02-07-2009, 10:30 AM
Burns NCAA
UNDER UCLA/Notre Dame
Game: Notre Dame vs. UCLA Game Time: 2/7/2009 1:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on UCLA and Notre Dame to finish UNDER the total. Recent results have given us an extremely generous over/under number here, one which I feel is too high. Yes, the Bruins have seen several consecutive games finish above the number. However, none had a total nearly this high. Their last game, which was vs. USC on 2/4, finished above the total. However, that total was just 130.5 and the teams finished with 136 points. In fact, if we look back at UCLA's last 20 games, we find that NONE of them had an over/under line greater than 144. Granted, the Irish have been playing in some high-scoring games recently. However, this is even a high total for them, as their last two games both had over/under lines in the mid 140s. While the Irish are certainly capable of putting up a lot of points, they've also been limited to less than 65 points in two of their last four games. They'll face a tough UCLA defense this afternoon. Always known for their defense prowess, the Bruins have held seven of their last eight opponents to 66 points or less and they're allowing only 58.7 points per game at home for the season. These teams have played each other three times since 1995. Those games finished with 141, 135 and 140 points. Overall, UCLA has seen the UNDER go 11-4 its last 15 games against teams from the Big East. During the same stretch, Notre Dame has seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 vs. teams from the Pac-10. Look for this afternoon's game to prove lower-scoring than most are expecting once again, with the UNDER improving to 60-40 the last 100 UCLA non-conference games which had a total. *Blue Chip
DUQUESNE
Game: Xavier vs. Duquesne Game Time: 2/7/2009 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Duquesne Reason: I'm taking the points with DUQUESNE. Yesterday, I successfully played against Marquette. The Golden Eagles were red hot and had an undefeated record in conference play. Yet, the lightly regarded South Florida Bulls proved to "want it more," and earned the outright upset. I felt that Marquette might become a little complacent and overlook the Bulls and I feel that the same thing may happen with "red hot" Xavier here. While I respect the Musketeers, with every successive victory, they are being asked to lay larger and larger pointspreads. Like Butler recently and Marquette yesterday, I feel that the Musketeers have become over-valued. Like South Florida yesterday, I believe that Duquesne is somewhat underrated. Like the Bulls, the Dukes have a hungry coach, still relatively new (Ron Everhart is in his third year here) with the program, looking for a "signature win." With the best team in the conference coming to town, I feel that Everhart's Dukes will be highly motivated to bring their "A Game." The Dukes are 9-3 their last 12 games. All three losses were by single-digits and two of them came in overtime. The Dukes, who are averaging greater than 83 points per game in conference play, were 13 point underdogs the last time that they hosted the Musketeers (1/31/07) and they scored the outright upset. While I believe that the Dukes, 2-0 ATS off a conference loss, have an excellent shot at another upset here, I also feel that the line is too high and therefore will grab the generous points with the undervalued home underdog. *A-10 GOY
GONZAGA
Game: Memphis vs. Gonzaga Game Time: 2/7/2009 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Gonzaga Reason: I'm laying the points with GONZAGA. These teams are both red hot and both are perfect in their respective conferences. Both teams would love a victory against a "big name" non-conference opponent here in order to keep their winning streak alive and to improve their seeding in conference play. While the Tigers have the higher seed, I feel that Gonzaga will prove to be the stronger team today, particularly with the game being played at Spokane. With all due respect to the Tigers, who are playing very well again this season, Memphis lost an awful lost of talent from last year's team. On the other hand, this is arguably Gonzaga's most talented team ever - and that's saying an awful lot. While the Tigers are 7-9 ATS in February the past couple of years, the Bulldogs have fared well at this time of year, going 11-5 ATS in February. The Bulldogs rarely get to face a top tier non-conference team like this up here in the Pacific Northwest and they'll definitely want to make the most of the opportunity. They lost by a point in overtime to the Tigers here two years ago and lost at Memphis vs. the #1 Tigers last season, the first time in school history that the Tigers got to play on their own court as the top-ranked team. Look for the Bulldogs to make a statement and avenge those losses in convincing fashion. *Personal Favorite
GEORGETOWN
Game: Cincinnati vs. Georgetown Game Time: 2/7/2009 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Georgetown Reason: I'm laying the points with GEORGETOWN. Recent results have given us a very reasonable number on what is now an undervalued Georgetown squad. The Hoyas are now 0-5 ATS their last five games. Last time out, they won by 10 vs. Rutgers, but failed to cover. That snapped a 5-game winless streak and I expect them to build some positive momentum from it. The fact that the Bearcats upset them 65-57 when the teams met at Cincinnati last month, should provide added incentive to deliver a blowout and keep the "pedal to the metal" the entire way. The Bearcats, who won vs. Notre Dame last time out, are just 5-9 ATS the last 14 times that they were coming off a victory over a conference opponent. That victory notwithstanding, Cincinati is certainly susceptible to getting blown out. Including a 71-50 blowout loss on February 1st, their most recent road game, the Bearcats are now an ugly 0-5 ATS the last five times that they were underdogs of greater than eight points. The Bearcats were getting between +8.5 and +11.5 points for all five of those games, yet the losses came by an average of 24.8 points. Last year's meeting here resulted in a 73-53 blowout win for Georgetown. That followed 15 and 19 point Georgetown victories over the Bearcats here in 2006 and 2007. I expect another double-digit victory this afternoon.
