2-28-09

[Mr. IWS]

ASA's College BB Major Mismatch Game of the Week - 17-5 run!
PLAY ON Western Kentucky + vs. Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 8:00 PM EST

This is a mismatch. MTSU simply isn?t a good team right now. We went against them @ Florida International on Thursday and lost, however the Blue Raiders AGAIN were not impressive. They were 3.5 points favorites at FIU and barely covered 71-66. Considering the fact that Middle Tennessee got out to a 15-point lead because the Panthers began the game just 1 for 12 from the field. FIU also made only 41% of their free throws (7 of 17) yet despite those offensive struggles for the home team, it was still a down to the wire game. Last Saturday this team almost lost to Florida Atlantic who is 2-15 in the Sun Belt Conference. The Raiders trailed for much of that game and finally took a lead late in the game and held on for a close win. Their two games previous to that two game Florida stint were both home losses to North Texas and South Alabama. It?s easy to see, this team is not playing well right now and laying points vs. the best team in the conference is ridiculous.

This is a big game for WKY who sits in first place in the Sun Belt East at 14-3. Troy is just one game behind them at 13-4. This is the final regular season game for each team, so a win here locks up first place for the Hilltoppers. While WKY has lost a few games on the road, they?ve shown up big away from home when needed. That includes a 5-3 overall road record in conference games and wins at 14-3 Arkansas Little Rock and 10-7 South Alabama. The Toppers have a huge statistical advantage in this match up. Their points per possession differential is a very good +0.158 while MTSU is just barely above water at 0.022 in conference games. WKY is 2nd in the league in shooting percentage, 3rd in defensive shooting percentage and 1st in rebounding. Compare that to MTSU who is 7th in shooting percentage, 11th in defensive FG percentage and 7th in rebounding.

Western Kentucky is absolutely the better team and they have a lot to play for tonight. They have dominated the series winning 9 of the last 10 outright and that continues on Saturday. The Hilltoppers show up big and get the road win.

Best of Luck, ASA!

[Mr. IWS]

Maddux Sports

Basketball
#523 - NCAA - 4 units on Southern Mississippi +23
#562 - NCAA - 3 units on Dayton -2.5
#569 - NCAA - 3 units on Georgia State +14.5
#591 - NCAA - 3 units on Auburn +5
#595 - NCAA - 3 units on Arizona +8
#630 - NCAA - 3 units on Creighton -7.5
#684 - NCAA - 3 units on Western Carolina -3

[Mr. IWS]

BUDIN
SATURDAY'S PICK
25 DIME



INDIANA STATE



This price is a solid -3 as I received this play and had the site updated at midnight Eastern.



If you have Indiana State -3, I suggest you buy down the 1/2 point to -2 1/2 so you get the win should Indiana State win by three.



In the unlikely case you have Indiana State -3 1/2 - even after shopping around - buy down the 1/2 point to -3 so you get the push should Indiana State only prevail by three.



At over 1700 dimes of profit over the past two years, we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in this case.



Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself

[Mr. IWS]

ChicagoSportsConnection
***************************************
#548...NORTHERN ILLINOIS -1.5 vs Ball St....3:00 EDT

NORTHERN ILL has a bunch of young kids this year and they have suffered.
But it looks like they are starting to gell...they've won 3 of 4....and won their last 2 games by 15 & 24 points.
They have a 7-5 HOME RECORD.
BALL ST is 3-8 on the road.....6-32 over the last 3 seasons.
....they've lost 5 straight on the road including a loss to TOLEDO (5-23 record) recently.

******************************************
#566...RICE +9 vs Houston................4:00 EDT

RICE is 6-1 ATS in the L7 games.
69-66 @ UCF .......(+13)
66-69 @ SMU ......(+5.5)
58-67 UTEP..........(+7).........didn't cover
88-91 @ EC..........(+7.5)
88-72 S.MISS ......(+6)
65-72@HOUST... (+19)......***
76-70 EC .............(+1)
HOUSTON is 5-6 SU on the road.
.....they haven't won @ Autry Court in their last 6 tries.
.....big game with MEMP on tap.

*******************************************
#690...TENN ST-2.5 vs E.Illinois.................8:45 EDT
(added game / time change)

TENN ST is 5-0 with interim coach Mark Pittman.
.......they are 7-6 @ home.

I was just looking to fade E.ILL as they have lost 5 of their L6 games.
They had an atrocious season last year, but were actually playing some decent ball for a while this year....but they have reverted back to old form of late.
The last four losses were by....
15
16
18
16.
TENN ST has a decent home record and seem to be on a roll with the new coach, so we will fade E.Ill here.

***************************************
NBA
HOUSTON -1 @ Chicago...........................8:35 EDT

HOUS has won 6 straight.
Their L6 opponents have scored....
74 CLEV
94 PORT
78 CHAR
86 DALL
88 NJ
82 SACR
They were off last night while the Bulls lost @ Washington (after a visit to the White House to meet the new president ).
HOUS hasn't played a Back2Back game since 02-03-09... SO THEY ARE RESTED.

THE BULLS MEANWHILE HAVE BEEN VERY BUSY...
They will be playing their 4th in 5....5th in 7....6th in9....7th in 11.
.....with a trip to the White House mixed in of course ( I assumed that was reserved for The NBA Champs).
....they have lost 3 of 4 since aquiring Brad Miller and a few others.

FYI...the total dipped to 196 shortly after opening @ 198.
This due to the Rockets defense..... but I don't really trust the Under since the Bulls may be real tired and they'll give up 110+ points on occasion.

Play on HOUSTON -1

[Mr. IWS]

Winning Angle Plays for Saturday

NCAA

Play California (+2.5) over UCLA* (Top NCAA Play)

California has won 5 of the last 6 games and they have also covered the spread in 10 of the last 13 games at home this season. California has also covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games after scoring 80 points or more in the last game.

Play Temple (+3) over Dayton* (Bonus NCAA Play)

Temple has won 5 of the last 6 games and they have also covered the spread in 13 of the last 17 games when the line is between +3 to -3. Temple has covered the spread in 22 of the last 30 games when playing conference opponents.


Play LSU (+4.5) over Kentucky (Bonus NCAA Play)

LSU has won 12 of the last 13 conference games and they have also won 10 of the last 12 games coming off an OVER the total. LSU has won 16 of the last 19 games when playing their 2nd game in a week.


NBA Hoops
Play New York (+5.5) over Miami (NBA Top Play)

