2-14-09

[Mr. IWS]

LANG

Saturday ...
30-Dime Utah State - The Aggies are off to their best start in school history, they own an overall record of 23-1, and are currently tied with No. 2 Oklahoma for the most wins and best record in the nation. And while I know Taco Bell Arena is one of the toughest places to play – in America – the Broncos don’t have the kind of talent to penetrate Stew Morrill’s staunch defense that has become trademark during his tenure. Most people might not realize this, but Utah State is the only team in the nation to win at least 23 games in each of the last 10 years, and that’s because of Morrill’s tutelage.

As a team, Utah State leads the Western Athletic Conference in eight categories, including: scoring defense (59.9 points per game), scoring margin (+12.9 ppg), free throw percentage (.736), field goal percentage (.506), field goal percentage defense (.411), rebounding defense (27.4 rebounds per game), rebounding margin (+6.8 rpg), and assist/turnover ratio (1.45). And believe me, this kid Gary Wilkinson is something to watch, a vision to be amazed by, as his numbers are off the charts, while teammate Tai Wesley is dominating on defense for the Aggies.

Utah State has already knocked off Boise once this season, a 79-65 win in Logan, Utah. After the Broncos led 24-22 in the first half, USU went on a 21-9 run to close the half to lead 43-33 at intermission. To get ready for this game, the Broncos have split their last four games, against: Idaho, Houston Baptist, San Jose State and Fresno State. And with a dismal 2-7 ATS mark in their last nine against winning teams, I’ll have to side with the road team here.

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NCAA

Basketball (NCAA)

BAYLOR

Game: Texas A&M vs. Baylor Game Time: 2/14/2009 6:00:00 PM Prediction: Baylor Reason: I'm laying the points with BAYLOR. The Bears have certainly been struggling, having lost six straight, most recently a blowout loss vs. Oklahoma. However, they're a lot better than their record indicates and as teams like Notre Dame (seven straight losses, than beat Louisville by 33) have shown this week, you can only keep a good team down for so long. This should be an excellent spot for the Bears to break out of their slump. The Bears come in playing with "revenge," having lost at Texas A&M exactly one month ago. They followed that loss by winning games (SU and ATS) against Oklahoma State and Kansas State, before entering their current skid. A look at the six games shows that they came against Oklahoma (twice) Texas, Kansas, Missouri and Texas Tech. The first four of those teams have a combined record of 31-7. Of those five teams, only the Red Raiders are below 500 in conference play and the Bears had to face them on the road. Note that the Bears beat Texas Tech by double-digits when the teams met here at Baylor. Today, the Bears face a Texas A&M team which has lost four straight road games and which is just 3-6 in conference play. Naturally, that's a big step down from Oklahoma. Note that the Aggies 4-game road losing streak saw each of the losses come by a minimum of six points and by an average of 11.5 points. While they lost here last season, the Bears are still 7-2 ATS this millennium when hosting the Aggies. Look for them get on track in a big way today, improving to 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were coming off three or more consecutive losses. *Annihilator
GEORGETOWN

Game Time: 2/14/2009 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Georgetown Reason: I'm taking the points with GEORGETOWN. This is a big game for Syracuse. The Orange need wins and they're looking to avenge a blowout loss at Georgetown. However, its arguably an even bigger game for the Hoyas. Indeed, Georgetown has gone from being all but guaranteed of an NCAA tournament berth to having its chances now very much in doubt. While they lost a lot from last season's team and are admittedly still young, the Hoyas are very talented. They've got four players averaging better than a dozen points per game and a defense which allows 63.5 points per game. Note that Syracuse comes in allowing more than 70 per game. Despite failing to cover as underdogs at Marquette, the Hoyas are still a profitable 12-7-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs. On the other hand, while they covered vs. West Virginia, the Orange are 7-10 ATS their last 17 when listed as favorites. The Georgetown offense came to life when these teams met exactly one month ago. In fact, Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim switched from the zone to man-to-man in an attempt to slow down the Hoyas. Afterwards, he was quoted as saying: "We gave them open looks, and they knocked them down. We played equally bad in both defenses." Playing a must win game, I expect the Hoyas to be at their best again this afternoon. *Big East GOM
GEORGIA TECH

