1-26-09

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's 100% (18-0) NBA DIVISION GAME OF THE YEARAt 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks plus the points over Miami, as the Heat fall into a negative 22-58 ATS system of mine which plays AGAINST certain home favorites (or pk) off upset wins, if they're matched up against a foe off a straight-up loss. And in division games, our 58-22 system improves to 14-2, 88% ATS. In its last game, Miami upset the Orlando Magic by seven points, 103-97, while Atlanta dropped a 104-99 game at home to Phoenix last evening. But before defeating the Magic, Miami had lost all six of its January games vs. .500 or better opponents. This season, the Hawks have had a split-personality. Atlanta has covered 14 of 18 (78%) as an underdog (including 10-1 ATS vs. .618 (or worse) foes), but is 9-15-1 ATS as a favorite. Miami has a similar profile this year, as the Heat are also terrible as a favorite (6-12 ATS) and profitable as an underdog (13-10-1 ATS). Finally, Miami has covered 0 of 18 since March 18, 2007 off a SU/ATS win, if not getting 5+ points, including 0-8 this season. NBA Southeast Division Game of the Year on Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Under

The boxscore will show that these teams played an extremely high-scoring (120-112) game against each other six weeks ago at Portland. However, those who watched that game will remember that it went to double-overtime with 38 of the points coming in the two extra periods. I expect a much lower-scoring affair this evening.

The Blazers saw their last game stay below the number, their seventh ‘under’ in their last 12 games. The Clippers, who saw last night’s game stay below the total by nearly 20 points, have scored 85 points or less five of the last 10 times that they played the second of back to back games. They average only 91.3 points per game at home and figure to have some trouble scoring again here. The last time that these teams met here at LA they combined for only 155 points and the previous meeting here before that finished with only 162. Take a look at the Under.

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al 5*

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus the points over Marquette. The Golden Eagles have won nine straight games, while Notre Dame has dropped its last three, including Saturday's defeat at the hands of UConn which snapped Notre Dame's 45-game home win streak (then, the longest active streak in the country). But Marquette has played the MUCH EASIER schedule, and that's played a large part in the teams' records. Consider that, of its 19 games, Marquette has only been an underdog once before, and it lost that game, 80-68, at Tennessee. Overall, Marquette has played just four true road games this season, but its two road games in Big East conference play, to date, have been against Rutgers and Providence, and neither will make the NCAA Tournament this season. In contrast, Notre Dame has had a tough slate in both conference and non-conference play. Earlier this season, the Irish played back-to-back games against then-No. 1-ranked North Carolina, and then-No. 6-ranked Texas, and Notre Dame fared well, with an 81-80 victory over the Longhorns, and a 102-87 loss to UNC. In Big East action, the Fighting Irish are 3-4 but its last three games (all losses) were at then-No. 23-ranked Louisville, at then-No. 8-ranked Syracuse, and at home vs. then-No. 3-ranked Connecticut. In each of those games, Notre Dame was an underdog, so it's not completely surprising it came away with three losses. But the Irish are an incredible 41-14 ATS since 1990 when not laying more than 4 points against .930 (or worse) foes, if Notre Dame is off back to back losses. And since 2000, Notre Dame is 9-0-1 ATS off three straight losses, and has covered the spread by an average of 12 points per game! The Irish are led by the 2008 Big East Player of the Year, Luke Harangody who, at 6'8", will be able to exploit the lack of size on Marquette's front line. In his four career games vs. the Golden Eagles, Harangody has averaged 20.5 ppg, and 10.8 rebounds. In Saturday's game against UConn, Harangody recorded his 8th straight "double-double" with 24 points, and 15 rebounds, so he's in fine form. Finally, Notre Dame falls into a super 71-26 ATS system of mine which plays on certain .350 (or better) teams off back-to-back losses, which are matched up against .850 (or better) foes off back-to-back wins. 5* College Basketball Game of the Month on Notre Dame. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer 25* Oklahoma in college hoops