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Farrgo

Utah @ Brigham Young
PICK: Brigham Young

This is a big spot for BYU as heading into this week, it trails first place Utah by two games with only two remaining following this one. If the Cougars can win out, they are still in the running for the MWC regular season championship but will definitely need some help along the way. The rest of their schedule is fairly easy while the Utes are coming off a tough home with over UNLV on Wednesday and then have to go to New Mexico three days after this one that could potentially decide the regular season title. This two-game deficit can be mostly blamed on one game and that was a loss in Utah that came in overtime back no January 27th. That was the first loss in the last five meetings against the hated rival and BYU will be out for some payback. The Cougars had every chance to win that game as they shot 50.8 percent from the field, but were outscored 31-13 at the free-throw line. That is some definite home cooking that took place and BYU will most likely be getting those calls on its home floor. The Cougars have been outshot at the free throw line on the road by 44 attempts while outshooting foes by 20 attempts at home. After losing home games against Wake Forest and UNLV, the first snapping a 52-game home court winning streak, the Cougars have won four straight at home with the last three coming by an average of 23 ppg. Despite the two losses, this is still the most feared venue in the conference for opponents. We all know that this is a huge rivalry in football but the basketball version is just as fierce and the Cougars desperately want some revenge. A loss here would not only eliminate them from the regular season title but it would also put a damper on a possible third straight at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. Utah has been a very good team on the road this season but its four road wins within the conference came at Air Force, TCU, Wyoming and Colorado St., who happen to be the four worse teams in the Mountain West with a combined record of 14-38. To no surprise, the two road losses came against UNLV and San Diego St., in the top half of the conference with BYU and those two setbacks came by 10 and nine points. Through games of February 22, BYU ranked first in the nation in field-goal percentage at 50.6 percent. UCLA, which is at 50.3 percent, is the only other team shooting better than 50 percent. Overall, the Cougars have a +13.6 edge in efficiency numbers. Utah normally has a clear edge inside but that is not the case here as the Utes are +5.4 rpg in margin while BYU is +4.2 rpg in margin so the difference is minimal. A variance that is not minimal comes in the ever important assist/turnover ratio category. The Cougars have a healthy ratio of 1.46 while Utah is at 1.02 which is barely above breakeven and pretty unimpressive if you ask me. BYU is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games against teams that slow the pace, averaging 53 or fewer shots per game. The Cougars are also 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games coming off a double-digit win in the conference and they are 11-3 ATS coming off a road conference win over the last three years. Look for BYU to dominate once again on its home floor and avenge that earlier loss to the Utes in a big way. 3* BYU Cougars

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Farrgo

New Mexico at Colorado State
Prediction: New Mexico

This is a rather big line but there is a lot on the line for the Lobos. A win here and a loss by Utah at BYU, which is more than possible, sets up a chance for New Mexico to grab a share of the MVC Championship as it hosts Utah on Tuesday. The Lobos will likely know what the Utes did since their game starts four hours before the game at Colorado St. A Utah loss will provide a lot more motivation for the Lobos but even if Utah does win, it is not over as each team still has one remaining game following their Tuesday matchup. This is the second meeting this season between New Mexico and Colorado St. and the Lobos easily won that first matchup by 18 points. That does set up a revenge spot for the Rams however, sometimes revenge is not enough as teams simply have huge advantages over other teams. That is the case with New Mexico who has won the last four meetings including three straight dating back to the start of last season by 30, 19 and 18 points. Going back further, the Lobos have won 24 of the last 27 meetings. In that first matchup this season, the Lobos scored 25 points off 20 turnovers by Colorado St. and that is no aberration. New Mexico is just 4-6 on the road this season but it has played better than that record indicates. All four of New Mexico?s conference losses have come on the road, by a combined margin of just 19 points (4.8 ppg). Colorado St. has not posted a much better record at home as it is just 6-7. There is only one quality win of the bunch and that was a two-point victory over UNLV back in January. The other three conference wins came against 5-9 TCU and 0-13 Air Force twice. The Rams are coming off a tough loss at home against bitter rival Wyoming so even though it is senior night, this game will be a tough one to get up for. That loss virtually locked up the requirement to play in the MWC Tournament play-in game which it was trying to avoid. A win here really does nothing now unless a lot of things fall into place. Well, yeah, I'm mad, said usually unflappable Colorado St. head coach Tim Miles. This won't go away soon. It's winnable. It's Wyoming. It's the play-in game. It's a lot of stuff I think that tells the story of how big that game really was for the Rams and how much they missed out on a good opportunity. New Mexico is one of the more athletic teams in the Mountain West Conference. The Lobos want to force an up-tempo pace, and their full-court defense is capable of disrupting everyone as it did in the first meeting against Colorado St. On the season, the Lobos are allowing a 0.88 assist/turnover ratio while the Rams have a ratio on offense of just 0.82. Those numbers tend to change in road and home situations and that is the case here but not much. The New Mexico defensive ratio goes to 0.99 in its road games which is still extremely solid considering it is under the breakeven point. As for the Rams, their offensive ratio actually drops at home to 0.75 so there will not be an advantage of the venue switch for this one. Another huge advantage is the efficiency comparisons. The Lobos are +7.9 in offensive efficiency, which is extremely solid as anything more than a +5 advantage is really big. In overall efficiency, which takes into account many other factors including defense, turnover percentage and offensive rebounding on both ends, New Mexico is +15.9. To put that into context, of the 91 games on Saturday, there are only 15 games where a team has a higher advantage in efficiency and those games have some pretty hefty spreads. This one is very doable considering that the two road conference wins by New Mexico both came by more than this number. 5* New Mexico Lobos

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Sports Experts

10* Take Florida State (+1.5) over Clemson (NCAA Power Play)

Florida State
• 9-2 ATS when the line is between +3 to -3
• 11-3 ATS after having won 2 of the last 3 games
• 8-3 SU vs. Clemson at home

10* Take New York (+5.5) over Miami (NBA Power Play)

Miami
• 11-24 ATS vs. New York at home
• 11-23 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons

Bonus Pays
5* Take Iowa State (+10) over Texas A&M (NCAA)
5* Take Ohio State (+10) over Purdue (NCAA)
5* Take Ottawa (-150) over Toronto (NHL)

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Canada

Game 1 - Dallas Stars -140

Game 2 - Leafs/Sens over 6

Game 3 - Sabres/Islanders over 5.5

Game 4 - Phoenix Coyotes -115

[Mr. IWS]

Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, February 28, 2009
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[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan

Game: Clemson at Florida State Feb 28 2009 2:00PM
Prediction: Clemson

Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Clemson over FSU slated to start at 2:00 EST. First, I have had a rough week in the College ranks and to admit that poor performance and to also make amends for those mistakes I have put together the most incredible card of my career. It includes THREE 10* Titan plays and FIVE 5* Monster plays. The 5* Monster plays are on the house and you only when the 10* net you a profit and I promise they will. FSU show very hot from the behind the arc in their last game and that sets them in a poor role for this critical game. FSU is just 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better since 1997. Clemson is a solid 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons. FSU shot hot from the 3-point arc, but were just 39% for the game. That game was a loss to BC 72-67 putting them into a must win out condition to get into the Tournament. Clemson, based on my research and statistic PR ratings, may be the most under rated team in the ACC. They too need this game to gain a strong seeding for the ACC Tournament. Clemson is ?IN?, but I do not see any let down here in Tallahassee. Clemson has significant advantages in nearly all facets of this game and I would not be surprised to see this a double digit Tiger win.

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe
02/28/2009

NBA Basketball
Bulls +1 over Rockets

NCAA Basketball
Iowa +6.5 over Northwestern
Alabama +6.5 over Mississippi

[Mr. IWS]

Michael Cannon Saturday's Plays...
30 Dime –

EAST CAROLINA

10 Dime –

ROCKETS

5 Dime -

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

I will be back by 11:00 am eastern with my analysis.



Sports Gambling Hotline CHARLOTTE SERVICE For Saturday, Top-Rated 3? on Wake Forest minus the points. Bonus 2?s on Dayton minus the points, and a 2? on Duke minus the points.



MIAMI SERVICE For Saturday, Top-Rated 3? on Vanderbilt as a small favorite. Bonus 2?s on Gonzaga minus the points, and a NBA 2? on Chicago at a near pick at home.



Tony Weston SATURDAY'S PLAYS 35 Dime Arizona State
15 Dime Villanova


Arizona State at Washington State
ARIZONA STATE - After dropping a couple of games SU and ATS back-to-back last month, the Arizona State Sun Devils have been on a tear as of late.

Arizona State has covered in five of its last six games, going 5-1 SU in that stretch, and has covered in five straight games on the road, going 4-1 SU in that stretch.

Tonight, the Sun Devils will continue their winning ways and get over on Pac-10 rival Washington State.

