2-25-09

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang Wednesday ...

20-Dime Hofstra



5-Dime James Madison



5-Dime Marquette



FREE - Central Florida

[Mr. IWS]

BURN"S NBA

Basketball (NBA)

UNDER sacramento/charlotte

Game: Charlotte Bobcats vs. Sacramento Kings Game Time: 2/25/2009 10:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Sacramento and Charlotte to finish UNDER the total. The Bobcats, who allow the sixth fewest points in the league, played their fourth straight 'under' yesterday, holding the high-flying Suns to "only" 112 points. While the Bobcats did score 102 points in that game, they only managed 78 and 80 in their previous two games and they're the lowest-scoring team in the entire NBA. Of course, Sacramento games have been much higher-scoring. However, the Kings are currently adjusting to some lineup changes and some of those changes should help them become somewhat of a stronger defensive team. Even with their last game finishing above the number, they've still seen the UNDER go 3-2 their last five. The Bobcats have seen the UNDER go 8-5 when playing the second of back to back games. They've also seen the UNDER go 7-3 after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game. Additionally, we find the UNDER at 2-0 when they've played a road game with an over/under line ranging from 200 to 204.5. Look for the Bobcats to continue their low-scoring ways for another day, as this evening's final combined score also proves lower-scoring than most are expecting. *Blue Chip
WIZARDS

[Mr. IWS]

BURN"S NCAA

Basketball (NCAA)

DAVIDSON

Game: NC Greensbo vs. Davidson Game Time: 2/25/2009 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Davidson Reason: I'm laying the points with DAVIDSON. I played against the Wildcats a couple of times earlier in the season, including their blowout loss at Purdue. At the time, I felt Davidson had become over-rated and over-valued. This was largely due to the public's love and knowledge of Stephen Curry. After all, how many other players does the general betting public know from the Southern Conference. Additionally, the Wildcats got off to a quick start, from an ATS perspective, including a big cover vs. Oklahoma. That quickly reminded everyone of what they'd done in last year's tournament and many were quick to jump on board. The Wildcats have been nothing special at the betting window since that point though. For the season, they've gone just 9-12-1 ATS as favorites and 12-13-1 ATS overall. That includes three straight pointspread losses, the last two of them both coming in SU fashion. That's caused many of the early season bandwagon riders to abandon ship and kept tonight's line somewhat more reasonable than it would have been otherwise. That may sound strange to say about a line which is this high. However, keep in mind that they were laying 29 points vs. Furman (they won by 40) less than a month ago and Furman is a team which is ahead of N.C. Greensboro in the standings and which won the lone between those teams this season. In other words, tonight's line could have easily been even higher than it currently is. Its true that Stephen Curry struggled in the loss vs. Butler. However, he's had more time to recover from his injury and the Spartans' defense isn't even close to what Butler brings to the table. Indeed, they allow 76.5 points per game on the road and this is by far the toughest venue in the conference. The Spartans have lost five straight, including a 69-56 home loss to Western Carolina last time out. That could have been even worse as they were down 19 at half and 54-31 with 13:53 left. Keep in mind that Davidson beat Western Carolina by 24. In their previous game, also playing at home, the Spartans lost vs. Appalachian State - Davidson faced Appalachian State on the road and won by 18. Looking at the earlier meeting and we find the Wildcats won by 21. That was at Greensboro though while tonight's game is at Davidson. When these teams played here last year, the Wildcats won by 30. Making matters worse for North Carolina-Greensboro, the Wildcats come in angry. They don't lose back to back games very often and they'll be looking to take out their frustrations by wiping the floor with the lowly Spartans. The Wildcats are 24-17-1 ATS the last 42 times that they were home favorites of greater than a dozen points. That includes a 3-1 ATS mark as home favorites in the 24.5 to 30 range. Excluding pushes, the Wildcats are a highly profitable 103-61 ATS their last 164 lined conference games. During that stretch, they've also gone 5-2 ATS when failing to cover the spread in their previous three lined games. The Wildcats have dominated the Spartans the past several seasons and I look for them to bounce back with a convincing win and cover. *Blowout GOY

[Mr. IWS]

BURN"S HOCKEY

Hockey (NHL)

RANGERS

Game: New York Rangers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Game Time: 2/25/2009 7:35:00 PM Prediction: New York Rangers Reason: I'm playing on the NEW YORK RANGERS. These teams just faced each other at Madison Square Garden a couple of nights ago. The Leafs won that game by a score of 3-2, in overtime. However, a closer look shows that the Rangers had a commanding 29-9 advantage in shots on goal through the second and third periods and a 38-24 edge overall. Rangers captain Chris Drury said of the defeat: "It was a tough loss. Toskala was playing well. We couldn't get anything by him. A couple of mistakes, and we lost in OT." After that game, (former) coach Tom Renney had this to say: "We played hard. We outshot this team significantly..." Evidently, "playing hard" wasn't enough, as Renney has seen been fired. That should prove to be a positive, at least in the short-term, as the team needed a spark and was underachieving under Renney. Playing with immediate "revenge," desperately trying to earn points and playing their first game under new coach John Tortorella, I expect the Rangers to respond with a massive effort. Even with Sunday's victory, the Leafs are a dozen points behind the eighth place team in the East. Additionally, both the ninth and 10th place teams are comfortably ahead of them. In other words, they won't be making the playoffs. Note that Toronto is a money-burning 2-11 (-9.8) on the season, when playing with two day's rest in between games. Conversely, the Rangers are right in the thick of the race, meaning every game is extremely important. While they lost here in November, the Rangers have still won four of their last six visits to Toronto. Its also worth noting that the Rangers are a profitable 28-18 (+9.4) the past few seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. Look for them to drop the puck on the "new era" by earning a much-needed two points. *Eastern Conf. GOM

