2-20-09 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

02-20-2009, 02:42 PM

BURNS NBA

Basketball (NBA)

UNDER Rockets/Mavs

Game: Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets Game Time: 2/20/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Houston and Dallas to finish UNDER the total. What a difference a couple hundred miles can make! Including a high-scoring (112-102) affair back on 10/30, the 'over' is a 3-0 the last three times that these teams faced each other at Dallas and 9-4 the last 13 meetings there. However, the games played here at Houston have been a different story. Including a low-scoring (96-86) affair in mid-November, the UNDER is 4-1 the last five series meetings here at Houston. Note that those five games averaged only 179 combined points and that NONE of them finished with greater than 194. In other words, all five games would have fallen below tonight's generous number. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 11-3-2 the last 16 times that the Mavericks traveled to Houston. The Mavs exploded for 113 points last time out. However, that was against defensively- challenged New Jersey. In their previous game, facing a better defense (Boston) they managed only 92. In their most recent road game (at Utah) they managed a mere 87. The Rockets also faced New Jersey last game and also scored a lot (114) points. Note that they only managed 94 the previous game though and that was against Sacramento, one of the weaker defensive teams in the league. Additionally, note that the defense was very strong in both those games. The Rockets held the Nets to only 88 points and they limited the Kings to a mere 82. Including those results, the Rockets have held their last seven guests to 100 points or less. Looking back further and only four of the last 20 teams to travel here have topped the 100 point mark. All four of those teams (Lakers, Nuggets, Jazz, Warriors) rank in the top seven in the league in scoring, all of them above Dallas. The Mavs have seen the UNDER go 3-0 the last three times that they were listed as underdogs. They've also seen the UNDER go 9-4 the last 13 times that they played a road game with an over/under line in the 195 to 199.5 range. With Houston's divisional games averaging only 181.2 combined points, I feel that tonight's number is more than fair. *Blue Chip
CHARLOTTE

Game: Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Bobcats Game Time: 2/20/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats Reason: I'm taking the points with CHARLOTTE. The Bobcats come in playing with "double-revenge," having lost a pair of games vs. the Magic already this season. A closer look shows that Charlotte covered the spread in each of those games, most recently a 5-point overtime loss at Orlando on Tuesday. Both teams played the next day. The Magic got crushed at New Orleans. The Bobcats won and covered vs. the Pacers. While the Magic are now 0-3 ATS their last three games, the Bobcats are now 5-0 ATS their last five. The Bobcats have been getting healthier, recently getting back leading scorer Gerald Wallace. Note that Wallace had 25 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists last game, with coach Larry Brown commenting: "He was great tonight. Thank God we had him...." Conversely, the loss of Jameer Nelson has been negatively affecting some of the other Orlando stars. While Howard continues to put up big stats, Turkoglu and Lewis have struggled since Nelson went down. Since the injury, Turkoglu is averaging 14.3 points on 35.6 percent shooting, while Lewis is averaging 13.8 points and shooting 36.5 percent. The recent addition of Rafer Alston should prove to be a big help. However, there could easily be a bit of an adjustment period, as the veteran guard hasn't played here before. The Bobcats survived a monster game from Howard and still nearly beat the Magic at Orlando on Tuesday. It's true that the Magic have been an excellent road team - although it should be noted that their home record is better than their road mark. However, it's also true that the Bobcats are typically much better here at home. Indeed, they're 6-18 on the road but 16-14 at home, going a profitable 18-12 ATS. The Bobcats are also 25-15 ATS as underdogs. Additionally, they're an outstanding 10-1 ATS in divisional games. Desperately fighting to get back in the playoff picture, I look for them on those numbers this evening. *Annhilator
ROCKETS

Game: Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets Game Time: 2/20/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Houston Rockets Reason: I'm laying the small number with HOUSTON. Knowing that Tracy McGrady is out for the season, many will grab the points with the Mavericks here. I believe that will prove costly for them though. The Rockets have proven to be more than capable of winning without McGrady, going 13-6 on the season when he hasn't been in the lineup. The Rockets have also been red hot at home. Indeed, they've won five straight at the Toyota Center, and 17 of their last 20 here. On the other hand, the Mavs lost their last road game by 28 points and are a mediocre 14-13 away from Dallas on the season. While Houston is outscoring teams by a 100.4 to 92.3 margin at home, Dallas is being outscored by a 99.6 to 98.9 count on the road. The Mavs did win here back in November. However, the Rockets didn't have Yao Ming in the lineup for that game. The Rockets won by double-digits at Dallas in the game Yao played with the Chinese star delivering a 30 point and 13 rebound performance. Including that impressive effort, Yao is averaging 27.3 points and 13.3 boards in his last four games vs. Dallas. Note that Yao will be in the lineup tonight and that he's coming off another double-double, hauling in 12 rebounds and contributing 22 points vs. New Jersey. Look for the "new look" Rockets, 83-32 at home the past few seasons, to come away with the important win and cover, continuing their excellent homecourt play. *Blowout GOW

Mr. IWS

02-20-2009, 02:43 PM

BURNS NCAA

Basketball (NCAA)

NIAGARA

Game: Illinois State vs. Niagara Game Time: 2/20/2009 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Niagara Reason: I'm laying the small number with NIAGARA. Illinois-State has been on quite the run lately. With five wins in six games, including three straight, the Redbirds have gotten all the way back into contention in the Missouri Valley Conference. With an 11-5 conference record, the Redbirds currently sit in third place, right behind Creighton and Northern Iowa, both at 12-4. That's precisely what makes this an extremely difficult scheduling spot for the Redbirds. Off all those important conference victories, they now have their two biggest games of the year, vs. Creighton and Northern Iowa, on deck. I feel that it will be very easy for them to look past Niagara and ahead to those games. While the Purple Eagles, #2 in the MAAC, also face the top team (Siena) from their conference in their next game, they have no chance of catching the Saints for the top spot, so that game arguably isn't as important as the Redbirds' next two games. I feel that the Purple Eagles, who have won an impressive 21 games, will be highly motivated to knock off a team from the MVC. Even Calvin Murphy, the greatest Purple Eagle of all time, is expected to be on hand for the big event. The Purple Eagles are 16-8 ATS as favorites. They're also an impressive 10-2 ATS in non-conference games. They're outscoring opponents by a 78-64 margin on this floor and I look for them to deliver another solid win and cover this evening. *BracketBuster Blowout