Depending on where you go ASU is installed as about a 1-point favorite and will blow right past that as they battle a Cougars team that’s covered in only three of 12 home games this season. For the year, Washington State is only 3-5 ATS at home against the Pac-10.

ASU, on the other hand, is on a five-game ATS road winning streak and has covered in five of its last six against the Pac-10, beating its opponents, on average, 65.6-59.3.

The Sun Devils will keep up its winning trends on the road and against the Pac-10 with an easy win over the Cougars tonight. Take ASU on the road in this one.



Georgetown at Villanova
VILLANOVA - When you think of Big East basketball, it’s not out of the ordinary to think of teams like UConn, Louisville and Pittsburgh.

But almost quietly, the Villanova Wildcats are making a push in the grinder of a conference that is the Big East. Villanova is only 2 1/2 games behind Connecticut and is sitting at 11-4 SU this season conference action.

’Nova has covered in nine of its last 12 games against the Big East and will cover one more time today against visiting Georgetown, which is only 8-20 ATS its last 28 in conference action.

Coming into this game the Wildcats have covered in five of their last six home games and have been especially strong on Saturdays, covering in six of their last seven games in Saturday.

Now they battle a Georgetown team that that has struggled mightily this season, going only 7-14-1 ATS this year, including only two covers in their last 15 games overall.

On the road the Hoyas have been equally as bad, covering only once in seven games away from home.

Against these Wildcats, Georgetown has not had much more luck, going only 4-9 ATS its last 13 games against Villanova.

The Wildcats will continue their dominance against Georgetown and get over easily today. Take Villanova at home in this Big East showdown

[Mr. IWS]

Karl Garrett 30 DIMER - WASHINGTON....20 DIMER - OKLAHOMA STATE....10 DIMER - ALABAMA 30 DIMER - WASHINGTON HUSKIES - 3PM

Washington gutted out an overtime win on Thursday over Arizona State, but they did fail to cover the impost. I don't think we will be seeing overtime today, as reality looks like it has settled in with Arizona - they Wildcats are good, but their 16-point loss at Wash State was the loss # 2 in a row, # 3 is most defitnitely on the horizon today!

This is a revenge spot for the Huskies who allowed 69-points in the second half of their 97-106 loss at Tuscon at the end of January. The host has now won and covered the last 4 series meetings.

U-Dub is a solid 15-1 straight up at home, and 9-5 against the spread in their lined home dates.

Arizona has struggled away from home at just 5-6 against the spread, and they will stuggle here today.

Lay it, as this one turns into a rout!

20 DIMER - OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS - 6PM

Looks tempting to back the Longhorns in this one, as Texas has won 6 straight in this series, including a 99-74 romp at home just over 2 weeks ago.

Since that loss, Oklahoma State has won and covered 4 in a row to move to 18-9 on the year. A win today would go a long way on the Cowboys Big Dance resume.

Oklahoma State is a solid 12-2 straight up at home, and it is just not easy to win in Stillwater for anyone.

You can expect the home crowd to be rocking today, and you can also expect the Cowboys to take down the Longhorns, and stop a 6 game series slide.

G-Man taking the Pokes.

10 DIMER - ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE - 4PM

Both schools stand at 15-12 this year, and while Ole Miss has been murder at home - 13-2 straight up, 8-3 against the spread - I have a feeling this game is going down to the wire.

The Tide did eek out the 76-73 home win over the Rebels on January 21st, as Alabama is now 4-2 straight up the last 6 series meetings.

Ole Miss is off a second half collapse at Auburn, and I believe that loss will have a lingering effect today. It may not linger the full 40 minutes, but expect it to be present early on, and for Alabama to take advantage plus the points.

Roll Tide!

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton Saturday's College Hoops winners ... 30 Dime: NOTRE DAME (plus the points vs. UConn)

10 Dime: ARIZONA (plus the points vs. Washington)

5 Dime: FLORIDA STATE (plus the points vs. Clemson)


Notre Dame

Without question, Notre Dame has to go down as one of the most disappointing teams in college hoops this season, right along side Big East rival Georgetown and Tennessee from the SEC. And without question, UConn is one of the Top 5 teams in the country and a legitimate national championship contender. All that said, this line is seriously inflated, and it’s inflated for a few reasons.

First and foremost is the fact that Notre Dame is coming off a shaky five-point home win over Rutgers, failing to cover as a 14-point favorite, making the Irish 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games, 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games and 4-11 ATS in Big East play. However, Notre Dame is playing much better lately, winning four of their last five games, including a 33-point home blowout of Louisville and a 19-point romp last Saturday at Providence – the same Providence that just upset top-ranked Pitt at home on Wednesday.

Another reason this line is inflated is because Georgetown is coming off one of its most impressive performances of the season, a 93-82 win at No. 8 Marquette, which had previously been unbeaten at home. However, prior to that contest, the Huskies had failed to cover a pointspread in three straight games overall and four of five. In fact, UConn is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games and 3-5 ATS when hosting Big East foes this season. Going back to before the start of conference play, UConn has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 at home. Not only that, but check out UConn’s pointspread record as a big favorite: 3-7 ATS when laying double digits.

Lastly, this number is jacked up because UConn wemt to South Bent a month ago and took out the Irish 69-61 as a two-point road favorite. However, the Huskies had Jerome Dyson that day, and he went off for 15 points, nine rebounds, three assists and two steals in 35 minutes of action. As we know, Dyson is done for the season with a knee injury, so that’s a big advantage that the Irish don’t have to deal with him today.

Notre Dame has not won at Connecticut in years, but the Irish have been competitive there recently. They lost by six points last year, by one point in overtime in 2006, by 14 in 2005 and 11 in 2004. If you apply this pointspread today to any of those previous four games, well, Notre Dame would’ve gone 3-1 ATS.

Bottom line: I don’t expect Notre Dame to win, but the team has shown life lately and I do believe we’ll get the Irish’s best effort. And given how UConn has really struggled to cover these big numbers at home – and given that the Huskies are shooting just 66 percent from the foul line in their last five games and had been held under 70 points in six straight games before Wednesday – gimme the value with the quality underdog.


Arizona

The Arizona Wildcats have definitely struggled on the road in Pac-10 play, with only two victories, both against the league’s weakest teams (Oregon and Oregon State). And they were dreadful in the second half on Thursday at Washington State, turning a 29-26 halftime lead into a 69-53 loss after getting outscored 43-24 in the final 20 minutes. Prior to that effort, though, the Wildcats had been playing outstanding basketball. They won seven straight games from Jan. 24-Feb. 14 – including a 106-97 rout of Washington as a one-point home underdog – before losing a buzzer-beater at archrival Arizona State on Sunday, falling 70-68 as an eight-point underdog.

In fact, before losing at Wazu, Arizona had cashed in seven of eight games, including three straight as an underdog. Meanwhile, Washington hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire lately. The Huskies needed overtime to beat Arizona State at home Thursday (73-70), the same Arizona State that barely held off Arizona at home on Sunday, and last weekend Washington fell apart in the second half against UCLA (85-76 loss) and needed a big surge in the final five minutes to get past USC (60-51).

But this play more or less comes down to the matchup, as both of these teams like to run up and down the floor, as evidenced by the 106-97 shootout in Tucson a month ago. In fact, all four of Washington’s conference losses this season have come against opponents – Arizona, UCLA and Cal (twice) – that love the up-tempo pace that the Huskies play. And I believe with pure scorers like Chase Budinger (17.5 points, 6.5 rebounds per game) and stud forward Jordan Hill (17.9 points, 11 rebounds per game), the Wildcats will keep pace with Washington all day today.

