2-23-09

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang Monday

25-Dime Louisville



FREE - Kansas

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NCAA

Basketball (NCAA)

GEORGETOWN

Game: Louisville vs. Georgetown Game Time: 2/23/2009 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Georgetown Reason: I'm taking the points with GEORGETOWN. As you're probably aware, Louisville has the higher ranking and is also currently the much "hotter" team. However, everyone else is aware of the same thing and as result, I believe that we're getting excellent value with what should be an absolutely desperate Georgetown squad. Despite the recent struggles, the Hoyas are more talented than many believe. Keep in mind that they crushed Maryland (Terps are 17-9 and just beat UNC) by 27 points earlier in the year and followed that up by knocking off highly ranked Memphis, which is now 24-3. While those were both non-conference victories, the Hoyas also won outright at Connecticut in conference play. They did beat both Providence and Syracuse here, while also recently taking the Orange to overtime on the road. That said, this is their last chance for a "signature victory" in conference play on their homecourt. That's because their next two games are on the road and their final home game comes vs. lowly Depaul. A win here would really go a long way. The Cardinals are not to be taken lightly and the Hoyas are going to need to be at their best to beat them. However, they are beatable, having lost two games by double-digits already this month. That includes a 90-57 defeat vs. a talented but struggling Notre Dame team, a game also featured on ESPN. I had the Irish in that game and I feel that the Hoyas will also seize the opportunity to get back on track by beating a top tier team in front of the national audience. *Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NBA

Basketball (NBA)

SACRAMENTO

Game: New Orleans Hornets vs. Sacramento Kings Game Time: 2/23/2009 10:05:00 PM Prediction: Sacramento Kings Reason: I'm taking the points with SACRAMENTO. The Hornets have the much better record on the season. However, its the Kings who have been the more profitable team in recent days. With Saturday's blowout loss at Utah, the Hornets are now a poor 4-8 ATS their last dozen games, going 2-4 ATS their last six. They're also just 1-5 SU/ATS their last six on the road. Conversely, the Kings have managed to go 4-2 ATS their last six games. Looking at their last six home games and we find that only one of them resulted in a loss of greater than seven points. The Kings have always given the Hornets problems. Listed as double-digit underdogs, they traveled to New Orleans back in November and scored the outright upset. The following month, in another game at New Orleans, they lost but covered. The fact that the Kings have given the Hornets some trouble this season isn't all that surprising. Sacramento scores a lot of points (99.3 per game overall and 101 here at home) and New Orleans has struggled against high-scoring teams. In fact, the Hornets are just 8-14 ATS (9-13 SU!) in 22 games against teams which average 99 or more points. Looking at the games in this series played here at Sacramento and we find the Kings at a profitable 16-2 SU and 13-4-1 ATS in 18 meetings, dating back to 1994. Note that the Hornets' only two victories during that stretch both came by seven points or less. Since relocation to New Orleans, the Hornets have traveled to Sacramento nine times. The Kings were 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in those games. The Kings, 13-9 ATS off a double-digit loss, are 11-3-2 ATS (13-3 SU!) the last 16 times that they played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 200 to 204.5. They're also an excellent 18-8 ATS the last 26 times that they were underdogs in the 6.5 to nine point range. I expect the Kings, who have now had some time to adjust to their new players, to improve on those stats and continue their homecourt success in this series.
ATLANTA

Game: Atlanta Hawks vs. Utah Jazz Game Time: 2/23/2009 9:05:00 PM Prediction: Atlanta Hawks Reason: I'm taking the points with ATLANTA. Off four straight impressive home wins, the majority of the betting public will be quick to back Utah again tonight. However, the Jazz haven't always been that profitable under coach Jerry Sloan in the later games of an extended homestand and I expect them to have their hands full. Saturday's cover vs. New Orleans notwithstanding, the Jazz are still just 5-12 ATS the last few seasons after having played three or more consecutive home games. Looking back further and we find the Jazz at a money-burning 49-71-1 ATS their last 121 in that situation. Saturday's game was a good spot for the Jazz. That's because they were catching New Orleans off an overtime game vs. the Lakers the previous day. That was a very tough loss for the Hornets, as they should have wrapped it up in regulation. However, the Jazz won't have that luxury tonight, as Atlanta hasn't played since Friday. I also believe that the Jazz could be ripe for an emotional letdown, due to the recent death of team owner Larry Miller. The game vs. the Hornets was the first since Miller's passing and naturally, there were a lot of emotions. Give the Jazz credit for responding with a victory. However, I believe that doing it twice in a row will prove to be much more difficult. Sloan had this to say of the last game: "Sometimes emanations and everything get involved and everybody handles it a little differently. We made it through a tough time today..." The Hawks have admittedly had some real trouble vs. the Jazz in the past and it's true that they haven't won here at Utah for ages. However, they covered the spread in their last visit here, a six point loss exactly one year ago - Feb. 23rd, 2008. They had also defeated the Jazz (at Atlanta) in their previous meeting, which had snapped a long losing streak in the series. In other words, the gap between the teams isn't nearly what it once was. Indeed, despite dealing with some key injuries, the Hawks are comfortably in fourth in the East. They've now gotten healthier and they bring an almost identical overall record into tonight's game as Utah does. This year's Hawks have been excellent in the underdog role. Despite recent pointspread losses at Portland and LA, they're still a profitable 16-8 ATS when getting points. That includes a profitable 6-1 ATS mark as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 point range. I expect them to deliver a huge effort and earn at least another cover this evening. *Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

