excellent for a guard. Moore is scheduled to return tonight after his one game absence and my ratings favor JMU by 15 points. James Madison actually lost at Towson on January 3rd by 1 point as a 1 point dog, but that was the worst game the Dukes have played in 11 games since James returned to the lineup and for James Madison to only lose by 1 point in that game is impressive considering they made just 1 of 15 3-point shots (they’re 36.2% for the season) and only 8 of 15 free-throws (74.6% for the season). Three point shooting is basketball’s most variable statistic (like fumbles in football) and a bad shooting night like the Dukes had in their first game against Towson was nothing more than just random negative variance. If each team shot their expected percentages from 3-point range and from the free-throw line in that game (adjusted for JMU being the road team) then the Dukes would have won by 7 or 8 points in that game, which would equate to 15 or 16 points if it were a home game. In other words, James Madison’s 1 point loss in the first meeting was not a negative at all because the Dukes played about as poorly as they can play and still pushed against the point spread. More telling is the fact that JMU made 62% of their 2 point shots in that game and they should dominate in the paint again tonight while being likely to make a more representative percentage of their 3-point shots. Towson is only 2-14-1 ATS in their last 17 road games when not an underdog of at least 14 points and they aren’t likely to stay within double-digits tonight. I’ll take James Madison in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less and for 2-Stars from -10 ½ to -12 points.
3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars from -10 1/2 to -12.

Opinion
Florida State (+6 ½) over MIAMI FLORIDA
21-Jan-09 04:30 PM Pacific Time
Miami-Florida is coming off a humbling 65-82 loss at North Carolina and that loss sets up the Hurricanes in a negative 41-105-7 ATS situation tonight. Miami is only 6-14 ATS as a home favorite against teams with winning records (0-3 ATS this season) under coach Frank Haith and I certainly don’t mind backing an underrated Florida State squad that is a few points better 2-guard Derwin Kitchen joined the rotation in mid-December after missing the first 9 games of the season. My ratings using all games for the season favors Miami by 7 points, which is what the line is, but I favor the Hurricanes by just 5 ½ points using the Seminoles’ games with Kitchen (excluding his first game back when he played just 6 minutes). I’ll take Florida State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
Opinion - 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Another 15-Dime Winner ...
15 Dime South Carolina - Bring on Florida. The Gamecocks won't be threatened by the 24th-ranked Gators, even though they face Florida after dropping two in a row on the road. USC is still 12-4 overall, and with a 1-2 mark in SEC play, it'll view this as a must-win situation.



I told you Carolina would cover against Tennessee, and though the 'Cocks lost, I saw some positives late in the game. This team exerted plenty of energy and showed what it is capable of doing against a quality team in a very tough venue.



And I've come to like first-year coach Darrin Horn, who believes in learning from mistakes, and most certainly will have his team looking to correct ones his players committed on Saturday. Such as, finding a way to start the game much better and more intense at both ends of the court. They'll also step up their game defensively.



The best thing about this team is its experience. And with two great guards in Zam Fredrick and Devan Downey, I think we're going to see a tremendous effort with the frontcourt, which will create an inside-outside game that could frustrate Billy D's bunch. Mike Holmes and Dominique Archie have both come on and played extremely well, so their intensity will help us as well.



Fact is, Horn's system has been adopted perfectly, and these players are executing what he's wanted them to do with a lot of passion.



South Carolina is on 4-1 ATS run in SEC play and a perfect 4-0 versus the books after a straight-up loss. On the other hand, Florida is 4-10 in its last 14 SEC contests and 1-6 against the books when laying anywhere up to 6-1/2 points.



Take the home pup here.



5 Dime Clemson - The Tigers challenged the Heels three times last season - including in the ACC final. This year they're much, much better. Can they win in Chapel Hill? That remains to be seen, but they can cover a double-digit spread in conference play. As I mentioned about South Carolina, experience will also be key in this one. Clemson has it, and if it is as mentally tough as I believe it is, I think we're going to see a greater desire to finish off the Tar Heels this season, rather than delve into overtime, the same way these two did in last year's regular season clashes. Yep, both of em.



Despite Saturday?s loss to Wake Forest - Clemson's first of the season - the Tigers are on ATS runs of 5-1 on the road, 6-0 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 5-1 in ACC play, 4-1 on Wednesdays and 8-2 after suffering a double-digit home loss.



North Carolina, on the other hand, is on a 3-7 ATS slump overall, 1-5 ATS at home and has failed to cover in six of its last seven ACC games.

[Mr. IWS]

spritzer
hornets
knicks

mich st
buffalo
drake
va tech
BYU