1-24-09

[Mr. IWS]

::moneybag::

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness Saturday

Larry Ness' LEGEND Play

I lost a big play on Michigan last Saturday, when the Wolverines collapsed at home against Ohio St (led 44-40 and lost 65-58). However, if there is one thing I've learned in 25 years in this business is to NOT let one play affect another. I believe Michigan's in a terrific spot tonight, so "here we go again!" Bill Carmody is a well respected head coach and is used to coaching at a school with high academic standards like Northwestern (see Princeton). That being said, last year's 8-22 mark (1-17 in the Big 10) could not have been a pleasant experience. In contrast, this year's 7-1 start (lone loss being 57-53 at Butler) had to put a smile on his face. The Wildcats have some size, with a 7-0 center in Rowley (4,2) plus two 6-8 forwards, Coble (15.6-5.1) and Shurna (7.6-3.3). The starting backcourt is sound with Moore (13.9-3.3-2.8) and Thompson (10.3-2.6-3.7) but there is little depth. By late December Northwestern began slumping and from 12/31-1/15 lost four straight which gave them five losses in six games after that 7-1 start. Then last Sunday, they upset then-No. 18 Minnesota 74-65, ending the Wildcats' 18-game losing slide against ranked opponents (last win over ranked opponent came in Feb of 2006). Minnesota led that game by three points at the half but missed 12 of its first 13 shots in the second half and watched as Northwestern scored 16 straight points. A 27 to 11 edge in FT attempts for Northwestern in the game didn't hurt either. That win was only a mild surprise but this past Wednesday, the Wildcats followed their win over Minnesota by upsetting No. 7 Michigan State 70-65 in East Lansing, ending the Spartans' 28-game home winning streak. What's going on here? Northwestern had not only had no success against ranked opponents as of late (see above) but entering the Minnesota game, had dropped 26 of its previous 27 Big 10 contests as well. Now, all of a sudden, it's two straight wins over ranked conference foes! The 'madness' stops here. Michigan has been ranked at times this year but comes into this game on a three-game losing streak. The Wolverines lost at Illinois prior to losing to Ohio State last Saturday and earlier this week, played a terrible game at Penn State, losing 73-58 (made just 5-of-30 three pointers). However, I fully expect John Beilein to have things straightened out here. Michigan is still 13-6 on the season, owning wins over two teams ranked fourth in the nation at the time, beating UCLA in Madison Square Garden in late November and Duke (here at Crisler Arena) on December 6. Last year's 10-22 season (5-13 in the Big 10) is a distant memory and I expect the Wolves' will have a few more "big wins" in them this year. A win over Northwestern is big only in terms of "stopping the bleeding," which is a must. Swingman Harris (18.1-7.4-4.6) and the 6-8 Sims (15.8-8.1) will be the two most talented players on the floor and with Arizona transfer Lucas-Perry now eligible (he's averaged 9.9 PPG in his 10 games), the Michigan backcourt is solid. Joining Perry are freshman Novak (6.7) and Douglass (5.1) plus sophomore Grady (5.5). Northwestern's offense is one of dribble penetration and Beilein's 1-3-1 zone should handle that just fine, playing with bigger and quicker athletes. Michigan really needs a confidence builder, while Northwestern is 'flying' way too high after back-to-back wins over ranked opponents. Beilein has been stuck on 499 career wins for three games now and his team gets him win No. 500 in a rout!

