Super Bowl Sunday [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

01-31-2009, 02:14 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Super Bowl XLIII

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Sunday, February 1
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PITTSBURGH (14 - 4) vs. ARIZONA (12 - 7) - 2/1/2009, 6:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 78-48 ATS (+25.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

---NFL
Short Sheet

Sunday, February 1

Super Bowl XLIII
Tampa, FL
TV: NBC
Philadelphia vs. Arizona, 6:20 ET

Pittsburgh:
6-1 ATS off home win
32-16 ATS off game w/ TO margin of +3 or better

Arizona:
8-0 Over off a SU win as a dog
13-5 Over as an underdog

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Trend Sheet
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6:20 PM PITTSBURGH vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

01-31-2009, 02:15 PM

Free Pick from Vegas Sports Informer Take ‘Under’ 23.5 – First Half – Pittsburgh vs. Arizona (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 1)

Arizona will probably be a little nervous and the Steelers defense will want to make some big plays early and avoid giving up the big plays as Arizona did against the Eagles.

01-31-2009, 02:15 PM

Free Pick from Strike Point Sports Super Bowl Prop - Who will have more receptions, Limas Sweed or Jerheme Urban? Take Urban -160.

Jerheme Urban has been a very reliable receiver for the Cardinals this season. And with Boldin's hamstring still unknown of how healthy it is, as well as the multiple receiver sets Arizona uses, there is a great chance he is on the field a lot more than Sweed, and that presents him more opportunities for balls his way. Go with Urban in this prop..

01-31-2009, 02:15 PM

Free Pick from Robert ********. Super Bowl Prop - Result of the first coaching challenge will be: Call Overturned (+105)

Think about this: in such a big game neither coach is going to be frivolous with their timeouts, or their challenges. If Mike Tomlin or Ken Whisenhunt reaches for that red flag on Sunday you know that they are doing so because someone is positive about a call. Coaches are always a bit more conservative in The Big Game and if there is no coaching challenges than this is a No Action. Like I said, to risk a timeout a coach is going to be extra sure that a play will be reversed so I love the value here.

01-31-2009, 02:16 PM

Tim Trushel

Pit

01-31-2009, 02:16 PM

Rob Veno

Pit and over

01-31-2009, 02:16 PM

Fairway Jay

Pit and over

01-31-2009, 02:17 PM

L O C K O F T H E D A Y . C O M

Superbowl Lock:

Pittsburgh Steelers -7

Don't be fooled into thinking the Cardinals have a chance at winning this game. Arizona is lucky to be here. Pittsburgh will put so much pressure on old man Kurt Warner he won't know what to do. Warner plays well at times; other times he commits turnover after turnover, interceptions, fumbles, you name it. MARK THIS DOWN: WARNER WILL HAVE A TERRIBLE GAME ON SUNDAY! The Steelers defense is unbelievable! #1 in the NFL, and maybe the best defense, statistically, ever. Arizona is ranked last in the league in rushing. If Arizona can't run and can't pass, how will they win? This game won't be close! Look for some big special teams plays from Santonio Holmes. Look for at least one defensive touchdown by the Steelers defense. Ben Roethlisberger is really playing well. Hines Ward and Holmes will get into the endzone. Willie Parker is the best running back on the field. Pittsburgh is better at just about every position. This is still the same Arizona team that lost 47-7 to New England. The same New England team Pittsburgh manhandled 33-10. This is the same Arizona team that gave up 56 points to the Jets and 35 points to the Vikings. If the Steelers can score 23 on the Ravens defense, how many can they score on the Cardinals defense?! 45?! THE STEELERS ARE A LOCK!!!

LOCK OF THE MONTH

Superbowl Prop Bet:

Edgerrin James Under 42.5 yds rushing

Bet the Under on this proposition bet! THERE IS NO WAY EDGERRIN JAMES COVERS THIS NUMBER!!!!!! First of all, James will be facing the #1 defense in the NFL. Nobody runs on Pittsburgh! Second, James doesn't get the ball!! Tim Hightower has earned the starting job. James gets a few carries to start the game, then Arizona will go to Hightower! Hightower is younger and quicker. James has seriously lost a step. He never makes anybody miss. He is easy to tackle and not elusive like he was to start his career. Arizona has the worst rushing offense in the NFL! They are ranked last! Furthermore, what will happen in this game? The Steelers will have a big second half lead; Arizona will be forced to pass. They will not be running the ball. Even if they do, Hightower will get the carries. The Steelers held the Chargers to 15 yards rushing total!! James might not even play in the second half!

Prop bet Over is 42.5 yards -110 at Sportsbook.com

Prop bet Over is 40.5 yards -125 at Bookmaker.com

Prop bet Over is 38.5 yards -150 at World Sports Exchange

Prop bet Over is 41.5 yards -120 at most Vegas sportsbooks

This bet covers FOR SURE!!!!! Like all our Lock Of The Month wagers, this pick is worth 2 Lock wins or 2 Lock losses. It will be a big fat win!!! No doubt!!!

Superbowl Lock:

Pittsburgh Steelers -250 moneyline

Our third and final bet is simply the Steelers moneyline -250. Want a free $1000 bucks? Put $2500 on the Steelers moneyline and forget about it. EASY MONEY! The Steelers will dominate this game from the get-go. Unlike the past few Superbowls, this one will be a yawner. It won't be close. Take this moneyline bet and collect!!! This bet is worth 1 Lock win or 2.5 Lock losses. The Steelers are clearly the dominant team here. Arizona doesn't stand a chance. Invest any extra $$$ you have on the moneyline and you will get paid. Steelers are a Lock!

01-31-2009, 02:17 PM

Brent Crow

ARI and over

01-31-2009, 02:18 PM

Teddy Covers

ARI and over

01-31-2009, 02:18 PM

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game's betting line. They'll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.

SportsInsights.com and Superbowl XLIII

Contrarian Sports Investing

SportsInsights.com (“SIs”) believes in a contrarian approach to sports investing and seeks out value in the sports marketplace. One of the key parameters to SportsInsights' quantitative approach to sports betting is our proprietary sports betting percentages, compiled from several online sportsbooks. The betting percentages tell us the percentage of bets on each side of a bet. Our research has shown that it normally pays to “fade” the public or “bet against the Public.”

The Public typically likes taking the favorite in most sports events. However, this year's Superbowl shows the Public loving the Arizona Cardinals and their Cinderella march to the Superbowl. This is an interesting departure for the Public and shows how much “value” there might be on the Steelers. This contrarian factor of “fading” the Public points to the Steelers.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers

Current Betting Percentages on the Super Bowl
Pittsburg Steelers 42%
Arizona Cardinals 58%

Smart Money and Point Spread Line Movement

SportsInsights uses another indicator that we call “Smart Money Analysis.” This method is more selective but also more powerful because historically, it has had a better winning percentage than using “betting percentages” as a standalone indicator.

