2-18-09

[Mr. IWS]

::moneybag::

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: It's starting to look like this is Buffalo's year. Turner Gill led the football team to the MAC championship and a bowl game and now Reggie Witherspoon is looking for a "repeat performance" by this year's basketball team. The Bulls were just 10-20 (3-13 in the MAC) last year but this year's team comes into this game 17-6 overall, while leading the MAC East with a 9-2 record. The Bulls saw their nine-game winning streak snapped this past Sunday, as they lost 53-51 at Ball State (shot just 37 percent as a team, including 2-of-9 on threes!) but don't expect that one loss to "burst the team's bubble." The Bulls have 11 players in their rotation, nine who have played in all 23 games. The 6-3 Betts (10.0-6.1) and the 6-4 Gamble (8.8-5.3) are two small forwards who get the most out of their abilities. The 6-9 Fedotov (5.3-2.4) and the 6-7 Bouderau (5.3-3.) have done decent jobs inside, while Pierce (14.0-3.7) has had a breakout season at one guard (he averaged just 7.6 PPG last year) and fellow guard Andy Robinson (8.2) has been the team's best perimeter defender. Bowling Green also 'slipped up' this past Sunday but it's transgression was much worse. The Falcons, 14-10 overall and 7-4 in MAC play, lost 65-57 at home to Eastern Michigan, which is just 4-12 overall, including 2-9 in MAC play. Louis Orr is in his second season at BG (went 13-17 LY) and like Buffalo, has two talented small forwards (both 6-4) in Miller (12.5-6.7) and Clements (10.3-4.3). The Falcons own a little more size than the Bulls, as the 6-7 Knight (6.6-4.9), the 6-9 Polk (5.9-5.6) and the 6-7 Marschall (4.9-3.7) are all contributors. BG's backcourt consists of Moten (11.2) and Jakubowski (8.3-2.8-3.7). Bowling Green beat Buffalo 86-82 back on Jan 10, while shooting 53 percent from the floor (including 8-of-13 on threes). One can't expect that kind of marksmanship again, as Buffalo is allowing just 59 PPG on its home floor, where it is 8-2. Revenge works here. Revenge Rout on Buffalo (7*).

REASON FOR PICK: Charles Koch went 11-20 (4-14 in MVC play) in his first season as the Shockers' head coach and lost four starters off that team. He enters this game 13-13 overall, with a 7-8 league mark. Freshman guard Murry (11.6-3.6) and his JUCO partner Hannah (10.4-4.5 APG) have solidified Wichita's backcourt but 7-0 freshman Stutz (4.6-2.9) has not lived up to expectations, in the frontcourt. The 6-7 Durley (8.0-4.5) has recovered nicely from LY's injury, while the 6-6 Clemente (7.2-7.7) has been fine all season, after collapsing during July drills. Hawkins (4.4-2.1), a 6-5 transfer from St Bonaventure, is about the only other major contributor. Illinois St opened the year 14-0 but is just 7-5 since. The Redbirds are 10-5 in the MVC, trailing both Northern Iowa and Creighton. Illinois St won 25 games last season in Tim Jankovich's first year at Normal and are well on their way to topping that total this year. Three starters are gone from LY's team but only the 6-7 Slack (9.5-7.1) is really missed. The 6-8 Odiakosa (9.2-7.3) and the 6-8 Sampay (7.2-5.0) have done a decent job up front and shouldn't have much trouble with Wichita's frontcourt. Illinois State's backcourt has been excellent all year, as returning players Eldridgre (14.0-6.1) and Holloway (11.1-4.1-2.9) have been joined by 6-5 Oregon transfer Oguchi (14.7-5.8) and JUCO point guard Phillips (11.6-3.5 APG). Phillips has missed the team's last two games because of personal reasons but it hasn't mattered, as the Redbirds won at Evansville and then routed last year's MVC champs Drake, 67-45 in Des Moines on Sunday (Phillips is expected back here). Illinois St knows failing to win the MVC regular season title likely means no NCAA bid without winning the MVC tourney, as LY's 24 wins left the team playing in the NIT. Illinois St still has games upcoming with Northern Iowa and Creighton but tonight, it's first things first. The Redbirds won't lack for motivation, as this will be the team's first home game since it lost 75-73 (in OT) in Normal to Indiana St on Feb 8. It's the team's lone home loss this year (14-1 SU) and came to a team which is 7-19 overall, including 5-10 in MVC play. What's more, Illinois St lost 64-58 at Wichita State back on Jan 21, so taking the Shockers lightly should not be a worry. Wichita State is just 1-8 SU on the road TY (won at Ind St), even losing 68-55 at MVC doormat Missouri St (Bears are 3-13 in MVC play). The Shockers have been a poor road team for quite some time now, while Illinois St has been tough to beat here in Redbird Arena. Weekly Wipeout Winner Illinois St (7.5*).