In fact, just look how Arizona has been shooting the ball of late, averaging 75 ppg on 49 percent shooting in the last five games, including a blistering 38.4 percent from beyond the arc. By comparison, Washington is averaging a few more points than Arizona in its last five (78.2 ppg), but shooting 45.8 ppg including a woeful 31 percent on three-pointers.

The Huskies are just 3-4 ATS in Pac-10 home games this season, with two of the covers coming against Oregon and Oregon State. Meanwhile, Arizona has cashed in four of five games as an underdog of five points or more, and the Wildcats are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five series meetings, scoring 96, 84, 84 and 106 points in the four victories! Grab the big points, and don’t be surprised by an outright upset.


Florida State

I am totally and completely baffled by this pointspread. You’ve got two teams with identical 8-5 conference records and near-identical overall records (Clemson is 22-5; Florida State is 21-7). You’ve got Clemson coming off an 80-77 home loss to Virginia Tech as a 10-point favorite, one that’s split its last six games both SU and ATS. On the other hand, you’ve got the Seminoles coming off a close 72-67 road loss at Boston College, but they’re still 5-2 SU in their last seven games and 8-3-1 ATS in conference play.

Plus, Florida State has won three straight home games and is 4-2 in ACC home games, with the only losses coming against North Carolina (80-77) and Duke (66-58), two teams that are quite superior to Clemson. And on top of all that is this beauty: Earlier this month, Florida State went to Death Valley … and beat the Tigers 65-61 outright as a nine-point underdog!

So how in the hell can Clemson, which is just 3-2 SU and ATS in ACC road games, be favored in this contest today? Perhaps it’s a big fat trap, and if it is, then I’m a big fat sucker. But I just don’t see it. After all, Clemson’s defense has sprung a leak lately, giving up 75.8 points per game in the last five outings on 46.8 percent shooting overall and 47.3 percent from three-point range. And on the road, the Tigers give up 79.3 ppg on 49.4 percent shooting, quite a difference from what the Seminoles do defensively at home (62.1 ppg allowed on 37.3 percent shooting).

In fact, look at the point totals Clemson has allowed in its five ACC roadies (73 to Georgia Tech; 85 to lowly Virginia; 77 to Boston College; 82 to Virginia Tech and 94 to North Carolina). All five of those opponents shot 48 percent from the field or better, with four eclipsing 50 percent! Throw in the fact that the Seminoles are on a plethora of pointspread streaks (18-8-2 overall, 20-6-1 as an underdog, 6-0-1 after an ATS loss, 12-4-2 in ACC play), and I’ll jump all over the undervalued home team in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

rew Gordon Today's Games... 1. 200,000? Virginia Tech
2. 50,000? Creighton
3. 50,000? Oklahoma State

1. Virginia Tech- Hokies got back on the bubble with an impressive outright win at Clemson Wednesday, and I expect the same kind of energy (if not more) in this critical ACC rematch with Duke this afternoon. The knock on the Hokies was their recent road play (0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS away prior to Wednesday), but taking down Clemson was a big step forward, and sets them up perfectly today in Blacksburg, where they're just as good as Duke on both ends of the court. But let's dig a little deeper...

Before we get into match ups, its important to note that the Blue Devils handed the Hokies their worst loss of the season, a 69-44 drubbing in Durham back on January 4th, and now its payback time! Revenge is a key factor in capping any college game, but this one in particular, because Duke routed a Tech team that was still finding its way, and they learned a lot because of it. Need proof? The Hokies reeled off 5 straight ACC wins after that loss, and now things come full circle, as Va. Tech shows the Dukies just how much better they've gotten today.

As far as match ups are concerned, I'm looking for the Hokies Big 3, Delaney, Vassallo, and Allen to lead the way, as usual, but with a twist. I remember their last meeting well, and if you saw that game, you know Delaney played well, but Vassallo and Allen were just awful. Everyone is allowed an off-day, but rest-assured, the Hokies Big 3 will come to play this afternoon, especially Vassallo, who's really stepped it up of late (20+ ppg in 4 of last 5 games).

On the flip side, while Duke has won 3 straight, forgive me if I'm not impressed by them winning games they're supposed to win. Looking into the numbers, its clear their defense has fallen off considerably, allowing 81 ppg on a mind-boggling 55% shooting over their last 5 games! Guys, needless to say, its extremely difficult to cover as a road chalk (against a desperate opponent), if you're going to play NO defense!

Bottom line, while Duke may still get the W here, I wouldn't be surprised in the least, if Virginia Tech pulls off another outright upset here. They've got the home court, they've got a HUGE motivational edge (on the bubble, revenge), and are playing with a lot of confidence after winning at Clemson. Look for the Hokies to circle the wagons at home, and grab the cash in this critical ACC match up.

Take Virginia Tech plus the points over Duke as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Creighton- Huge game for the Bluejays, who sit at 13-4 in conference, tied with Northern Iowa for the top spot. A win here guarantees them no less than a co-conference championship, and that in and of itslef, is obviously a HUGE motivator. Look for the Jays to come out fired up, but that's hardly the only reason I like Creighton here...

Redbirds-backers cannot be happy with their team's play of late, losers of two in a row SUATS. Fact is, they're playing like a team that really has nothing to play for, in that, Illinois State has already locked up # 3 seed. So really guys, what's the motivation for this Redbirds team this afternoon?

Speaking of motivation, you know we can't talk about this contest without mentioning the fact the Bluejays have lost 4 in a row SUATS in this series, including an ugly 86-64 loss at Redbird Arena back in early January. I've said once and I'll say it again, payback is a bitch, and the Redbirds are about to find that out the hard way today.

So what's the difference in this match up? Well clearly, the Bluejays are playing great ball, winners of 9 in a row since they lost to Drake badly at home. We've seen this Creighton offense take off, averaging 76 ppg at home this season, and 78 ppg on nealry 50% shooting over their last 5 games! While both defenses are comparable statistically, there's no question the Bluejays offense has a huge edge.

Finally, one of the main reasons the Redbirds are suddenly struggling has been the drop-off in play of one of their best players (and a Creighton-killer in the past) Osiris Eldridge. He's averaged 19 ppg in his last 5 meetings with Creighton, but of late, has been slumping bad, averaging 11 ppg on 33% shooting over his last 5 games. Note, Eldridge is just 4 of 25 over his last 2 games, and breaking that slump against a very good, and highly motivated Bluejays defense is easier said than done. In the end, the Bluejays can lock up a co-conference championship, and coupled with the revenge factor and match ups issues mentioned above, look for the Bluejays to deliver the solid home win and cover this afternoon.

Take Creighton over Illinois State in this college hoops match up.

3. Oklahoma State- Good spot to back the Cowboys, who have several strong edges in this contest, but let's start with the situational aspects...

We all knew the Longhorns needed to rebound after an ugly loss at Texas A&M, and they did that by winning two critical home games. Now however, one has to question their focus going back out on the road... In other words, I smell a letdown here for the Longhorns, as matching the energy of the Cowboys in Stillwater coming off those two wins is easier said than done.

Speaking of Stillwater, there's no question it remains one of the toughest places to play in the Big 12, with the Cowboys going 12-2 SU and 5-4 ATS there this season. Herein lies the problem for the Longhorns, as the Cowboys offense is excellent at home, burning up the nets averaging 88 ppg on 47% shooting (incl. almost 40% from 3-point land)! For as good as Texas has been, their offense on the road has been average at best, averaging 69 ppg on 42% shooting (incl. just 25% from long range).