For the Superbowl, the “generally-available” line opened at Pittsburgh -6.5. As we saw above, early Superbowl betting has most of the bets (about 60%) coming in on the underdog Arizona Cardinals. Even with the majority of bets landing on Arizona, the line has inched up to Pittsburgh -7. This is a relatively large move in the NFL – especially near a “key number” like 7.

This means that “big money” – which is usually “smart money” – is taking the Steelers. In other words, even though most bettors are on Arizona, “big bets” on Pittsburgh are more than balancing the Public's action on Arizona. This indicator says to go along with the “smart money” and take Pittsburgh.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

Intangibles and Other Contrarian Angles

In addition to our “quant” or “technical” analysis of the sports marketplace (based on “betting percentages” and “line movement”), SportsInsights tries to analyze games using some approaches that resemble “fundamental analysis” in the financial markets.

For example, are there some extraneous factors that make a bet seem over-valued or under-valued? We try to “buy low and sell high” by using a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately?” factor. That is, the Public tends to exaggerate the importance of recent events.

Arizona's offense has been pounding the opposition. After being one of the highest-scoring teams during the regular season, Kurt Warner and crew have rung up more than 30 points in each of their playoff match-ups. Warner and his receivers look like they are playing pick-up football against a bunch of five-year-olds! The Public loves offense and this is another reason we feel that Arizona is currently over-valued. We'll “sell” the Cardinals at a recent “high.”

During the early part of the regular season, the media focused on teams like Tennessee and both NY teams as “Superbowl favorites.” Later in the season, fans saw teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, and the Colts streak into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers played “steady football” all season long and “quietly” (if you can call their defense quiet!) ran up a 12-4 record, yielding a league-low 223 points.

Some of the intangibles point to “selling” the Cardinals at a “high” and “buying” a great Steelers team that avoided being over-hyped.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

Quick Analysis of Recent Superbowl Scores

SportsInsights' analysts took a quick peek at recent Superbowl scores.
• 3 out of the last 5 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 4 out of the last 7 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 6 out the last 11 Superbowls were settled by a TD or less.

We normally hate giving 7 points or more (or even taking a favorite!). However, we let the numbers do the talking. And, yet again, the recent history of Superbowls (and an emphasis on shorter-term events) might be giving us some value. Over the much larger sample size of 42 Superbowl games:

• 29 out of 42 games have been settled by more than a TD.

Football fans seem to be forgetting how we used to see lopsided (and sadly, sometimes boring) Superbowls. This is giving us some value as the general Public is taking the points in this Superbowl.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

Overview

SportsInsights looks for value in a variety of ways. For more information about SportsInsights.com's philosophy on sports investing, please visit our articles on Sports Investing and Value. For live odds and SIs' exclusive “betting percentages” on major U.S. sporting events, please visit Sports Betting Systems Tools Plus Betting Odds and Articles.

Almost all of our regular angles and analysis of the “sports marketplace” point to contrarian value on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Remember to “shop for the best line” because you can still get Pittsburgh -6.5 if you check around. Does defense win Championships? We'll see in a few days.

Games to Watch - Playoff Editions (1-2 = 33.3%)
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5

01-31-2009, 02:18 PM

Kevin Kavitch aka Gamebreakers

The NFL playoffs have produced a 7-1 result heading into the Super Bowl. Overall a monitored 59-38-2 61% for the season and 23-9-1 72% during the past 8 weeks.

Sunday Feb. 1st

It's been a profitable season and Sunday's play backed with full analysis is ready. Check back on the weekend for prop wagers. The props have a very good track record and I'll be looking to find the right ones to exploit again this year. I'm currently ranked 5th in the NFL of the 331 cappers monitored by WagerTracker this season.

Arizona +7

I'm backing Arizona in the big game. Let's get to the point, the real heart and soul
of why I'm taking the points with the Cardinals. They are a long-time doormat, a
joke among the league for many years. They believe in their coaches and won't be
intimidated. In fact, I love them in the underdog role given their history. Don't
discount what their history and togetherness means when it comes to motivation and
performance. That doesn't show up in the numbers and the talking heads on TV don't
put enough value on this. They won't be able to see past the Pittsburgh D. Keep in
mind they were also dogs vs Atlanta, Carolina, and Philly headed into this one and
"shocked" the public in each game. This was supposed to be "the worst playoff team
in NFL history". You know what I think of this team because we've picked up 2 solid
wins with them in the playoffs and the same things apply. The fact is
they're undervaled because of a slide in the 2nd half of the season which is
understandable given their huge lead in the division. With a solid OL that has
played together all year, a top-flight QB playing at the top of his game, a great
group of receivers, and an improved D they have a punchers chance against anyone.
That includes the Steelers and that terrific D. Remember what they did in the 1st
half of the Carolina and Philly games to the opposing defenses, defenses that were
playing at high levels. Arizona proved to be too much, especially Warner who knows
how to read D's and play in big games. Also remember that in the Steelers last 4
games, Tennesee put up 31 and San Diego put up 24. They are very good but not
invincible and Arizona has scored 30+ in 3 straight playoff games this year. The
Steeler offense isn't going to dominate the Cardinals. Arizona is much improved vs
the run down the stretch and they can put pressure on the QB and force turnovers. If
Arizona plays well offensively, Pittsburgh is not going to have a cake-walk keeping
pace. Then you get to the coaching staffs and I really like the knowledge the
Arizona staff has when it comes to Pittsburgh. Alot of ex-Steeler coaches that have
2 weeks to figure out how to put all those little things to use. I won't go into
alot of detail, just know a significant edge is there. So Arizona was a joke for
years and maybe the Arizona coaches know some stuff but it still doesn't mean much
to you? C'mon, we're talking Pittsburgh here. Well, think back to 2002 when the
longtime doormat Bucs led by ex-Raider coach Gruden faced off against favored
Oakland. The Bucs won outright by 27 and delivered us a solid Super Bowl win that day. But you know what I remember? The players talking afterward about the motivation they had after being a bad team for so long and the edge the former Raider coach game them.
Sound similar to what we have here? It does to me. That's the soul of this game. Add
that Super Bowl it all underdogs have performed extremely well this decade and we're
catching +7 on a neutral field. That's a big edge and could easily come into play.
I'm taking Arizona for a 4* Regular Play plus I'm laying an extra 1/2* on Ariona to
win outright on the +220 moneyline.

