1-30-09

[Mr. IWS]

JEFFERSON-SPORTS EARLY RELEASE 2-1 yest


NBA EARLY PLAY
CHICAGO BULLS-2

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Hornets - Friday January 30, 2009 9:35 pm
Detail: IC Friday Night NBA Fun
Pick: 4 units (Normal) ATS: Golden State Warriors +9 (-110)

4 Unit Play. #869. Take Golden State Warriors (+9) over New Orleans Hornets (Friday @ 9:35pm est). There is no reason not to back the Warriors here. This team comes off an ugly, ugly thumping at Dallas and will undoubtedly look to bounce-back here. What has gotten overlooked form that game was the fact that Dallas was coming off an embarrassing loss to Boston in the game before and undoubtedly was just looking forward to getting to on the court after such a terrible effort. Well, I look for the Warriors to have that same sense of urgency today at New Orleans. Look, this NO team is going to struggle without Chandler and still does not know if West (who is an All-star reserve this year) will be able to suit up. On top of that, don't forget Ellis is back for the Warriors, tack on Jackson, Azu, C-Mag, Crawford and Watson – this team should be more than game today. Just like any other game, look for the Warriors to wheel and deal and consequently to be competitive in this game. Make no mistake, this team as well as Don Nelson has a lot of pride and note, that haven't had back to back ATS losses in quite some time. Remember, NO beat this team by 5 points earlier this year on the road back in October so this is a revenge game as well. NO is the same team that lost to NY at home when the Knicks had revenge, they come off a huge win over Denver and I can see them getting upset at home today in a let down while the Warriors are itching to play after getting embarrassed in their last contest. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS after a SU loss and the Hornets are 3-10 ATS following a SU win.

Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Pennsylvania Quakers @ Harvard Crimson - Friday January 30, 2009 7:00 pm
Pick: 4 units (Play of the Day) ATS: Pennsylvania Quakers +6 (-110)

Yes, we are +26 Units in the month of January in college ball, and we wee 10-1-1 over the last 12 plays but we've hit a little bit of a speed bump in college - ironically, we picked even more steam in the NBA as the total units still remain the same at +61 for January in Hoops. Let's get back on track here will continuing to surge in the NBA for winning week #6 in a row which is within reach today. As per this game, I love the Ivy. I have been tracking Ivy League basketball for quite some time and the dogs are typically very strong in the Ivy. In particular, it is an even stronger play on Friday nights when there are fewer games on the card. Typically, the betting novice just rides the team with a better record and calls it a day on Friday nights and typically gets burned. Well, that will not be the case with us. Folks, I have Penn as the better team. Now, you might think, but wait, Penn is just 4-10. Sure - but have you looked to see who those losses were to? In fact, did you know that Penn has yet to play a conference game? This team has been slowly building up its program by indeed playing some much better teams in order to get even more funds. This team has played the likes of North Carolina, Penn State (Big 10), Villanova, Central Florida, Temple, La Salle and St. Josephs. This team comes off a 12 point loss to St. Josephs at home but I believe they will be very game on the road in the start of conference play. Heck, out of the 14 games that Penn has played so far, this team has only played 2 teams outside the top 300 and they beat both of them. In fact, Penn has yet to lose to any team ranked outside the top 200 for that matter and guess what Harvard is? You guessed it -they are a team outside the top 230 in the power rankings. Tack on the fact that Penn has revenge, has played a tougher non-conference schedule, the majority of the public riding the home favorite here and Penn having yet to lose to any team outside the top 200, I believe our team likely loses by free throws late or has a shot at outright. Remember, Harvard nearly lost to Dartmouth on the road and did lose to Dartmouth at home and considering that Dartmouth is a team outside the top 300 this is a bit surprising. Look for Penn to get inside the number today. The Quakers are 5-0 ATS after an ATS loss and the Crimson are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Ivy League games.

[Mr. IWS]

Bryan Leonard's GOY

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Leonards NBA GOY - Celtics -6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Winning Angle Plays for Friday

NBA

Play Boston (-6.5) over Detroit* (NBA Game of Year)

Boston has won 9 consecutive games and they have also won 22 of the last 25 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Boston has won 10 of the last 11 games when playing their 2nd game in a week and they are averaging over 107 points a game over the last 5 games.