LEGEND play on Michigan


Larry's Daytime Dominator

Doc Sadler's 'Huskers are an odd team, which basically starts five guards. The 6-5 Dagunduro (10.6-3.6) and the 6-4 Anderson (5.8-4.6) are the team's best rebounders and six players average 23-plus minutes (McCray gets about 18 minutes, averaging 6.8-3.4), The 5-11 Harley (12.3-3.6-2.4) is the team's leading scorer, followed by Dagunduro, the 6-3 Henry (9.5-3.4-2.3) and the 6-2 Velander (9.5). Nebraska is 11-1 at home this year, with its lone loss coming right before Christmas (12/23), when Maryland-Balt Co. came to Lincoln and shot 57.1 percent in a two-point win. That was just "one of those games." Nebraska is coming off a Wednesday loss at Norman, where the 'Huskers gave the No. 6 Sooners all they wanted. Nebraska led 38-32 at the half but finally succumbed, as Blake Griffin was too much. The 6-10 sophomore had 27 points and 18 rebounds for his 15th double-double on the year. Nebraska's defense frustrated Oklahoma for a good part of the game but Griffin was just relentless. The good news here is that Oklahoma State has no Blake Griffin. In fact, the Cowboys look a lot like the 'Huskers. OSU lost its best big man from LY, the 6-9 Dove (9.5-5.7) and this year's lone big man of any consequence, the 6-11 Thomas (averaging 8.3-3.9 in about 20 minutes per game), decided to leave the team after seven games and transfer. Travis Ford (former Kentucky player and a successful head coach at U Mass) is in his first year at Stillwater and this year's team is much like the last few OSU ones. The Cowboys are a tough 'out' at home but get them away from Stillwater and they are very vulnerable. When OSU beat Texas A&M last Feb 16, the victory ended a 19-game road losing streak for the Cowboys and Ford hasn't been able to do much to change things this year. The Cowboys lost 83-71 to Gonzaga and 94-79 to Michigan State in a November tourney in Orlando, before beating Siena 77-68. The team's only true road games this year have been a win at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi plus losses at Washington (not close) and Baylor. The 6-6 Anderson (17.9-5.5) and two 6-5 players, Muonelo (15.9-9.8) and Harris (14.7-4.9) are a very talented trio (Muonelo is quite a rebounder!). PG Eaton (13.7-3.5-5.8) and freshman guard Page (10.2) round out the team's main players. Ford 'loved' to shoot the 'three' as a player at Kentucky and this team is in his mold, as the Cowboys average 86.0 PPG (4th) and shoot 42.0 percent from beyond the arc (2nd). However, Sadler's team can play defense (allows 56.8 PPG / 31.3 percent on threes!) and OSU's effectiveness drops considerably away from Stillwater. Nebraska can and will dictate a slower and more methodical pace than OSU would like. Just see its game vs Missouri on Jan 10, where the 'Huskers beat the Tigers 56-51, while not allowing a single fast-break point (Tigers are averaging 84.8 PPG). OSU won 77-63 last year in Stillwater but here in the friendly confines of the Devaney Sports Center ('Huskers are 25-4 SU at home since the beginning of last year), it will be a much different 'story.'

Daytime Dominator on Nebraska


Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider

Lorenzo Romar has had some memorable years in Seattle with three straight NCAA teams (two Sweet 16s) but two years ago his 19-13 team went uninvited to the postseason and last year's 16-16 team lost at home 72-71 to Valparaiso in the new CBI tourney to end the year 16-17. However, Washington has an NCAA bid in their sights this year, opening 14-4 (5-1 in the Pac 10). The guard combo is one of old and new, with senior Dentmon (14.2-2.9-2.3) being joined by 5-8 freshman Thomas (15.9-3.1-3.1), who is reminding many of Nate Robinson. Overton (4.7) and Turner (3.9) are the top reserves. The 6-7 Brockman (15.1-10.8) is now a senior (seems like he's been there forever!) and is having a superb season, despite going 0-for-8 from the floor on Thursday vs USC (four points). The 6-6 Pondexter (10.1-5.8) and 6-8 freshman Gant (3.4-3.7) join him in the starting lineup with 6-9 sophomore Bryan-Amaning (8.9-5.4) providing excellent play off the bench. While Washington didn't cover vs USC (missed by a point!), the fact that the Huskies won with Brockman having such an awful game, should give Romar great comfort. Guards Thomas and Dentmon combined for 39 points vs the Trojans and here Washington goes for a sweep of the LA schools against the Bruins. No. 13 UCLA is 15-3 (also 5-1 in the Pac 10) and comes off a hardly inspiring 61-59 win in Pullman over Washington State. However, let's not underestimate the Bruins or head coach Ben Howland. Collison (14.6-5.4 APG) is joined by freshman Holiday (9.5-3.7-2.9) in the starting backcourt with swingman Shipp (11.6) and two 6-9 players, Aboya (9.0-5.3) and Dragovic (7.9-3.4) rounding out the starting lineup. Dragovic is off a career-high 20 points vs WSU and Aboya has made excellent strides this year, after averaging 2.9-2.2 LY. The same can be said about the 6-5 Roll (7.8), who is up from 2.8 PPG last season. The 6-8 Keefe (3.9-4.3) and 6-5 freshman Lee (4.5) are also solid contributors, although Lee has been bothered by an injury, playing in just two of the team's last seven games. UCLA's victory at Pullman makes it 11 wins in its last 12 (since a 68-64 loss at Texas), with that only loss coming at home to ASU, 61-58 in OT. UCLA is known for its defense (58.6 PPG allowed) but Ben Howland's style of play (rough and tumble) is not always as effective on the road as it is in Pauley Pavilion, where the refs are more tolerant. There's no denying UCLA's three consecutive appearances in the Final Four under Howland but this Washington team he'll face today is the school's "most complete" team since Brandon Roy left for the NBA in 2006. The Huskies have won 12 of 13 games overall and are 11-1 SU at home (lone loss was 88-85 in OT to Cal) and Washington has beaten UCLA four consecutive times here in Seattle, including last year's upset of the then-No. 5 Bruins. The Bruins look vulnerable, having lost at home in OT to Arizona State last weekend and at Washington State on Thursday, the Cougars missed a potentially winning shot at the end of that two-point UCLA win. Led by Brockman, Washington is tops in the nation in rebound margin (plus-11) and LY's 16-17 team beat UCLA 71-61 at this site. This year's version, which is "new and improved," should do the same.