Enjoy the game and check the site on the weekend for additional prop wagers.

01-31-2009, 02:19 PM

Scott ferrall

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SUPER BOWL PROP BETS
TAILS -105

STEELERS WIN COIN TOSS -106

STEELERS RECEIVE OPENING KICK -105

PITTSBURGH -150 to SCORE FIRST

TEAM TO SCORE LAST (ARIZONA +100)

WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN FIRST 6 MIN ?** YES -105

WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE 3 STRAIGHT TIMES WITHOUT OTHER TEAM SCORING=* NO +140 (conversions excluded)

WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN LAST 2 MIN OF FIRST HALF ?** YES -240

WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN LAST 3 1/2 MIN OF GAME ?** NO* +130

FIRST SCORE WILL BE= TD -170

FIRST TD WILL BE A (PASS OR ANY OTHER SCORE) ?*** ANY OTHER SCORE +160

LAST SCORE OF GAME WILL BE ?*** TD -210

WILL 1 QTR OF GAME BE SCORELESS ?** NO -280

WILL STEELERS HAVE FIRST HALF RUSHING TD ?** YES +100

STEELERS WILL SCORE IN BOTH 1st AND 2nd QTRS ?* YES -170

STEELERS WILL CONVERT a 4th DOWN IN GAME ?* YES +140

CARDINALS WILL SCORE A RUSHING TD ?* NO* -150

CARDINALS WILL SCORE IN 1st and 2nd QTRS ?* NO -140

BIG BEN OVER 17.5 COMPLETIONS** -115
BIG BEN OVER 30.5 PASS ATTEMPTS -115

HINES WARD TD ?* NO -170

SANTONIO HOLMES SCORED TD ?* YES +150

HEATH MILLER TD ?** YES* +180

KURT WARNER TD PASS in 1st HALF ?* YES* -145

WARNER INTERCEPTION ?* YES -220

HIGHTOWER TD ?* NO -250

EDGE JAMES TD RUSHING ?* NO -440

FITZGERALD TD ?* YES -115

BOLDIN TD ?* NO -180

BREASTON TD ?* YES

FIRST INTERCEPTION ?* WARNER -200

FIRST TD PASS ?* BIG BEN -130

ODDS TO WIN MVP ?* SANTONIO HOLMES 15-1

FIRST SCORE ?* STEELER TD PASS 4-1

HIGHEST SCORING QTR ?** 3rd (3-1)

STEELERS WIN BY 12-15 points** (6-1)

2/1/2009
ULTIMATE SUPER BOWL TEASER
(RISK VIG x 4--$140 laid out to win 100--loser pays $140)

STEELERS +5************************* CARDINALS +19
OVER 35*********************************** UNDER 59
based on Steelers -7******************** based on over/under 47

2/1/2009
SUPER BOWL 1ST HALF SPREAD
PITTSBURGH -3.5 to Zona

2/1/2009
SUPER BOWL SPREAD AND TOTAL
PITTSBURGH -7 to Arizona

OVER 47

SUBJECT TO LINE CHANGE

2/1/2009
SUPER BOWL FEB 1 MONEY LINE
PITTSBURGH -250

01-31-2009, 02:19 PM

THE PREZz

8* Arizona
5* over

01-31-2009, 02:19 PM

LT PROFITS

3*pitt

01-31-2009, 02:20 PM

Alex Smart

7* pitt

01-31-2009, 02:20 PM

spylock

Pittsburgh....1 unit

01-31-2009, 02:21 PM

HUDDLE UP SPORTS

Lock Parlay
Pittsburgh -7

&

Arizona/Pittsburgh under 46'

01-31-2009, 02:21 PM

Doug Williams

With the line moving slightly, I've got two picks -- depending on where the line is when you place your bets.

If the line is Pittsburgh -6.5, take the Steel Curtain as small faves, BUT if you can get action on the Cardinals at +7 or higher, put some faith in Warner, Fitzgerald and that crazy passing game.

Over/Under 46.5 -- Take the OVER. This game will be pushing up the total from the 1st Quarter. Even if you don't root for either of these teams, cheer for scores and pad your bankroll.

01-31-2009, 02:21 PM

Mike Francesa - WFAN & YES
Pitt 34-23
Does feel there will be a special teams td or a t/o return for TD for Pitt

01-31-2009, 02:22 PM

APwins

SUPER BOWL PICK

Cardinals +7 over Steelers

01-31-2009, 02:22 PM

Chuck Luck

4* AZ +7
4* Over 46.5
2* AZ ML

01-31-2009, 02:52 PM

SPORTSNETWORK:
OVERALL ANALYSIS

If you believe in the adage that says defense wins championships, then you certainly believe that the Steelers will be standing alongside commissioner Roger Goodell on the championship platform on Sunday night. Pittsburgh has been consistently strong on that side of the football all season, and though Arizona has plenty of offensive weapons to challenge that unit, it's going to take a flawless performance from the Cardinals' attack in order to win this game. The Steelers aren't a great offensive football team, but have proved throughout these playoffs that they can make the big plays necessary to get on the scoreboard. Finally, there's something to be said for experience. The Steelers have simply been in many more of these big-game situations over the past half-decade or so than the Cardinals, who have the look of a team playing with house money.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Steelers 27, Cardinals 17

01-31-2009, 02:52 PM

Phenom

Pittsburgh Steelers

01-31-2009, 02:52 PM

Steve Budin

SUNDAY'S PICK
50 DIME

PITTSBURGH

Note From Steve Budin:

50 DIME

PITTSBURGH

Note From Steve Budin:

Pittsburgh is between a 6 1/2 to 7 point favorite. In either case, buy down 1 full point. The logic here from a former bookmaker's perspective is that you will find more games ending on six than seven.

The key in this game is to shop around. The line dropped in Vegas to 6 1/2 at a few sportsbooks as early as Wednesday. Finding that price should be your goal.

If you have Pittsburgh -7, I suggest you buy down the 1 point to -6 so you get the win should Pittsburgh win by seven or a push with a win by six.

If you have Pittsburgh -6 1/2, I suggest you buy down the 1 point to -5 1/2 so you get the win should Pittsburg win by six.

In either case above, you are paying somewhere in the neighborhood of -135 for the purchase of that 1 full point.

If for some reason you get Pittsburgh -7 1/2 (which should not be the case since this price has dropped, not risen) even after shopping around, buy down the 1 point still to -6 1/2 so you get the win should Pittsburgh only prevail by a touchdown.

Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry that too many gamblers and handicappers needlessly buy half points on all types of numbers. In this case, however, it's a wise investment strategy, using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker.

Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.