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NCAA Hoops

Play Butler (-17.5) over Valparaiso* (NCAA Bonus Play)



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NHL

Play Columbus (-160) over Ottawa (NHL Bonus Play)

[Mr. IWS]

Accu Picks 5* NBA GOY:
5* CLEV
4* NJN
3* OKL CITY

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Sports Club
January 30, 2009

NBA Side Winners:

Boston Celtics -6
LA Lakers -6

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

NBA Basketball
Wizards +10 over Sixers

NCAA Basketball
Valparaiso +17 over Butler

[Mr. IWS]

Andre Gomes

All 1*

Lakers -6
Milwaukee under 199
Warriors +9.5
Chicago pk

[Mr. IWS]

Matty O'Shea | NBA Sides Single-Dime Bet

854 TOR -7.5 (-110) BetUS vs 853 MIL

Analysis: The Bucks have been outscored by an average of 16 points during a four-game road losing streak and are still adjusting to life without leading scorer Michael Redd, who is out for the season with a knee injury. Milwaukee has also lost four of the last five meetings at Toronto, losing the last two by a a combined 49 points. The Raptors have been playing much better lately and need to in order to make a push for the playoffs. Their last three wins have been decided by an average of more than 12 points, and I expect another double-digit victory here. Bet Toronto as my Single Dime NBA Play O' the Day.

[Mr. IWS]

igz1 sports

Friday Action !!
Thursday Recap: 1-1 NHL (-16 pts) : 2-3 CBB (-115 pts)

CBB
3* Butler -17 (-110)

NBA
4* Oklahoma City +10 (-110)
3* Boston -5.5 (-110)
3* Miami +3.5 (-110)
3* Lakers -6.5 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner:

500* NBA Over 181 Bos/Det

25* CBB Penn +5.5

10* CBB Over 121.5 Valpo/Butler

[Mr. IWS]

JACK JONES


Take Indiana Pacers -3 over Miami Heat
I'll take the Pacers, who are 4-0 straight up against the Heat in the last 4 meetings between these two team in Indiana. The Pacers are on a 4-0 ATS run as a favorite and they've won 5-0 straight against the number on their home court. Indy has won 5 of their last 6 against the spread against Eastern Conference opponents, and they are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 overall. I'm jumping on them, hopefully before they start to cool off. The Heat, on the other hand, are just 3-7-2 after a win of 10+ points, and they are just 13-31-3 ATS after a win in their past 47 contests. Give the points for the home team tonight.


Take Marist +6.5 over Fairfield
Marist has 4 straight ATS wins at Fairfield and they've managed to cover the spread in 7 of the last 9 meetings overall. Neither team has played all that well this season, but the Stags have been particularly bad at home, not at winning (6-2 this year), but at covering the spread (1-5 ATS at home). Marist has a pretty significant advantage at shooting the three-point ball, and that could be the difference between a win and a loss for them tonight. Either way, these are two teams that are evenly matched and there is no way that Fairfield's home court advantage is 6-7 points, it's more like 3, if that.

[Mr. IWS]

DR Bob

NO BEST BETS TONIGHT

Friday NBA Opinion
Oklahoma City (+10) over UTAH
Oklahoma City is now 22-7 ATS since Russell Westbrook joined the starting lineup at point guard and that includes a perfect 12-0 ATS mark as a dog of more than 7 points. The Thunder are certainly capable of hanging with a Jazz club that is actually worse than average without Andrei Kirilenko, whose defense is irreplaceable. The Thunder beat up on the Jazz 114-93 just 2 weeks ago at home and I'll call for them to keep this close despite the revenge motive for the Jazz. The only issue I have with this game is the loss of Desmond Mason for the Thunder, as Mason is an underrated player and will be missed more than anticipated. I'll lean with Oklahoma City plus the points

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass steam play la clippers + 15

[Mr. IWS]

Matty O'Shea | NBA Sides Single-Dime Bet

854 TOR -7.5 (-110) BetUS vs 853 MIL

Analysis: The Bucks have been outscored by an average of 16 points during a four-game road losing streak and are still adjusting to life without leading scorer Michael Redd, who is out for the season with a knee injury. Milwaukee has also lost four of the last five meetings at Toronto, losing the last two by a a combined 49 points. The Raptors have been playing much better lately and need to in order to make a push for the playoffs. Their last three wins have been decided by an average of more than 12 points, and I expect another double-digit victory here. Bet Toronto as my Single Dime NBA Play O' the Day.