Travis Ford led U Mass to 24 wins and 25 wins in each of the last two seasons and last year, led the Minutemen to the NIT championship game (lost to Ohio St). He used that as a 'springboard' to get the Okla St job, where Sean Sutton was let go. Things haven't exactly worked out as planned for Ford and their are rumors that he's alienated more than a few players. The Cowboys are an odd team to begin with, featuring no big men to speak of. The 6-11 Thomas (8.3-3.9) decided to transfer after seven games and OSU is basically down to a five-man rotation. It includes PG Eaton (14.5-3.4-6.0) and freshman Page (9.2), teamed with three 6-5 or 6-6 players. Anderson (17.7-5.8) is the team's leading scorer, Muonelo (14.1-8.3) its leading rebounder and Harris (14.3-5.0) completes the trio. OSU has been known as a poor road team long before Ford's arrival but he's dome little to change that reputation this year. OSU is 2-5 SU (1-5 ATS) in true road games this year, beating only Texas A&M-CC and Nebraska. In three neutral-site games, the Cowboys lost to Gonzaga and Mich St (0-2 ATS), while beating Siena. Now things are "far from perfect" in Lubbock either, as Pat Knight tries to fill his father's shoes. Tech is not a big team by any stretch of the imagination but the 6-5 Singleatry (10.2-5.3) is a pretty nice small forward, 6-9 freshman Lewandowski (6.9-4.0) has shown signs of being a pretty fair player plus the 6-7 Roberts (6.1-4.2) and the 6-7 Prince (4.3-3.2) add 'bodies.' Tech's backcourt is pretty good, led by sophomore PG Roberson (14.4-3.4-6.7), senior Voskuvil (14.0-4.2) and JUCO transfer Okorie (10.3.). Tech is 11-3 SU at home (losses are to TCU, Tex and Neb) and almost won at Stillwater back on Feb 4. In that game, Tech led 47-35 at the half, before barely losing, 81-80. Knight's team is fighting for a winning season right now (12-13 overall) and the poor-traveling, somewhat 'distracted' Cowboys should prove to be the perfect 'tonic.' OSU has lost eight games away from Stillwater this year, allowing 85.6 PPG. While I'm not calling for Tech to 'hang' 167 points on the Cowboys (like the Red Raiders did to East Central on Nov 20), I do expect them to have a big game. Why is this bunch of Cowboys even favored away from Stillwater? Oddsmaker's Error on Okla State (8*).

