2-12-09

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness Thursday


Sun Belt GOY

Many felt at the beginning of the year that led by the 6-6 Yates (18.0-4.9), MTSU could take the Sun Belt this year, with Western Ky and South Alabama falling back. Yates has held up his end but the Blue Raiders enter this game 15-9 overall (8-4 in the SBC-East). While South Alabama has struggled (6-7 in SBC play), Western Ky is 11-2 and MTSU's opponent tonight, Troy, comes in at 15-10 overall and with a 10-3 league mark. Troy lost at Western Ky on Jan 1 (99-76) but is 10-1 since, including EIGHT straight wins. The Trojans attempted 957 three-pointers last year (30.9 per game) and while they've slowed down some, they are still averaging 24.1 three-point attempts per game TY. It's a guard-oriented team led by junior Hazzard (15.2 PPG up from 6.0 LY), Miss St transfer Delk (14.0-4.8) and junior Vogler (9.9-4.0-5.8), who all start. The 7-0 Jervis (6.6-6.7) start up front with 6-6 freshman Jones (4.5-3.0) but the 6-6 Telfair (6.8-4.0) and the 6-5 Ware (4.7-3.8) are also contributing in the frontcourt as well. Yates doesn't have much help inside, as the 6-5 Haddock (8.9-5.3) is part of a starting lineup that like Troy, features three guards. They are Green (11.9-4.0), Kanaskie (11.4-4.0) and Johnson (8.5-3.8-3.8). MTSU destroyed Troy back on Dec 11 in Murfreesboro 81-53, with Yates going for 27 points and 13 rebounds. However, this is a VERY different Trojans team now, as they'll enter on that eight-game winnings streak and with tons of confidence. The same can't be said for MTSU, which is 2-7 ATS in its last nine lined games and has lost FOUR straight on the SBC road (at Western Ky, Ark-LR, New Orleans and Denver). This game also marks the team's third straight road game, having lost at Denver last Thursday, before winning at Houston-Baptist on Saturday.


Sun Belt GOY on Troy.

NBA Perfect Storm- 1st TY

The Blazers made it SEVEN wins in their last nine games last night with a 14-point win over the Thunder. Greg Oden (the No. 1 overall pick in 2007 but injured all last season) had 16 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks in the win, which followed his 17-point, 12-rebound and six-block (career-high) effort in Sunday’s 109-108 win over New York. Oden (9.0-7.2) is far from a star yet but teamed with Prybilla (5.2-7.9), he gives the Blazers some very good play in the middle. Roy (22.4-4.8-5.1) is the team's lone All Star but power forward Aldridge (17.5-6.9) is approaching All Star status while Portland's depth is excellent. PG Steve Blake (11.3-4.7) APG has effectively missed the last 13 games (played just 11 scoreless minutes once, while missing 12 complete games) but rookie guard Bayless is averaging 10.0 PPG during that span while Rodriquez (who has been starting in Blake's absence), is averaging 7.1 PPG and 4.7 APG. Let's not forget small forward Outlaw (12.3), rookie guard Fernandez (who is averaging 10.6 PPG off the bench) or starting small forward Batum (4.8-2.8). Portland's win last night gives them a 20-5 SU (16-9 ATS) mark at home but the Blazers are a more modest 12-14 SU (10-16 ATS) on the road. Traveling off last night's "revenge win" (Blazers had just lost at OKC last Friday) to Oakland is not an easy assignment. The Warriors have been playing very well at home since Christmas, going 9-5 SU and an impressive 12-2 ATS. Golden State won 144-127 over the Knicks on Tuesday night at Oracle Arena, racking up the highest point total in the NBA this season (Magic had scored 139 points on Jan 13 at Sacramento). Monta Ellis (20.2 PPG last year) has been back from his suspension for 10 games and is rounding into form, averaging 12.5 PPG (team is 7-3 ATS in his 10 games). Guards like Watson (9.3-2.5 APG) and rookie Morrow (8.2) have gotten some valuable playing time with Ellis sidelined and that will help the Warriors' depth the rest of the way. Swingman Jackson (20.5-5.0-6.3) is having a superb season and the 6-5 Azubuike (13.6) has almost doubled his scoring average of his first two seasons (8.1). Of course, the Warriors really miss center Biedrins (13.0-11.8) and his almost nightly double-doubles (he's expected back soon) but Turiaf (5.1-3.9) has been starting in his place and giving the team a defensive intensity that it really needs. Maggette (19.6-5.8) missed four games at the end of November and 15 straight from Dec 8 through Jan 2 but he's been back for the last 18 games (coming off the bench in most games), scoring in double digits in each one, topping 20 points nine times and failing to score 15 points just once. He's really an excellent talent (when healthy and motivated). Anyway, the key here is the game situation in which it is a very tough travel spot for Portland (off last night's "revenge win" and with the break looming). Making it worse, is the matchup, as the Blazers are playing a run-and-gun team which is in its best form of the season. The fact that Portland has lost its last seven trips to Oakland (0-6-1 ATS) doesn't help.