01-31-2009, 02:53 PM

Bob Balfe

NFL Football
Arizona/Pittsburgh Under 46.5
Both teams are really going to struggle running the football in this game. Pittsburgh has a great defense, but Arizona also has a defense who can stop the run and their secondary has players who are big and can cover well. If both teams do not have balance I do not see this being a high scoring game. This is not a football game, this is a bigtime event which means teams take a while to settle in. Pittsburgh does not have the offensive firepower to score a ton of points. Arizona does have the ability to score quick, but they pride themselves on long drives which is great for an under play. I could not pick a side in this game. On paper I do like the Cardinals. They have a better offense then the Steelers, but they are not going to move the ball at will against this defense. I would not be shocked to see Pittsburgh cover in the same way as they did against the Ravens two weeks ago. The key to this game is Steelers Defensive Coordinator Dick Lebow who is as good as anyone ever to walk this earth in stopping the oppositions offense. Another key is Arizona Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt who was the Steelers Offensive Coordinator in Super Bowl XL. Whisenhunt knows the Steelers offense well and can give his defense valuable information on how to defend them. Also, I do not see Arizona connecting on a lot of trick plays in this game, the Steelers defense is just too good and will be ready for it. This reminds me a lot of the Bucs/Raiders Super Bowl a few years ago except both staffs really know each other well. This might be the first Super Bowl in a while that is actually won on coaching and not talent. Look for a hard hitting game with it staying under the total.

01-31-2009, 02:53 PM

ATS Financial Club pick is out for the Super Bowl The pick is:

OVER 46 1/2

01-31-2009, 02:53 PM

Norm Hitzges

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Here is Norm Hitzges' Super Bowl writeup:

The Super Bowl
Trends, Analysis and Facts

Here's a gathering of various historical trends and angles applying to the Super Bowl.

The last 13 Super Bowls in which the teams were NOT equally seeded (e.g.--Pitt is the AFC's #2 seed facing Arizona the #4 NFC seed) the lower seed has posted a 10-1-2 ATS mark. This favors Arizona.

Teams entering a Super Bowl off a SU upset victory (like Arizona) are 11-6-1 ATS.

Zona's won 4 straight games. The last time they had a 5-game win streak was 1972!!

QB Ben Foethlisberger's 7-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs for Pittsburgh. He's also 29-13 ATS in his career as a favorite of 4 or more points (Wow!)

This decade AFC teams favored by 6 or more points vs NFC teams with a greater than 40% win percentage are 33-15-1 ATS.

In the last 13 Super Bowls the favorete's gone 4-7-2 ATS.

If 'Zona can hold Pitt under 30 points this beauty kicks in: The last 15 favorites to score less than 30 points are 2-12-1 ATS.

The last 25 teams who scored 20 or less points in the Super Bowl are 1-24 SU and 4-20-1 ATS. The lone winners? Last season's Giants in their 17-14 upset victory.

Exactly half of the 42 Super Bowls played have been decided by 14 points or more. In 11 other games the victory margin was between 7 and 13 points.

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The Game Itself
Pittsburgh (-7) vs Arizona Total: 46.5

There are some truly deceiving numbers in the matchups in Super Bowl XLIII.

It looks like a mediocre Steelers offense (#22 in the league) vs a mediocre Arizona defense (#19 in the NFL)

Then there's 'Zona's marvelous offense (#4) vs the #1 rated Pitt defense.

But let's look closer:

1) Pitt's supposedly shaky offense full season rating can be so deceiving. These Steelers have averaged a whopping 28.5 ppg their last 8 games and that includes meetings with some of the league's best defenses. Pitt's the #1 rated scoring "D" in the league. After them in the defensive ratings came: Tennessee, Baltimore, Philly, and the Giants. 9 of Pitt's 18 games have been against the other seven best defenses in the league. In addition, the Steelers have played several games in shaky weather conditions.

2) Arizona's apparently porous defense. Be very careful. this unit has come together to force 12 turnovers in three playoff games. They've faced Atlanta's Michael Turner, Carolina's DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart and Philly's Brian Westbrook in the playoffs and those terrific runners combined did not total 200 yards rushing. The Cards defense smothered Carolina star receiver Steve Smith holding him to a pair of harmless catches. Forget the season rankings. This Cards "D: has performed far better than its regular season ranking.

The other half of the matcup features real numbers. The Arizona offense and the Pitt defense deserve the respect their numbers suggest. Pitt, in fact allowed only one team to gain over 290 yards in aa game this year (Tennessee got 373).

Offensively Arizona's running game has perked up in the playoffs. Pitt ground game has benefitted from the return to health of Willie Parker. Both offenses should be ready to attack--especially Arizona.

I believe these Cards know they cannot sit back and simply slug it out with Pitt. They must go right after the Steelers. Warner's been terrific in the two Super Bowls he's played in and I don't feel will be rattled by the Steelers. Zona simply can't figure it will win this game playing conservatively. I look for them to go long early and often.

This, for me, sets up a higher scoring game. Pitt really hasn't faced a passing attack with this kind of potency and Pitt's offense is, as detailed, significantly better than it appears.

DOUBLE PLAY: TAKE PITT/ARIZONA OVER THE TOTAL
SINGLE PLAY: TAKE ARIZONA PLUS THE POINTS

01-31-2009, 02:53 PM

ATS Lock Club
5 Cardinals +7 (buy half point if you can)

01-31-2009, 02:54 PM

January 31 2009
frank patron special weekend offer

second ever 50000 unit nfl lock

pittsburgh steelers -6.5

01-31-2009, 02:54 PM

Rainman
5* Pitt
2* Over

Props (says play 1/4 your normal bet)
National Anthem Over
Team Punt First Arizona
Special Team or Defensive Score YES
Longest Punt Return - PITT
Arizona under 20 points
Arizona convert a 4th down- YES
1st Player to Score- Parker, Fitzgerald, Breston, Miller, Ward

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 10:30 AM

EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 4* Pittsburgh (-) vs. Arizona, 6:20 PM EST on Sunday, February 1st

It all comes down to this? The Arizona Cardinals are in the Super Bowl?! Sure they have had a nice run the last three weeks to get here, but they DO NOT stand a chance against the Steelers. Pittsburgh has played 13 games this year (including playoffs) against teams with a .500 record or better. They are much more battle tested than the Cardinals and have the NFL’s best defense. They have also used this extra week off to heal up after their very physical match-up with the Ravens in the conference championship. Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is a mastermind when it comes to scheming against opposing offenses and he won’t allow Arizona to jump out to an early lead, as the Cardinals have throughout the playoffs. With a far superior defense and an opportunistic offense, the Pittsburgh Steelers will be crowned the NFL Champions on February 1st.