Game: N.C. State vs. Georgia Tech Game Time: 2/14/2009 1:30:00 PM Prediction: Georgia Tech Reason: I'm laying the points with GEORGIA TECH. The Yellow Jackets have lost an awful lot of close games this season, thanks in large part to the fact they've been turnover prone. That said, they cut down on their turnovers last time out and I believe that they're much better than their poor conference record (1-9) indicates. While I've only played on the Yellow Jackets once all season, that was in their upset victory over Wake Forest. I believe that they're capable of playing with any team in the conference and that this will prove to be another very favorable situation for them. Georgia Tech has lost seven ACC games by seven points or less this season, including three in overtime. One of those losses came at NC State. The Jackets blew a big lead late in that game and lost in overtime. That loss really hurt and puts them in bigtime "revenge" mode here. With time winding down, they badly want to gain some momentum before the regular season finishes, particularly as the ACC Tournament will be at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. Nothing comes easily in the ACC but the Jackets know that this is a rare winnable game, one which they can't afford to let get away. The Wolfpack may be ripe for a letdown, as they're off a big win over Wake Forest. While that victory was impressive, they're still just 3-6 in Conference play. Its important to note that all three of those wins (in addition to the win over the Jackets, they beat Miami by 3) came at home. On the road, the Wolfpack have really struggled. Indeed, they're 0-6 their last six road games with five of the six losses coming by four points or greater, three of them by double-digits. They've only got one road win on the season and that was at New Orleans back in November. Note that the Wolfpack failed to cover that game too, winning by six as 8.5 point favorites. (The Privateers currently have the second worst conference record (5-9) in the Sun Belt, worst in the West.) Looking back further and we find NC State at an ugly 1-12 its last 13 road games. The Wolfpack are just 3-6 ATS the last nine times that they were underdogs of four points or less. Off a huge win over an instate rival and with a "revenge" game vs. another instate rival (UNC) on deck, look for their road woes to continue today, as Georgia Tech puts it all together and earns a much needed victory, covering the small number along the way. *ACC GOY
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

Game: Creighton vs. Southern Illinois Game Time: 2/14/2009 5:00:00 PM Prediction: Southern Illinois Reason: I'm taking the points with SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. The Bluejays have been playing well and bring the much better record to the table. However, the Salukis played them very tough at Creighton last month, losing by a single point. That result will give the Salukis the confidence to know that they can play with them here. Playing at home, I expect them to score the minor upset this afternoon. Despite their struggles on the road, the Salukis still play stingy defense at home. Indeed, they're allowing a mere 59.4 points per game here on the season - Creighton, which has the better offensive numbers, allows 67 per game on the road. The Salukis are 5-2 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. They're also 41-29 ATS the last 70 times that they were coming off a conference loss. They've won eight of the last 11 home meetings in this series and I look for an extremely motivated effort here. *ESPN Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS HOCKEY

Hockey (NHL)

CAROLINA

Game: Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Carolina Hurricanes Game Time: 2/14/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Carolina Hurricanes Reason: I'm laying the price with CAROLINA. The Blue Jackets are playing well. However, this is an extremely tough spot for them. That's because it's a 1-game "road trip," after completing a perfect 3-game home stand last night. Last night's victory was no ordinary one, as it came againt the Red Wings. Having also beaten the Sharks on the homestand, it will be easy for the Jackets to look past a "mediocre" team like Carolina. That will prove costly though. The Jackets are 1-4-0 all-time at the RBC Center. Additionally, they've won just nine of 27 road games. Despite beating the Sharks in a recent back to back situation, they're also an awful 3-14 the last 17 times that they played the second of back to back games. The Hurricanes were embarrassed in their last game, a 5-0 loss vs. Florida. Note that they had 42 shots though, so it was partly a case of running into a hot goalie. More importantly, note that they had won eight of their previous 10 games here and that the shutout loss will provide them with added motivation here. As forward Tuomo Ruutu said of the loss: "It was 5-0 in your home building. It's not acceptable." Look for the Hurricanes to bounce back with a huge effort, cooling off their guests and picking up the important two points. *Personal Favorite

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness Saturday


Larry Ness' LEGEND Play-CBB (2-0 TY!)

California


Larry's Las Vegas Insider (9-2 run) Noon ET

George Mason


Larry Ness' Bailout Blowout (5-1 s/Jan 31)

Wisconsin

[Mr. IWS]

scott spritzer
5 ucla

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob
Free Saturday Early Best Bet
**GEORGE MASON (-5) over Northeastern
09:00 AM Pacific - Rotation 504
George Mason in coming off consecutive upset road losses, but the Patriots have a long history of playing better at home (75-54-3 ATS) than they do on the road (69-72-2 ATS) under coach Jim Larranaga. The Patriots are 46-24-2 ATS in conference home games when not favored by more than 12 points, including a perfect 8-0 ATS the last two seasons, and Northeastern applies to a very negative 95-200-5 ATS situation. Unfortunately, my ratings only favor George Mason by 5 points even after adjusting for their strong home court. I’ll make George Mason a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer
3* Penn St

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Boise St
Millionaire- Georgetown
No Limit- Alabama
Insiders- Kansas St
Perfect Play- TCU

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

4 additional Best Bets for Saturday (George Mason -5 for 2-Stars started at 9 am).

Rotation #568 Auburn (-2 1/2) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars at -3 1/2 or -4.
Rotation #617 Northern Iowa (pick) 2-Stars at -1 or better.
Rotation #651 Fullerton State (+3 1/2) 2-Stars at +3 or more.
Rotation #679 Montana (+2 1/2) 3-Stars at +1 or more, 2-Stars at pick or -1.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spietzer

5* UCLA
4* Creighton
3* GT
3* Penn St
3* South Caro
3* Baylor
3* Portland

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
5 cinc
4 st louis, nc char
3 penn st, creighton

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

3 * Whicita St.....road kill
3* Sou Miss
1* High Noon hanging GTown
1* High Roller Penn St