3-19-09

[Mr. IWS]

Maddux Sports

EARLY NCAA TOURNAMENT PICKS
#713 - NCAA - 3 units on Butler +2.5
#718 - NCAA - 3 units on BYU -2
#722 - NCAA - 3 units on UCLA -7
#734 - NCAA - 4 units on Washington -5.5
#738 - NCAA - 4 units on Gonzaga -12.5
#827 - NCAA - 3 units on Stephen Austin +12
#847 - NCAA - 4 units on Cornell +13
#851 - NCAA - 3 units on Wisconsin +2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence Playbook

5* Butler over LSU

[Mr. IWS]

Tony George | CBB Sides
dime bet742 Penn St. -1.0 (-110) BetUS vs 741 Rhode Island
Analysis:


Penn State -1
CHEAP Line for Penn State who is on a strong homecourt (16-3 on the Year), and who played in the tough Big 10 this season beating numerous NCAA Tourney teams in here. Rhode Island off a win at Niagara and travel again to College Station on back to back roadies in 2 days time. HUGE advantage for a solid Penn State team off a buzzer beater win against a good George Mason team. Like Penn State at home with their depth and tougher schedule.
Play 1 Unit on Penn State

[Mr. IWS]

Evan Altemus | CBB Sides
triple-dime bet734 Washington -5.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 733 Miss. St

Analysis:
Washington is one of the more disrespected teams in the entire country. They won the Pac 10 regular season title and had several impressive wins throughout conference play. They struggled at the start of the year but closed the season in impressive fashion. Now they get to play their first game of the tournament very close to home in Portland, Oregon. Mississippi State is just happy to be here after winning the SEC Championship. Their biggest advantage over teams is their big man Jarvis Varnado, but Washington will be able to take away that strength with the dominant inside play of Jon Brockman. The Huskies are one of the best rebounding teams in the country, and they have outstanding guard play to complement Brockman. Mississippi State really struggled in non-conference play with losses against Washington State, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Charlotte, and San Diego. Now they have to travel across the country and play almost a home game for Washington. The Bulldogs struggled away from home all season, and they won?t be able to keep this game close. Look for Washington to get a dominant opening round win.
4 UNIT SELECTION

[Mr. IWS]

BALFE

NCAA Basketball
BYU -3 over Texas A&M
American +16.5 over Villanova
Michigan/Clemson Under 137.5
Morgan State +16.5 over Oklahoma

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Memphis -20 over CS Northridge

The Tigers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, while the Matadors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. Memphis is a team that will be on a mission in this NCAA Tourney as they felt they should have been a number 1 seed. The Tigers defense is one of the tops in the Nation as they have allowed just 56.9 ppg and 36.2% shooting overall this year and it has been even stingier down the stretch were they have allowed just 44 ppg on an unheard of 29.6% shooting from the floor in their last 4 games. Now that's playing some defense. Oh year they won those 4 games by an average of 21.8 ppg. CS Northridge has had a good offensive year as they have averaged 73.8 ppg overalland 69.6 ppg away from home, but facing Big West defenses is a lot different than facing this one. Speaking of defense, that is not something the Matadors do great. CS Nothridge has allowed 70.2 ppg on the year, including 73.3 ppg when playing away from home. The Matadors have played 7 non-conference foes away from home and they have allowed 78.9 ppg in those games. Bad defense in that spot and now they will take on the 67th ranked scoring offense in the country, as the Tigers have put up 74.1 ppg on the year. I really have a hard time seeing the Matadors putting more than 52 or 53 on the board in this one, while I do see Memphis hitting 75+. The Tigers will be playing with a chip on their shoulders and that cannot be good news for the Matadors today.