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Rhode Island
Millionaire- Marquette
No Limit- NY Knicks
Billionaire- Colorado
Perfect Play- Maryland

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL

3* Towson
1* Dallas
1* Evansville
1* Auburn
1* Rutgers
1 * Utah Utes

[Mr. IWS]

DRBOB Opinions, he has 5 best bets


Wednesday NBA Opinion
Orlando (-3) over NEW YORK
Rotation #507 – 4:35 pm Pacific
Orlando clearly hasn’t been as good in 14 games this season without All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson, but the Magic continue to play well after a loss. Orlando is 35-13 ATS after a loss in two seasons under coach Stan Van Gundy, including 4-1 ATS this season without Nelson in the lineup. Orlando also applies to a general 70-25-1 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation. Unfortunately, my ratings only favor the Magic by 1 ½ points with Nelson out, so I’ll just lean with Orlando in this game. I’d take Orlando in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 points or less.

Wednesday College Opinions/Possible Best Bet
William & Mary (+12) over OLD DOMINION
Rotation #531 – 4 pm Pacific
William & Mary is just 2-8 ATS as a road underdog this season, but Old Dominion is only 7-22-1 ATS as a conference home favorite following a game in which they won and covered, including 0-7 ATS the last 2 seasons. ODU also applies to a very negative 7-54-3 ATS last home game situation. My ratings favor Old Dominion by 12 ½ points and I was hoping to get 13 points here. I’ll lean with the Tribe at +12 or +12 ½ points and I’ll take William & Mary in a 2-Star Best Bet at +13 points or more.

MARQUETTE (-1 ½) over Connecticut
Rotation #554 – 4 pm Pacific
Marquette is 16-0 straight up at home, including impressive wins over Villanova and West Virginia, and the Eagles apply to a solid 168-86-9 ATS late season home team situation against a U Conn squad that is 0-3 ATS without the services of guard Jerome Dyson (13.2 ppg, 3.2 apg, and 1.8 steals). My ratings make this game a pick without adjusting for Dyson being out and Marquette by 1 or 1 ½ points is a fair line. I also think U Conn’s ability to block shots (7.6 per game) won’t have as much effect on a Marquette team that doesn’t depend on scoring in the paint. I’ll lean with the Eagles at -1 ½ or -2 points and I’d take Marquette in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

5 Best Bets for Wednesday.

Rotation #519 charlotte (-3) 3-Stars at -4 or less, 2-Stars at -4 1/2.
Rotation #526 James Madison (+3) 2-Stars at +3 or more.
Rotation #533 St. Louis (pick) 3-Stars at -1 or better, 2-Stars up to -2.
Rotation #573 Villanova (-13) 3-Stars at -13 or less, 2-Stars up to -14.
Rotation #593 Texas Tech (+14 1/2) 2-Stars at +14 or more, 3-Stars at +15.

Marquette (-1 1/2) would be a 2-Star at -1 or better.


3 Star Selection
***Charlotte (-3) over SACRAMENTO
07:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 519
The Bobcats are an average team with Raja Bell and leading scorer Gerald Wallace both in the lineup (10-11 straight up in 21 games and 0.5 points worse than an average team in my ratings) and an average team shouldn’t have any problem taking out their frustrations against the lowly Kings. Charlotte is coming off 3 consecutive losses as underdogs to Orlando, at Houston and at Phoenix last night, but the Bobcats apply to a very strong 72-18-1 ATS road bounce-back situation tonight and they are 6-2 ATS this season the night after a loss. Sacramento, meanwhile, is just 2-18 straight up this season at home against a team with a win percentage of greater than .333 and they are 2-11-1 ATS in those games when not getting at least 7 points. My ratings favor Charlotte by 4 ½ points after adjusting for their lack of rest and I’ll take Charlotte in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 or less and for 2-Stars at -4 ½ points.

2 Star Selection
**JAMES MADISON (+3) over Virginia Commonwealth
04:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 526
James Madison has been an underrated team most of the season, as the Dukes are 15-4-1 ATS since stud F Juwann James returned from injury in mid-December and they even covered a few games when he was out of the lineup for 4 ½ more games recently. JMU is still being priced based on all their games this season, not just the games in which James has played, as my ratings using all games for both teams would favor VCU by 2 ½ points. However, using only the games with James playing would yield a fair line of JMU by ½ a point. The Dukes will be without starting point guard Devon Moore for a second straight game and his offense will be missed (50% FG), but Moore is not worth more than a point or 1 ½ points and I’d favor VCU by just 1 point. James Madison applies to a solid 59-28-2 ATS last home game situation and I’ll take James Madison in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.