Arizona has been playing very well since their 7-47 loss to New England on Dec. 21st. The Cardinals are averaging 32 points and 386 yards per game in their last 4 games. In the playoffs alone, they have 95 total points in just 3 games. They have been jumping to early leads as 65 of their 95 playoff points have come in the first half. Arizona has been playing the role as the underdog to perfection, as NO ONE expected them to make it this far, and they have benefited from playing two playoff games at home and also a road game in which Carolina committed 6 turnovers. We do not see Pittsburgh taking Arizona lightly, committing silly turnovers, or allowing Arizona to jump to an early lead.

We mentioned before how Pittsburgh has the best defense in the NFL, ranking 1st in passing defense, scoring defense, and total defense, and 2nd in rushing defense. Since their Nov. 9th loss to the Colts, the Steelers pass defense allows just 51% completions for 168 yards per game, allowing just 6 touchdowns and forcing 16 interceptions. Their great pass defense is correlated with their pass rush, as they were 2nd in the NFL during the regular season with 51 sacks. Arizona QB Kurt Warner has had a great post-season so far, but he hasn’t seen a defense like Pittsburgh’s.

This makes the Cardinals season just getting to this point, as they didn’t expect to be here at all. The Steelers aren’t satisfied with just ‘being here,’ they are expecting to walk away with the Lombardi Trophy. They have more playoff experience and a better defense; going with the old cliché: Defense wins championships. Go with Pittsburgh.

Paid for and confirmed
BOL - Yakamashii

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 10:31 AM

ETHAN LAW

Verdict: Pittsburgh 24, Arizona 17
PLAY 1* UNIT ON STEELERS/CARDINALS UNDER 47

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 10:31 AM

Ez Winners

10 * Zona

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 10:31 AM

RON RAYMOND’S 5* NFL SUPER BOWL PICK! ** **

Pick # 1 Pittsburgh Steelers / Arizona Cardinals Under 46 -110

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 10:31 AM

ATS Sports Club
February 1, 2009

NFL Winners:

Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
Steelers/Cardinals over 46

Soccer Back of the Net Winners:

French Ligue 1
Marseille vs. Sochaux over 2

Dutch Eredivisie
NEC Nijmegen vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam over 2.5

Dutch Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam vs. AZ Alkmaar over 2.5

I'll have the rest of the card in the morning.

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 10:32 AM

ChicagoSportsConnection

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CSC NCAAB
OVER 114.5...Iowa@ Ill..............2 EDT
The # is set low because the last two meetings betwen these two finished at 105 and 114.
Also...ILL scored 36 points VS Minn on Wednesday.
The best way for ILL to forget about that low output will be to score 65 or 70 today vs Iowa.
ILL averages 72 points @ home.
..............predicted score...ILL 69-59
*************************************************
NBA
OVER 180...Cleveland @ Detroit...2:20 EDT
11 of the past 12 CLEV games have finished OVER 180 .
3 of the past 4 DET games have finished OVER 180.
.......predicted score...CLEV 96-94
*************************************************
SUPER BOWL
Tough call.
Let's sit back and enjoy the day.
Bet a couple props....
Listen to Madden talk about food...
Watch "Bruce" ruin the halftime show with his garbage music....
Watch the silly comercials....and just plain enjoy ourselves.
We deserve some relaxation.

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 10:32 AM

Bryan Leonard

Plays are rated from 2-5*s for strength & bankroll %

2* Arizona & Pittsburgh

We talked about this with our Cardinals selection over the Eagles earlier in the playoffs and for those who didn't purchase the play we will reiterate. Arizona didn't play 16 games in the regular season like most other teams, they played just 13 meaningful games. You see they had the division sewn up early on and didn't need to exert the kind of effort that the Steelers had to use each week. The Cardinals had the ability to pick and choose which games they could concentrate their efforts on and it saved them come playoff time. Arizona was sitting at 7-3 and were hosting the Super Bowl favorite Giants in a Sunday night game in the desert. Despite giving it their all they fell to the defending champs 37-29. They then had to travel to Philadelphia to play a Thursday night game on short rest. Obviously the Cards cared little about this game and the Eagles blasted them 48-20. The Cards were able to get their revenge in the playoffs when both teams had something to play for. The following week Arizona beat St Louis 34-10 to clinch the division and their first playoff game is what seems like forever. As pointed out by Howie Long on the pregame show the following week the Cardinals partied like it was 1999. Long said he had never seen a team still celebrating the victory this far along in the week, and it showed as Minnesota crushed the Cards 35-14. The following week with again nothing to play for Arizona (a warm weather team) traveled to New England to face not only a Patriot team in a must win situation, but blizzard weather conditions with below zero temperatures. As expected the Cards mailed the game in as New England pounced 47-7. So keep in mind when you talk about the overall stats for Arizona that not all games are considered equal.

Pittsburgh is thought of as a terrific defensive team, but take a look at their schedule. Cleveland twice, Cincinnati twice, Baltimore twice, Jacksonville, Washington and Tennessee. While we know this Steeler defense is very good they have been playing either in terrible weather or against weak offensive opposition. So how has Pittsburgh done against playoff competition? Besides Baltimore who they beat three times, they lost to Philadelphia by 9 at home, lost to the Giants by 7 at home, lost to the Colts by 4 at home, beat San Diego by a single point at home before winning the playoff rematch, and lost at Tennessee by 17 on the road.

Arizona is every bit as good as the Steelers, especially getting a full touchdown. Grab up the last of the sevens and look for the Cardinals to take this one to the wire.

