2-27-09

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

15 Dime Lakers

5 Dime St Peter's

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer 25*- Niagra

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NBA

OVER portland/minnesota

writeup to follow
MINNESOTA

Game: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game Time: 2/27/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves Reason: I'm taking the points with MINNESOTA. I played against the Cavaliers last night, noting that they weren't nearly as strong when playing away from Cleveland. That's also the case with the Trail Blazers. While the Blazers are an excellent 23-5 at the Rose Garden, they're just 12-17 when playing outside of Portland, going a money-burning 11-18 at the betting window. In their last game, the Blazers were blown out 99-84 at San Antonio. One might assume that they'd be good at bouncing back from a blowout loss. However, they're actually just 2-5 ATS on the season, when coming off a double-digit loss in their previous game. With a rematch with the Spurs scheduled for Sunday, I feel that it will be easy for the Blazers to get caught looking past the lowly T-Wolves. The injury to Jefferson was certainly a blow to the T-Wolves. However, they've had enough time to "sulk" about that loss and its time to "get back to work." While the T-Wolves lost both earlier meetings with the Blazers, those games were both decided by five points or less, including an 88-83 loss here at Minnesota. That puts them in one of their most profitable roles as we find them at an excellent 11-5 ATS the last 16 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. Look for revenge-minded T-Wolves to improve on those stats by earning at least another cover this evening. *Northwest Div. Best Bet
DENVER

Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets Game Time: 2/27/2009 9:05:00 PM Prediction: Denver Nuggets Reason: I'm taking the points with DENVER. The Lakers have been the best team in the West again this year and their overall record is far superior to the record of any other team in the conference. However, a closer look reveals that their road record (21-6) is almost identical to Denver's home record of 21-7. While those home/road records are equal, the Nuggets have an important and significant scheduling advantage. While the Nuggets had yesterday off, the Lakers are coming off a big "TNT" win over Shaq and the Suns. Note that they have a rematch vs. the Suns on the weekend, so this game is "sandwiched" in between the two emotional Shaq/Kobe showdowns. While playing back to back games hasn't really bother the Lakers this season, this isn't a typical "back to back spot," as they're also playing their seventh game in the past 11 days. That's a very demanding schedule and fatigue figures to play a factor. Of course, the "thin air" in Denver won't do anything to help their tired legs. In addition to being the "fresher" team, I expect the Nuggets to be the "hungrier" team. The Lakers have the #1 seed in the West all but wrapped up and they gained another game on the Cavs for the best overall record in the league last night. Conversely, the Nuggets are trying to hold off both the Jazz and the Blazers for the #1 spot in the Northwest. That's critically important for playoff seeding purposes, as otherwise they'd be just one of the nine teams battling for eight spots. The Nuggets also get some added motivation from the fact that the Lakers have already beaten them twice this season. Additionally, even though they won last game, they're still trying to "get back on track" and the fact that they squandered a lead in that game, should ensure that they're not complacent here. Billups was quoted as saying: "I was angry. I'm happy we won, but I'm just disappointed in how we won, and that's just the sign of a really good team." Last night's cover notwithstanding, the Lakers are still a money-burning 8-15-1 ATS on the season when playing a road game with a over/under line of 210 or greater. On the other hand, the Nuggets are 6-1 ATS when playing a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210. I expect Billups and the revenge-minded Nuggets to be at their best as they improve on those stats this evening. *GOM

[Mr. IWS]

DRBOB:


Friday Possible NBA Best Bet
L.A. Clippers (+1 ½) over SACRAMENTO
Rotation #873 – 7:05 pm Pacific
The Clippers are a pretty decent team with both Zach Randolph and Marcus Camby playing (10-10 straight up and coming off an upset of the Celtics on Wednesday night, but Camby has an inner ear infection that keeps him from flying and he is questionable for tonight’s game as it is uncertain whether the team drove him from Los Angeles to Sacramento for this game (a 6 hour drive) or if he was cleared to fly with the team. While Randolph is important, Camby is perhaps more important to the Clippers because of his great defense and rebounding. Sacramento is the league’s worst team and they are even worse without Brad Miller, who was traded to Chicago, but I make this game a pick with Camby not playing for the Clippers while I favor Los Angeles by 5 points if he does play. The Kings are just 10-17-1 ATS at home this season and 8-20 straight up and they are certainly not likely to beat the Clippers if Camby plays. I’ll lean with the Clippers as an underdog without Camby playing, but I’ll make the Clippers a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better if Camby is upgraded to probable - so keep an eye on the injury report.

I will update my basketball page and email my subscribers if Camby is upgraded to probable.

Friday NBA Opinion
Portland (-4 ½) over MINNESOTA
Rotation #863 – 5:05 pm Pacific
Minnesota is just 1-6 straight up and a 2-5 ATS since losing leading scorer Al Jefferson to a season ending injury and the Timberwolves host a Blazers team that is eager for a win after losing consecutive games at Houston and San Antonio. Portland applies to a decent 56-20-3 ATS road bounce-back situation and the Timberwolves are just 8-19-1 ATS at home this season. Portland is only 11-18 ATS on the road, but my ratings still favor the Blazers by 5 points here in Minnesota after adjusting for the absences of Oden for Portland and Jefferson for Minnesota. There is not quite enough to make the Blazers a Best Bet here, but I’ll lean with Portland at -5 or -4 ½ points and I’d take Portland in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.