2-6-09

[Mr. IWS]

::moneybag::

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer 25* Celtics

[Mr. IWS]

Burns NBA

UNDER oklahoma city/portland

Game: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Game Time: 2/6/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Portland and Oklahoma City to finish UNDER the total. Recent results have most expecting a shootout and have provided us with excellent value. It's true that the Thunder come off back to back to back high-scoring games. However, a closer look shows that those games came against Denver and Sacramento. The Nuggets have one of the best offenses in the league and a defense that ranks below the league average. The Kings give up the second most points in the league, only the Warriors allow more. In other words, both those teams tend to play a lot of high-scoring games. Tonight, however, the Thunder will face a much better defensive team. The Blazers did uncharacteristically give up 104 at Dallas last time out. However, in their defense, they held the Hornets to 89 points in their previous game and they limited Charlotte to a mere 74 points, less than a week ago. Overall, the Blazers are allowing 94.8 points per game, the eighth best mark in the league. While these teams have yet to play each other this season, the Blazers have seen the UNDER go 5-2 when matched up against divisional opponents this season. Those games averaged 193.3 points, just slightly more than the 192.2 combined points which their road games have produced for the season. Like most teams, the Thunder play better defense at home. However, unlike most teams, they've scored fewer points here at home than they do on the road. That's led to 15 of their 26 home games finishing below the number, with those games averaging 196.9 points. That includes the UNDER producing a 5-1 mark when the Thunder have been listed as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. The UNDER was 6-1 the last seven games between the Sonics and the Blazers and I look for the first game between the Blazers and Thunder to also produce fewer points than most are expecting. *Blue Chip
LA CLIPPERS

Game: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies Game Time: 2/6/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers Reason: I'm taking the points with the LA CLIPPERS. Very few will are willing to back the Clippers right now meaning that the majority of the betting public will be playing the Grizzlies in this one. That's given us excellent value with what figures to be a highly motivated visitor. Why would I expect the Clippers be "motivated?" For starters, they're looking to avenge a loss suffered here earlier this season. More importantly, they'd desperately like to snap their lengthy losing streak and they know that this game offers their best chance to do so. Yes, the Grizzlies have been more competitive since Hollins took over and are coming off back to back victories. They didn't suddenly become a "good" team overnight though and they're just 1-4 SU/ATS the last five times that were listed as home favorites in the +3.5 to +6 range. While the Clippers, who have been plagued by injuries, are slowly getting healthier, the Grizzlies are expected to be without Lowry, the team leader in assists. With the Grizzlies scheduled to play at Toronto tomorrow night, its worth noting that they're 0-4 SU/ATS the last four times that they played the front end of back to back games. Look for the Clippers to give their hosts all that they can handle here with the Grizzlies falling to 8-16-1 ATS the last 25 times that they were coming off a double-digit victory. *Annihilator
PACERS

Game: Orlando Magic vs. Indiana Pacers Game Time: 2/6/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Indiana Pacers Reason: I'm taking the points with INDIANA. We're getting some extra line value on the Pacers here due to the fact that they played yesterday, while the Magic had the day off. Playing the second of back to back games can be difficult. However, in this case, the back to back situation isn't likely to be as big a factor as it can be, at times. That's because this will still be just Indiana's third game through the first six days of February. On the other hand, even though they had yesterday off, the Magic will be playing their fourth game already this month. Additionally, note that the Pacers have played four home games, after having played the previous day, so far this season. They won three of those games outright (won by 31 combined points) and lost the other one by single-digits. Fighting to get back in the playoff race and playing with "triple revenge," the Pacers, who catch the Magic still adjusting to life without Jameer Neslson, should be extremely motivated. While they have yet to defeat Orlando, the Pacers have been at their best against the league's elite teams this season, having gone 15-9 ATS against teams with a winning record. Note that while the Pacers were blown out in the two games at Orlando, the game here at Indiana was decided by just two points, in overtime. Looking back further and we find that the Pacers are 13-7 the last 20 times that they hosted the Magic and that only one of the seven losses was by greater than six points, which was way back in 2003. Additionally, note that the Pacers are a profitable 18-10 ATS when playing with "revenge" this season. It's true that the Magic have been excellent on the road. However, the Pacers have already defeated both the Lakers and the Celtics on this floor this season and I feel that they're fully capable of delivering another upset tonight. *Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