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan

Valparaiso Crusaders @ Butler Bulldogs
Pick: Valparaiso Crusaders +17.5

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Valparaiso as they travel to face Butler slated to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that VALPO will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 41-19 ATS for 68% since 2003. Play against any team that is a good 3PT shooting team hitting >=36.5% facing an average 3PT defense allowing 32-36.5% after 15+ games and after 4 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 40% or less. Butler is 18-1 and they have done it with a methodical prodding offense and stifling defense. However, VALPO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game since 1997. Because of the slow tempo this game will take on rebounds will be below average for VALPO. AiS shows an 88% probability that Valpo will have between 34 and 39 rebounds and in past games where this has occurred Valpo is a solid 19-7 ATS since 1997.


Lakers at Minnesota

Lakers by 7 points based on Ai Simulator estimate.

I have been running very hot of late with 10 and 15* graded plays and this one will be a 5* graded Monster play on the Lakers. Minnesota has played exceptional team basketball in January. They have won 5 of the last 6 and three of them have been on the road against Phoenix, the LA Clippers, and Milwaukee. Entering Wednesday night they will be a pick-em hosting Detroit, a team that is 5 games over 500. I point this out only to show that the public is beginning to back Minnesota in a big way given that the winning ways have been evident for more than a month. They are 11-2 in January and that is amazing.

Enter the best team in the NBA, based on my research and opinion, in the Lakers on Thursday night. The Lakers normally may be prone to taking Minnesota lightly, but given how well Minnesota has played in January they will be prepared and focused to win this game. Reality is that Minnesota is no where close to being just a 5 point dog to these powerful Lakers. The Lakers bench might be able to defeat the Minnesota starters on any given night. The Lakers, when prepared, do not turn the ball over, giving the opposition easy transition opportunities. AiS shows an 856% probability that the Lakers will have 12 or fewer turnovers. Note that Minnesota is just 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games in games where they force 12 or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota has run and up tempo style of offense during the winning month, but the Lakers thrive against these one dimensional teams. The Lakers are the only NBA team that can flip a switch and the lock down defense is applied and suffocates an offense that may have been clicking on all cylinders just minutes ago. I will have more detail about this game later this week so be sure to get my podcast for Friday that will further examine this strong opportunity. Lakers are 25-12 ATS against teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the past 2 seasons.
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[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence

College Hoops Fan Appreciation Play

Brown vs Cornell
Play: Brown +11.5

The Bruins battle Big Red with double revenge on their minds from last season in a game that sets up beautifully for the Brownies. That's because they enter off a 2-point loss while Cornell checks in off a pair of double-digit wins over Columbia. Meanwhile, Brown is 10-2 ATS when playing with double revenge losses from the previous season against fellow Ivy League foes, including 7-0 ATS the last seven games. With that, look for the Bruins to improve to 7-1 ATS on this floor when playing with 3 or more days of rest. Grab the points with Brown.
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[Mr. IWS]

Brian Gabrielle

Boston at Detroit
Play: Boston -6

Lay the points with the road team in this matchup.

You see, the Pistons do not play well against the Celtics. In fact, Boston has won 8 of the last 11 in this series, including 4 of the last 5 here at the Palace and they have dominated both games this season, winning by an average margin of 15 ppg.That's real consistant with Boston's lastest surge, as the Celtics have won 9 straight and done so by an average margin of victory of over 16 points per game.

Boston 98, Detroit 83

Take Boston as my NBA Game of the Week

[Mr. IWS]

NSA's Selection
20* New Jersey +7.5
10* Oklahoma City +10
10* Boston -5.5
10* Sacramento +2
10* Cleveland -15.5
10* Yale +2

[Mr. IWS]

seabass

30 harvard
30 yale
30 butler

50 nets
50 cleve over

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp | NBA Sides Double-Dime Bet
871 CHI -1.0 (-110) BetUS vs 872 SAC
Analysis: Stan is Betting CHICAGO today. Stan notes that CHICAGO catches Sacramento returning home from a long East Coast Road and Chicago is coming off a win over the Clippers in their last game. Chicago should continue the winning streak tonight against a struggling Sacramento team. Stan has Chicago Winning by 6-9 points. TAKE CHICAGO as STAN SHARP'S FRIDAY NIGHT BIG BET and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.