3 UNIT PLAY

NOTRE DAME -4.5 over New Mexico

The Lobos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win., while the Fighting Irish are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. We all know how the Lobo's play in The Pit, but this isn't the Pit and they have struggled when taking to the road this year. The Lobos have gone just 6-6 in their true road games, plus another 0-3 in their neutral site games. The Irish stumbled ast home during the middle of the year after haveing a long winning streak at home, but this team is still very tough at home, where they are 13-3 and have outscored their opponents by 12.5 ppg. Defense has not been a strong suit for the Irish this year, but they do allow just 63.1 ppg on 39.9% shooting at home and they have allowed just 64 ppg on 36.8% shooting in their last 5 overall. The Irish have had somne problems scoring of late, but this team still has put up 76.5 ppg on thier home floor this year, including 86 ppg in their non-conf home games. New Mexico can score but their defense has been less than stellar of late as they have allowed 73.8 ppg in their last 5 games. With the way the irish play defense and score at home they should have no problems covering the spread vs a Lobos team that is like a fish out of water when they leave The Pit. Notre Dame by 8+ here.


2 UNIT PLAY

Texas A&M +2.5 over BYU

The Aggies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog, while the Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. The AgGies had a stron g finish to their season as they had won their last 6 regular season games before losing to Texas Tech in the Big 12 tourney. Down the stretch they had a win at Nebraska, a 15 point home win over Texas and a 10 point home win vs a very strong Missouri squad. BYU has had a nice year themselves as they were 25-7 overall, but their offense has struggled down the stretch as thyey have averaged 67.4 ppg in their last 5 games, which is 10 points lower than their season average. The Aggies offense has taken off of late as they have averaged 79 ppg in their last 5 games. Both teams have played well defensively this year, but I believe the Aggies offense will do more damage than BYU's in this one and get a solid upset win here.


1 UNIT PLAYS

UConn/ Chattanooga Under 145

The Under is 4-0 in Mocs last 4 neutral site games as an underdog, while the Under is 5-1 in Huskies last 6 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater. Ok, Let's throw out that 6 OT game vs the Cuse for a moment. If we dso that then we will see that the previous 12 UConn games have averaged just 131.8 ppg, with only 2 of those games scoring more than today's total. UConn games have averaged 141 ppg bon the year, while their games away from home have averaged just 131 ppg. UConn plays great defense and should be able to hold a strong Mocs offense doiwn, while their own offense does enough to get the win here. I just don't see more than 140 in this one.


Maryland +1.5 over California

The Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss, while the Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. The Bears are just not playing well defensively right now as they have allowed 77.8 ppg in their last 5 games. look for the terps to take advantage and move on in the Big Dance.

[Mr. IWS]

Karl Garrett

40 DIMER - WESTERN KENTUCKY....10 DIMERS - CLEMSON & MEMPHIS
40 DIMER - WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS



I was not a big believer in this Illinois team during the regular season, and now that guard Chester Frazier is hurting, I am less of a believer in Bruce Weber's bunch.



Even if Frazier can go, how much can he really contribute with his hurt hand? I say not much, and I say the Illini are in for a dog fight in Portland tonight.



Western Kentucky is no fluke, as they come into this one having won their last 7, and they have also covered their last 5.



Illinois is struggling, as the Illini have dropped 3 of their last 4 both straight up, and against the spread.



The Hilltoppers have the experience to give this relatively inexperienced Illini team a tussle for the full 40-minutes.



Take the points here, as Western Kentucky may just be able to spring the outright as well.



10 DIMER - CLEMSON TIGERS



Yes, Clemson faltered down the stretch, but I will give Oliver Purnell's team a shot here against a Michigan team who are only in because of early season upset wins over UCLA, and Duke.



The Wolverines have struggled down the stretch as well, as Michigan is just 5-5 straight up their last 10 games. There is a good chance Clemson stretches this one out early, and we don't have to sweat at all laying the 5-points the Tigers are currently favored by as I type this.



Don't worry about the late season swoon the Tigers are going through, it won't bite them in this one, as the matchups favor Clemson hands down.



Lay it!



10 DIMER - MEMPHIS TIGERS - 12:25 PM



Talk about laying it, I say to "lay it" with the # 2 seeded Tigers.



John Calipari's team owns the nation's longest winning streak, yet the tourny committee does not believe they are strong enough to garner a # 1 seed. You know damn well that Calipari will make this his rallying cry, and last year's finalists will take no prisoners along the way.