PLAY ARIZONA

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 10:32 AM

indiancowboy

5 Unit Play. #102. Take Arizona Cardinals +7 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday @ 6:20pm). I will gladly take the team that defeated my Falcons at home. Bear in mind that these two teams actually met a few years in ago in Arizona and the Cardinals handled this team fine 21-14 on September 30th, 2007. Why do I mention that game? Well, Kurt Warner picked up apart this Steelers defense fairly well and note, he only ended up playing roughly half the game in that contest and completed14 of 21 attempts, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions. Well, now Kurt will get to play the entire game. Big Ben did throw for 2 touchdowns in that game but also threw 2 interceptions. Bear in mind that this Cardinals team deserves to be here for the simple fact they beat the Falcons, Eagles and the best team in the NFC Panthers on the road - and frankly, hammered them on the road. Although Boldin has been grumbling, I'm sure those issues have been ironed out for the Big Game and frankly, it ends up being a great deception as the Cards are well focused for this game. Look, the Cardinals are made of many, many ex-steeler coaches and contact. From the Cardinals head coach who knows Big Ben inside out to the assistant coach who knows their offensive line very well, the Cardinals will be more than prepared for this game. Nothing against Mike Tomlin, but Ken Whisenhunt is the better coach. The Cardinals have nothing to lose, they will come in this game ready to wheel and deal - remember Kurt has won his Super Bowl already - and Whisenhurt is awesome and getting his players up and ready for the big game. After all, look at the last 3 contests for Cardinals. They were all games in which these had to fight adversity, and either come back or take on the underdog role. In short, the Cardinals could very well win this game outright. At worst, I expect this team to lose by a field goal to 5 points today but bear in mind the Cardinals have the offense and defensive pressure schemes to get it done today. I'll say it again, this game will come down to coaching and Whisenhunt is by far the better coach and I think that will end up being the difference today. Yes, the Steelers have the better defense, but if there is anyone that can pick apart that defense, it is Kurt Warner. He did it two years ago when he didn't have all the weapons he has today, he did it at Carolina and let's not forget this Cardinals offensive line has played together all season long. That's right, they have started together the entire season and this defensive line of the Cardinals is stout as well. I will take Arizona once again to win outright or just fall short in a competitive game. The Arizona Cardinals have nothing to lose. Heck, they have nothing to lose and should not even be here in some respects. This team will have a no holds bar approach and there is only one kryptonite to the Pittsburgh Steelers defense - someone who is as seasoned as it comes - Kurt Warner gets it done.

3 Unit Play. Take Over 46.5 between the Pittsburgh Steelers @ Arizona Cardinals (Sunday @ 6:20pm). I can see the arguments for both sides as it relates to how the side will play out. But, as per the total in this game, there is every reason to think that this has a great shot at going over. After all, considering the fact that the Steelers will take a page from the Eagles 2nd half book against the Cardinals, considering the Cardinals and their potent offense of their own spreading the field with Fitzgerald and Boldin, the over being 7-1 ATS when the Steelers are favored and the over being 38-13 for the Cardinals in their last 51 games as Underdogs, I epxect this game to go over. After all, there is plenty of blood between the coaching staffs of these two teams as many of the Steelers ex-coaches are now the lead at Arizona which makes for a great story line here - more importantly, it makes for an over.

1 Unit Prop Wager: Longest Field Goal of the Game Over 44.5 (-110): Can you imagine a drive stalling at the 30-35 yard line for either team? I sure can. I believe both these offenses will have success and consequently will drive the ball successfully down field. Of course, this does not mean they will get to the endzone each time as I believe the defenses will tighten up as the opposing offenses approach the endzone. I look for both teams to allow the other to get across midfield, but then tighten up and consequently results in several long field goal attempts. There is no reason why there should not be a successfull field goal made over 44.5 and who knows, maybe that field goal could very well be the game winner.

1 Unit Prop Wager: Field Goals Made: Over 3.5 (-110). If you read the analysis is above, you will understand the take I have on this game. Once again, I believe both teams will have success moving the ball on the opposing team and who is to say that one team alone might not chuck up four field goals? Look for both offensive coordinators to have success but then drives to stall as they opposing team gets further down field. I expect around 5 field goals, so this is a take considering it is just at 3.5. Heck, the first half alone could yield 3 field goals and the second half will yield at least one in my opinion.

1 Unit Prop Wager: Cardinals will Convert more than 4.5 - 3rd down Conversions (-110). The Arizona Cardinals would not have made it to the playoffs, would not have won their division, would not have beat the Falcons at home, would not have crushed the Panthers on the road and would not have beat the Eagles at home if they did not time and time again convert third downs. They are not going to Tampa like the Seattle Seahawks to get embarrassed by this team. The Cardinals will be fired up, ready to roll and there is no better kryptonite to the Steelers defense, than Kurt Warner. I look for the Cardinals to convert several third downs in one drive alone and to have a no holds bar approach and they could very well achieve this mark by mid 3rd quarter.

Good luck,

Indian Cowboy.

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 10:32 AM

DOC

4 Unit Play. #101 Take Pittsburgh over Arizona (Sunday 6:20 pm NBC) The Cardinals will try and break the second longest championship drought in professional sports history but that will continue as this game belongs to Pittsburgh. As the saying goes, defense wins championships and Pittsburgh has a major edge in this department with the No. 1 ranked defense in the league. The Steelers will shutdown the Arizona running attack and not let Fitzgerald beat them with big plays down the middle of the field. Arizona has an edge of offense, but I believe that Pittsburgh will be able to get pressure on QB Warner and force him into a couple of turnovers. QB Roethlisberger does not put up flashy stats, but he is a winner and makes plays when the pressure is on him. Teams that have reached the Super Bowl for the first time have traditionally not done well in the big game and we fully expect that trend to hold true once again. Pittsburgh dominates this game for sixty minutes and we collect big in the process as well. Pitt 27, Arizona 13.

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 10:33 AM

Handicapper: John Ryan
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals (NFL) - 6:25 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 7/-112 Arizona Cardinals Play Title: Arizona
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on the Arizona Cardinals over the pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLII. AiS shows an 86% probability that Arizona will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and also has a 60% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a strong money line system that has produced a record of 34-19 for 64% making 22.6 units since 1983. The average play has been a dog of +123. Play on any team versus the money line after 4 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Here is a second ML system that has gone 94-52 ATS making 31.9 units since 1998. Play on any team versus the money line with a good offense averaging 5.4 or more yards/play and after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game. Here is a third ML system that has gone 51-28 making 17.2 units since 2002. Play on any team versus the money line after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread and with a winning record in the second half of the season. Let's take a look at some of the game dependent angles as defined by the AiS. Cardinals have a 90% probability of gaining 3 to 3.5 yards per rush and 6.0 to 6.5 net passing yards per attempt. Note that the Steelers are just 1-5 ATS over the past 3 seasons when they allow 6 to 6.5 passing yards per attempt in a game and 1-8 ATS when they allow 3.0 to 3.5 rushing yards per attempt. Much press has been made about the Steeler defense and rightfully so, but it will be the cardinals defense that will dominate this game. Steelers have an 86% probability of scoring less than 21 points in this game. note that Arizona is 12-3 ATS when they allow 15 to 21 points in a game over the past 3 seasons. Even before the current coaching regime arrived in Arizona the Cardinals have nearly always done well against top level defenses. They are 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus excellent defensive teams allowing <=260 yards/game since 1992. Arizona is in a very strong role for this game noting they are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season. Based on my matchup analysis, which serves ONLY to REINFORCE the Ai Simulator grading the Steelers have no one to cover Fitzgerald in man coverage. The same unsolvable problem presents to the Steelers defense that faced the Eagles. The Eagles failed miserably in the first half and yes they did get pressure on Warner, but it did not matter. Fitzgerald is the best player on the field bar none and Warner;s experience enables him to read and feel blitzes before they happen. If the Steelers choose to double team Fitzgerald, it will once again be an easy read at the LOS. Zone blitz are set-up in close proximity to the LOS and whatever players are involved cannot then back off add help double team Fitzgerald. This simple read will enable Warner to audible to power run between the tackles just like the winning scheme against the Eagles. Let's face it Boldin will want to have his best game ever, if nothing else then to put his stellar talents on display. This WR combination reminds me of 49er Super bowl teams of the past and they will just be too much for Pittsburgh to contain for 4 quarters. I would love to discuss the Steeler side of the ball, but I also need the remaining space to give you the prop bets. In summary, Arizona will control both sides of the LOS and the Steelers will struggle to execute long scoring drives. Here are the prop bets and I would not put more than 1.5* units on any one of them. These appear on Bodog. Curt Warner needs 364 passing yards to break the All-time Super Bowl record held by Joe Montana. Take "YES" he will at +500. With that said take Curt Warner passing yards OVER 265.5. Take Curt Warner OVER a 62% completion percentage. Take Edgerrin James OVER 49.5 rushing yards. Take Fitzgerald OVER 95.5 passing yards. Take Boldin OVER 67.5 receiving yards. Also take Boldin to have more receptions than Hines Ward. Last, thank you so very much for all of your support this year and for many of you the past 15 years. It has been quite a run and look forward to even better 2009.

