2-10-09

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL

RED-HOT BIG AL's TUESDAY NIGHT 75-34 NBA SHOCKER!

New York Knicks vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: New York Knicks +4

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks plus the points over Golden State. The Warriors have been playing very well at home of late -- and we've been on them in several of those games (e.g., vs. Utah and San Antonio) -- but in all of the games we've played on the Warriors, they had been installed as the underdog. Now, Golden State is favored, and the Warriors are a dismal 5-9 ATS as a favorite this season. Frankly, I love fading bad teams as favorites. We went against Oklahoma City when it was favored by 7 vs. Sacramento on Sunday (and got the $$$ when the Thunder won by just three points), and also faded the Grizzlies on Friday when they were favored by 5 over the Clippers (and Memphis lost that game by 21). Now, let's fade the Warriors, as bad teams cannot be trusted to lay a lot of points, and Golden State also falls into a negative 34-75 ATS system of mine which fades certain home teams off upset wins. Tonight's opponent for the Warriors will be the Knicks. Although New York is in the midst of a four-game losing streak, three of its losses were to the Lakers, Cleveland and Boston (the league's three best teams), and the fourth was a 1-point road loss to the Trail Blazers (another strong club), so the Knicks can be excused for that. However, right before this four-game losing skid, New York had won six of seven, and those games were against teams much like these Warriors. The Knicks have a lot of players who are stepping up right now: Al Harrington is averaging 28 ppg in his last five games, and David Lee has "double-doubles" in his last 14 games. Earlier this season, New York scored 138 points in a 13-point win over Golden State at Madison Square Garden, and I expect a similar victory tonight. Take the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer 25*- Kent State

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer 25*- Mavs

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Alyn Root

Chairman- Boston College
Millionaire- Kentucky
No Limit- Michigan
Billionaire- So Florida

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NBA

NETS

Game: San Antonio Spurs vs. New Jersey Nets Game Time: 2/10/2009 7:35:00 PM Prediction: New Jersey Nets Reason: I'm taking the points with NEW JERSEY. Everyone saw how impressive San Antonio looked over the weekend, going into Boston and knocking off the defending champs. The Spurs were determined to make a statement and they did just that. The Spurs have admittedly been playing well of late. However, with everyone now suddenly believing that the Spurs are a contender again, we're getting excellent line value with their opponent, a team which is also playing very well of late, only doing so much more "quietly." Yes, the Nets lost their last game. However, they were playing the second of back to back games, were without Vince Carter (currently probable for tonight's game) and it was a road game at Orlando. In their most recent home game, the Nets absolutely dismantled a quality Denver club, knocking off the Nuggets by a score 114-70. Overall, the Nets are 4-1 SU/ATS their last five games. The Spurs have been nothing "special" as favorites, going 15-16-2 ATS when laying points on the road. Even with the win over Boston, they're still a money-burning 6-11 ATS against teams from the Eastern Conference. Conversely, the Nets have gone a respectable 11-9 SU/ATS against teams from the West while going a profitable 21-16 ATS in the underdog role, including a 4-2 ATS mark their last six. One of New Jersey's pointspread victories came when these teams faced each other at San Antonio a few weeks ago. The Nets led that game at halftime and ended up losing by only three points. The Spurs, who play at Toronto tomorrow, are right in the middle of their annual road trip. Even though they didn't play yesterday, coming off their massive victory, I feel that it will be easy for them to suffer a letdown. Note that they're just 5-8-1 ATS the last 14 times that they played a road game, which was the front end of back to back games. Unlike their guests, this will be the Nets' final game before the All Star Break. Having played so well recently, they'd really like to play well here to erase the bad taste from the Orlando loss and take some positive momentum into the break. Note that the Nets are 5-2 ATS this season, after scoring 85 points or less and 10-5 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss. I expect them to bounce back with a huge effort, giving the Spurs all they can handle for the second time in less than a month. *Non-Conf. GOM
UNDER kings/mavs

