3-4-09

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

15-Dime LSU

5-Dime Missouri

Free (comp) = RICE UNIVERSITY

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NBA

Basketball (NBA)

NETS

Game: Boston Celtics vs. New Jersey Nets Game Time: 3/4/2009 7:35:00 PM Prediction: New Jersey Nets Reason: I'm taking the points with NEW JERSEY. The Nets have been a "streaky" team at the betting window all year long. They began 2009 by going on a 5-0 ATS run. That was followed by an 0-4 ATS run. They covered three of their next five games and then went on another 4-0 ATS run. That was followed by an 0-5 SU/ATS stretch through the middle of February. However, they've snapped out of it and are currently enjoying another hot streak, having gone 4-0 ATS (3-1 SU) their last four games, including last night's 99-95 come-from-behind win at Milwaukee. After that game, Vince Carter was quoted as saying: "At the time in the season where we need wins, we could've easily folded. I'm just glad to see guys really coming together..." We're getting a little extra line value, due to the fact that New Jersey played last night. The majority of the betting public will expect the "rested" Celtics to have more "energy." However, it should be noted that not all teams react to playing back to back games in the same manner. While many teams struggle, the Nets actually thrive in these back to back spots. Indeed, they're 11-5 ATS the last 16 times that they played their second game in two days. As you probably know, the Celtics are currently playing without Kevin Garnett. Lesser known players Brian Scalabrine and Tony Allen are also out of the lineup. Not surprisingly, they haven't been playing their best. In fact, they've won just one of their last three games and that was at home, by only five points. They were 0-3 ATS in those games. In addition to the fact that they're desperately fighting for their playoff lives, the Nets are also playing with "double-revenge," having already been blown out twice by the champs in January. In other words, they should be fully focused on the task at hand. On the other hand, with very big games vs. Cleveland and Orlando on deck, it should be easy for the Celts to get caught looking past the Nets, a team which they have long had their way with. I expect the suddenly surging Nets to be the "hungrier" team and I look for them to improve to 10-5 ATS the last 15 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. *Best Bet
UNDER rockets/jazz

Game: Houston Rockets vs. Utah Jazz Game Time: 3/4/2009 9:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Rockets and Jazz to finish UNDER the total. I played on the Rockets to finish 'over' the total yesterday. However, that was at home vs. a defensively-challenged Toronto team which had been allowing 116 points per game through their previous five games and which has now allowed six straight opponents to reach triple-digits. Tonight's game vs. the Jazz, who are allowing just 94.6 ppg through their last five, figures to play out much differently. These teams have already played a pair of high-scoring games against each other. Both those games were at Houston though and a closer look reveals that one of them went to double-overtime and finished with only 192 "regulation" points. With tonight's game being played at Utah and the Rockets playing their second game in two nights, I expect a lower-scoring contest. The Rockets have seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times that they played the second of back to back games. Those five games averaged just 188.8 combined points, despite the fact that two of them came against the high-scoring and defensively-challenged Knicks. Note that the Rockets have also seen the UNDER go a profitable 13-7 their last 20 trips to Utah. Despite last night's game vs. the Raptors finishing above the total, the Rockets have seen nine of their last 16 games dip below the total. Meanwhile, we also find the UNDER at 5-1 the last six times that the Jazz took the floor. The Jazz, who last played on Sunday, have seen the UNDER go 9-4 this season, when playing with two days rest in between games. Look for this evening's game to also prove lower-scoring than most are expecting with the UNDER improving to 4-1 the last five times that Utah played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 200 to 204.5. *Blue Chip

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NCAA

Basketball (NCAA)

GEORGIA TECH

Game: Miami (FL) vs. Georgia Tech Game Time: 3/4/2009 7:30:00 PM Prediction: Georgia Tech Reason: I'm taking the points with GEORGIA TECH. Even struggling teams often come up big in their home finale. We saw that with yesterday's selection as an injury depleted South Florida squad defeated Cincinnati, a team which really needed a win, by double-digits. Like the Bulls yesterday, playing their home finale, I expect the struggling Yellow Jackets to also rise to the occasion and provide the home fans with a rare victory. The Hurricanes won their last game, at Virginia, the team with the worst record in the ACC. Although Georgia Tech is slightly ahead of Virginia, and in my opinion a stronger team, the Hurricanes are laying an even bigger number for tonight's game, providing us with excellent line value. This is a tough spot though. They're playing their second straight road game and they've got their home finale, a "revenge" game vs. NC State, on deck. Note that even with their win at Virginia, the Hurricanes are still a poor 1-4 their last five road games. They went 0-1 SU/ATS the only other time that they played the second of back to back true road games this season. Its certainly been a disappointing year for the Yellow Jackets. However, they've had numerous close losses and I believe that they're better than their record indicates. Their last few games have all been against elite teams and I believe that this offers a much better shot at a victory. Note that Georgia Tech is 25-14 ATS the last several seasons after three or more consecutive losses and 22-13 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three or more straight games. The Yellow Jackets, who lost by a single point to the Hurricanes here last season, are also 9-3 ATS the last 12 times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 point range, winning seven of those games outright. While I'll gladly grab the generous points, I expect them to step up and win this one outright. *Annihilator
HOUSTON

Game: Memphis vs. Houston Game Time: 3/4/2009 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Houston Reason: I'm taking the points with HOUSTON. As you're probably aware, the Tigers haven't lost a conference game in ages. However, they've already wrapped up another regular season conference title and I believe that this will prove to a very tough spot. The Tigers beat a mediocre Southern Miss. team, now 4-9 on the road, by 16 points last time out. However, that wasn't enough to cover the inflated pointspread. After the game forward Robert Dozier acknowledged: "Guys are tired..." Playing their final road game of the season, I won't be surprised if the Tigers get caught looking ahead to their home finale and to much more meaningful tournament games, which will be coming up in the near future. That will prove costly though as they'll be playing at one of the tougher CUSA venues tonight and they'll be facing an underrated Houston team which should be fully focused on the task at hand. Shooting poorly, the Cougars were down 49-41 with 5:22 to play vs. Rice in their last game. They dug deep though and rallied for an important 56-51 victory. While he wasn't impressed with his team's shooting, coach Tom Penders was quoted in the Houston Chronicle as saying: "...But on the plus side, we only turned it over seven times, and I thought we played great defense and showed a lot of poise at the end." That's the type of victory a team can really build positive momentum from. Note that Houston hadn't won at the Owls' Tudor Fieldhouse since 1996. More importantly, note that the Cougars are a profitable 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven times that they held their previous opponent to 60 points or less. While they won on the road last time out, the Cougars have been a much stronger team at home. Indeed, they're 17-2 their last 19 at Hofheinz Pavilion, where they have won 10 of their last 11 conference games. For the season, the Cougars are outscoring teams by a whopping 79.8 to 62 margin here at home. With a home game vs. SMU (worst record in the conference) on deck, the Cougars know that if they can win tonight, that they'll have a great chance at finishing the regular season with 20 victories. While the Tigers, 0-2 ATS the last two times they were road favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range, have had another excellent season, let's not forget that they lost three key starters from last year's national runner-up team. With a long and exhausting regular season winding down, facing a powerful offensive club, I expect those personnel losses to finally take a toll on the Tigers here. Look for the revenge-minded Cougars to give their guests all they can handle with an excellent shot at scoring the outright victory. *CUSA GOY

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- UTEP
Millionaire- Missouri
Insiders Circle- Pittsburgh
Billionaire- NC State