2-26-09

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang went 0-3 yesterday
Thursday
10-Dime Arizona



10-Dime Cal Irvine



10-Dime Weber State



FREE - UAB

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NCAA

Basketball (NCAA)

ST JOSEPHS

Game: Xavier vs. St. Josephs Game Time: 2/26/2009 7:00:00 PM Prediction: St. Josephs Reason: I'm taking the points with ST. JOSEPHS. The Musketeers remain an excellent program. However, with three losses (all on the road) in their last five games, they're currently not clicking the way that they were earlier in the season. Coach Sean Miller noted: "...Clearly we've hit a couple of bumps in the road." The Hawks have also been struggling, as they've lost four straight. However, a closer look shows that three of the losses each came by only two point (the other was by 7) which is noteworthy, as we're getting more than that to work with here. Prior to that, the Hawks had won nine of their previous 10 games, so it's not like they aren't capable of winning. The Hawks are 4-1 SU/ATS the last five times that they had failed to cover three or more consecutive games. They've beaten Xavier in two of the last three meetings and the lone loss was by four points. I expect another game which comes down to the wire and am taking the points. *Annihilator
CINCINNATI

Game: West Virginia vs. Cincinnati Game Time: 2/26/2009 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Cincinnati Reason: I'm taking the points with CINCINNATI. The Bearcats weren't happy with their last effort: Coach Mick Cronin, who emphasizes rebounding and physical play, had this to say: "Obviously, we got dominated on the defensive glass; that's the story of the game. We lost the effort-related statistics. We got physically outmanned. Other than that, not much to talk about. We just got pushed around." I expect the Bearcats, who have been excellent at home, to respond to their coach's criticism by bouncing back with a massive effort. Cincy is 13-4 at home on the season, outscoring opponents by an impressive 76.2 to 64.6 margin. That includes wins over the likes of UAB, Mississippi State, Notre Dame and Georgetown. Even with the loss to Louisville, the Bearcats are still a profitable 7-4 ATS their last 11 games. The Bearcats are also 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were home underdogs in the 3.5 to six range. During the same stretch, the Mountaineers were just 2-8 ATS as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Look for more of the same here, as the Bearcats bounce back and earn at least another cover. *Best Bet
UAB

Game: Memphis vs. UAB Game Time: 2/26/2009 9:00:00 PM Prediction: UAB Reason: I'm taking the points with UAB. I successfully played against the Tigers in their last game. That was at UTEP. The Tigers won but were given a tougher test than most expected and failed to cover, what I felt was an inflated pointspread. Tonight, they face an even tougher opponent at an even more difficult venue. Once again, I feel that they are over-valued. In fact, I expect their well- documented conference winning streak to finally come to an end. You may recall the Tigers' last visit here. Memphis went on a 9-1 run over the final 1:23 and won 79-78. While the Blazers easily covered, they weren't happy with the loss. Words were exchanged and tempers flared. Not surprisingly, these teams don't like each other. UAB guard Robert Vaden had this to say: "When we're on the court, I've known and played against those guys. There's going to be some bad blood.... On the court, there's no friends between Memphis and UAB." Last year's 1-point loss was UAB's only loss here in quite some time. In fact, the Blazers are a perfect 12-0 at home on the season and 26-1 their last 27 here. Look for the revenge-minded Blazers to give their guests all they can handle once again, improving to 9-1 ATS the last 10 times that they played a home game with an over/under line in the 130s. *Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NBA

Basketball (NBA)

HOUSTON

Game: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Houston Rockets Game Time: 2/26/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Houston Rockets Reason: I'm taking the points with HOUSTON. The Cavaliers are having an excellent season and they've got a great shot at winning the East. That said, they haven't been nearly as strong on the road as they have been at home and I expect them to get "upset" at this evening's extremely difficult venue. Both teams have won five in a row overall. The Rockets have also won eight straight here at home though. Despite failing to cover by half a point last time out, they were still 5-2-1 ATS during that stretch. The Cavs, on the other hand, are 4-4 ATS their last eight on the road and 6-9 ATS their last 15. It's true that the Rockets are without McGrady and also that they're dealing with some new faces in the lineup. However, that has yet to slow them down. In fact, they've actually been scoring more points without T-Mac in the lineup. That's led to them going 7-1 the last eight games without him in the lineup and 16-6 without him for the season. Without McGrady, Artest has been playing a bigger role and he's thrived since doing so. Despite the fact that the Rockets have won 20 of their last 23 games here, we're even being given a couple of extra points to work with. While the points aren't likely to come into play here, it's still worth mentioning that two of Houston's last three losses here have come by only two points - the other came by only five, vs. the Lakers. The Rockets have dominated this series over the years, even in the Lebron era. While they did lose at Cleveland just before Christmas, they're 17-3 the last 20 times that they hosted the Cavs. They're also 55-37 SU the last 92 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier loss. *TNT GOM