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 10:33 AM

ATS Lock Club
5 Mich ST. -12.5
4 Villanova -11.5
4 Illinois -12.5

ATS Financial Package
4 St. John's -2.5
3 Dayton -4

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 10:33 AM

NSA's Selection
NFL Pittsburgh vs Arizona 6:25 20* Pittsburgh -6.5
NFL Pittsburgh vs Arizona 6:25 10* UNDER 46.5
CBB St Joe's @ Dayton 12:00 10* Dayton -3.5
CBB Iowa @ Illinois 2:00 10* Illinois -12.5
CBB Virginia @ Duke 2:00 10* Duke -22.5
NBA Cleveland @ Detroit 2:30 10* Cleveland -4

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 10:33 AM

Kelso

2008 PERSONAL BEST FOOTBALL CLUB
Sunday, February 01, 2009
100 Units
Cardinals (+6½) over Steelers
6:25 PM -- Super Bowl XLIII - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa,
Arizona by 3-4

10 Units
Steelers/Cardinals OVER 46½ Points
6:25 PM -- Super Bowl XLIII - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa,
49 or more points
Proposition Bet #1: Will game go to overtime? Yes +700
Proposition Bet #2: Will Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona) score at least one touchdown? Yes -105
Proposition Bet #3: Player to score first touchdown of game: Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona) 6-1

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 10:33 AM

Craig Davis

Super Bowl Lineup

75 Dime ---- CARDINALS

ARIZONA CARDNALS --- (if line is +6 ½, buy the half point to +7. If you line is +7, buy the half point up to +7 1/2 )

Okay boys and girls, it’s time to let the bankroll we’ve built up over the last 28 days start to work for us. Our NFL playoff run has been pretty remarkable and it’s time to cap it off with this HUGE Super Bowl winner on the Arizona Cardinals. Unfortunately for me, they’re probably mad at me for NOT backing them two weeks ago vs. Philly despite the fact I backed them in the previous two games (both easy winners). Let me make one thing perfectly clear --- this is gambling and NOTHING is ever 100% certain in gambling other than the fact there will be winners and losers and the losers will pay juice. Other than that, we’re dealing with the unknown until the game scoreboard hits all zeroes. That’s why we have to manage our money wisely. Yes, this is a HUGE play for me in the NFL, no doubt. But please understand me when I tell you I’m not asking you to take all your winnings from the last month with me and put it ALL on this game. That’s silly. Use our money management (dime) system to make sure we are playing smart. We’ll play a few bonus PROP plays a little later if you want to have a little fun with the game.

Now, why do I like the Cardinals against this Steelers vaunted defense? Well, it’s quite simply really. I’ve seen them do it too many times this season against other solid defenses and I just don’t believe they can be stopped. Sure, you can slow them at times if you can get pressure on Kurt Warner… but what about the times you don’t get pressure? What happens is you actually give Warner time to look downfield and throw the football? I believe, with complete certainty, this is the best receiving trio of WRs we’ve seen assembled together on one team, EVER!! I fully realize this Steelers’ secondary has been as hard hitting and ball-hawking as any defense we’ve seen this season, but they take chances. In my opinion, they take too many chances. And as often as it can turn into an turnover, it can turn into a big play for the offense and there’s no better “big play” offense in the NFL than the Arizona Cardinals, period.

And one of the reasons I believe the passing will have success early is because the running game be able to set the early tempo. Edgerrin James might be “over the hill”, but the guy can still run and you know he’s healthy (and fresh) after having sat out much of the second half of the season. Raise your hands if you’re sick and tired of hearing the media tell us how fresh Willie Parker is? James is just as fresh and get to run behind, in my opinion, a bigger, better offensive line. Once James gets going, it will open up a plethora of options for OC Todd Haley. And speaking of Haley, is there a better offensive play-caller in the NFL right now? This guy has it figured out and just knows the right time to dial up a quick slant to beat opposing blitzes… just ask the Eagles. Philly was the third ranked defense in the league and was on a string of seven straight games of allowing 14 points or less until it visited Arizona two weekends ago. The Cardinals screwed that up royally, much the way they plan to shred the Steelers secondary in Tampa tonight.

On the other side of the ball, don’t expect the Cardinals to roll over and die because the Steelers are going to “out-physical” them in the trenches. Darnell Dockett, Bert Berry and the front four in Arizona have been anything but a pushover for their last three opponents, racking up several sacks and shutting down the running game of Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams (although that was more self-imposed) and Brian Westbrook last week. Like I said, I’m sick of hearing how fresh Willie Parker is and there’s no way for me to think he’s going to be the difference in this game --- he’s not. In order for Pittsburgh to succeed, they MUST rely on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger to find the injured Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Nate Washington and TE Heath Miller over the middle and downfield. Arizona’s defense is much like Pittsburgh’s, as they take chances and love to blitz from all angles and areas of the field. They led the NFC in takeaways and we all know how much Big Ben loves to give the ball away. He’s been sacked for an average of 19 YPG this season and last year when these two hooked up Arizona sacked Roethlisberger four times for -39 yards. Pittsburgh will definitely be able to throw the ball with some success, but so did Tom Brady and the Patriots last year and we all saw the results of that game.