PERFECT STORM on the GS Warriors

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's A-10 Showdown

Temple comes in on an 8-3 run since Jan 1 (13-9 overall and 5-3 in the A-10), while St Joe's is 9-1 (7-3 ATS) since the first of the year (14-8 overall and 7-1 in the A-10). Dayton is the only team to beat St Joe's in 2009 and with the Flyers' 71-58 home win over Xavier last night, the Hawks find themselves alone atop the A-10 (Dayton and Xavier are both 8-2). Both teams come in playing well and neither team has much in the way of a bench. This will be a 'battle' of the teams' starting-fives! The 6-5 Christmas (20.0-6.3-2.8) is the Owls' best player, joined in the backcourt by PG Inge (7.6-3.6-3.5) and Brooks (10.6-3.9). The 6-9 Allen (11.0-7.8) is a quality big man but as I like to say, the 7-0 Olmos (7.6-3.2) is "almost a real basketball player!" The 6-9 Nivins (19.6-11.8) leads in scoring and rebounding for St Joe's, joined up front by the 6-6 Hilliard (9.1-5.2). PG Carr (13.5-4.6-4.2) is an Iowa St transfer in his second season at St Joe's and he's been even better TY. Govens (13.5) and Williamson (5.5-4.5) round out the team's starting-five. While both teams have played well since the calendar returned to 2009, note that all THREE of Temple's loss have come on the road (at U Mass, Rhode Island and Xavier). These Philly schools have been rivals long before joining the A-10 and St Joe's will well-remember losing to Temple in LY's A-10 tourney final.

A-10 Showdown on St Joe's

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Thursday

10-Dime Warriors, Mavericks and Bulls

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

MAIN EVENT

I'm taking the points with DALLAS. The defending champs got back on track last night. However, they're still just 2-4 ATS their last six games. I expect them to have their hands full tonight.

For starters, the Celtics, who saw Allen leave yesterday's game with an injured thumb, will be playing the second of back to back games. That's worth noting as the Celts are just 5-7 ATS on the season when playing the second of back to back games, including outright losses vs. the likes of the Pacers, Warriors and Rockets.

Additionally, with this being the final game before the All Star Break, the champs could easily get caught looking past tonight's opponent and ahead to the festivities. Regardless of whether or not that proves to be the case, they'll be dealing with a highly motivated Dallas team, one which is playing very well at home these days.

I played against Dallas last Thursday and the Mavericks got embarrassed by the Jazz, losing by 28 at Utah. That game was also on TNT and should work in our favor here. For starters, many people watched the game and were left with the impression that the Mavs are not playing well, which is helping to keep tonight's number where it is. While that may be true on the road, that's hardly been the case here at Dallas. Indeed, the Mavs have won 10 of their last 11 at the American Airlines Center, including five straight.

Perhaps more importantly, the loss to the Jazz should provide the Mavs with some added motivation here, as no team wants to get embarrassed on the same (national TV) network on back to back weeks. Speaking of getting embarrassed, the Mavs were blown out at Boston less than three weeks ago. That loss should provide even further motivation for the Mavs, who will be anxious to prove that they can compete with the best from the East.

Yes, the Mavs will be without Jason Terry - and that is a significant loss for them. However, they scored 118 points without him last time out and I believe that they've still got enough talent to earn the upset tonight, even without their valuable sixth man. The Mavs are 11-3 (9-5 ATS) on the season after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. While no one talks about them much these days, this is still a playoff team which is capable of doing some damage on its homecourt. Catching their guests off a game last night and looking ahead to the All Star game/break, look for them to deliver a huge effort and avenge the earlier loss. *Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Notre Dame
Millionaire- Arizona St
No Limit- Idaho
Insiders- St Marys

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NCAA

NOTRE DAME

Game: Louisville vs. Notre Dame Game Time: 2/12/2009 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Notre Dame Reason: I'm taking the points with NOTRE DAME. I successfully played on Louisville when these teams faced each other exactly one month ago. The boxscore will show that the Cardinals won by a convincing 87-73 margin. However, I'll be the first to admit that it was a rather fortunate victory and it was anything but convincing. That's because the game was close the entire way before it went to overtime. Once in OT, having failed to close out the game in regulation, the Irish wilted. Despite the final score, that game showed that the Irish are fully capable of playing with the Cardinals and should provide them with some much-needed confidence for tonight's match. Star Luke Harangody promised the Irish would be fully ready for the Cardinals this time, noting of tonight's rematch: "It's going to be a fight and there's going to be punches thrown..." On an extended losing streak, there is no real pressure on the Irish here and that should allow them to relax. As guard Kyle McAlarney noted: "There really is nothing to lose. No one's going to pick us. So we really can go out there and let it all hang out and play with reckless abandon." Lets not forget that the Irish are still a very talented team. In fact, on paper, with four seniors and three juniors, including the reigning Big East player of the year (Harangody) this is one of Notre Dame's stronger teams in recent years. Note that the Irish even had the higher ranking than Louisville for last month's meeting. They haven't given up on the season yet and I look for them to get their turn-around started with a badly-needed victory. *Roast

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al?