Clearly, Okie State has the edge offensively, and the 'Horns recent road losses at Texas A&M (66 points scored) and Nebraska (55 points scored), show why I like the Cowboys in this contest... Texas will not be able to keep pace. Defensively, we'll give the edge to Texas, but not by much, especially of late, allowing 76 ppg on 48% shooting over their last 5 games (not nearly good enough to win in this contest).

Finally, once again, we see another revenge contest here (a lot of payback going around today). The Longhorns mauled the Cowboys 99-74 in Austin back on Feb. 10th, and you best believe Okie State will be ready for the rematch today at home. True, Texas has won the last 6 meetings between these two teams, but only one of those 6 games was in Stillwater, and that one was a razor close 63-61 Texas win, but Okie State cover. The Cowboys finally make it over the hump, get their revenge AND add a much needed win to their resume this afternoon.

Take Oklahoma State over Texas in this college hoops match up.

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan Saturday Winners ...

600? UTAH STATE - Let it be known, in most other situations, I’d think about siding with a team like the Aggies, solely because they just clinched the Western Athletic Conference title, and really have nothing else to play for before the tournament. With the No. 1 seed wrapped up, you’d think this is the perfect time to rest. But there are three intangibles that easily override that one factor. One, we have USU coach Stew Morrill, and there is no time to rest on laurels under his regime. Two, this is a meaningful clash for the Aggies, who still have something to prove against the stalwart Wolfpack. Three, this is a pick’em game in which we need only pick the winner, and no matter where the game is being played - this season, right now, these players, this team … all Utah State.

Fact is, while the Aggies appear ready for the postseason with a well-balanced rotation that can play at either end of the floor, the Wolfpack come into their own Lawlor Events Center with their hands full defensively and struggling offensively. Not exactly the matchup many thought of way back when, as this was the presumed showdown for the regular-season title. Again, the Aggies have wrapped it up, but they’ll still want to deliver the knock-out statement. And with an 11-point win in the first meeting notched on the belt, I don’t see how this confident roster duplicates the effort and basically secures the win – which is all we need.

Nevada has looked bleak from the field in its last three games, connecting on just 37.9 percent of its shots from the field, and now it has to try to play keep up with a Utah State team that is shooting 49.9 percent from the wood the entire season – the fourth-best shooting effort in the nation.

And don’t worry about a letdown, as Morrill is a veteran coach who isn’t about to let his troops forget Nevada is the premier team in the league – not his Aggies. That should spark some intensity. Nevada has been the dominant team in the WAC for however number of years now, but the Aggies can taste that statement. They know that regardless of the regular-season title they clinched two nights ago, the changing of the guard relies on this contest. A loss means nothing, in terms of seeding. But perception is reality, and the Aggies want everyone to know there’s a new sheriff in conference.

Give me Utah State tonight, as the Wolfpack step aside, for now, to make room for the WAC’s newest top dawg.

200? CALIFORNIA - The overtime-win over Southern Cal was an important win for the Golden Bears. It was also a lucky one. And there’s no doubt in my head the only reason it went into overtime was because the Bears became complacent with the lead, counted it as a win and ultimately was looking ahead to this game. After all, Cal is 2-0 against conference-leading Washington and 1-0 against 11th-ranked Arizona State. But there’s something about beating UCLA that means more than anything else.

And the same way the Golden Bears avenged an earlier loss to the Trojans in Los Angeles, by posting their seventh victory over a team rated in the top 50 of the RPI computer, I expect them to leave it all on the Haas Pavilion floor and avenge an earlier-season loss that was one of only two games they’ve lost by 15 or more.

Trust me, when Cal is running on all cylinders, it is unstoppable. And there is no other team in the Pac-10 better when playing at home than the Bears. They come into this game with a 16-1 record at home while the Bruins are no better than average with a 5-4 mark when toting a suitcase in hand. Give me the value in this one, as Cal emerges tonight with the one win it wants more than any other.

[Mr. IWS]

Las Vegas Sport Picks



NBA:

2* Bucks -7
4* Jazz -16

NCAA:

1* Weber St. -23
3* Pitt/Seton Hall over 145
4* TN State -2
7* UCLA -2

NHL:

2* Sabres/Islanders over

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Locks Club
10 FSU
7 Villanova
7 Dayton
6 Notre Dame
5 N Iowa
5 Indiana St

[Mr. IWS]

Young Gun Sports

4* Rockets

[Mr. IWS]

Malinsky
6- washington huskies
5- stanford
4- indy state
4- so.miss/memphis Under

[Mr. IWS]

Fairway Jay

20 Tcu

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Sports Club

NCAA:

Villanova -6
Troy -3.5
Fordham +19.5
Florida International -4.5
Illinois St/Creighton under 139

[Mr. IWS]

BobbyClarkSports...
NCAA:
Purdue/Ohio State under 130.5 Wager 770 to win 700
Temple/Dayton over 128 Wager 770 to win 700
Mississippi St -5.5 Wager 770 to win 700
Drexel -1 Wager 770 to win 700
Vanderbilt -1.5 Wager 770 to win 700

[Mr. IWS]

Special K
Spec K 10 Az State 7 NW Tex Tex a+m BYU

[Mr. IWS]

RAS

586 Santa Clara -3.5
640 Monroe -1
694 Idaho State -6
660 UCSB -5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

50 unit Nova -7

[Mr. IWS]

charliessports saturday february 28, 2009 plays. (early card)


cbb. georetown @ villanova over 142 (500*)
cbb. cleveland state+7 (30*)
cbb. iowa+6' (20*)
cbb. uconn-11' (20*)
cbb. depaul+1 (10*)
cbb. georgia tech+23' (10*) free play

[Mr. IWS]

stan lisowski
5* goy wright st

[Mr. IWS]

tom stryker
5* goy miss st

[Mr. IWS]

Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, February 28, 2009
$40.00 Guaranteed: Tonight we have isolated an ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT WINNER in College Hoops that will again be "in the bag" by HALF TIME! This play is so STRONG it can only be rated as a ONE AND ONLY COLLEGE HOOPS GAME OF THE YEAR! You can get this TOP RATED WINNER right now for just $40 and you MUST WIN this game or you will not be charged! Why should you get this game? Because we are 100-72 in Hoops this year! 2/28/2009

ONE AND ONLY COLLEGE HOOPS GAME OF THE YEAR
654 Vanderbilt -1.5 9:00 EST

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

Game: Notre Dame at Connecticut (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 150.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Notre Dame has certainly displayed the firepower to put up a lot of points, but the Huskies have one of the top defenses in the country, and that has been personified at home. The Huskies have played 15 home games, and are allowing a very stingy 59.6 points per game in those games. They have allowed just three teams to make it to 70 points in the 15-game stand. The Huskies have not reached 70 points themselves in their last four Big East home games. This one will have a very difficult time getting into the 150s as the oddsmakers suggests. As a result, I will play on the UNDER here.
Game: Oklahoma at Texas Tech (3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Texas Tech +9.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Oklahoma has not been the same team without Blake Griffin. They have dropped their last two games. The Red Raiders are definitely in a down year and have not had too much success in a highly competitive Big-12 conference this season. They have been much more competitive of late as the team gains experience, and have not lost by more than 10 points in their last three games. While the Sooners are piling up the wins, that hasn't gotten them the money when playing on the road against a team with a winning home record as they are just 20-41-3 ATS in their last 64 games facing that situation. The Red Raiders are 5-2 ATS at home against a team with a winning road record. I like them to stay close and get the cover in this one.
Game: Duke at Virginia Tech (3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Virginia Tech +6 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Hokies are sitting at 17-10. But, by losing three of their last four, they have put themselves firmly on the bubble for an NCAA Tournament bid. They will be a hungry team needing a quality win, and I expect an inspired performance here. Duke, at just 4-4 in the conference in their last eight games, has been a much more vulnerable team than past editions. That is especially true on the road where the Dukies are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven. They are not only 1-6 ATS, they have been outscored by a total of 14 points in those seven games. Virginia Tech may have 10 losses on the season, but they have had a lot of bad breaks as seven of the 10 losses have come by four points or less, so they have played close to just about everyone. There hasn't been a team yet to beat them on their home floor by more than four points and they are a live dog here, so I'll back them in this one.