Memphis has really been bothered this season against the spread as they are 22-11 overall in lined games this year, and they have covered 18 of their last 24 coming into this game, including their last pair, and 4 of 5.



Northridge is happy to be "dancing", but it will be a quick one for them, as they have not seen the likes of the Tigers in their regular season conference play.



As Dicky V would say; "It's Rout City, BAY-BEEEE!!!!!!"



Lay it with Memphis!
Today's Complimentary Selection

Another comp play winner last night on Bowling Green plus the points, as the G-Man is now 7-2 the last 9 days for free.



Going tonight, lay the points in Portland as Gonzaga enjoys the "home cooking" against Akron.



The 'Zags Spokane campus is not too far away from the Rose Garden, so expect to see plenty of Bulldog backers in the stands this evening. Not that Mark Few's team will need much support, as the Bulldogs have won their last 9, and even better still is the fact they have covered their last 3, and are 5-1 against the spread their last 6 lined games, all in the favored role.



Akron won the MAC tournament for their automatic ticket to the Dance, but they did close the regular season by losing 3 of their final 5.



This is a Gonzaga team that has plenty of experience, and the G-Man is calling for the 'Zags to be dancing late in this tourny.



Lay the double-digits, as Gonzaga makes it look easy in their opening round.



5? GONZAGA
(on a 1? to 5? basis)

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday March 19, 2009

2:30p
The Prezz NA
Northern Iowa r731
+9.5 (-110) / 5 units


2:55p
The Prezz NA
Maryland r725
+2.0 (-110) / 6 units


3:00p
The Prezz NA
Tenn Chattanooga r715
+21.5 (-110) / 4 units

9:40p
The Prezz NA
Morgan State r727
+17.5 (-110) / 5 units


9:40p
The Prezz NA
Binghamton r707
+23.0 / 4 units

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton



Thursday's Big Dance winners ...
30 Dime: UCLA (minus the points vs. VCU) ... NOTE: If this line is sitting at 7 1/2, invest in some insurance and buy the half-point and only lay 7. DO NOT get beat by the hook in this game!



10 Dime: WASHINGTON (minus the points vs. Mississippi State)



5 Dime: WESTERN KENTUCKY (plus the points vs. Illinois)



5 Dime: CHATTANOOGA (plus the points vs. UConn)

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan



600? VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH - Analysis by 4 p.m. eastern



100? WESTERN KENTUCKY -



100? MORGAN STATE -

[Mr. IWS]

Michael Cannon



Thursday's Plays...


20 Dime –



MICHIGAN



Take the points with Michigan over Clemson in the South Region.



I like the Wolverines mainly because of their coaching edge with John Beilein. This is a guy who gives his opposition fits with his 1-3-1 zone defense. You can be sure that Clemson hasn’t seen anything like this, and with the Tigers propensity for slipping down the stretch I don’t expect them to have an answer for it.



The Tigers also ranked last in the ACC in 3-point field goal percentage allowed, which is a death sentence going against Beilein’s perimeter oriented offense.



Michigan has jelled late in the season, covering six of its last eight games (4-1 ATS in its last five as a dog). The Wolverines have proven capable of competing with some of the nation’s best programs, knocking off Duke and Ucla this year.



Clemson is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral-site games and 1-4 ATS in its last five overall.



Take the points with Michigan and don’t be surprised to see them win outright here.



10 Dime –



LSU



Take Lsu as the small chalk over Butler.



I know Butler is a favorite among the public, as this marks their 3rd straight appearance in the Big Dance. They advanced to the second found last year, but fell to Tennessee in overtime.



But there’s no substitute for experience, and the Tigers have the edge here. First-year head coach Trent Johnson led Nevada and Stanford to the Sweet Sixteen in his previous six seasons before taking over in Baton Rouge. Lsu also has a talented, athletic frontcourt led by Marcus Thornton, the SEC Player of the Year, and Tasmin Mitchell.



Those two will make life tough for Butler’s Matt Howard, who didn’t face this kind of talent in the Horizon League.