OREGON
Game: Arizona vs. Oregon Game Time: 2/7/2009 3:30:00 PM Prediction: Oregon Reason: I'm taking the points with OREGON. The Wildcats managed to win at Oregon State last time out. However, that win came by only three points and they're still just 1-6 on the road for the season. I feel that the recent home wins over Washington and Washington State have caused the Wildcats to be somewhat over-valued and I fully expect them to have their hands full against what should be an extremely motivated Oregon squad, which will be looking to avoid matching its longest losing streak in more than 50 years. Note that the Wildcats, now 4-11 ATS their last 15 games played in February, are just 9-15 ATS the last 24 times that they were coming off a win over a conference opponent in their previous game. While they lost again, the Ducks played a very strong Arizona State squad reasonably tough, as they traded leads with the Sun Devils 10 times in that game. Their previous two games resulted in losses of three and seven points, with the Ducks covering the spread in each, so it's not like they haven't been competitive. The Ducks are back on the road after this game and they know that this will be one of their last good chances to provide the home fans with a conference victory. While their Pac-10 play has certainly been disappointing, keep in mind that Oregon did beat the likes of Kansas State and Alabama in non-conference action, crushing the Tide by a score of 92-69. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss at Arizona, I look for the Ducks to play with desperation, finally putting together a complete game and earning their first victory in Pac-10 play. *Best Bet
UNDER UCLA/Notre Dame
Game: Notre Dame vs. UCLA Game Time: 2/7/2009 1:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on UCLA and Notre Dame to finish UNDER the total. Recent results have given us an extremely generous over/under number here, one which I feel is too high. Yes, the Bruins have seen several consecutive games finish above the number. However, none had a total nearly this high. Their last game, which was vs. USC on 2/4, finished above the total. However, that total was just 130.5 and the teams finished with 136 points. In fact, if we look back at UCLA's last 20 games, we find that NONE of them had an over/under line greater than 144. Granted, the Irish have been playing in some high-scoring games recently. However, this is even a high total for them, as their last two games both had over/under lines in the mid 140s. While the Irish are certainly capable of putting up a lot of points, they've also been limited to less than 65 points in two of their last four games. They'll face a tough UCLA defense this afternoon. Always known for their defense prowess, the Bruins have held seven of their last eight opponents to 66 points or less and they're allowing only 58.7 points per game at home for the season. These teams have played each other three times since 1995. Those games finished with 141, 135 and 140 points. Overall, UCLA has seen the UNDER go 11-4 its last 15 games against teams from the Big East. During the same stretch, Notre Dame has seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 vs. teams from the Pac-10. Look for this afternoon's game to prove lower-scoring than most are expecting once again, with the UNDER improving to 60-40 the last 100 UCLA non-conference games which had a total. *Blue Chip
DUQUESNE
Game: Xavier vs. Duquesne Game Time: 2/7/2009 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Duquesne Reason: I'm taking the points with DUQUESNE. Yesterday, I successfully played against Marquette. The Golden Eagles were red hot and had an undefeated record in conference play. Yet, the lightly regarded South Florida Bulls proved to "want it more," and earned the outright upset. I felt that Marquette might become a little complacent and overlook the Bulls and I feel that the same thing may happen with "red hot" Xavier here. While I respect the Musketeers, with every successive victory, they are being asked to lay larger and larger pointspreads. Like Butler recently and Marquette yesterday, I feel that the Musketeers have become over-valued. Like South Florida yesterday, I believe that Duquesne is somewhat underrated. Like the Bulls, the Dukes have a hungry coach, still relatively new (Ron Everhart is in his third year here) with the program, looking for a "signature win." With the best team in the conference coming to town, I feel that Everhart's Dukes will be highly motivated to bring their "A Game." The Dukes are 9-3 their last 12 games. All three losses were by single-digits and two of them came in overtime. The Dukes, who are averaging greater than 83 points per game in conference play, were 13 point underdogs the last time that they hosted the Musketeers (1/31/07) and they scored the outright upset. While I believe that the Dukes, 2-0 ATS off a conference loss, have an excellent shot at another upset here, I also feel that the line is too high and therefore will grab the generous points with the undervalued home underdog. *A-10 GOY