[Mr. IWS]

ew Jersey Nets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (NBA) - Jan 26, 2009 8:05 PM EST
Play: Point Spread: -2.5/-102 Oklahoma City Thunder Play Title: Big Al's FREE Monday Basketball Winner.
At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over New Jersey. The Thunder fired coach P.J. Carlesimo 13 games into the season, and replaced him with current coach Scott Brooks. The results have been encouraging, as Oklahoma City is an awesome 23-8 ATS under Brooks! Tonight, the Thunder take on the New Jersey Nets. In its last game, the Thunder lost on the road to the Clippers, but Kevin Durant had his best game, with 46 points and 15 rebounds. And, two games back, the Thunder had its best offensive outburst of the season, and scored 122 points in its 1-point win at Golden State. Oklahoma City was led in that game by Russell Westbrook's 30 points, and Kevin Durant and Jeff Green chipped in 27 and 26 points respectively. Look for the Thunder to move to 24-8 ATS under coach Brooks with a blowout win over the Nets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al?


cbb
5* Notre Dame (gom)
3* Oklahoma State

nba
3* Atlanta

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang:

5-Dimes Oklahoma City Thunder

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

One Best Bet for Monday.

Rotation #520 Oklahoma State (+2 1/2) 2-Stars at +2 or more.

After a good week last week, I'm close to my high point of the season after suffering a bad stretch prior to last week. I am now 182-153-11 on a Star Basis (3-1 on 4-Stars, 38-23-3 on 3-Stars and 28-40-1 on 2-Stars) for a profit of +13.7 Stars at -1.10 odds. The 2-Stars being well below 50% is strange considering my 2-Stars have been a profitable 54% over the years and I expect the 2-Stars to be profitable going forward. Thankfully, the 3-Stars and 4-Stars have been much better than expected and overall I'm close to my normal pace on a Star Basis. I am a very profitable 55% over my career on my Basketball Best Bets for an average of close to 50 Stars of profit per season and that's still my goal for this season.

My opinions have been only 38-53-1 this season and I once again want to stress that I do not bet the opinions. If they were good enough to bet I would make them Best Bets. That being said, the opinions have actually been a profitable 53% over the years in basketball and were very good last year at 58%. I can't recall having a season in which the opinions were below 50%, so it's a bit random that they haven't done well so far. I continue to put the opinions in the emails, even though I don't bet them, because every time I stop putting the opinions in the emails I get complaints from clients that want them. If you are playing the opinions, you are doing so at your own risk, although I do expect them to win at the normal rate of 53% going forward (but even that slight profit isn't worth the additional risk).


2 Star Selection
**OKLAHOMA STATE (+2 ½) over Oklahoma
06:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 520
Both of these teams have a history of playing better at home than they do on the road and I don’t mind taking the host Cowboys tonight given that they apply to a very good 125-42-4 ATS situation. Oklahoma State has performed better at home (3-2 ATS) than they have on the road (1-2 ATS) and that has been the case over the years as the Cowboys are 105-88-4 ATS in Stillwater since 1990 and only 83-96-5 ATS on the road. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is 19-12-1 ATS at home in 3 seasons under Jeff Capel, but just 7-15-2 ATS on the road. My ratings favor Oklahoma by 2.8 points using a standard home court advantage, but the opening line of Sooners by 2 points is more fair given the additional home court value in this game. The line is more than fair and the situation is good, and I’ll take Oklahoma State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more.

Monday College Opinion
Marquette (+3) over NOTRE DAME
Notre Dame has been exposed as nothing more than a borderline NCAA tournament team, as the Irish have gone just 3-4 in Big East play (2-5 ATS) with consecutive convincing losses to Louisville, Syracuse, and Connecticut. Marquette, meanwhile, started the season playing below expectations, but the Eagles have picked up their level of play and are riding a 9 game win streak heading into tonight’s game. Notre Dame being favored by 3 points can be justified using all games for each team, but I favor Marquette by 3 points using only games against decent competition and I’d be on the Eagles if not for the fact that the Irish are 8-0-1 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses under coach Mike Brey.

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

Oklahoma State