Butler has three freshmen in its starting lineup and believe me they’re going to feel the pressure of tournament play here.



Lsu defends the perimeter well which will keep the long-range shooters of Butler at bay, and the Tigers won’t give the ball away easily, as they averaged just 12 TO’s per game this year.



Butler failed to cover in five of its last seven overall and I like the experience and coaching of Lsu to get them the win here.



Take Lsu minus the points as they grab the win and cover.



5 Dime –



TEXAS A&M



Take Texas A&M as the small dog over Byu in the first round of the NCAA tournament.



This is a rematch of an opening-round tournament game last year, and I expect the same outcome, as the Aggies prevailed 67-62 in that game.



The Cougars haven’t fared well in past tourneys, going 11-26 SU all-time, including 0-2 SUATS under coach Dave Rose.



Texas A&M enters the tournament on a nice run, despite blowing a 21-point second-half lead to Texas Tech and losing 88-83 in the Big 12 tournament. Prior to that loss the Aggies had won six in a row and are on a current 10-3 ATS run.



I like the balance A&M has on offense and I believe that will allow them to get consistent open looks.



Byu has failed to cash in four of its last five tournament games and is also on ATS slides of 1-4 at neutral sites, 5-11 on Thursday and 1-6 after a non-cover.



Texas A&M is on ATS runs of 17-5 at neutral sites, 7-3 in non-conference play, 6-1 in the NCAA tournament, 4-1 on Thursday, 6-0 as a dog, 10-1 as a neutral-site underdog and 19-7 after a SU loss.



Take the points with Texas A&M as they get it done over Byu.



MARYLAND



Take Maryland as the small dog over Cal this afternoon in the West Region.



The Terps made a nice run in the ACC tournament to gain entry into the Big Dance and I expect them to continue their run.



Maryland’s interior deficiencies aren’t likely to be exposed by Cal, as the Bears rely on their perimeter game for the brunt of their offense.



The only problem is Cal hasn’t been knocking down enough 3-pointers recently, going 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS down the stretch.



Maryland has the edge in the backcourt anyway with Greivis Vasquez, who is capable of lighting up anyone on any given day. The Terps as a team have risen to the occasion at various times this year with upsets of Michigan State, North Carolina and Wake Forest.



Cal hasn’t shown that it can beat that kind of opposition this year and I like the Terps big-game experience to pull them through this one.



Maryland is on positive ATS runs of 9-4 overall, 4-0 at neutral sites, 5-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 against winning teams and 7-3-2 in non-conference action.



Take Maryland as they grab the win.

[Mr. IWS]

Tony Weston


THURSDAY'S PLAYS
30 Dime Western Kentucky

15 Dime Mississippi State

10 Dime Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Fagro Guaranteed Selections
Date: Friday, March 20, 2009
$50.00 Guaranteed: ***** went 12-8 ATS (60%) during the conference tourneys and his TOP RATED REPORTS were king! During the regular season, his 10* GAME OF THE YEAR reports went an AWESOME 8-4 ATS (66.7%)! His 9* and 10* GOY Tournament reports went a TREMENDOUS 8-2 ATS (80%) for a combined 16-6 ATS (72.7%)! 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR goes Friday! Do not miss out on this MONSTER! Guaranteed! 3/16/2009