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS HOCKEY

Hockey (NHL)

RANGERS

Game: Florida Panthers vs. New York Rangers Game Time: 2/26/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: New York Rangers Reason: I'm laying the small price with the NEW YORK RANGERS. I lost with the Rangers yesterday. However, I'm not going to let that stop me from backing them again this evening. Despite coming up short yesterday (lost in a shootout) the Rangers really played hard yesterday and finished with a significant (30-20) edge on shots. Yes, the Rangers playing the second of back to back games, which has been factored into the line, providing us with much better value. That shouldn't be overly concerning though as a closer look reveals that they're 3-1 on the season, when playing a home game, after having played the previous day. The lone loss in that situation came vs. Toronto on 2/22, a game which the Rangers also dominated. Looking at the series history between these teams and we find that the Rangers are 7-2 the last nine times that the teams met here at New York. The line was a minimum of -165 for eight of those games, including -230 when the teams met here earlier this season. Tonight's line is much "cheaper," which I feel is providing us with strong value. The Rangers are 11-5 (+3.8) this season after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. Looking back further and we find them at 33-19 (+8.8) their last 52 in that situation. Look for them to bounce back, earn an important two points and get their new coach his first victory. *Personal Favorite

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer's 25* CBB CONF SHOCKER G.O.M.! *9-2, 82% Run!

I'm taking the points with UAB on Thursday. Mike Davis has the Blazers playing outstanding basketball and on the fringe of a "Big Dance" berth. The Blazers came within one-point of knocking-off last year's national runner-up team in Birmingham, and they played pretty well against the Tigers in this season's meeting in Memphis. UAB was within three points at halftime, and within five points with just over one minute to play, but eventually fell by 13-points. The Tigers have won 54-straight Conference-USA contests. The last loss came against UAB in 2006. The Blazers guard home-court well, going 12-0 SU this season, winning by an average score of 77-58. They are actually on a 26-1 run at Bartow Arena, with their only loss coming in that one-point defeat to Memphis mentioned above. They'll welcome a Memphis team that has not shot all that well away from home. They're hitting about 43% from the field, average only six made treys on 18 attempts per game, and connect on just over 64% of their free throw attempts. Meanwhile, UAB has held their first dozen "guests" to 39% shooting. And they force a lot of turnovers...15 per game to be exact, while allowing just 9 assists per game. I really admire the focus UAB displayed on Saturday against Southern Miss. They beat the Eagles by 30-points in what could have been an easy "look-ahead" situation. Instead, they were all about the task at hand. I expect their player and coaching leadership to come through again tonight. Robert Vaden and his teammates know they can handle Memphis. Tonight, I believe they will. I'm taking the points with UAB, my Conf-USA Shocker. Thanks! GL! Scott



Scott Spreitzer's CBB MEGA-MISMATCH THURS BLOWOUT! *75% ATS!

I'm laying the points with UCLA over Stanford. I have been saying that the Cardinal are an overrated squad since day-one this season and it looks as though reality has caught up to them. The Cardinal have lost three in a row and seven of their last nine. And one of the those two wins came against lowly CSU-Bakersfield. Some will look for Stanford to get revenge tonight for a 34-point annihilation at the hands of the Bruins just last month. But UCLA is fuming mad after dropping one to Washington State last time out. In fact, Ben Howland has challenged his team's toughness after losing three of their last four. Even center Alfred Aboya said the team hasn't always played with a sense of urgency, lately. The Bruins were scorched by Wazzu last time out. The Cougars hit 59% from the field and beat UCLA by a point. That's an important stat because Ben Howland teams, normally strong on the defensive end, have almost always brought their "A-game" following a poor performance. His teams are 12-3, 80% ATS following a game where they allowed at least 55% shooting to their opponent. Howland cited his team's lack of intensity on the defensive end, not to mention a letdown after knocking off Washington. I expect his troops to refocus tonight against a team that doesn't matchup well with the Bruins. UCLA has also been "money" away from home under Howland, going 40-22 ATS. Expect the two "tech trends" to continue in favor of UCLA on Thursday. I'm laying the points with the Bruins. Thanks! GL! Scott.