Game: Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks Game Time: 2/10/2009 8:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Dallas and Sacramento to finish UNDER the total. The Kings admittedly don't play much defense and they're off a particularly poor defensive effort last time out. That's the reason for such a big total though, one which I feel is too high. This will be the third meeting between these teams this season. The first two games both finished well below the total with final combined scores of 197 and 178. They had over/under lines of 202 and 207. Tonight's total, which has already climbed from its opener, is significantly higher, giving us plenty of room to work with. The Mavericks come off a high-scoring 115-114 game against Chicago last time out. However, that score is deceiving as 35 points came in overtime. Without OT, which is unlikely to be a factor tonight, the game would have produced 194 points, which would have been well below the number. The Mavs previous game, vs. Utah, stayed beneath the total. Note that the Mavs have seen the UNDER go 8-5 after scoring 105 or more points and 9-4 after allowing 105 or more. While the Mavs should still be able to score plenty of points, their offense isn't explosive with the recent injury to Jason Terry. The Mavs' second leading scorer had scored at least 20 in five of his last six games before getting hurt Saturday. For the season, Terry is averaging 19.9 points per game. Note that he averaged 28.5 points per game in the two earlier meetings vs. the Kings, leading Dallas in scoring in both those games. Look for tonight's game to prove lower-scoring than most are expecting with the final combined score staying beneath the generous number and the UNDER improving to 19-7 when the Mavs have faced a team with a losing record. *blue chip
RAPTORS

Game: Toronto Raptors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game Time: 2/10/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Toronto Raptors Reason: I'm playing on TORONTO. Both teams are struggling and both could badly use a victory. The Raptors, who will likely still be without Chris Bosh, have lost six straight. The T-Wolves, who will be without Al Jefferson, have lost three straight. While Minnesota is playing at home, I feel that the Raptors are the more talented team and that the situation sets up nicely for them to snap their skid. Both teams had yesterday off. However, the T-Wolves played on Sunday while the Raptors last played on Saturday. Note that the T-Wolves also played on Saturday, making tonight their third game in the past four days. Sunday's loss was no ordinary one. In addition to losing Jefferson to injury, they blew a big lead, after leading the entire way, eventually falling by four at New Orleans. Even without losing your star player, that type of loss can be tough to bounce back from. While both players are critical to the success of their teams, I believe that Jefferson is even more important to the T-Wolves than Bosh is to the Raptors. Note that Bosh has 22.7 points and 9.5 rebounds per game this season while Jefferson is averaging 23.1 points and 11 rebounds. Jefferson's numbers have been even better than that recently, as he was averaging 26.9 points and 11.8 rebounds in his past 10 games. Assuming he doesn't play, the Raptors already have had a couple of games to adjust to playing without Bosh. That's not the case for Minnesota, as Jefferson wasn't hurt until the very end of Sunday's loss. Note that the T- Wolves are 0-3 SU/ATS the last three times that they were home underdogs of three points or less and a money-burning 6-11 SU/ATS their last 17 in that role. The one advantage which the T-Wolves have is that they're playing on their homecourt. However, a lot of players will point out that when on a losing streak, homecourt isn't necessarily always an advantage. The fans are typically restless and can be quick to turn on their team if things don't start off well. The Raptors have dominated the T-Wolves in recent years, going a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS. I expect them to continue that series dominance here as they step up and snap their skid, improving to 18-10 ATS (excluding pushes) the last three seasons, when having lost three or more consecutive games. *Personal Favorite

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NCAA

VILLANOVA

Game: Marquette vs. Villanova Game Time: 2/10/2009 7:30:00 PM Prediction: Villanova Reason: I'm laying the points with VILLANOVA. I played against Marquette in its last game. I felt that the Golden Eagles were somewhat overvalued and they ended up losing outright at South Florida. While there was probably some looking ahead to this game, losing to the Bulls shows that the Golden Eagles are more vulnerable than most people had previously thought. Tonight, the Golden Eagles will be playing their third straight road game and it comes at an extremely difficult venue. Indeed, while they're 12-1 at home on the year, the Wildcats bring a 25-game winning streak at the Pavilion?X their on-campus arena ?X into tonight's game. The Wildcats have had no problem beating top tier Big East teams here either. Last time out, they crushed #20 Syracuse by a score of 102-85. Prior to that, they had also beaten then-No. 3 Pittsburgh by double-digits. With Saturday's win, the Wildcats are now 6-0 ATS (5-1 SU) the last six times that they faced a team with a winning record, after 15 or more games. Despite failing to score even 60 at South Florida, the Golden Eagles are still averaging a healthy 80.3 points per game. However, the Wildcats, who allow only 59.5 points per game at home, are a profitable 5-1 ATS when facing teams which score 77 or more points per game. The Wildcats are also 16-9 ATS the last 25 times that they were coming off a victory over a conference opponent. With payback on their minds, look for the Wildcats to keep on rolling for another day, as Marquette falls to 2-5 ATS (1-6 SU) the last seven times that it was an underdog in the +3.5 to +6 range. *Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 7* Conference Showdown-CBB