Las Vegas Insider on Washington



Larry's Oddsmaker Error

Steve Alford won 24 games in his first year at New Mexico but his team was still regulated to the NIT and the Lobos fell in the first round, at home no less. Gone from LY's team is the 6-6 Giddens, who led in both scoring (16.3) and rebounding (8.8). He did get the 6-5 Danridge back this year (missed all of last season with a broken leg) and the 6-5 senior is leading the team in scoring (13.3-4.2). New Mexico doesn't lack talent, although the Lobos don't have too much size. The best inside player is the 6-9 Faris (11.5-5.9), while the 6-7 Toppert (10.6-3.1) is a quality sixth-man. Swingman Martinez (10.2-3.1) is another solid contributor but Alford's backcourt is young. Last year's star freshman was PG Gary (7.6-4.1 APG) and he returns to join two freshman in TY's backcourt, 6-5 big guard McDonald (8.8-3.9) and PG Garth (4.7-3.7 APG). However, the deal with New Mexico is really the same, the Lobos are a tough home team in "the Pit," but are a very vulnerable one away from Albuquerque. TCU knew it was time for change in Fort Worth, as in six years, head coach Neil Daugherty had produced just ONE winning season and a 75-108 overall mark. In came Jim Christian from Kent State, which over the last 10 seasons, is one of just SEVEN Division I programs with at least 20 wins in each season. Christian was in charge for the last six, going 138-58 overall. His challenge in Fort Worth was that LY's team was just 14-16 and lost 48.7 PPG and 25.0 RPG from nine players no longer on this year's team. So what? After a 1-3 start, Christian has led the Horned Frogs to 12 wins in their last 15 games and with a 4-1 conference mark, TCU sits atop the MWC standings. Seven players have participated in all 19 games and four of them are completely new to the program. Two JUCO transfers have been very good up front, the 6-9 Buljan (12.1-7.6) and the 6-6 Ruzgas (11.3-3.4). Two freshman guards have been a major help in the backcourt, Moss (9.4-2.3-2.5) and the 6-5 Butler (3.8-3.6). Returning from LY's team are the 6-8 Langford (14.0-5.3) plus guards Ebie (6.1-4.1 APG) and Mitchem (6.1). While Alford has more name recognition, insiders of CBB would readily acknowledge that Christian is the far better coach. Since the first of the year, TCU has won at Texas Tech and upset UNLV here in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs lost their first home game of the season to Nebraska but have since won NINE straight in Daniel-Meyer Coliseum. TCU knows how to play defense, allowing 61.8 PPG and is holding opponents to just 30.3 percent from behind the line. New Mexico's "three-point gunners" won't back off and that should be the Lobos' undoing. The host has won and covered the last four in this series and nothing should change tonight! Why are the Lobos favored in this one?

