2-17-09

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang Tuesday

10-Dime Michigan State

10-Dime Kentucky

10-Dime OVER ECU/Southern Miss

FREE - Princeton

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- So Miss
Millionaire- Missouri State
MoneyMaker- Purdue
Billionaire- Vanderbilt

[Mr. IWS]

Burns NBA

Basketball (NBA)

LA CLIPPERS

Game: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns Game Time: 2/17/2009 9:05:00 PM Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers Reason: I'm taking the points with the LA CLIPPERS. As most know, the Suns have been a much stronger team than the Clippers in recent years. They were also significantly better in the first half of this season. Not surprisingly, the Suns knocked off the Clippers in two meetings this season, both of them coming in early January. However, a closer look at those games shows that the Clippers covered the spread in each game, losing by eight at Phoenix and by six at LA. Much has changed in the past six weeks or so though. While the Clippers have gotten much healthier during that span, the Suns are currently dealing with numerous "issues." Indeed, they've got trade rumors re. Amare Stoudemire, their leading scorer, swirling around, causing a distraction to both him and the team. Their second leading scorer, Shaq, could easily have an "All Star letdown." They've also currently got a suspension to their third leading scorer, Jason Richardson. Additionally, they've just had their coach replaced. Clearly, things aren't what they used to be in the desert. Meanwhile, the Clippers are playing their best ball for quite some time, winning three of four before the All Star game. As rookie guard Eric Gordon, who 30 points in the game before the break, had to say: "We definitely needed to find some momentum before the All-Star break. We got our guys back together and we're starting to get the chemistry back." While they do host the Suns tomorrow night, the Clippers really want to carry that positive momentum into tonight's game and start the second half on the right foot, rather than waiting for tomorrow. The Suns are 5-13-1 ATS this season when facing a team which allows 99 or more points per game. They're also 6-15-1 ATS when matched up against a team with a losing record. Additionally, they're 0-3 ATS when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Look for them to have their hands full tonight with the Clippers moving to 5-0 ATS the last five meetings in this series. *Pacific Division GOM
OKLAHOMA CITY

Game: New Orleans Hornets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Game Time: 2/17/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder Reason: I'm taking the points with OKLAHOMA CITY. I successfully played against the Thunder in their final game before the break, as they were blown out by Portland. However, that was a very tough spot as they were coming off a hard-fought loss with the Lakers the previous night and were catching a rested Portland team which was playing with revenge. Additionally, that game came on the road. Tonight, the Thunder are back home, where they've been very competitive for several weeks. Oklahoma City comes in with a highly profitable 12-3 ATS mark in its last 15 games here. They won nine of those games outright and none of the losses came by more than 11 points. In fact, three of the six losses came by two points or less. Not surprisingly, the Thunder are a perfect 3-0 ATS since New Year's Eve, when listed as home underdogs of four points or fewer. While the Thunder, who are playing with "double-revenge" and who don't play again until Friday, should be fully focused, this is a tough spot for the Hornets. Not only are they still dealing with injuries to Chandler and Peterson (both currently listed as doubtful) but they've also got a big "revenge" game vs. Orlando on deck tomorrow night. You may recall the last time that the Hornets faced the Magic, as that game came on Christmas Day - the Hornets were blown out by 20 points, losing 88-68. While the Hornets are 9-12-1 ATS this season against teams with a losing record, the Thunder are an excellent 18-9-1 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Look for them to continue their strong homecourt play, improving to 13-7 ATS the last 20 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier loss. *Non-Div. Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NCAA

Basketball (NCAA)

PURDUE

Game: Michigan State vs. Purdue Game Time: 2/17/2009 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Purdue Reason: I'm laying the small number with PURDUE. After closing out January on a major run, the Boilermakers have had some trouble in February. In four games this month, they've gone just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. Those results have helped to keep this evening's number quite low. However, a closer look shows that three of those four games came on the road and that those were the three pointspread losses. The lone home game resulted in a 14-point win (and cover) vs. Penn State. Including that victory, the Boilermakers are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS at home in 2009. For the season, they're allowing a mere 53.8 points per game on this floor. As usual, the Spartans boast a strong team and it's true that they've been playing well on the road. However, a closer look shows that they've been favored for every one of their conference road games, while this evening, they come in as small underdogs. That hasn't been a good role for them over the years, as we find them at 0-4 SU/ATS the last four times that they were listed as road underdogs of three points or less and a money-burning 5-11 SU/ATS their last 16 in that situation. On the other hand, the Boilermakers come in at a stellar 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven times that they were home favorites of three points or less. Overall, the Boilermakers are 34-4 SU and 25-13 ATS their last 38 home lined games. During the same stretch, Purdue has also gone a profitable 23-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games of the season. Looking at the recent series history and we find that the Boilermakers are a perfect 4-0 ATS their last four meetings with the Spartans. They covered the spread in a pair of losses at Michigan State and they won by scores of 60-54 and 62-38 the last two times that the teams faced each other here at Purdue. The Boilermakers got Hummel back last game and he should be stronger with a game under his belt. Look for a huge effort from Hummel and co. as they earn the important victory and cover the small number along the way. *CBB Personal Favorite
VANDERBILT

