2-28-09

[Mr. IWS]

Spritzer/GOY/ BYU/

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang:
20 Dime Villanova, Florida State, LSU
5 Dime James Madison, Rice, Virginia Tech

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NCAA

Basketball (NCAA)

UNDER georgetown/villanova

Game: Georgetown vs. Villanova Game Time: 2/28/2009 12:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Georgetown and Villanova to finish UNDER the total. The Wildcats have been playing a lot of high-scoring games of late and that's helped provide us with a very generous over/under number this afternoon. In fact, its one of the higher over/under lines for a game involving Georgetown this season. I believe that its too high. Yes, Georgetown did play a very high-scoring game (94-90) at Syracuse on Valentine's Day. (Note that 26 of those points came in overtime, so the final score wasn't quite as ridiculously high as it first appears.) However, even including that game and we find that the Hoyas' last six games have still averaged only 135 points. Toss out the 26 "overtime points" and those games would have averaged closer to 130. The Hoyas managed a mere 58 points last time out. It was the eighth time in their past 11 games that they scored 67 or less and the fifth time, during the same stretch, that they failed to score more than 60. This afternoon, they'll be facing an under-rated Villanova defense which is allowing only 62 points per game on this floor, while holding opponents to 39% shooting. Despite their big offensive numbers, due to the strong defensive numbers and the high over/under lines, the Wildcats have still seen six of their 11 lined home games finish below the number. That brings the UNDER to a profitable 23-14 in their lined home games the past three seasons. Four of the last five games in this series have also finished below the total. Those games averaged only 118.6 combined points with the last game here at Villanova finishing with a final score of 58-55. Look for this afternoon's game to also prove lower-scoring than most are expecting. *Feb. TOM


VANDERBILT

Game: South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt Game Time: 2/28/2009 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Vanderbilt Reason: I'm playing on VANDERBILT. The Gamecocks come in with the better record and off a big win over Kentucky, they're the team which is currently "on a roll." However, with this game being played at Nashville, the Commodores are currently slight favorites for good reason. The Gamecocks did win by 10 when these teams faced each other at South Carolina exactly one month ago. That's not all that surprising though, as both teams are much stronger on their homecourt. South Carolina is 4-5 on the road. Vanderbilt is 11-4 at home. Note that the Commodores are also 14-3 SU the last 17 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. Yes, the Gamecocks come off a big win over Kentucky. However, that was at home and its not always easy to follow up that type of victory with another one. The Commodores can attest to that as they just beat Kentucky by double-digits and then followed it up by losing at Florida. That loss was costly, as they'd been hoping to make the race in the SEC Eastern Division a five-team affair. Off that disappointing defeat, they suffered a letdown last time out, losing to Georgia. They're finished "moping" now though and I expect them to bounce back with a huge effort. Even with last month's loss, the Commodores have still won five of the last six meetings in this series. They're 45-7 their last 52 games here and are holding opponents to just 62.1 points per game (38.3% shooting) here on the season. I expect homecourt to be the difference and look for the Gamecocks to fall to 6-12 SU/ATS the last 18 times they were road underdogs (or pick'em) of three points or less.




WASHINGTON

Game: Arizona vs. Washington Game Time: 2/28/2009 3:00:00 PM Prediction: Washington Reason: I'm laying the points with WASHINGTON. This is an absolutely huge game for the Huskies. That's because they're on the verge of making history. With Thursday's thrilling 73-70 OT win over Arizona State, the Huskies need just one win in their last two conference games to take at least a share of their first Pac-10 title since 1985. Wins in both, or one win and losses by the three second-place teams, and Washington will get its first outright conference title since 1953. The Huskies don't want to rely on anyone else though and definitely want to take care of business themselves. As forward Quincy Pondexter had to say: "It's so close we can taste it." The Huskies are coming off a momentum-building victory over Arizona State. After failing to put it away in regulation, they regrouped and won it on OT, showing the type of resolve this team has. Senior guard Justin Dentmon, who had a key turnover at the end of regulation, led the way with six points in the overtime period. Star Jon Brockman had this to say of his teammate: "Anyone would have put their head down and been out of it for the rest of the game after that turnover. Justin came back and won the game for us." Conversely, the Wildcats are coming off back to back losses, more recent a demoralizing double-digit defeat at Washington State. I used the word "demoralizing" as they were up by double-digits but were outscored 43-24 to close the game. Of course, that's a sign of the times as these Wildcats aren't as strong as many of the Arizona teams we've come to know in the past. With Thursday's loss, the Wildcats are now an ugly 2-8 on the road, going 4-6 against the number. On the other hand, the Huskies are 15-1 at home, going 9-5 ATS in lined games here. While wrapping up the Pac-10 is obviously their primary focus, it's also worth noting that the Huskies, who lost at Arizona, are 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) on the season when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. The Huskies, 7-1 ATS on the season when playing with one or less day's rest in between games, know that opportunities like this are few and far between. They're outscoring teams by an 81.6 to 66.9 margin on this floor, including a 9-point win over UCLA on 1/24. I won with the Huskies in that game and I expect them to win this one in far more convincing fashion. *GOY

[Mr. IWS]