Game: U S C at Stanford (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Stanford -1.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

There has been no place like home for this USC team on the season as the road has not been kind to them. They are now 1-6 on the road and it has cost them to slip to a 16-11 mark and on the tourney bubble. They have also been in a horrid slump as they have just one win to show for their last six games. The problem is mostly on the offensive end, where they have been held to 61 points or less in four of the six games. Stanford almost got the win at USC - dropping the game by a point and will be out to extract a bad taste from that one. The Cardinal is getting it done as a home favorite as they are 13-5 in their last 18 in that role. I like them to continue that success and get the win and cover in this one.
Game: Drake at Bradley (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Drake +215 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 6.5)

The Bradley Braves have had an up-and-down season. After opening poorly at 1-2, they went on a nice run where they went 9-3. The results have not been kind to the Braves since. They have struggled over the second half of the season going just 6-8 in their last 14 games. The Bulldogs were the surprise in the MVC a year ago, but certainly haven't snuck up on anyone this season. What they have done however, is played well against the top of the conference - especially on the road. The Bulldogs own upset wins on the road at the Conference Co-leaders, Northern Iowa and Creighton. They also own a 14-point win over this same Bradley team. I like Drake to get this one on the road and will play them on the moneyline.

Game: Eastern Kentucky at Murray State (8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Eastern Kentucky +240 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 7.2)

I have to say the Eastern Kentucky Colonels have been a surprise in the OVC. This team has come on strong after a four-game losing streak right after the first of the year, going 11-4 since. The offense has been consistently good as they have put up 70+ points in eight of their last nine, leading to a 7-2 mark. Murray State has been playing well themselves and beat this Colonels’ team on the road by eight, but that was way back in the first week of December and E. Kentucky has made great strides since then. The key here is the E. Kentucky offense that has generated 70+ in eight of their last nine games. Murray St. has had trouble all year against teams that can score. They are just 1-6 SU on the season when they allow 70 or more, giving E. Kentucky a good chance for the upset here, and I'll take them on the moneyline.

Game: Southeast Missouri State at Austin Peay (8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Southeast Missouri State +18.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Southeast Missouri State has truly had a lost season and has played with just seven scholarship players for most of the second half of the season. They have now lost 18 straight games. The oddsmakers have certainly made it difficult to play against this team with some high lines, and their backers have certainly benefited by going 7-4 ATS in their last 11 when a dog of +8.5 or more. Austin Peay has been an extremely streaky team this season. They have sandwiched a 6-12 season around a four-game and six-game winning streak. They are just 4-5 in their last nine, and aren't on the top of their game right now. This is simply too many points and SE Missouri St. stays within the inflated number here.
Game: Florida at New Jersey (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -140 (risk 3 to win 2.1)

The Florida Panthers have been a respectful .500 team on the road this season, but their offense of late has really slowed down to a crawl. The Panthers have managed just five goals in their last four games. They will be facing a Devils’ team that between Marin Brodeur and Scott Clemmenson, have recorded shutouts in three of the last four home games. The Panthers have been an UNDER-producing machine against the NHL Atlantic as they have played UNDER to a mark of 39-18-4 in their last 61. That fits well with the fact that the last seven times these teams have squared off, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0-2. I'll play this one to go UNDER the posted total.

Game: Colorado at New York Rangers (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on New York Rangers -160 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 2.5)

There haven’t been a lot of good things happening with this Rangers’ team, who have won just twice in their last 12 times on the ice, yet they are a mid-level favorite here. They have been a very favorable team to get behind in this role as they are now 19-9-1 when favored in the -150 to -200 range. The Avalanche have not been getting it done either, with just six of their last 20 resulting in victory, and just two of those on the road. When they are off a horrible game, losing by three or more goals, they have been a no-show in their next game dropping their last seven. This is a good spot for the Rangers to right the ship, and I'll back them in this one.

Game: Detroit at Nashville (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Nashville +135 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2.7)

The defending Stanley Cup Champion Red Wings are at it again with just 13 losses on the season, but nine of those have come on the road. Their recent road play has left a little to be desired as they are just 2-6 in their last eight. They have yielded 30 goals in the eight games, or 3.75 per contest. The Predators have played strong on home ice all season and have won their last two there. The Predators have gone 7-0 facing a team that scored two goals or less in their last game. The Red Wings have been struggling and are now playing their third game in four nights where they have struggled even more - going 1-4 in this situation. We have a live dog here, so I will back the Predators.

Game: Minnesota at Edmonton (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 5 -130 (risk 3 to win 2.3)

The Oilers have been about the same team at home or on the road. Their offense has not produced when needed, until recently where they have averaged three goals a game for their last eight, but have allowed 3.1 over their last 10. The Wild have been nothing to rave about on the offensive end, but something seems to happen to these teams when they square off. Their last 10 games have produced some shootouts, as three of them have seen at least eight goals scored and four others have seen six or more. They have averaged 6.4 goals a game in their last 10 meetings, and the lowest output has been four. This one will go OVER the posted total.

[Mr. IWS]

Alatex 20* Az. St. -1.5
Fla St. +1.5
Dayton -3
Miss. ST. -5
Cal +2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Docs

4-Unit Play #505 Take Oklahoma City +7 ½ Over Memphis (7:30 p.m. EST, Saturday)

No way the Grizzlies should be favored by this many over anyone, even the Thunder without Durant. The Thunder star rolled his ankle last night in the first quarter against the Mavs but their team still played well on the road and even sent the game into overtime. This Memphis team has lost six straight games and is really struggling. They have only been a favorite of more than six points twice this season and failed to cover both times. The Thunder are 5-2 ATS as a underdog of between six and 7.5 points. OKC has won and covered three of the last four meetings and their lone loss during that stretch was by six points. This is more of a fade of Memphis than a pick on OKC. We think the Grizzlies will likely win a slim one but they have no business laying this kind of chalk.



3-Unit Play #511 Take Sacramento/Utah UNDER 216 (9 p.m. EST, Saturday)

The Kings have been playing under their season average during their last four games, averaging just 97 PPG. We think they are in for a real tough offensive night tonight against a Utah team that has held their last three opponents at home under 90 points. This team gives up just 95 PPG at home this season, which means they are a pretty decent home defense. The Kings play very bad defense and we expect the Jazz to get their points, but in a game that is a likely blowout we feel that those crucial last few minutes for a high total might see the Jazz running out the clock and the refs failing to call fouls. Five of the last seven for the Kings have gone under and their fire sale during the trade deadline has further hurt this offense.



4-Unit Play Take LA Clippers +1 Over Charlotte (10:30 p.m. EST, Saturday)

We think the wrong team is favored here as we had this game capped at Clippers -3. Yes, the Bobcats have been one of the best teams in the NBA against the number, but road favorite is a role they are rarely placed in and one we don’t think they deserve. The Clips finally have their main nucleus of Baron Davis, Marcus Camby and Zach Randolph back on the court and they have played very well in their last two home games, nabbing convincing wins over the defending champs (Celtics) and also Golden State. In the last meeting the Clippers played the Bobcats very close on the road the whole game but had a disastrous fourth quarter. We think they play a full four quarters tonight at home and get the win in front of the home fans.