Game: Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt Game Time: 2/17/2009 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Vanderbilt Reason: I'm taking the points with VANDERBILT. The early money has come in on Kentucky, as this game opened at a pick'em or with Kentucky laying just one point. While it doesn't surprise me, I feel that the move will prove to be a mistake and that it will be the Commodores which come away with the important victory this evening. These teams met at Kentucky last month with the Wildcats winning by 10, as nine point favorites. However, a closer look shows that the Commodores played that game without leading scorer A.J. Ogilvy. The sophomore dressed but watched the entire game from the bench after aggravating a heel injury the previous day. That was a major blow. In addition to his 14.6 points per game, as Ogilvy also leads the Commodores in rebounds. Off a sub-par outing vs. Tennessee last time out, I expect a big game from Ogilvy this evening. While the Commodores were pounded at Tennessee, they're 2-0 at home this month, most recently knocking off Mississippi by double-digits. Looking back further and we find the Commodores at an outstanding 44-7 their last 51 home games. That includes a 93-52 beating of the Wildcats here last season, their biggest win in the SEC in 15 years, and a 4-2 SU/ATS mark as home underdogs of three points or less. Looking back further and we find the Commodores with a profitable 14-9 SU/ATS mark the last 23 times that they were home underdogs of three points or less. Including last year's destruction, Vandy has won the last three meetings with the Wildcats here in Nashville. While last year's game here should provide Kentucky with some added motivation, I still don't expect it to be enough. Note that the Wildcats may be without Patrick Patterson, currently listed as questionable. While Patterson could play, with a very important game vs. Tennessee on deck, there's also a reasonable chance that Kentucky could hold him out. That would be a big blow as Patterson is second on the team in scoring (only one of two scorers averaging in double-digits, while Vandy has four) and he leads the team in rebounding. Even if he plays, he may not be 100% and/or may be limited. Regardless, look for the revenge-minded Commodores to bounce back with a huge effort, continuing their recent homecourt success in this series and improving to 14-3 the last 17 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. *annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS HOCKEY

Hockey (NHL)

AVALANCHE

Game: Ottawa Senators vs. Colorado Avalanche Game Time: 2/17/2009 9:35:00 PM Prediction: Colorado Avalanche Reason: I'm playing on COLORADO. The Senators' recent win streak has shown that they are better than their overall record indicates. That said, this is a very tough spot for them. While Colorado had last night off, Ottawa comes off a win at Nashville. This isn't just a back to back situation though. That's because it's the final game of a road trip and will also mark their fifth game in the past seven days. That's about as gruelling as it gets in the NHL and I expect it to catch up with the Sens this evening. Note that Ottawa has never had a perfect five-game road trip in franchise history. The Avalanche have admittedly had some real problems of their own. However, they knocked off the Red Wings on Sunday (no easy task!) and that gives them some positive momentum here. While the Sens are now 15-23 their last 38 games against teams from the West, during the same stretch, the Avs have gone a solid 35-25 (+9.6) against teams from the East. Even including recent results, the Avs are still above 500 (16-14) at home while the Sens still have just 10 wins in 29 road games. The Avs, who got veteran defenseman Adam Foote back last game, head out on the road for a 6-game 11-day trip, after this. That makes winning tonight's home game all that much more important. Look for the Avs to be the fresher team and for that, combined with home ice advantage, to be the difference. *NHL Personal Favorite