Dr.Bob

Early Saturday Best Bet
**BUTLER (-7) over Cleveland State
09:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 536
Butler has a tendency to relax against bad teams, but the Bulldogs play their best when challenged by a good team and they are 24-10-3 ATS when not favored by more than 10 points in 2 seasons under coach Brad Stevens, including 12-3-2 ATS this season. Cleveland State is better than their season rating in games in which guard D’Aundray Brown has played (they struggled in the 8 games he missed), but my ratings still favor Butler by 8 ½ points and the Bulldogs apply to a very good 45-7-2 ATS situation that plays on good teams against good teams that are seeking revenge (Butler won at Cleveland State by 2 points). Cleveland State has been a solid 34-23 ATS in all games the last two seasons, but the Vikings are 0-6 ATS away from home against teams with a win percentage of .666 or higher when they are not getting at least 12 points. Butler will be fired up in their final home game and a win here clinches the conference for the Bulldogs. I’ll take Butler in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer 25*- The Citadel
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

15* Daytime Dominator - Villanova
Weekend Wipeout - Mississippi
20* Perfect Storm - Creighton
Las Vegas Insider - Northwestern
15* Rivalry Revenge - BYU

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob
Saturday Daytime College Opinions
RICE (+9) over Houston
Rotation #566 – 1 pm Pacific
Rice has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games and the Owls have finally found an offensive rhythm – making 46% or more of their shots in 6 of their last 8 games (50% plus 4 times) after making 46% or higher in just 6 of their first 19 games (against mostly very bad teams). Houston is slumping a bit, with losses in 2 of their last 3 games (all 3 spread losses) and Rice applies to a solid 95-40-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation today. My ratings favor Houston by 9 points, so the line is fair, but I’ll pass on this game as a Best Bet given Houston’s good record under coach Penders as a road favorite (11-5 ATS, including 4-0 ATS after a loss). I’ll lean with Rice at +9 or more.

BYU (-5 ½) over Utah
Rotation #576 – 2 pm Pacific
Both of these teams are playing well right now, as Utah has won 8 straight games and BYU has covered the spread in 7 consecutive games. When two teams are streaking it is usually the home team that covers and BYU is 58-24-2 ATS as a home favorite of 14 points or less over the years (although only 1-4 ATS in that role this season). My ratings favor the Cougars by 6 ½ points and they’d apply to a 24-4-2 ATS subset of a 150-79-9 ATS home revenge situation if the line goes down to -5 points or less. I certainly wouldn’t mind laying 5 points. I’ll lean with BYU at -5 ½ or -6 points and I’d take BYU in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Millionaire - ACC GOY - VA TECH
Billionaire - Vanderbilt
Insider - Kentucky
Moneymaker - Washington St.
Chairman - Nevada

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob
2 Star Selection
SANTA CLARA (-4) over Portland
28-Feb-09 03:00 PM Pacific Time
Santa Clara is a better team than their 14-16 record suggests and the Broncos nearly beat the Pilots up in Portland despite their poor out-side shooting. The Broncos lost that game 52-53 (as a 4 ½ point dog) while only making 5 of 21 3-point shots compared to 6 for 13 from beyond the arc for Portland. Portland is a good 3-point shooting team (41.5%), but Santa Clara has made 34.9% from 3-point range for the season and I don’t expect such a randomly big discrepancy in 3-point shooting in this game. Most telling in that first meeting was how Santa Clara big man John Bryant (6-10, 305 pounds and 2nd in the nation in rebounding) dominated the Pilots’ skinny post tandem of Robin Smeulders and Kramer Knutson. Bryant had 15 points and 22 rebounds while Smeulders and Knutson combined to miss all 11 shots they took for a total of 1 point and 7 rebounds. Bryant has been playing like a man with NBA aspirations lately and he should dominate the paint again while Portland isn’t as likely to be as fortunate in the long range shooting category as they were in the first meeting. My ratings favor Santa Clara by 4 ½ points and the Broncos apply to a solid 73-23-6 ATS last home game situation. Portland hasn’t beaten a team as good as Santa Clara on the road this season (their best road win was a 3 point win at UC Davis, who I rate as 6 points worse than Santa Clara. I’ll take Santa Clara in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 or less.
2-Stars at -4 or less.

3 Star Selection
Wyoming (pk) over AIR FORCE
28-Feb-09 03:00 PM Pacific Time
Air Force played an easy non-conference schedule and the Falcons’ brand of basketball tends to work best on teams that are not used to their style of play. Non-conference foes know how to play against Air Force and the Falcons’ lack of talent has been exposed in conference play, as Air Force is 0-13 straight up in the conference (2-11 ATS). Air Force is now 3-31 ATS in regular season conference games when not getting 12 points or more against a team with a win percentage of greater than .600, including 0-6 ATS this season and that includes a 59-72 loss as a 7 ½ point dog at Wyoming. There are 5 good teams in the Mountain West and Wyoming finds themselves in 6th place while struggling against those good teams (2-6 straight up and 3-5 ATS), but the Cowboys are 4-1 straight up and 5-0ATS against the other 3 teams in the MWC (TCU, Colorado State, and Air Force), with the only loss coming by 1 point as a 7 ½ point dog. Air Force hasn’t come close to beating one of the 5 good teams in the conference and the Falcons are 0-5 straight up and 0-5 ATS against TCU, CSU, and Wyoming. My ratings favor Wyoming by 4 ½ points, which gives us good line value on the Cowboys today. I’ll take Wyoming in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars at -1 ½ or -2 points.
3-Stars at -1 or better, 2-Stars at -1 1/2 or -2.