Scott Spreitzer's 20* CBB ULTIMATE KNOCKOUT! *67% in '09!

I'm laying the points with Illinois on Thursday night. Talk about a "circle the calendar" game! This one takes the cake. Not only are the Illini in revenge tonight against the poor traveling Gophers, but they were humiliated by them in this season's first meeting. Minnesota took Illinois "behind the woodshed" in a 59-36 whipping. Now Illinois returns home off a fantastic shooting night in a win on the road over Ohio State. That win came off a poor shooting night against Penn State in Champaign. In fact, this will be Illinois' first home game since scoring just 33-points in the loss to the Nittany Lions. They're hosting a team they have handled on a regular basis at home. Minnesota has won in Champaign just twice in 31-years! I had the Gophers in their 27-point win last time out, but now they face an Illini team that's 14-2 at home this season where they hold the opposition to just 52.4 ppg on a stingy 37.9% shooting. In fact, the Illini allow just 27% from area code three on their home floor. This is a place where the Illini also distribute the ball well, averaging 18 apg, while allowing just 10 apg to their "guests" and forcing 16 tpg. That's more bad news for a Minnesota team that averages four more turnovers per game than assists. The Illini are a perfect 3-0, 100% at home this season laying points in a price range that includes tonight's number. Minnesota has covered just 2 of their last 10 overall, and 15 of their last 43 as an underdog. Add it up and we have sweet revenge with Illinois. I'm laying the points with the Illini on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott
__________________

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- USC
Millionaire- Arizona St
MoneyMaker- UAB
Insiders- Washington State
Billionaire- Michigan

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL'S FULL SERVICE CLIENTS
thursday
At 9 pm, our College Basketball High Roller is on the Michigan Wolverines plus the points over Purdue. Earlier this year, U-M lost to the Boilers in West Lafayette, but now fall into some of my best same-season revenge angles (with records of 39-13 and 31-6 ATS). Also, Michigan catches Purdue in one of its worst roles, as the Boilermakers have covered just 19 of their last 66 away from home, if they are not playing with same-season revenge, and played their previous two games at home. This situation happened once before in conference play this season, and Penn State pulled the upset over Purdue in Happy Valley. This will be Michigan's final home game of the season, and I expect a raucous atmosphere at Crisler Arena. Look for the Wolverines to win big tonight on "Senior Day," and upset Purdue. Take the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Minnesota. We played on the Gophers last Sunday against Northwestern, and Minnesota rewarded us with a 72-45 blowout victory. But that was a perfect spot for Tubby Smith's men, and now it's time to fade the Gophers, as they're an awful bet on the Big 10 road. Overall, Minnesota has lost its last six conference road games ATS, and has covered just 30 of its last 80 road games when not playing with same-season revenge. Earlier this season, Minnesota defeated Illinois 59-36, but prior to that win, the Illini had won 20 STRAIGHT vs. the Gophers. Look for Illinois to avenge that 23-point pasting, and win its 21st game of the last 22 vs. Minnesota. NCAA Roadkill on Illinois.

At 9 pm, our Conference USA Game of the Year is on the UAB Blazers plus the points over Memphis. UAB falls into one of my best systems, which is 81-27 ATS since 1990, and this system plays on certain home dogs with strong home courts (at least 32 wins in last 40 home games) which are matched up against .750 (or better) foes off a straight-up win. Additionally, UAB plays with revenge from a 13-point loss at Memphis, and the Blazers also fall into a same-season revenge angle of mine which is 39-13 ATS this year. Everyone knows about Memphis' dominance in Conference USA games: The Tigers have won 54 straight since falling at UAB two seasons ago. But UAB's working on some impressive streaks as well. The Blazers are 12-0 at home this year, and have won 26 of their last 27 home games, with their only loss by a single point (yes, to these Tigers), 79-78 last February. And Memphis won that game by the scantest of margins, as UAB hit a last-second shot, but replays showed it was released a hair after time expired. This will be another tough game for the 4th-ranked Tigers, as UAB is the top shooting team in Conference USA, and Blazer guard Robert Vaden leads the league in 3-pointers made, while teammate Paul Delaney has the best FG percentage, nationally, among all guards. The Blazers are 19-8 ATS at home since 1993 when playing with same-season revenge, including 10-1 ATS when checking in off a win. UAB's won six straight coming into tonight's game, and an outright upset win won't be a surprise. Take the points. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