**10** 1ST RND GAME OF THE YEAR *16-6 RUN* Wisconsin comes into the NCAA Tournament as a number 12 seed meaning it along with Arizona was the last teams to get into the field of 65. It may come as a surprise to many that the Badgers were seeded so low but not me. I didn’t think they deserved to be here in the first place. The Badgers finished strong, going 7-2 over their last nine games but included in those seven wins were four victories against teams not making the tournament including two against Indiana. Wisconsin quietly bowed out of the Big Ten Tournament with a loss against Ohio St. which was its 9th loss this season when it had a lead with under six minutes remaining. Sure, that said the Badgers have hung around in their games this season but it also tells us that they do not have what it takes to win these games down the stretch. Solid defense has been the difference in year’s past but that is not the case this year. After leading the nation in scoring defense last year, the Badgers haven’t been nearly as efficient this year. When Indiana shot 54 percent against Wisconsin in Sunday’s regular-season finale, they hit the postseason allowing opponents to shoot 44.0 percent from the floor which was good for ninth place in the Big Ten. After the Buckeyes game, they are allowing 44.4 percent shooting and here is the real kicker. Wisconsin is one of only four teams in the entire tournament that is getting outshot on the season (Michigan, Tennessee-Chattanooga and Portland St. are the others). The schedule has been tough as it is ranked 11th in the nation but in comparison. The Seminoles have played the 13th ranked schedule and they have outshot opponents by +4.9 percent. Over the last five games, Florida St. is +10.5 percent in shooting margin while the Badgers are -5.7 percent in shooting margin. That is an enormous difference. Florida St. made a great run through the ACC Tournament and this is a dangerous NCAA Tournament team. The Seminoles are long and athletic and they are dangerous both up top and down low and a combination of the two is often the main ingredient for advancing in this tournament. Guard Toney Douglas finished the regular season by scoring in double figures in 19 straight games, including 19 or more points in his last 15 ACC games while averaging 23.5 ppg during that span. Center Solomon Alabi leads the ACC with 67 blocked shots, and the Seminoles finished the regular season with twice as many blocked shots (180) as their opponents (89). The Badgers will no doubt be keying on Douglas but as mentioned, the defense is far from what it used to be like as there is no lock down defender similar to Michael Flowers from last year. The Seminoles are allowing opponents to shoot 9.3 percent less than what the Badgers are allowing opponents to shoot over the last five games. Considering Florida St. has played Duke twice and North Carolina in that span, it is even more impressive. Wisconsin is just 3-10 ATS in the second half of this season when playing a team with a winning record. It has struggled against the better defensive teams, going 1-9 ATS in the second half of the year against teams allowing 42 percent shooting or better. Florida St. meanwhile is 7-1 ATS following a loss this season and it has won those games by nearly 10 ppg. If there is a team that matches up well with Pittsburgh in this bracket, it is the Seminoles, just look at the first meeting this season, and we could see a Sweet 16 rematch next weekend. 10* Florida St. Seminoles

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Rickenbach



3/19/2009
12:20:00 PM LOUISIANA STATE TIGERS (-2)
over Butler Bulldogs
Scott Rickenbach’s March Madness Game #714 – 1* (regular play) LSU Tigers (-) vs Butler @ Greensboro, NC @ 12:20 PM ET – Butler is a “trendy” choice here but it’s for the wrong reasons. The Bulldogs have been a “Cinderella Story” in the past and so people have latched onto that and love having Butler as an underdog. The result for us is line value as this line continues to creep lower and lower. We successfully faded Butler in the Horizon League Championship Game when they lost outright to Cleveland State! Among the top tier teams in the Horizon League, those with 11 conference wins or more, the Bulldogs lost to all but one of them at least once. In addition to losses to Wisconsin Green Bay, the Vikings, and Wisconsin Milwaukee, the Bulldogs also lost in non-conference action against Ohio State. Simply put, this team is a notch below prior versions and it has a lot to do with the Bulldogs youth. The inexperience of Butler will show up in a big way now that the Big Dance is underway! LSU is a gritty SEC team that has good size and does the “little things” on the floor that often don’t show up in a box score but yet equate to wins in the standings! This is a big part of the reason they enjoyed so much success in Trent Johnson’s first season as the head coach of the Tigers. LSU has Chris Johnson in the paint and that senior is joined on the floor with seniors Marcus Thornton and Garrett Temple. Thornton is a big-time scorer and Temple is a strong defender. Also, Bo Spencer does a fantastic job running the team even though he’s only a sophomore. Also, even though Thornton is considered the “go-to guy” on offense, Tasmin Mitchell, a junior, has hit critical shots throughout the season and is a very strong rebounder. We understand the “affection” for Butler here but the Bulldogs are much younger than the Tigers and also will be at a size disadvantage at every position on the floor. Yes, LSU was “tripped up” some late in the season but, after a ten game winning streak from late Jan to the end of Feb, the Tigers came up flat against Vandy after a big road win at Kentucky. That didn’t leave a lot of “fuel” in the tank for their regular season finale at Auburn and so they fell well short. As for the SEC Tourney, they knocked off Kentucky again before falling short against Mississippi State. However, the Bulldogs are a very solid team and strong defensively. That had a lot to do with the Tigers taking ten more shots from the field than the Bulldogs and yet still losing. You can bet that LSU is not going to shoot 31% from the field again here! We are betting on that too and the Tigers are offering tremendous value here against an over-rated Butler team! Play LSU minus the points as a regular selection