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang



15-Dime
Ohio State

5-Dime
Mississippi State

5-Dime
Philadelphia Sixers

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NBA

Basketball (NBA)

HORNETS

Game: Orlando Magic vs. New Orleans Hornets Game Time: 2/18/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: New Orleans Hornets Reason: I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. Both these top tier teams come off narrow victories last night. The Hornets won by two at Oklahoma City. The Magic needed overtime to get by Charlotte. While neither team covered, with the exception of a very big game from Dwight Howard, the Hornets were arguably more impressive overall. Winning at OKC isn't easy these days. However, the Magic shouldn't have had so much trouble beating a Charlotte team which doesn't play well on the road. Both teams are currently dealing with some "issues." The Hornets made a major trade yesterday, which saw them deal center Tyson Chandler. Although Chandler had been hurt recently, his loss does weaken the Hornets inside. Meanwhile, the Magic are still dealing with the injury to Jameer Nelson, a huge blow to their team. It's true that the Magic have been an excellent road team. However, their road record (18-7) is only marginally better than the Hornets' home (18- 9) record. The Hornets should be the more motivated team and I expect that to prove to be the difference. For starters, the Magic are comfortably on top of the Southeast Division. They could still catch Boston and Cleveland, the loss of Nelson makes that less likely. However, with an 8.5 game lead on their nearest division rival, they're still highly unlikely to finish less than third in the East. Conversely, the Hornets are fighting for their playoff lives. Only 3.5 games back of the Spurs, they could easily still finish on top of their division. However, they're also only 2.5 games ahead of the ninth place team (Phoenix) in the highly competitive West, which has nine teams fighting for eight spots, the bottom six of them separated by a mere 3.5 games. Additional motivation will be provided by the fact that the Hornets were blown out at Orlando on Christmas Day, losing by a score of 88-66, their lowest scoring output of the season. Chris Paul is extremely competitive and he'll have the Hornets, who are a profitable 59-37-2 ATS in the revenge role the past few seasons, fired up to earn some payback. Look for him to lead by example and for the home team to come away with the important victory. *Personal Favorite
76ERS

Game: Denver Nuggets vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game Time: 2/18/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers Reason: I'm taking the points PHILADELPHIA. We're getting a very reasonable line on the 76'ers here, due in part to the fact that they played last night. However, this back to back situation isn't nearly as difficult as usual. Often, teams will be playing their third game in four nights or even their fourth game in five nights. That's not the case here though because yesterday was the first day back from the All Star Break, so the players had plenty of rest before yesterday's game. Note that the 76'ers are 3-1 ATS when playing the second of back to back games in 2009. It's also worth mentioning that the Nuggets are 1-4 ATS on the season when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. While the talented Nuggets are certainly worthy of respect, winning at Philadelphia has been no easy task in recent weeks. Indeed, the 76ers have won four straight, 10 of 13 and 12 of their last 16 games here at the Wachovia Center. They were 9-5-2 ATS during that 16-game stretch, playing particularly tough against teams from the West. They did lose by two points to Dallas. However, they beat the likes of the Spurs, Blazers and Suns all by double-digits. In fact, Philly beat those three teams by a combined 60 points! (They also defeated the Rockets by eight.) Additionally, although not a Western Conf. team, note that they also played the Celtics very tough here during that 16 game stretch, losing by a single point. Including the 21 and 22 point victories over San Antonio and Portland, the 76'ers are a perfect 4-0 (3-1 SU) as home underdogs of three points or less. They've played the Nuggets tough the last two meetings. They lost by four at Denver, covering as 6.5 point underdogs, back in December. The previous meeting was here at Philadelphia, 11 months ago, and that resulted in a 2-point victory for the 76'ers. I expect the 76'ers to continue their strong play on this court and for them to score the minor upset. *Annihilator
RAPTORS