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 20* PERFECT STORM-CBB (10-5 BKB run since last Weds!)
My 20* PERFECT STORM play is on Kent St at 7:30 ET. I attended Ohio U and tonight will not be a pleasant experience for my beloved Bobcats. Athens has been a tough venue this year for visiting teams (Ohio U is 11-1 at home in the Convocation Center) but the Bobcats are a measly 2-9 away from home, beating Austin Peay in their first road game of the season (back on Nov 22) and then Miami-Ohio on Jan 14. The 6-6 Tillman (18.9-8.2) is a terrific player and the 6-6 Orr (10.6-3.8) has had a solid season but all in all, this is an average team. Former Ohio State assistant John Groce is known as a great recruiter and that will be his challenge after accepting the head coaching job prior to this year, when Tim O'Shea chose to leave after seven reasonably successful seasons in Athens. The 6-10 van Kempen (3.5-2.3) will NEVER be much of a player and 6-7 sophomore Washington (6.6-4.6) has played much better than he did as a freshman but in the end, is just an average player. Ohio's backcourt is solid but no more. PG Allen (7.0-4.4 APG) is serviceable, joined by freshman Coleman (9.2-3.2-2.6) and 6-5 sophomore Freeman (8.4). Kent has been the MAC's dominant team of the last decade, as the Golden Flashes entered this year as one of just SEVEN Division I schools with a least 20 wins in each of the last 10 seasons. However, Jim Christian, who won 20 or more in each of his six seasons at Kent, left for TCU at the end of LY (Kent was 28-7). So who is at the reigns this year? Try former Bobcat and All-MAC guard, Geno Ford. Kent suffered through all sorts of problems this season, as the Golden Flashes were hardly 'golden.' From Nov 28 through Jan 11 (a 71-65 loss in Athens against these Bobcats), Kent went 4-8 SU and 0-9 ATS! After a 72-48 win over Bowling Green snapped the team's ATS slide, three more losses followed, with Kent averaging a pathetic 54 PPG. However, Kent enters this game having won SIX straight games (4-2 ATS), while averaging 70.7 PPG. The team's 'swagger' is back, led by LY's player-of-the-year, Fisher (15.2-3.3 APG). A HUGE addition (16 games ago) came with the eligibility of the talented but troubled, Tyree Evans but "all has been right," with Evans averaging 12.5 PPG alongside of Fisher. The 6-4 Singletary (12.8-4.4-3.3) is a 'tweener' but he's having a solid season, while veteran guards McKee (3.9) and Mincy (3.3-2.8 APG) can only add depth in a crowded backcourt. Small forward Sullinger (6.9-4.7) has been fine, while CC transfer Simpson (7.4-6.5) and the 6-10 Parks (6.9-5.0), who averaged just 1.6-0.7 LY, have both been excellent 'finds.' After its slow start, Kent (14-11 overall and 7-4 in the MAC) will probably not be the No. 1 seed in this year's tourney but the Golden Flashes just may be loop's best team come March 11 (first day of the MAC tourney). MAC schools all know that the conference hasn't had an at-large NCAA bid since 1999, so if you want to 'go dancing,' you had better be ready to win the MAC tourney. Kent is more than capable of doing just that. However, first things first. Kent "owes the Bobcats one," from that six-point loss in Athens on Jan 11. Expect tonight's win to come rather handily! PERFECT STORM 20* Kent St.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 15* Underdog Shocker (6-1 NBA run since Feb 6)
My 15* Underdog Shocker at 8:05 ET. New Orleans needed the few days of rest provided by the All-Star break, as the Hornets dropped SIX of their prior eight games before the lay-off. The last two losses were rather 'ugly,' losing 85-80 at Memphis (shot 39.5%) and 89-77 at home to the Celtics (shot 41.0 percent). Chris Paul (21.3-5.3-10.8) returned to action vs the Celtics but center Tyson Chandler (8.8-8.3) is still sidelined with an ankle injury (listed as doubtful tonight). West (19.5-7.5) is having another "typical" year, Peja (14.4-4.2) is steady and Posey (9.5-4.7) has done what's been asked of him but this year's Hornets seem to be "falling from grace," unlike the team which was everyone's 'darlings' at the end of last year. Oklahoma City comes out of the All-Star break with the third-worst record in the NBA (13-39) but at 33-20 ATS, the Thunder own the West's best ATS mark (third-best in the entire NBA). Interim head coach Scott Brooks moved Kevin Durant (25.5-6.6) from the shooting guard to the small forward position and he's averaged 30.8 PPG in his six February games. Jeff Green's (16.7-6.6) numbers are up from his rookie year (10.5-4.7), while TY's rookie , Westbrook (15.0-4.7-4.9) , could hardly be expected to play any better. Weaver (3.6) is now starting at the SG spot and Collison (8.0-6.5) at center. PG Watson (6.4-5.8 APG), SG Wilkins (5.1) plus forwards Wilcox (8.4-5.3) and Smith (6.6-4.5) are all rumored to be on the trading block, but this team has been extremely competitive since Brooks has taken over for PJ as head coach. The FA signing of New Jersey center Krstic made little noise at the time but since Jan 7, he's played in 17 of 18 games, averaging 8.6 PPG and 5.1 RPG. Let's remember, before getting hurt, he was averaging 12.4 PPG and 6.0 RPG in two-plus years for the Nets. The Hornets have beaten the Thunder twice already this year, 105-80 and 109-97 but "that was then and this is now." One only needs to look at tonight's pointspread to realize that, as the last time the Hornets came to OKC (11/21), they were 10.5-point favorites, while on this visit they opened as just five-point choices and immediately dropped. With good reason! Underdog Shocker 15* OKC Thunder.