nba
3 Golden State

cbb
3 Troy State
1 Arkansas State
1 Sienna

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NBA

UNDER portland/golden state

Game: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Golden State Warriors Game Time: 2/12/2009 10:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Portland and Golden State to finish UNDER the total. The reason that we have such a high over/under line here is because the Warriors score the second most points (most at home) in the league and because they also give up the most. That was on display in the Warriors' last game, as they combined with the Knicks to score a whopping 271 points. However, the Knicks are a team cut from the same mold as the Warriors, as they like to run up and down the floor and don't care much for playing defense. Note that even with that result, the UNDER remains a profitable 7-3 the last 10 Golden State games. Unlike the Knicks, the Blazers are a team which is capable of playing excellent defense. Heading into last night's game, the were allowing 95.2 points per game. Therefore, it was no surprise that they limited Oklahoma City to only 92. The 96.8 points per game which they allow on the road is the third best mark in the Western Conference, seventh best in the league. Looking back at Portland's last 20 games and we find that only two of them produced greater than 217 combined points. While both earlier meetings finished above the total, the UNDER remains a highly profitable 13-5 the last 18 meetings in this series. Note that NONE of those 20 meetings had an over/under line as high as tonight's number. The highest over/under line of those 20 games was one of 214.5 in 2007. This year's earlier two games had totals of 205.5 and 209 points. Tonight's number is significantly higher, which gives us plenty of room to work with. Note that the Blazers have seen the UNDER go 5-2 the last seven times that they played a game with an over/under line of 210 or great, including a 4-1 mark in five road games. Look for them to do their best to slow down their hosts and for the final combined score to find its way beneath the generous number. *Annihilator
DALLAS

Game: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks Game Time: 2/12/2009 9:35:00 PM Prediction: Dallas Mavericks Reason: I'm taking the points with DALLAS. The defending champs got back on track last night. However, they're still just 2-4 ATS their last six games. I expect them to have their hands full tonight. For starters, the Celtics, who saw Allen leave yesterday's game with an injured thumb, will be playing the second of back to back games. That's worth noting as the Celts are just 5-7 ATS on the season when playing the second of back to back games, including outright losses vs. the likes of the Pacers, Warriors and Rockets. Additionally, with this being the final game before the All Star Break, the champs could easily get caught looking past tonight's opponent and ahead to the festivities. Regardless of whether or not that proves to be the case, they'll be dealing with a highly motivated Dallas team, one which is playing very well at home these days. I played against Dallas last Thursday and the Mavericks got embarrassed by the Jazz, losing by 28 at Utah. That game was also on TNT and should work in our favor here. For starters, many people watched the game and were left with the impression that the Mavs are not playing well, which is helping to keep tonight's number where it is. While that may be true on the road, that's hardly been the case here at Dallas. Indeed, the Mavs have won 10 of their last 11 at the American Airlines Center, including five straight. Perhaps more importantly, the loss to the Jazz should provide the Mavs with some added motivation here, as no team wants to get embarrassed on the same (national TV) network on back to back weeks. Speaking of getting embarrassed, the Mavs were blown out at Boston less than three weeks ago. That loss should provide even further motivation for the Mavs, who will be anxious to prove that they can compete with the best from the East. Yes, the Mavs will be without Jason Terry - and that is a significant loss for them. However, they scored 118 points without him last time out and I believe that they've still got enough talent to earn the upset tonight, even without their valuable sixth man. The Mavs are 11-3 (9-5 ATS) on the season after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. While no one talks about them much these days, this is still a playoff team which is capable of doing some damage on its homecourt. Catching their guests off a game last night and looking ahead to the All Star game/break, look for them to deliver a huge effort and avenge the earlier loss. *Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS HOCKEY

NASHVILLE

Game: St. Louis Blues vs. Nashville Predators Game Time: 2/12/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Nashville Predators Reason: I'm laying the price with NASHVILLE. Its not often that the Blues face an opponent playing with "triple revenge." That's the case here though, as the Blues have won all three previous meetings this season. Those games should provide the Predators with plenty of motivation, as they absolutely can't afford to lose four straight vs. the team with the fewest points in the Western Conference. Note that two of the earlier three games were played at St. Louis and that the Blues' victory here at Nashville was a 1-0 win in a shootout. A closer look at the stats from that game shows that the Preds had a 47-17 edge on shots on goal! Even with that loss, the Preds are still a profitable 7-2 the last nine times that they were a host in this series. The Preds lost 5-3 last time out. However, that was against a powerful Detroit team and its worth noting that the Preds are still a profitable 35-25 (+10.1) the last 60 times that they were coming off a loss by two goals or more. Look for them to bounce back and get some payback from the earlier losses with the Blues falling to 1-7 the last eight times that they were coming off three or more consecutive losses. *Personal Favorite

[Mr. IWS]

spreitzer *25 Buffalo

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

3 Best Bets for Thursday.

Rotation #719 Buffalo (-9 1/2) 3-Stars at -12 or less, 4-Stars at -9.
Rotation #761 Manhattan (+13) 2-Stars at +13 or more.
Rotation #789 Montana (-10) 2-Stars at -11 or less.