larry ness

g.o.y california

[Mr. IWS]

drbob opinions

Thursday College Opinions
Youngstown State (+16) over BUTLER
Rotation #715 – 4 pm Pacific
Butler is coming off a satisfying “Bracket Buster” upset win at Davidson, as the Bulldogs continue to play their best against non-conference opponents (16-5-1 ATS under coach Stevens) or when challenged (24-10-3 ATS in all games when favored by 10 or less or getting points). However, Butler tends to relax as a big favorite in Horizon League play and the Bulldogs are just 5-13 ATS as a conference favorite of more than 10 points (2-5 ATS this season). Youngstown State, meanwhile, is 11-4 ATS as a conference underdog of more than 10 points under coach Jerry Slocum, including 4-1 ATS this season and 4-1 ATS against Butler. Butler also applies to a negative 13-52 ATS big home favorite letdown situation and my ratings favor Butler by only 15 points against the improving Penquins who are 5-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games and covered the spread in the only game that they lost recently (a 4 point loss as a 14 ½ point dog at Cleveland State). I’ll lean with the Penguins at +15 or +15 ½ points and I’ll take Youngstown State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +16 points or more.

Cleveland State (-5 ½) over VALPARAISO
Rotation #743 – 5:30 pm Pacific
Cleveland State lost on Saturday at Wichita State to end a 7 game winning streak, but the loss at Wichita was a bit of a fluke given that the Shockers made 10 of 16 3-point shots rather than the 5 of 16 3-pointers that you’d expect from a team that shoots just 32% from beyond the arc of the season (and Cleveland State allows just 32%). Cleveland State should bounce-back tonight given the Vikings’ 21-6 ATS record as a favorite of 9 points or less and their 7-3 ATS road favorite mark the last two seasons (6-1 with PG D’Aundray Brown in the lineup). Valparaiso hasn’t beaten too many good teams since joining the Horizon league and the Crusaders are just 5-15 straight up in Horizon League games against teams that are 2 games above .500 or better and they’re only 3-12-1 ATS in those games when not an underdog of at least 10 points. My ratings favor Cleveland State by 7 points if you take out the games in which PG Brown missed and I’ll lean with Cleveland State at -6 points or less.

ELON (-4) over Georgia Southern
Rotation #776 – 4 pm Pacific
Georgia Southern nearly blew a 19 point lead on Saturday, but hung on for a 66-63 win as a 1 ½ point favorite against Jacksonville State. That victory ended an 8 game losing streak for the Eagles and I don’t expect them to win again this season. Georgia Southern is missing a couple of their best players due to injury (top player Willie Powers) and suspensions (G Julian Allen, F Trumaine Pearson, and G Antoine Johnson) and Elon, while not a good team, is the better team. Elon, unfortunately, may be without Brett James, who is their best all around player (13.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.6 steals, and 1.5 blocks) and has missed practice this week with an injured foot. James is a game time decision and I’d prefer not to take the chance that he won’t play. I’d still favor Elon by more than 4 points even if James doesn’t play, but I’ll just lean with the Phoenix tonight rather than make them a Best Bet.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

2 Star Selection
Furman (+12) over CITADEL
26-Feb-09 04:00 PM Pacific Time
The Citadel has won 10 consecutive games and is coming off a 64-46 upset win at Davidson in which Wildcats’ star Stephen Curry did not play. While the Bulldogs have been winning games, they haven’t been winning by big margins and they’ve won just 1 of their 11 home games by 10 points or more (a 14 point win over Western Carolina). The Citadel is 16-5-1 ATS in all games this season, but just 5-5 ATS at home and 0-2 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or more, so they tend to play to the level of their opposition. Furman is 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games and The Citadel applies to a very negative 0-25-3 ATS subset of a 42-104-3 ATS big home favorite letdown situation while also applying to a negative 22-57 ATS situation that plays against double-digit favorites that haven’t played in more than a week. My rating favor the Bulldogs by 11 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Furman in a 2-Star Best Bet at +11 points or more.
2-Stars at +11 or more.