Oddsmaker's Error on TCU

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

25 Dimes Iowa St.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer
4.5 *st Joes

[Mr. IWS]

drbob
I have 4 Saturday Daytime College Basketball Best Bets, 2 College 3-Star Best Bets and 2 College 2-Star Best Bets




Saturday Daytime Opinions/Possible Best Bets
Maryland (+15 ½) over DUKE
Maryland applies to a rare 27-1-2 ATS big underdog situation that actually also applied to the Terrapins last season in their 82-20 upset as a 19 point dog at North Carolina on January 19th, 2008. I doubt the Terps will come up with another huge upset but the situation indicates that they can stay within the big number. Unfortunately, the number isn’t quite big enough as my ratings favor Duke by 17 points in this game. I’ll lean with the Terrapins plus the points in this game and I’d take Maryland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee (+13) over BUTLER
Wisconsin Milwaukee has picked up their level of play recently (7-2 straight up and 6-2 ATS), but the Panthers are coming off an upset loss at Valparaiso on Thursday night – perhaps caught looking ahead to this game. That loss actually sets up the Panthers in a very strong 49-6-1 ATS bounce-back situation, but the line is not quite high enough to make this game a Best Bet, as my ratings favor Butler by 14 ½ points. Butler does have a tendency to letdown as a big favorite, as the Bulldogs are just 5-11 ATS as a favorite or more than 10 points in two seasons under coach Brad Stevens (3-10 ATS in conference play) while being 22-8-3 ATS from -10 to dog. Butler is 12-4-2 ATS this season, but 0-3 ATS laying more than 10 points. I still don’t want to give up 1 ½ points of line value, so I’ll lean with the Panthers at +13 points and I’d take Wisconsin-Milwaukee in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Maryland
Millionaire- Tennessee
Money Maker- LSU
Billionaire- Notre Dame
Perfect Play- St Johns

[Mr. IWS]

ppp

4 ark, mich
3 tulsa, tcu, mo, g mason
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

spreitzer

magic
nets

tcu
wyo
boise
mem (ncaa)
s ill
ill
hou (ncaa)
uc davis

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob
Dr Bob:

4 Daytime Best Bets.

Opinions on Rot #513 Maryland +15 1/2 (2-Stars at +17) and Rot.#533 Wisconsin-Milwaukee +13 (2-Stars at +14).

Saturday night release at 3 pm Pacific on the Best Bets release page at Dr. Bob Basketball.


3 Star Selection
***South Florida (+7) over VILLANOVA
09:00 AM Pacific - Rotation 516
South Florida is an underrated team that has covered in 6 of their last 7 games, including 4 straight, and the Bulls apply to a very good 93-36-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation today. Villanova, meanwhile, is coming off a competitive loss at Connecticut and it may be tough for the Wildcats to get up for this game after getting fired up for the Huskies and with Pitt coming up next in a few days. Villanova, in fact, applies to a negative 51-150-4 ATS letdown situation that is based on their close loss to the Huskies and the Wildcats are only 10-19-1 ATS as a conference favorite following a loss under Jay Wright. The Cats are also 0-10 ATS the last two seasons after scoring 80 points or more and teams coming off a high scoring loss are generally bad bets in their next game. South Florida has been a momentum team under Stan Heath and the Bulls are now 13-4 ATS in games following victory in Heath’s two seasons, including a perfect 7-0 ATS at home after a win. South Florida became a better team when poor-shooting Mike Mercer (35% shooting) was lost for the season before Christmas and my ratings favor Villanova by only 3 ½ points in this game after adjusting for the season ending injury to reserve forward Ajayi. I’ll take South Florida in a 3-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 2-Stars at +4 ½ or +4 points.