Game: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Toronto Raptors Game Time: 2/18/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Toronto Raptors Reason: I'm taking the points with TORONTO. The Cavaliers had an outstanding first half and they were nearly unbeatable on the road. They were rather ordinary on the road though, going 14-12 ATS. That's admittedly still a lot better than the Raptors' home record. That said, the Raptors showed some real spark heading into the break. Indeed, they closed out the first half of the season with an eight point win at Minnesota, followed by an outright win over the Spurs, who were red hot at the time. They won both those games without Bosh. Conversely, while the Cavs did win their final game, they were still 1-3 ATS their last four, including 0-2 ATS their last two on the road. Every game is important to the Cavs, as they want to finish ahead of Boston and Orlando for the top spot. In my opinion, this game is more important for the Raptors though. The Raptors are second last in the Conference and are probably too far back to actually make the playoffs. However, the last couple of wins have given them new hope and a closer looks that they're actually only 5.5 games back of the 8th place team. If they really want to make a push, every game is extremely important. They'd also like to get a win under their belts to feel good about the recent O'Neall/Marion/Banks trade. Additionally, added importance and motivation comes from the fact that the Raptors already got crushed twice at Cleveland. The Raptors have played the Cavs tough here at Toronto. While they've only won two of the last five series meetings here, the three losses came by only five combined points, two of them coming by a single point. Look for the new look Raptors to give their guests all they can handle once again. *Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

Burns NCAA

Basketball (NCAA)

ILLINOIS-CHICAGO

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS HOCKEY

UNDER ducks/kings

Game: Los Angeles Kings vs. Anaheim Ducks Game Time: 2/18/2009 10:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Kings and Ducks to finish UNDER the number. These teams both come off losses against the Thrashers. In both cases, a ton of goals were scored. The Ducks were beaten 8-4. The Kings lost 7-6. That's not "normal" for either team though and I expect both to be determined to play much better defensively this evening. Prior to the game vs. Atlanta, the Ducks had seen their previous two games finish with scores of 3-2 and 2-1. Likewise, prior to facing Atlanta, the Kings had seen their previous two games finish with scores of 3-2 and 2-0. The Kings have seen the UNDER go go 10-6 this season after allowing four or more goals. The last time they allowed four or more goals, they responded by holding the Devils to one goal in their next game. The last time that the Ducks allowed four or more goals, they also responded by allowing just a single goal. Anaheim doesn't often string together back to back high-scoring games either. The last time that the Ducks scored four or more goals, they were shutout in their next game. Including that result, the UNDER is 12-5 the last 17 times that the Ducks scored four or more goals in their previous game and 43-28-9 their last 80 in that situation. Anaheim player Ryan Getzlaf noted the importance of bouncing back with a strong defensive effort: "We've got to go back to work... We're a team that prides itself on not giving up so many shots. We didn??t respond the way we needed." Six of the last nine series meetings have fallen below the total and I expect another relatively low-scoring affair this evening. *Western Conf. TOY

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL

3* Nets

3* Wisc-Milw
1* Akron

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- U Mass
Millionaire- Idaho
No Limit- So Florida
Insiders- West Virginia
Perfect Play- Arkansas

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob
Wednesday NBA Opinion
Denver (-1) over PHILADELPHIA
Rotation #511 – 4:05 pm Pacific
Denver is a much better team when they’ve had at least one night off between games, and they are well rested for this game against a mediocre 76ers squad. Denver is now 123-65-1 ATS when rested and facing a team with a win percentage of less than .625 as long as they are not favored by more than 12 points, including 19-7-1 ATS this season. Denver has struggled against the top 5 teams in the league (Cleveland, Boston, Lakers, Orlando, and the Spurs (with all their stars)), but the Nuggets are an incredible 27-2 straight up after a night off against the other teams in the league with Chauncey Billups in the lineup. Their only two losses in those games was a 3 point home loss to Detroit and a 2 point loss at Houston in a game they covered as a 3 point dog. Philadelphia, however, is a better team without Elton Brand, who was not nearly as effective offensively as he was in past seasons (just 44.7% FG). The Sixers are 14-9 straight up and 14-8-1 ATS without Brand in the lineup and my ratings favor Denver by 2 ½ points using their games when rested against Philly’s games without Brand (and adjusting for the fact that Philly played last night). That’s still good enough line value to lean with Denver at -1, but I’ll pass on making the Nuggets a Best Bet.