[Mr. IWS]

igz1 sports

Saturday Action !!
CBB
5* The Citadel -6 (-110)
3* Unc Wilmington +12.5 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

Fairway Jay

2/28/09
CBB
So Mississippi +23 (523)

2/28/09
CBB
Eastern Wash. +4.5 (696)
ANALYSIS:
Last game on the added board and a solid last home game (LHG) situation supporting the home underdog. Eastern Washington’s season is on the line, as they must win this contest to play in the Big Sky Tournament beginning March 7. A loss ends their season altogether, and we’re sure to get a focused and inspired effort. Add in the embarrassing 22-point loss to Portland State five weeks ago along with PSU’s 3rd place position secure and we know which team will be more motivated in this contest. Portland State relies heavily on the 3-point shot, having taken over 400 attempts from the arch in conference play, which is over 100 more than any other Big Sky team. Eastern Washington has 9 of their 12 total victories at home this season while Portland State is just 6-7 on the road and has dropped 4-straight Big Sky road games. Eastern Washington hung on for a needed win last Saturday at home over No. Colorado and coach Kirk Earlywine has stressed the importance of this game. Pressure and must wins can work both ways, but the opponent’s lack of motivation combined with Eastern Washington’s extreme effort should allow the Eagles to prevail with a 4’-point cushion.

2/28/09
CBB
20* Big Drive: TCU +4.5 (644)
ANALYSIS:
Last home game (LHG) for TCU and the Horned Frogs should bring one of their better efforts following eight losses in their last nine games. They get San Diego State at the right time, as the Aztecs have dropped three of their last four games including 4-straight ATS losses. This is also San Diego State’s final road game and the Aztecs are just 4-5 on the road and will be without star forward Billy White (knee) again, the leagues top FG shooter. The Aztecs come off a very disappointing home loss to BYU (a winner for us) in which they blew a 13-point halftime lead but were completely dominated by BYU in the second half. San Diego State lost their shot at a top Mountain West Conference (MWC) finish. With a pair of home games remaining, this does not figure to be a good bounce back spot against a TCU team that is trying to finish with a winning record and fight their way to any post season tournament bid. TCU has gone 10-4 at home and coach Jim Christian is still holding his players accountable despite recent struggles. Senior forward Kevin Langford scores 15ppg and junior center Zvonko Buljan quietly leads the MWC in rebounding despite playing 27 minutes per contest, and he’s been most productive scoring and rebounding his last five games. The Frogs played some pretty solid defense early season and into January, but then started to struggle when their offensive production really fell off which has led to less defensive effort and the prolonged losing. A closer look at their two most recent games shows that TCU held both Wyoming and New Mexico below their season shooting average while battling them on their strong home courts. This last home game situation combined with redemption against a struggling opponent should provide the necessary pride and energy from the Frogs. Those of you that have followed my late season basketball know that we have profited well supporting greater than or equal to .500 home teams off back-to-back losses playing with same season revenge against a winning team. That’s the final support we need to take TCU as our Underdog GOY.

2/28/09
CBB
California +2.5 (650)

2/28/09
CBB
Loyola Marymount +18 (626)

2/28/09
CBB
San Diego +9.5 (618)

2/28/09
CBB
Georgia State +14.5 (569)

[Mr. IWS]

M@linsky added

4 sac/utah under

[Mr. IWS]

teddy june


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Virgina Tech private players club

Kentucky

Oklahoma State

California

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass:

100 Steam Wash U

[Mr. IWS]

Frank Tapani
SATURDAY 200 DIME

DREXEL

"I am from South Philly and I have been watching Drexel all year. I've attended 10 of their home games this year alone. To say I know this team is an understatement. I was waiting for the line on this match up since the beginning of the year."

"Regardless of where my bankroll is at for the month, this was going to be a huge play for me but when I got the exact line I was looking for, I can't pass up a money making opportunity."

[Mr. IWS]

Docs

6* dayton

[Mr. IWS]

NSA's Selection
CBB 20* Arizona St -1.5
CBB 10* Wisc Green Bay +2
CBB 10* Villanova -6
CBB 10* Washington -7.5
CBB 10* Virginia Tech +6
NBA 10* Miami -5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass

300 Vandy
100 BYU, Wyo
50, Cal, IndSt, GaSt, Bradley

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

25 Pitt -10
10 Troy -3.5
5 Ind St --3
3 Richmond -7
5 76ers +2
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

ASA 10* Midwest game of year.......
Purdue

[Mr. IWS]

CTO
11* TX AM
10* G Mason
10* N Western

[Mr. IWS]

Rocketman Sports

UCLA




Rocketman

Southern Miss @ Memphis
Play:3* Southern Miss +23

Southern Miss is 9-2 ATS last 3 years against good defensive teams allowing 64 points per game or less after 15 or more game. Southern Miss is 13-4 ATS last 3 years against good defensive teams allowing 64 points per game or less. Golden Eagles are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 13.0 or greater. My four sets of power ratings have Memphis winning by only 10.19, 23, 22.27 and 17 points. We'll play Southern Miss for 3 units today!

[Mr. IWS]

SCORE
400 CONNECTICUT
400 WASHINGTON (cbb)
300 lsu
300 alabama
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

The real animal


Pick title: 3* Dayton -3
Pick Date: 02/28/2009
Pick description:
Great spot for Dayton off two road defeats including a two-point loss at Rhode Island this week. The Flyers are a perfect 16-0 at home this year and close out the regular season with Duquesne next Saturday. I went against Temple on February 13th against St. Joes and a very unlikely 18-0 run by the Owls enabled them to win by just two points in the end. What I love here is the Dayton defense at home allowing just 54 points a game. Curiously Dayton was off back-to-back losses last year when they beat Temple 77-66 on their home floor. Of course that Dayton squad wasn't 23-5 on the year like this season and needed three consecutive wins to end the regular season just to make the NIT. Dayton already owns double-digit home wins over Xavier and St. Joes at home. Dayton is 10-1 ATS their last 11 at home when coming off a SU road loss as an underdog.

[Mr. IWS]

HELMUT
Indiana state over 129.5
Davidson under 148.5

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan - NHL

Ryan’s 1st NHL 15* Graded Play of the Year

Money Line: 135 Montreal Canadiens

Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Montreal as they host San Jose slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 79-25 for 76% winners and has made 45.7 units since 1996. Play against any team against the money line and is an extremely tired team playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team in the second half of the season. Here is another system that has gone 156-159 for just 49.5% winners, but has made a whopping 53.3 units exploiting false favorites with the average play a +136 DOG. Play against a favorite against the money line that is a tired team playing their 4th game in 7 days and with the game taking place in February. San Jose is just 2-7 against the money line (-11.5 Units) against good offensive teams averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game in the 2nd half of the year this season; 3-8 against the money line (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing their 4th game in 7 days this season. Sa Jose looks to be quite tired as well and it reflects on the scoreboard. Although they have won 5 of their last 6 they have scored just 4 goals in 2 of these games. They have scored just 7 goals over their last 4 games. Montreal is playing very strong offense and has averaged 4 goals per game in their last 4 games. San Jose has one of the best PP units in the game, but Montreal can more than offset that strength with their 9th best PP killing unit. Take Montreal.