2 Star Selection
New Orleans (+11 ½) over ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK
26-Feb-09 05:00 PM Pacific Time
New Orleans is coming off a 16 point loss as a 7 ½ point dog at UL Lafayette while Arkansas Little Rock is coming off an upset win at North Texas. That’s a nice scenario for the underdog New Orleans squad as both these teams play better after a loss and both play better as underdogs. New Orleans is just 8-16 ATS after a win in two seasons under coach Joe Pasternack, but the Privateers are 11-5-1 ATS after a game in which they lost straight up and lost to the spread (5-0-1 ATS this season) while also being better as an underdog (16-12-1 ATS) than they are as a favorite or pick (5-13 ATS). The Privateers are at their best as an underdog after a straight up and ATS loss, going 8-1-1 ATS in that role. Little Rock is just 6-18-2 ATS when favored by 7 points or more (1-8 ATS this season) and the Trojans are just 9-17 ATS after an upset win (1-5 ATS when favored by 7 or more). In addition to the team trends, Little Rock applies to a negative 17-62-3 ATS big home favorite letdown situation. My rating favor Little Rock by 11 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take New Orleans in a 2-Star Best Bet at +11 points or more and for 3-Stars at +12 or more.
2-Stars at +11 or more, 3-Stars at +12 or more.

2 Star Selection
STANFORD (+5 ½) over Ucla
26-Feb-09 07:30 PM Pacific Time
Stanford has lost 7 or their last 9 games, but 5 of those losses have come on the road and the Cardinal have been pretty good at home with wins over NCAA Tournament bound Arizona and Cal. The Cardinal are still winless in conference road games after losing 3 consecutive games away from The Farm, including the last two as favorites at Oregon State and at Oregon, but Stanford plays with a lot more confidence at home and have done a good job of bouncing back from losses on this floor. Stanford is 3-0 straight up and ATS this season at home after a loss, beating Arizona 76-60 after losing to Arizona State, beating Cal 75-69 after losing consecutive road games in the state of Washington, and beating a decent Washington State team 65-54 to end a 3 game losing streak that included a 63-97 loss at UCLA. Stanford has also been good when new coach Johnnie Dawkins has had 3 or more days off in between games to prepare, as the Cardinal are 9-2 ATS this season in such games – including 6-0 ATS at home. That 34 point loss at UCLA actually sets up Stanford in a very good 30-4-1 ATS subset of a 94-30-2 ATS humiliation revenge situation. I know UCLA is coming off an upset loss to Washington State, but the Bruins are just 1-4 ATS in recent years as a road favorite of 4 points or more following a loss and that 94-30-2 ATS situation is 16-2 ATS when the opponent is coming off an upset loss. Stanford also applies to a 51-13-1 ATS strong home court underdog angle. UCLA has struggled away from Pauley Pavilion this season, as the Bruins are just 2-5 straight up away from home against teams of NIT quality or better with the victories coming by just 2 points and by 4 points. Two of those games were against teams of Stanford’s caliber and those games were a 3 point loss on a neutral floor to Michigan and a spread losing 2 point win at Washington State. UCLA simply doesn’t play well defensively, as the Bruins have allowed 48% shooting in Pac-10 games this season and have allowed 50% shooting or higher in each of their past 4 games. Stanford is not a good defensive team either, but the Cardinal are a good offensive team that can take advantage of UCLA’s defensive lapses and keep this game competitive. My ratings using all games this season favor UCLA by just 3 points and using UCLA’s road games against Stanford’s home games would result in an even game. Stanford has struggled in Pac-10 play but using conference games only would favor UCLA by only 6 points and that number would be 3 ½ points if I only used Stanford’s conference home game ratings. The line is too high no matter how I crunch the numbers and the situation favors the Cardinal. I’ll take Stanford in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 3-Stars at +6 points or more.
2-Stars at +5 or more, 3-Stars at +6.

2 Star Selection
SANTA CLARA (+10) over Gonzaga
26-Feb-09 08:00 PM Pacific Time
Santa Clara has under-performed most of the season, but the Broncos have shown that they can compete with good teams with a home win over St. Mary’s (by 18 points) and close losses to UAB, Arizona, and at St. Mary’s (all by 3 points or less). One game against a good team in which the Broncos did not compete was a 53-95 loss at Gonzaga in mid-January, but that loss actually sets up Santa Clara in a 94-30-2 ATS humiliation revenge situation and Gonzaga applies to a negative 86-168-9 ATS road letdown situation. My ratings favor Gonzaga by 9 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Santa Clara in a 2-Star Best Bet at +9 points or more and for 3-Stars at +11 or more.
2-Stars at +9 or more, 3-Stars at +11.