2 Star Selection
**Loyola Chicago (+2) over DETROIT
11:00 AM Pacific - Rotation 525
Loyola Chicago is coming off a poor performance in a 47-68 loss at Wright State, but the Ramblers have shown a strong tendency to bounce back from conference losses in 5 seasons under coach Jim Whitesell and they’re 7-1 straight up after a loss this season (4-7 after a win). Loyola is 17-7-2 ATS in regular season conference games after a conference loss under Whitesell, including 8-0 ATS recently (3-0 this season). The Ramblers are also a bit underrated, as they’ve played better in 11 games with Leon Young available, as Young leads the team in shooting percentage at 51% while also leading the team in rebounds per game and ranking 3rd in scoring. Detroit, meanwhile, is worse without top scorer and rebounder Xavier Keeling, who was injured after 7 games. The Titans are just 3-6 ATS without Keeling and their only victory in 9 games without Keeling was against a bad Central Michigan team that is about 7 points worse than Loyola-Chicago. Meanwhile, Loyola’s only losses with Young in the lineup have all come against teams that are much better than Detroit (Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Cleveland State, Butler, and Wright State). The Ramblers are 5-0 straight up against teams with a rating within 5 points of Detroit’s rating. My ratings favor the Ramblers by 3 points in this game and I’ll take Loyola-Chicago in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.

2 Star Selection
**DePaul (+16 ½) over MARQUETTE
11:00 AM Pacific - Rotation 527
DePaul has lost 6 consecutive games and the Blue Demons are just 4-11 ATS this season and Marquette has been playing their best basketball of the season of late with a 22 point win over West Virginia and a 9 point win at Providence in their last 2 games. It will be tough for the Golden Eagles to get fired up for the slumping Blue Demons with an important game at Notre Dame coming up on Monday and Georgetown coming up after that. Marquette applies to a very negative 15-71-2 ATS big home favorite letdown situation and I’ll back DePaul based on that contrary angle. My ratings favor Marquette by 17 points, but I’m willing to give up a bit of line value to play such a good situation. I’ll take DePaul in a 2-Star Best Bet a +16 points or more and for 3-Stars at +17 points or more.

3 Star Selection
***ILLINOIS (-6) over Wisconsin
01:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 554
Wisconsin isn’t as good as the experts projected them to be and the Badgers enter this game on a 3 game losing streak. I don’t see that streak ending against an underrated Illinois squad that is 11-2 ATS this season when not favored by 20 points or more and have played their best against other good teams. Illinois bounced back from a spread covering loss at Michigan State with an 18 point rout of Ohio State on Tuesday night and that win sets up the Illini in a very good 56-15-3 ATS subset of a 207-101-9 ATS home favorite momentum situation. My ratings favor Illinois by 7 points after adjusting for the likelihood that their opponents won’t continue to shoot just 59% from the free-throw line (their opponents combine to average 68%, so the 59% against Illinois is just random good luck for the Illini) and I’ll take Illinois in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 1/2 or -7.

Saturday Daytime Opinions/Possible Best Bets
Maryland (+15 ½) over DUKE
Maryland applies to a rare 27-1-2 ATS big underdog situation that actually also applied to the Terrapins last season in their 82-20 upset as a 19 point dog at North Carolina on January 19th, 2008. I doubt the Terps will come up with another huge upset but the situation indicates that they can stay within the big number. Unfortunately, the number isn’t quite big enough as my ratings favor Duke by 17 points in this game. I’ll lean with the Terrapins plus the points in this game and I’d take Maryland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee (+13) over BUTLER
Wisconsin Milwaukee has picked up their level of play recently (7-2 straight up and 6-2 ATS), but the Panthers are coming off an upset loss at Valparaiso on Thursday night – perhaps caught looking ahead to this game. That loss actually sets up the Panthers in a very strong 49-6-1 ATS bounce-back situation, but the line is not quite high enough to make this game a Best Bet, as my ratings favor Butler by 14 ½ points. Butler does have a tendency to letdown as a big favorite, as the Bulldogs are just 5-11 ATS as a favorite or more than 10 points in two seasons under coach Brad Stevens (3-10 ATS in conference play) while being 22-8-3 ATS from -10 to dog. Butler is 12-4-2 ATS this season, but 0-3 ATS laying more than 10 points. I still don’t want to give up 1 ½ points of line value, so I’ll lean with the Panthers at +13 points and I’d take Wisconsin-Milwaukee in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.