[Mr. IWS]

VERNON CROY

NBA Smash of the Month

New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
Play: NY Knicks +6

20 Units, Take the NY Knicks ATS, The Knicks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games as a dog of +5.0 to +10.5 and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning record at home. The Knicks have owned the Heat winning 6 of their last 7 games against them and the Heat are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on back to back days. The Heat are just 1-6 ATS when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game and they are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games against an Atlantic division opponent. The Heat are just 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games when favored by -5.0 to -10.5 points and the Knicks are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as a road dog. The Knicks are 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS against a Southeast Division opponent this season and they are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season after playing 3 consecutive home games. The Knicks are averaging 112.4 ppg over their last 5 games while the Heat are averaging just 97.2 ppg. Take the NY Knicks as my NBA Smash of the Month since I have them covering hands down tonight on the road.


NHL Game of the Year

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators
Play: Ottawa -145

25 Units, Take Ottawa ML, The Senators although they have struggled this season are the superior overall team here Saturday night and this game should not be close. The Leafs are just 1-5 in the 3rd game in a 4 night situation and the Senators are 7-1 in their last 8 games when favored by -110 to -150 at home. The Senators are 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing record and the Leafs are just 1-5 after scoring 5 or more goals in their previous game. The Leafs are just 4-11 in their last 15 trips to Ottawa and the home team is 7-3 in the last 10 games between these two teams. The Leafs have allowed an average of 3.8 goals per game on the road this season and they have had trouble killing penalties on the road with their opponents converting at 22.9% on the powerplay. Take Ottawa as my NHL Game of the Year.


NCAAB Slam Dunk of the Week

Milwaukee vs. Detroit U
Play: Detroit +2

20 Units, Take Detroit ATS, This pick falls into one of my top CBB systems and the Panthers have struggled on the road this season with a 2-11 SU record. The Panthers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games and the dog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 games between these two teams. The Panthers are just 9-33 SU in their last 42 road games and they have been out-scored by an average of 7.2 ppg on the road this season. The Panthers are shooting just 38.1% as a team over their last 5 games and the Titans are shooting 44.9% at home this season. The Titans have held their opponents to just 61.9 ppg at home while the Panthers opponents are averaging 71.1 ppg against them on the road this season. This is the same Detroit team that lost by just 5 points against the #1 Horizon Team (Butler) in their 3rd last home game and I look for them to end their 5 game losing streak today. Grab the points with Detroit as my NCAAB Slam Dunk of the Week.


SEC Bookie Buster of the Year

LSU vs. Kentucky
Play:Kentucky -4.5

25 Units, Take Kentucky ATS, This pick falls into one of my elite CBB systems and LSU has not beat the Wildcats at Rupp Arena since they pulled out a 64-62 win over 20 years ago in 1989. The Wildcats are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after failing to cover in their previous game and Kentucky is simply the better overall team at home today. The Wildcats are shooting 50.4% as a team at home this season while averaging 79.9 ppg and out-scoring their opponents by an average of 15.3 ppg. Kentucky has played solid defensively at home with opponents shooting just 37.6% against them while averaging just 64.6 ppg and the Wildcats have out-rebounded their opponents by an average of 8.3 rebounds per game at home this season. Kentucky is also the better FT shooting team at home today where they are shooting 77% from the line compared to LSU who is shooting just 66.7% from the line on the road this season. I look for Jodie Meeks who is averaging 25.1 ppg to have a huge game at home for the Wildcats today as they bounce back big after losing on the road to the Gamecocks. Take Kentucky as my SEC Bookie Buster of the Year.

[Mr. IWS]

stan sharp 4 unit goy northridge -5

[Mr. IWS]

RAS

VCU over 128

[Mr. IWS]

INDIAN COWBOY

Play: *2 Units. #508. Take the Chicago Bulls -1 over Houston Rockets (Saturday @ 8:30pm est). (POD)
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: *2 Units. #508. Take the Chicago Bulls -1 over Houston Rockets (Saturday @ 8:30pm est). We had a letdown yesterday as the Timberwolves barely even show up as despite we hit the CBB 5* GOM with Rider, we failed to cash in the NBA GOM. That brings the 5* Lifetime to 31-8 Now. The news is that we will end with a winning month of February, albeit small. We are up overall +10 units in Hoops with college ball as our saving grace. Let's cash today in the Association as well as in college to close the month up double-digits units. A bit of a let down from the +66 units in January, but it's much better than losing money. I feel good as we look ahead to Saturday Night's contest with the Bulls against the Rockets. Getting the Bulls at this price is solid. Look, this team comes off an embarrassing loss to one of the duds in the league in Washington (although Washington might be game at Milwaukee today) and they will look to bounce-back at home. Do you remember the last time Chicago was at home? They took care of business against the Magic. Why can they not do that here at home? With 66% of the public favoring Houston and the line moving in favor of Chicago, this is an indicator that money is coming in on the Bulls. And, remember, the Bulls have revenge from a 7 point loss earlier this year at Houston. Houston had McGrady that game but they will not have him tonight or most of the season. Yes, Houston is a good team. But, on the road, they are a bit different as their offense defense more than they want it to on Rafer Alston. I do love the fact that Houston comes off a monster win over the Cavs on primetime TNT only to face a Bulls team that comes off a terrible loss to Washington. This is a Saturday night game. The Bulls are ticked. They have revenge. They return home with that revenge. The Rockets have the backing of 66% of the public only to come off a very public nationally televised win which means they are prime for a let down here. When the Bulls played Orlando at home, they had double-figures from 7 players and frankly, they are good enough to put up double-digits from 8 players. This game will be lower scoring than the Magic game, but will be prototypical of that game. Remember, the Bulls feature constant scoring threats with the likes of Deng, Rose, Gordon, Hinrich, Salmons, Miller, Noah and Tim Thomas. The Bulls can play folks and they will be prime for a big game against the Rockets with revenge following an ugly loss. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS following a straight up loss and the Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Play: 2 Unit Play. #558. Take Purdue -9.5 over Ohio State (Saturday @ 4pm est).
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY SELECTION: *2 Unit Play. #558. Take Purdue -9.5 over Ohio State (Saturday @ 4pm est). We fell a few points short with our total yesterday and that brings us to 3-2 in cbb this week. All in all, it is our CBB that has helped us secure a winning month gaining +15 units as we gained an overall +10 units in the month of February. A bit of a letdown if you ask me from +66 in January. But, that's where money management comes into play and why it's great to have the Guarantee that we have with the service as I simply work until we make you money before you re-up. That's the confidence we have as we stay patient and plug ahead. Let's end the note in double-digit units of profit as we cheer on the Boilermakers at home against Ohio State. Yes, this is a lot of points and I nearly went with the hot Panthers of Georgia State to cover the big number against VCU. But, I'd rather roll with Purdue at home. This is similar to the Cavs in some ways against the Spurs in the NBA. The Cavs came off a tough TV loss only to bounce-back nicely and win the next time around in easy fashion against the Spurs on the road. Well, we have Purdue here, who come off a tough loss at Michigan and who continued to play hard the whole way. That was a must win revenge game for Michigan. For Purdue, this is a revenge game. They lost to Ohio State on the road earlier this year in OT 72-80. You don't think Purdue remembers that loss? Purdue does have Hummel back and has been able to beat the likes of Michigan State at home by 18, Penn State by 14, Michigan by 18, Iowa by 22 and Wisconsin by 13. So, is it all that impossible they don't lay the wood on Ohio State with revenge at home? This game will be televised and I think Purdue can blast them to a 15 digit or better win here. Remember, Purdue gets calls at home and I think this game will be similar to when Ohio State lost by 18 to Illinois on the road. Furthermore, whenever 60% of the public rides a public dog, usually that is a reason to question the dog to begin with. I think this game starts out somewhat tight and then Purdue has a big second half as they have done at home for the most part of this year. Purdue 70, Ohio State 55.

[Mr. IWS]

lenny del genio

icon play his highest rated northeastern-4.5