Burns NCAA

SOUTH FLORIDA

Game: Marquette vs. South Florida Game Time: 2/6/2009 7:00:00 PM Prediction: South Florida Reason: I'm taking the points with SOUTH FLORIDA. Marquette has been playing well and brings an impressive winning streak to the table. However, with each victory, the lines on the Golden Eagles begin to climb higher and higher. I feel that they've now climbed too high and that the value for tonight's game lies with the home underdog Bulls. The Golden Eagles did cover at Depaul last time out, winning by 15. However, Depaul is the worst team in the conference and the Bulls are a much stronger opponent. Indeed, South Florida is 2-0 against Depaul this season, winning by a combined 31 points. Yet, Marquette is laying nearly as many points tonight as it was against Depaul. Note that prior to the victory at Depaul, the Golden Eagles had gone 4-2 in their previous six games away from home, with none of the four victories coming by greater than nine points. Off their big win, playing the second of three straight road games, and with Villanova on deck, I won't be surprised if the Golden Eagles are somewhat flat tonight. The Bulls haven't had much "SU" success against the top teams in the Big East yet this season. However, they've come close on more than one occasion. They lost by five vs. Syracuse (ranked #13 at the time) and by nine vs. Villanova. They also lost by only three at West Virginia. The Bulls have played Marquette tough the last couple of seasons. In 2007, at Marquette, they lost by eight points, as 14 point underdogs. Last year, here at South Florida, the Bulls lost by only two. Not surprisingly, USF covered the spread in both those games. While I know that it will take a huge effort, I feel that this is a good spot and won't even be surprised if the Bulls, who are allowing a mere 57.2 points per game at home, score the outright upset and provide coach Stan Heath with his "signature win, in his first two seasons here at USF. That said, I'll take all the points that I can get and look for the Bulls to again hang within the inflated number. *Feast

[Mr. IWS]

Gavazzi/ppp

4 orl
3 memp
jazz

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer
NBA ko game of the month
Portland

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

Friday NBA Opinions
L.A. Clippers (+4 ½) over MEMPHIS
The Clippers shouldn’t be as bad now that they have Zach Randolph and Marcus Camby back in the lineup, but they’ve still been blownout in their last few games. However, Memphis is a team that they should be able to compete with and the Clippers apply to a solid 68-25 ATS situation that plays on teams on long losing streaks. My ratings favor Memphis by just 3 ½ points and I’ll lean with the Clippers at +4 points or more.

Portland (-6) over OKLAHOMA CITY
Portland applies to a very strong 49-2-3 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation tonight and my ratings favor the Blazers by 6 points, but Oklahoma City has covered the spread in 12 of their last 13 home games and 10 straight as a home dog. I’ll still lean with the Blazers based on the very strong situation.

Friday College Opinion
St. Peter’s (+16 ½) over NIAGARA
Rotation #879 – 4 pm Pacific
St Peter’s is 8-1-1 ATS since the beginning of 2009 and the Peacocks tend to play their best on the road under coach John Dunne (20-11 ATS, including 5-0 recently). Niagara is an inconsistent team that is coming off a couple of impressive road wins, but the Purple Eagles are just 1-15 ATS at home off consecutive conference wins and only 9-17 ATS as a double-digit home favorite. My ratings favor Niagara by 16 ½ points, but using conference games only yields a fair price of just 13 points and I’ll lean with St. Peter’s at +16 or more.

[Mr. IWS]

spritzer
celtics
warriors
cornel