And for those who have been telling me that the Steelers defense will be the best Arizona has seen all season and how they will be able to shut down Edgerrin James while easily sacking Kurt Warner might want to think again. Warner has been sacked for just -12 YPG this season and was sacked only twice last week by the blitz-happy Eagles. If it were up to Mike Tomlin, I’m not sure the Steelers would be a 3-4 defense, but Tomlin has left that to Dick LeBeau and his defensive staff to figure out. So far so good. Tomlin is a disciple of Monte Kiffin and his Tampa 2 style of defense and might get into somewhat of an internal struggle if the Cardinals find success through the air early.

And speaking of coaches, the Cardinals staff is full of guys who have coached with the Steelers at some point so you can expect them to have the upper hand, at least early on, when it comes to being one step ahead of your opponent. Remember Tampa vs. Oakland a few years back? Jon Gruden knew everything about the Raiders from the previous years and used that to his advantage in the Super Bowl. This is TOO BIG of a fact to overlook because Whisenhunt and his staff know the ins-and-outs of the entire Steelers’ organization.

They’re 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight vs. the AFC for a reason and you can bet they’ll use any information they have to their advantage in this one. They’re good folks… they’re really good and they could easily get the SU win in Super Bowl XLIII. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 24 or more points in two of their last four games (31 to Tennessee and 24 to San Diego) and I’m telling you Arizona’s offense is better than what this defense has seen all season. Take the points and enjoy your Super Bowl winner.

PROP PLAYS FOR FUN ---

Both Teams to Make A FG of 33 YDS. Or Longer ---- YES
Team with Most Time of Possession --- ARIZONA
Kurt Warner Total Pass Attempts --- UNDER 40.5
Will Tim Hightower Score --- YES

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 10:34 AM

kelso BB
50 units Duke -22

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 10:35 AM

Triple Threat Sports!

2* Pittsburgh (-7) over Arizona

3* Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Arizona (See below)

3* Pittsburgh/Arizona UNDER 46.5/47

Five minutes after the NFC Championship Game was over, we had made our line on this game, and it was Pittsburgh -8 with a total of 43. Two weeks later not much has changed, and we like the Steelers and the Under here. We like the Steeler side because we really like experience in big games in any sport, and most of the Pittsburgh roster has SB pedigree as this team was here just a couple of years ago in the win over Seattle. It is true that Kurt Warner and some other Cardinals have played in a Super Bowl, but collectively the Pitt edge in that category is too much to ignore. Another factor is that the public and bettors in Vegas are in love with the Cardinals; call it a Giants vs Patriots hangover if you will. You would all be amazed how many times we have heard something to the effect of "well the Giants won last year, the Cardinals can do it this year" in sportsbooks over the last two weeks, when the fact of the matter is that the game is not correlated, and if not for a once in a lifetime catch by Tyree the Giants would not have won last year. So, this rush to take the dog in Super Bowls is a bit of a knee jerk, and we will go with the better defense and more experienced team, and take the Steelers here. Numbers show that first time SB teams are just 5-11 ATS when taking on a team that has played in one, and should the line be Pitt -6.5 as it is in most places now (and probably will be at some points in the day Sunday, play smart!) note that SB favs of 3' to 6' points are 8-1 ATS.

As for the total, we do not look for the Steelers to light up the scoreboard, and the Cardinal offense is going to struggle against the staunch Steeler defnese. Also, neither team possesses a great return game, so that should not lead to any direct points off of special teams. As such, feel the line is higher than it should be, and we will accordingly take the Under, and in fact in our initial line the total was farther off the actual total than was the side. Numbers show that four straight SB's have gone Under the total, and that both teams are giving up less than 20ppg in the post season.

Our call on the final score is Pittsburgh 26, Arizona 17.

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 11:03 AM

Kelso added

5 units Rider -7.5

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 11:03 AM

Seabass Hoops

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA 100 Orlando

300 Portland St
50 Duke
30 St Joes
20 Rider

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 11:03 AM

Paul Leiner:

300* NFL Cardinals +7

300* NBA Over 201.5 Orl/Tor

300* CBB Over 131.5 Cincy/Nov

25* CBB Penn State +12.5

Mr. IWS

02-01-2009, 11:03 AM

Wunderdog

Super Bowl XLIII Prop Picks

FIRST QUARTER UNDER 9.5 (+105)

During the 2008 regular season, an average of 8.9 points per game where scored. In the history of the Super Bowl, the average is 8.5 points. And, eight of the last nine Super Bowls have seen less than 10 points scored in the first quarter, including last year when 3 points where scored in the first quarter. The magnitude of this game seems to grow year by year, and with what's at stake, the teams nearly always go through a feeling out process early. They are trying to figure out what they can accomplish versus their opponent, and they are trying avoid big mistakes. So the play calling, and the play on the field, are conservative. The question here, as it was last year, is whether we can count on a low-scoring start when we have a game with a fairly high total. Last year's total was set higher than this one, and as stated, 3 points were scored. Looking back to Super Bowl games with totals of 47 or higher, 11 of the 17 have played to first quarter totals of ten points or less. That's
65%. Pittsburgh games this year averaged 6.3 first quarter points while Arizona's averaged 7.8 per game. So, we have history on our side, and the numbers for these two particular teams back us up. Take the UNDER here.

OVERTIME = NO (-1100)

I know most people don't like laying 11 to win 1. And if you are one of the people who can't bear to do it, then lay off this. But for those of you that are simply seeking value, then read on because this bet is laden with value. The chances of a game reaching overtime are really simple to figure out. All we need to do is look at the past. As long as we have a large enough sample, and rules haven't changed in some signifcant way, then we can be fairly certain from a statistical standpoint that the best predictor of the future will be the past. This is the case here as NFL rules have not changd in a way that would affect the chance of a game going to overtime. I have done the math. This season, we had 15 overtime games out of 256 regular season games. That equates to a 5.9% chance. I have also looked at past seasons and guess what? The long-term average tells us that the chance of an overtime game is precisely 5.9%. So we have a stat here that we can rely on. Well, what kind of moneyline does this equate to? At a 5.9% chance, the true and fair odds on this bet would be +1595 for "yes" and -1595 for "no". Here's where the value lies. The sportsbooks know that the public loves to risk a little to win a lot and so they shade the odds here. Instead of offering +1595 for "yes," they offer a horrible +650 (sportsbook.com). And on the flipside, we can grab the "no" at a huge relative value of -1100 (again at sportsbook.com). The true and fair chance of an event occurring at odds of -1100 is 84.2%. So, we are getting odds as if the chance of winning is 84% when in fact we know the chance of winning is really 94%! That my friends is called a massive overlay and I'm on it.