Wednesday College Opinion
Utep (-7) over RICE
Rotation #579 – 5 pm Pacific
Rice has covered the spread in 4 consecutive games, but the Owls actually apply to a negative 48-113-2 ATS situation tonight. UTEP is 2-0 ATS as a road favorite this season, but I’ll resist making the Miners a Best Bet since my ratings only favor El Paso by 6.2 points. I’ll consider the Miners an opinion at -7 or -6 ½ and I’ll take UTEP in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

Best Bets for Wednesday.

Rotation #549 Houston (-4 1/2) 3-Stars at -6 or less, 2-Stars up to -7.
Rotation #595 SMU (+26 1/2) 3-Stars at +25 or more, 2-Stars down to +24

Opinions on Denver -1 in the NBA and UTEP -7 in college (2-Stars at -6 or less).


3 Star Selection
***Houston (-4 ½) over MARSHALL
04:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 549
Houston has had a tendency under coach Tom Penders to beat the teams that they are supposed to beat and they’ve been a good bet against lesser teams when not laying too many points. The Cougars are 17-4-1 ATS under Penders when facing a team with a win percentage of .500 or less and not laying more than 8 points, including 5-0 ATS this season. Marshall, meanwhile, is just 12-24 ATS in all games when not getting at least 12 points in two seasons under coach Donnie Jones, including 4-12 ATS this season. The Thundering Herd also apply to a negative 48-113-2 ATS situation and my ratings favor Houston by 7 points (8 points using conference games only). I’ll take Houston in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 ½ or -7 points.

3 Star Selection
***Smu (+26 ½) over MEMPHIS
05:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 595
Memphis is cruising along on a 16 game win streak and spread wins in 7 of their last 8 games. The one recent game that the Tigers didn’t cover the spread in was a 13 point win as a 17 point favorite at SMU and I think the Mustangs can hang within the number again tonight. SMU is 10-3 ATS under coach Matt Doherty as a dog of 14 points or more, including a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. In those 5 games as big underdogs this season, the Mustangs have lost by an average of just 9 points despite an average price of +17 points in those games – and none of the losses has been by more than 13 points. Memphis applies to a very negative 19-77-1 ATS big favorite letdown situation that has won for me all 5 times it has applied this season. My ratings favor SMU by just 23 ½ points using all games this season and by 25 points using conference games only. I’ll take SMU in a 3-Star Best Bet at +25 points or more and for 2-Stars at +24 ½ or +24 points.

Wednesday NBA Opinion
Denver (-1) over PHILADELPHIA
Rotation #511 – 4:05 pm Pacific
Denver is a much better team when they’ve had at least one night off between games, and they are well rested for this game against a mediocre 76ers squad. Denver is now 123-65-1 ATS when rested and facing a team with a win percentage of less than .625 as long as they are not favored by more than 12 points, including 19-7-1 ATS this season. Denver has struggled against the top 5 teams in the league (Cleveland, Boston, Lakers, Orlando, and the Spurs (with all their stars)), but the Nuggets are an incredible 27-2 straight up after a night off against the other teams in the league with Chauncey Billups in the lineup. Their only two losses in those games was a 3 point home loss to Detroit and a 2 point loss at Houston in a game they covered as a 3 point dog. Philadelphia, however, is a better team without Elton Brand, who was not nearly as effective offensively as he was in past seasons (just 44.7% FG). The Sixers are 14-9 straight up and 14-8-1 ATS without Brand in the lineup and my ratings favor Denver by 2 ½ points using their games when rested against Philly’s games without Brand (and adjusting for the fact that Philly played last night). That’s still good enough line value to lean with Denver at -1, but I’ll pass on making the Nuggets a Best Bet.

Wednesday College Opinion
Utep (-7) over RICE
Rotation #579 – 5 pm Pacific
Rice has covered the spread in 4 consecutive games, but the Owls actually apply to a negative 48-113-2 ATS situation tonight. UTEP is 2-0 ATS as a road favorite this season, but I’ll resist making the Miners a Best Bet since my ratings only favor El Paso by 6.2 points. I’ll consider the Miners an opinion at -7 or -6 ½ and I’ll take UTEP in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less.