GONZAGA
Game: Memphis vs. Gonzaga Game Time: 2/7/2009 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Gonzaga Reason: I'm laying the points with GONZAGA. These teams are both red hot and both are perfect in their respective conferences. Both teams would love a victory against a "big name" non-conference opponent here in order to keep their winning streak alive and to improve their seeding in conference play. While the Tigers have the higher seed, I feel that Gonzaga will prove to be the stronger team today, particularly with the game being played at Spokane. With all due respect to the Tigers, who are playing very well again this season, Memphis lost an awful lost of talent from last year's team. On the other hand, this is arguably Gonzaga's most talented team ever - and that's saying an awful lot. While the Tigers are 7-9 ATS in February the past couple of years, the Bulldogs have fared well at this time of year, going 11-5 ATS in February. The Bulldogs rarely get to face a top tier non-conference team like this up here in the Pacific Northwest and they'll definitely want to make the most of the opportunity. They lost by a point in overtime to the Tigers here two years ago and lost at Memphis vs. the #1 Tigers last season, the first time in school history that the Tigers got to play on their own court as the top-ranked team. Look for the Bulldogs to make a statement and avenge those losses in convincing fashion. *Personal Favorite
GEORGETOWN
Game: Cincinnati vs. Georgetown Game Time: 2/7/2009 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Georgetown Reason: I'm laying the points with GEORGETOWN. Recent results have given us a very reasonable number on what is now an undervalued Georgetown squad. The Hoyas are now 0-5 ATS their last five games. Last time out, they won by 10 vs. Rutgers, but failed to cover. That snapped a 5-game winless streak and I expect them to build some positive momentum from it. The fact that the Bearcats upset them 65-57 when the teams met at Cincinnati last month, should provide added incentive to deliver a blowout and keep the "pedal to the metal" the entire way. The Bearcats, who won vs. Notre Dame last time out, are just 5-9 ATS the last 14 times that they were coming off a victory over a conference opponent. That victory notwithstanding, Cincinati is certainly susceptible to getting blown out. Including a 71-50 blowout loss on February 1st, their most recent road game, the Bearcats are now an ugly 0-5 ATS the last five times that they were underdogs of greater than eight points. The Bearcats were getting between +8.5 and +11.5 points for all five of those games, yet the losses came by an average of 24.8 points. Last year's meeting here resulted in a 73-53 blowout win for Georgetown. That followed 15 and 19 point Georgetown victories over the Bearcats here in 2006 and 2007. I expect another double-digit victory this afternoon.
OREGON
Game: Arizona vs. Oregon Game Time: 2/7/2009 3:30:00 PM Prediction: Oregon Reason: I'm taking the points with OREGON. The Wildcats managed to win at Oregon State last time out. However, that win came by only three points and they're still just 1-6 on the road for the season. I feel that the recent home wins over Washington and Washington State have caused the Wildcats to be somewhat over-valued and I fully expect them to have their hands full against what should be an extremely motivated Oregon squad, which will be looking to avoid matching its longest losing streak in more than 50 years. Note that the Wildcats, now 4-11 ATS their last 15 games played in February, are just 9-15 ATS the last 24 times that they were coming off a win over a conference opponent in their previous game. While they lost again, the Ducks played a very strong Arizona State squad reasonably tough, as they traded leads with the Sun Devils 10 times in that game. Their previous two games resulted in losses of three and seven points, with the Ducks covering the spread in each, so it's not like they haven't been competitive. The Ducks are back on the road after this game and they know that this will be one of their last good chances to provide the home fans with a conference victory. While their Pac-10 play has certainly been disappointing, keep in mind that Oregon did beat the likes of Kansas State and Alabama in non-conference action, crushing the Tide by a score of 92-69. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss at Arizona, I look for the Ducks to play with desperation, finally putting together a complete game and earning their first victory in Pac-10 play. *Best Bet