One only need to check the latest AP poll (released Monday) to realize that its a "down year" for the SEC in 2008-09. Not a single SEC team is represented. Both Kentucky and Florida have been in the top-25 this year but no longer. I'm not 'sold' on either team being much of an NCAA 'threat' this year but I'm siding with Kentucky in this game, as I believe this is a "must win" for the Wildcats. Kentucky reached the top-25 by winning 11 of 12 games (lone loss was on a buzzer-beating three-pointer by Louisville) but promptly dropped out of the rankings with three straight losses. The first came 85-80 at Ole Miss and then came a 78-77 home loss to South Carolina. The team's third straight loss was downright 'ugly,' as the 'Cats never led (trailed by as many as 16) in a 66-57 home loss to Miss St on Feb 3. The good news for Billy Gillispie's team is that Kentucky hasn't played since and has had an entire week to prepare for Florida and to "fix what is wrong!" Meeks (25.1) and the 6-9 Patterson (18.3-9.2) carry the scoring load but the 'Cats have some solid frontcourt depth, which is important against Florida. The 6-9 Stevenson (7.9-6.7) is having a decent season and is joined by the 6-7 Harris (5.3-3.0), the 6-10 Harrellson (4.7-3.2) and the 6-7 Miller (4.2-3.4). Liggins (6.0-2.9-3.3) and Porter (3.5) join Meeks in the backcourt. Florida has a pretty nice roster but I feel the whole is NOT greater than the sum of its parts. The 6-6 Calathes (18.1-5.3-6.4) is a wonderful player and the guard combo of 5-8 freshman Walker (9.3) and senior Hodge (7.7), "ain't bad." The Gators are 'loaded' up front with the 6-8 Tyus (12.4-6.2), the 6-9 Parsons (10.4-5.9) and the 6-8 Warner (9.2-4.4) plus 6-10 freshman Kadji (5.0-2.6) and 6-5 freshman Shipman (4.0-2.3). Florida leads a tight SEC East division with a 6-2 mark, with South Carolina at 6-3, then Kentucky and Tennessee at 5-3. However, the Gators haven't been away from home much since Christmas (just four games), going 2-2. In their last road outing, they got hammered at Tennessee, losing 79-63. They could suffer a similar fate here. Meeks has to be considered the frontrunner for SEC player-of-the-year and is due for a big-time scoring effort. As Rod Stewart sang, "Tonight's the night."

SEC Showdown on Kentucky


Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CBB

Clemson has a recent history of falling apart after fast starts. The team opened 16-0 TY and while the team's fall has not been as dramatic as in years past, the Tigers are just 3-3 since. A 'danger sign' may be Saturday's 65-661 loss to Florida State. It came three days after the Tigers had routed then-No. 4 Duke 74-47 at home, as the Tigers blew a 19-point second-half lead (ouch!). The 6-5 Rivers (14.2-6.2) is joined on the perimeter by guards Oglesby (13.0) and Stitt (8.0), while the 6-7 Booker (14.9-5.0) and the 6-9 Sykes (8,2-5.0) start in the frontcourt,. Depth is good with guards Young and Smith (combined 7.5 PPG) and forwards Potter and Grant (10.4 PPG and 5.8 RPG, combined). As for BC, the Eagles moved to 13-2 on the season with their 85-78 upset on then-No. 1 North Carolina at Chapel Hill on Jan 4. However, a four-game slide followed. BC has recovered though, as the Eagles had won five straight before losing 93-76 on Sunday at No. 7 Wake Forest. BC was outscored 47-29 in the second half after leading by one at the half but let's give them some slack, as the talented Demon Deacons were combining off an embarrassing 27-point loss at Miami-Fla. Rice (18.0-3.9-5.5) is arguably the best player in this game and he teams with two big guards, the 6-4 Sanders (12.0-4.2) and the 6-5 Raji (10.8-6.3) on BC's perimeter. That trio is more than a match for Clemson's trio. Inside, the 6-7 Trapani (13.9-6.8) and the 6-10 Southern (5.8-5.2) should hold their own with Booker and Sykes, although it's fair to say that Clemson has more depth. That said, I really like Al Skinner over Oliver Purnell on the sidelines and I'm still waiting for Clemson's typical late-season 'crash.' It just may have begun last Saturday. The Tigers dominated the Eagles in two games last year, as Clemson won 78-56 at home last February and beat Boston College 82-48 in the ACC tourney. However, LY's BC team was a 14-17 'mess' while TY's team is 18-7 (12-3 at home) and headed back to the "Big Dance." 'They' may call this an upset but I believe the Eagles are the better team in this situation.