3 Star Selection
***St. Louis (pick) over ST. BONAVENUTRE
04:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 533
St. Louis has covered the spread in 8 consecutive games and I see that streak continuing tonight, as the Billikens apply to a 41-6-2 ATS subset of a 112-51-3 ATS road momentum situation. St. Bonaventure has never been very good at home (24-54-2 ATS in their last 80 lined home games) and the Bonnies are just 7-12 ATS at home under coach Mark Schmidt. My ratings favor St. Louis by 2 points and I’ll take St. Louis in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars at -1 ½ or -2 points.

3 Star Selection
***Villanova (-13) over DePAUL
05:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 573
DePaul has lost their last 7 games by 15 points or more and the Blue Demons are a horrendous 3-18 ATS at home the last two seasons, including 12 consecutive spread losses. DePaul’s most recent 4 home games were losses by margins of 23 points to Seton Hall, 23 points to Pitt, 15 points to Marquette, and 22 points to U Conn. Villanova is 4-1 ATS as a road favorite this season and my ratings favor the Wildcats by 14 ½ points in this game and by 19 points if I used conference games only. DePaul doesn’t match-up well with Villanova either, as the Wildcats’ defense forces teams to shoot 3-pointers (23 per game) while shutting down the interior. DePaul is a horrible shooting team that has made just 28% of their 3-pointers so the Blue Demons are not going to be able to take advantage of the only open shots that they’re get from Villanova. DePaul also applies to a negative 58-118-3 ATS situation that plays against bad teams at home. I’ll take Villanova in a 3-Star Best Bet at -13 or less and for 2-Stars at -13 ½ or -14.

2 Star Selection
**Texas Tech (+14 ½) over TEXAS
06:30 PM Pacific - Rotation 593
Texas Tech is 0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games and there head coach Pat Knight has been suspended for this game. That could be good news, as I don’t think Knight is a very good coach, and the Red Raiders apply to a 23-2-1 ATS subset of a 50-15-1 ATS big road underdog situation that plays on teams on a straight up and spread losing streak. Texas, meanwhile, applies to a very negative 0-24-3 ATS subset of a 42-103-3 ATS big favorite letdown situation that in part deals with the fact that the Longhorns already beat Texas Tech earlier in the season. I can certainly envision a letdown by the Horns here after just beating #2 Oklahoma and having already beaten Tech by 22 points on the road. Texas hasn’t been very good as a big favorite under coach Barnes (25-31-2 ATS as favorite of more than 13 points) considering how good Barnes’ teams have been when not favored by more than 13 points (143-113-6 ATS). Texas is just 3-18 ATS as a favorite of more than 13 points against a team with a win percentage of greater than .333 that is coming off a loss, so the Red Raiders’ losing streak will make it tough for Barnes to get his team fired up for this rematch. Texas Tech, meanwhile, while just 6-14 ATS overall this season, is 3-1 ATS as a road dog of 12 points or more. My ratings favor Texas by 14 ½ points and I’ll take Texas Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more and for 3-Stars at +15 or more.

Wednesday NBA Opinion
Orlando (-3) over NEW YORK
Rotation #507 – 4:35 pm Pacific
Orlando clearly hasn’t been as good in 14 games this season without All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson, but the Magic continue to play well after a loss. Orlando is 35-13 ATS after a loss in two seasons under coach Stan Van Gundy, including 4-1 ATS this season without Nelson in the lineup. Orlando also applies to a general 70-25-1 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation. Unfortunately, my ratings only favor the Magic by 1 ½ points with Nelson out, so I’ll just lean with Orlando in this game. I’d take Orlando in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 points or less.

Wednesday College Opinions/Possible Best Bet
William & Mary (+12) over OLD DOMINION
Rotation #531 – 4 pm Pacific
William & Mary is just 2-8 ATS as a road underdog this season, but Old Dominion is only 7-22-1 ATS as a conference home favorite following a game in which they won and covered, including 0-7 ATS the last 2 seasons. ODU also applies to a very negative 7-54-3 ATS last home game situation. My ratings favor Old Dominion by 12 ½ points and I was hoping to get 13 points here. I’ll lean with the Tribe at +12 or +12 ½ points and I’ll take William & Mary in a 2-Star Best Bet at +13 points or more.

MARQUETTE (-1 ½) over Connecticut
Rotation #554 – 4 pm Pacific
Marquette is 16-0 straight up at home, including impressive wins over Villanova and West Virginia, and the Eagles apply to a solid 168-86-9 ATS late season home team situation against a U Conn squad that is 0-3 ATS without the services of guard Jerome Dyson (13.2 ppg, 3.2 apg, and 1.8 steals). My ratings make this game a pick without adjusting for Dyson being out and Marquette by 1 or 1 ½ points is a fair line. I also think U Conn’s ability to block shots (7.6 per game) won’t have as much effect on a Marquette team that doesn’t depend on scoring in the paint. I’ll lean with the Eagles at -1 ½ or -2 points and I’d take Marquette in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.