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-NBA (6-1 or 85.7% NBA run since Feb 6)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the SA Spurs at 7:35 ET. The Spurs opened the year with Ginobili recovering from an ankle injury (he would miss the team's first 13 games) and then Parker went down in the team's 12th game and would miss the next nine contests. Through all of this, the Spurs finished the break 35-16, a record topped in the West by only the Lakers. Ginobili's (16.1-4.7-3.5) numbers are again approaching last year's career-best ones, Parker is averaging 20.4 PPG and 6.4 APG, while Duncan (20.8-10.5) is simply put, Tim Duncan. Mason (11.9-3.2) and the 6-10 Bonner (8.5-4.8) have been major contributors this year, helping the Sputrs to the NBA's second-best three-point percentage of 39.2 (Mason's making 44.9 percent and Bonner, 49.0). Veteran Finley (9.2) has been solid and rookie guard Hill (6.6) was superb when Parker went out and has been a solid contributor, since. The Knicks have shown signs of improvement under D'Antoni at times but lost their final six games prior to there break (21-31 record), while allowing an alarming 120.7 PPG (rank 28th in PPG allowed this year, at 107.8). Harrington (21.2-6.5) has done well in his 39 games with the Knicks, while PF Lee (16.4-11.8) and guard Robinson (16.0-4.0-3.8) are having career seasons. PG Duhon (12.5-8.0 APG) and swingman Chandler (13.7-5.0) have been better than could be expected, while the 6-10 Gallinari (6.1) from Italy is now playing regularly (17 games). However, as the Spurs come to town tonight, Duhon is bothered by an ankle, Richardson (11.0-4.7) by his ribs and Thomas (9.6-5.0) by his groin. What's worse is that the Spurs have typically played extremely well coming off the All Star break. In fact, San Antonio owns a league-best winning percentage of .746 over the last six NBA seasons in the second half! The Spurs came back from the 2006 break to win their first seven games, opened the second half of the 2007 season with 11 straight post-break wins and last year opened the season's second half with nine straight wins. San Antonio outscored the Knicks 54-39 in the second half of its 92-80 home win back on Nov 11, a game in which both Ginobili and Parker were sidelined for. It marked San Antonio's 10th win in its last 11 meetings with the Knicks and there's little reason to expect anything will be different tonight. Las Vegas Insider on the SA Spurs.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 15* Revenge Rout-CBB (10-5 BKB run since Weds!)
My 15* Revenge Rout is on BYU at 9:00 ET. Steve Alford won 24 games in his first season in Albuquerque and got the Lobos to win on the road, something they have been famous for NOT doing. New Mexico enters this game 16-9 (7-3 in MWC play) and is again, surprising many with its road play. The Lobos won at New Mexico St on Dec 30, the first of what was FIVE straight ATS road covers, ending last Wednesday when New Mexico won 76-66 at struggling Air Force, but failed to cover as a 12.5-point favorite. The do-everything JR Giddens (16.3-8.8) is gone from LY's team but the return of the 6-5 Danridge (13.7-4.4), who missed all of LY with an injury, has been HUGE (he leads the team in scoring). LY's freshman PG, Gary (7.0-4.2 APG), is joined in TY's backcourt by TY's star freshman, McDonald (8.4-3.6). Garth (5.0-3.6 APG) adds depth in the backcourt, with 6-6 swingman Martinez (10.8-6.0) and the team's lone "big man," the 6-9 Faris (11.5-5.9), joining Danridge, Martinez, Gary and McDonald in the starting lineup. The 6-7 Toppert (11.1-3.) continues in his role of coming off the bench and supplying excellent point-production. Let's note that the Lobos have lost at three tough MWC venues since the first of the year, 69-68 at Utah, 81-76 at SDSU and 60-58 at UNLV. However, they covered all three of those games, against teams which are a combined 35-7 SU (.833). That's pretty impressive, so does that mean I'm "taking the points?" N-O! BYU's Marriott Center is the "toughest of venues." Yes, the Cougars saw their 53-game home winning streak snapped by Wake back on Jan 3 but the Lobos have nowhere the talent (or depth) of the Demon Deacons, who shot 50.0 percent from the floor in that game, while BYU shot 40.2 percent (also made only 10-of-32 threes!). BYU also lost this year at home to UNLV (11-2 SU and just 4-8 ATS on the year at home) but since losing a brutal 94-88 OT game in Salt Lake City to hated rival Utah, the Cougars have rebounded to go 4-0 SU and ATS. It's clear that the 6-11 Miles (7.5-3.7) has been no replacement for Plaisted (15.6-7.7) in the middle but in Cummard (17.2-6.3-3.3) and Tavernari (17.0-7.0), the Cougars have two of the MWC's best players. Guard Fredette (15.7-4.5 APG) is an excellent leader in the backcourt, joined by Emery (7.5-3.8) plus Morgan and Abouo, who combine for about 12 PPG. Revenge is definitely on the minds of all BYU players after the team's 81-62 loss at "The Pit" back on Jan 17, a loss which ended BYU's six-game winning streak in this series and is BYU's most lopsided loss this year. The Cougars have won 25 and 27 games the last two seasons, winning MWC regular season titles both years, before losing in the MWC tourney to UNLV, playing on its home court. The Cougars (7-3) trail both SDSU (8-3) and Utah (9-2) right now in the league standings and with visits to UNLV (Sat) and SDSU (Feb 24) coming up next, this home became becomes HUGE. Revenge Rout 15* BYU.

Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob
Tuesday NBA Opinion
ORLANDO (-8 ½) over Charlotte
Rotation #704 – 4:05 pm Pacific
Orlando hasn’t played as well without injured All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson, but the Magic continue to play well after a loss regardless of who is in the lineup. Orlando is 34-12 ATS after a loss under coach Stan Van Gundy, including 3-0 ATS this season without Nelson in the lineup (and 1-0 without star Dwight Howard). Unfortunately, my ratings only favor Orlando by 7 ½ points in this game with Charlotte at full strength now that Gerald Wallace and Raja Bell are ready to return to the lineup (the Bobcats are 9-7 straight up and 11-4-1 ATS when they both play). I’ll still lean with Orlando given how good they’ve been after a loss.

Tuesday College Opinions
PRINCETON (-2 ½) over Penn
Rotation #726 – 4 pm Pacific
Princeton was swept in their weekend road trip at Yale and Brown, losing those games by an average of 15 points, while Penn beat those two teams by an average of 13 points. Prior to their bad weekend, the Tigers had won 7 consecutive games and they are 7-3 straight up and 5-2 ATS since G Marcus Schroeder joined the lineup (5-0 SU and 3-0 ATS at home). Penn had lost 5 of 6 prior to winning those two games over the weekend. My ratings favor the Tigers by 5 ½ points and I’ll lean with Princeton based on the line value.

Murray State (-14 ½) over SE MISSOURI STATE
Rotation #741 – 5 pm Pacific
Southeast Missouri State is a horrible team on a 15 game losing streak that has lost their 10 home games by an average of 10.4 points to teams that are, on average, 7.5 points worse than Murray State. The Redhawks are only 3-12 ATS in their last 15 lined home games (2-6 ATS this season) and they apply to a negative 3-28-1 ATS subset of a 27-66-1 ATS home dog situation that plays against horrible teams. SE Missouri State also applies to a negative 58-115-3 ATS situation. My ratings favor Murray State by 14 ½ points and using the Redhawks’ home games and the Racers’ road games would yield a predicted margin of 18 points. In the first match up between these teams a few weeks ago SE Missouri State made 53.5% of their shots and Murray State made just 43.5% of their shots and the Racers still won by 25 points – which is a good indicator of how much better Murray State is. The line is a bit higher than I had hoped it would be, so I’ll just lean with Murray State at -15 or -14 ½ points. I’d make Murray State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
4 bradley
3 kentucky, BYU, 76ers, hornets