Oddsmaker's Error on Boston College


Larry Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner: 7-1 run

Former TCU head coach Neil Dougherty spent six seasons in Fort Worth compiling a 75-108 record with just one winning season. Jim Christian, who went 138-58 in six years at Kent State, brought hope to TCU. The Horned Frogs opened 13-6 but will enter this game on a four-game losing streak, falling to 13-10 with five straight ATS losses. TCU's frontcourt is not bad, with the 6-7 Langford (14.1-4.9), the 6-9 Buljan (11.7-7.2) and the 6-6 Ruzgas (10.6). The backcourt features Moss (9.7), Ebie (5.9-3.9 APG) and Mitchem (5.5). TCU beat 80-73 UNLV in Fort Worth back on Jan 10, shooting 56.6 percent from the floor. The Horned Frogs cannot be expected to shoot that well again, as they are shooting 44.3 percent on the season as a team, while averaging a modest 65.0 PPG. UNLV won 30 and 27 games the last two years and enters this game 17-6, despite consecutive OT losses. The first came at home vs San Diego St and the second at New Mexico, 73-69. UNLV could really use a win here and I expect the Rebels will get just that. The 6-7 Darger (9.6-4.6) and the 6-8 Santee (6.5-3.0) don't quite match up with TCU's frontline but UNLV's perimeter game is vastly superior. Adams (14.0-4.3-3.1), Willis (11.1-3.7-3.3) and Bellfield (6.5-3.4 APG) form an excellent guard trio plus 6-6 swingman Rougeau (10.6-7.3) ranks right behind Adams as the team's MVP. UNLV finds itself in fifth-place among the 10 MWC teams and it's about time to "make a move." The good news is that the Rebels will once again host the MWC tourney but ****** knows he needs to get his team back on track after two straight OT setbacks. Lay the points.


Weekly Wipeout Winner on UNLV



Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider - NBA

The Warriors are happy to have Monta Ellis back and while he's only averaging 12.0 PPG through his first nine game, this guy averaged 20.2 PPG last season and it's just a matter of time. Golden St is just 4-5 in the nine games since his return but the Warriors are 6-2-1 ATS, which means he's making a difference where it 'counts!' However, Biedrins (13.0-11.8), who can be counted on for nightly double-doubles, is out with an ankle problem. Even with that, this Warrior team looks pretty good right now. Jackson (20.1-4.9-6.2) is having a terrific season, Crawford (19.0 PPG in his 35 games with GS) is settling in and Maggette (19.7-5.9) is healthy (for now). Azubuike (13.5-4.7) is nearly doubling his point production from his first two seasons (8.1), while guards CJ Watson (9.3) and rookie Morrow (8.4) have both been nice compliments plus center Turiaf (5.0-3.8) has brought some defensive intensity to a team which owns little of that. The Warriors average 106.8 PPG (2nd to only the Lakers) but allow a league-high 111.0 PPG, meaning this game with the Knicks, who average 104.3 PPG and allow 106.6, won't exactly be a defensive struggle. There wasn't much defense played when these teams met Nov 29 in MSG, as the Knicks won 138-125, in what remains the highest-scoring non-overtime game in the NBA this year. Former Warrior Al Harrington (21.2-6.3) had 36 points and 12 rebounds and David Lee (16.2-11.8) had 37 points and 21 rebounds in that contest. PG Chris Duhon (12.5-8.0 APG) set a New York franchise record with 22 assists in that game and along with Nate Robinson (15.0-3.5 APG), who's having a career-season, makes the Knicks 'go.' However. the Warriors didn't have Jackson in that earlier meeting and of course Ellis was still serving his suspension. This time around, both are set to go and as mentioned at the top, I like the way the Warriors have played lately. The Warriors have faced winning teams in each of their last seven games. They own wins over the Hornets, Suns and Jazz plus lost in OT to the Spurs during that span. The Knicks opened their three-game West Coast trip on Sunday in Portland, blowing a 13-point fourth-quarter lead and losing 109-108 on Brandon Roy's buzzer-beater. It won't get an easier tonight in Oakland, where they've lost their last six visits.

Las Vegas Insider GS Warriors

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al?


NBA
3 Knicks
1 Nuggets
1 Hawks

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

3 Tuesday Best Bets.
Rotation #705 Denver (-1) 2-Stars at -1 or better.
Rotation #727 Miami-Ohio (-7 1/2) 2-Stars at -8 or less.
Rotation #740 Wichita State (-6) 2-Stars at -7 or less.

[Mr. IWS]

PPP

4 miami ohio
4 kentucky
3 providence
3 texas
3 seton hall

4 cleveland
3 minnesota
3 oklahoma city