Root has 2 "TV Games" tonite, no member plays...

GTown
Oklahomie

[Mr. IWS]

TITLE: Larry Ness' 7* Eastern Conf GOW (68.8% run)

REASON FOR PICK: The Pacers have decided to sit Danny Granger (25.0) for two-to-three weeks and they also announced on Friday that swingman Mike Dunleavy, who had a career year last season (19.1-5.2-3.5), will be out indefinitely due to recurring soreness in his right knee. Dunleavy missed the first 34 games of the season with the injury and returned to play 18 games, averaging 15.1 PPG. That leaves Indiana quite short-handed as they try to follow yesterday's 98-91 home win over the Bulls with a win tonight in MSG vs the Knicks. Point guards TJ Ford (14.9-5.1 APG) and Jarrett Jack (11.3-3.8 APG) were both in yesterday's starting lineup along with Daniels (13.6), Murphy (13.4-11.5) and rookie center Hibbert (6.1-2.8). Murphy led the Pacers with 27-14 in Sunday's win but Indiana will face a team tonight (the Knicks), which all of a sudden, has an abundance of players. Harrington (21.2-9.7) has thrived in his 42 games with the team, while power forward Lee (16.5-11.9) and 5-9 guard Nate Robinson (16.3-4.1-3.9) are having career years. Chandler has upped his scoring average from 7.3 PPG as a rookie to 13.9 this year, while Duhon (signed as a FA from the Bulls) is averaging 12.5 PPG and 7.9 APG. D'Antoni also has Richardson (10.7), who is a proven scorer in this league, 6-10 rookie Gallinari (6.1) and Jared Jeffries (4.8-4.2). In some recent trades, the Knicks have added power forward Wilcox (13.4-7.4 the last two years with the Sonics) and guard Larry Hughes, who has a career averages of 14.7-4.4-3.2 (now in his 11th season). The Knicks just may 'sneak' into that final playoff spot in the East. The Pacers are a terrible road team, having lost 10 straight (3-6-1 ATS) away from home, before winning at Minnesota on Feb 20. They are 7-23 SU away from home this year, allowing 108.7 PPG. Meanwhile, the Knicks are a solid 16-12 SU and 17-1 ATS at home, averaging 108.2 PPG. Eastern Conf GOW on NY Knicks -7 (7*).

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB

3 Star Selection
***New Orleans (-8 ½) over SACRAMENTO

Sacramento is officially the worst team in the NBA now that they’ve traded away Brad Miller, as the Kings are a couple of points worse in 14 games this season without Miller than they’ve been overall. I doubt that New Orleans will show the struggling host any mercy given the Hornets’ consecutive losses at the Lakers (in overtime) and the next night in Utah (an 88-102 loss). New Orleans is 25-11-1 ATS following consecutive losses and they’re also 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games following a double-digit road loss and 32-14 ATS the last two seasons as a favorite after a pointspread loss. In other words, the Hornets generally bounce-back from bad performances and I don’t see the Kings competing in this game against a focused Hornets’ team. In addition to the favorable team trends, New Orleans also applies to a very strong 72-17-1 ATS bounce-back situation that is a perfect 3-0 ATS for me this season. The Kings are just 4-11-1 ATS this season as a home underdog or pick and my ratings favor the Hornets by 9 ½ points, so there is a bit of line value on our side as well. I’ll take New Orleans in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 ½ points

[Mr. IWS]

PPP
3 jazz
3 golden state