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Valentino

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Thursday's 30 Dime winner!
30 DIME -- UCLA (minus the points vs. VCU)

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

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25 Dime Louisiana State



25 Dime Texas



25 Dime Oklahoma



15 Dime UCLA



10 Dime Texas A&M

[Mr. IWS]

Al DeMarco

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Thursday's Pick
5 Dime - Gonzaga

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan



600? VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH - Analysis by 4 p.m. eastern



100? WESTERN KENTUCKY -



100? MORGAN STATE -

[Mr. IWS]

Beat Your Bookie

Daily Premium Hoops & Hockey Winners for Thursday


NCAA Basketball


100* Play Butler (+2.5) over LSU (NCAA)

LSU is 4-13 ATS coming off two or more consecutive UNDER the totals
LSU is 8-25 ATS coming off an upset loss as a favorite
Butler is 13-1 ATS when playing as an underdog the last 3 seasons


100* Play Chattanooga (+20.5) over Connecticut (NCAA)

Connecticut is 3-12 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 12.5 points or
more
Connecticut is 0-7 ATS when playing in March road games
Connecticut is 2-10 ATS when playing in 1st round tournament games
Connecticut is 1-6 ATS over the last 7 games


100* Play Binghamton (+21.5) over Duke (NCAA)

Duke is 0-3 ATS when playing in 1st round tournament games
Duke is 2-6 ATS when the total posted is between 130 and 139.5 points
Duke is 2-8 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 18.5 to 24 points

[Mr. IWS]

NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
4* Texas -4 over Minnesota (NCAAB)
3* Oklahoma -16.5 over Morgan St. (NCAAB)
3* Texas A&M +2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Las Vegas Sport Picks

NBA:

2* Warriors/Lakers over 233

NCAA:

2* LSU -2
2* Northern Iowa +9
4* TN-Chat +21
4* Maryland +2
6* WKU +5
7* Akron/Gonzaga over 133
9* Memphis -19

[Mr. IWS]

Sebastian

20* RADFORD NC OVER
30* CSN
50* CHATTANOOGA
100* NO. IOWA
100* WASH

[Mr. IWS]

Asa 5*
Washington Huskies

[Mr. IWS]

Drew Gordon


1. 200,000? UCLA

2. 50,000? Minnesota

3. 50,000? Illinois

[Mr. IWS]

Sebastian
Steam play 100* Gonzaga

[Mr. IWS]

CALIFORNIA SPORTS
5* TOURNEY GAME OF YEAR
TEXAS

4 MEMPHIS - NORTHRIDGE OVER
4 CHATTANOOGA
4 CLEMSON
3 North carolina - radford under
3 old dominion - citadel under

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Rickenbach
Top Play - UCLA
Reg Play - LSU, MS St, Mary

[Mr. IWS]

ASA
5* Wash
3* Memph U
3* BYU

[Mr. IWS]

Gameday 4 Gonzag 3 UCLA

[Mr. IWS]

The Real Animal

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Pick title: 3* Northern Iowa +8 1/2
Pick Date: 03/19/2009
Pick description:
After hitting just 38 and 34 percent from the floor in the semifinals and finals of the Big 10 Tournament last week, Purdue didn't exactly blow me away as being too impressive. I sense the Boilermakers could get beat today. They were 1-3 SU in their final four regular season games losing to Michigan State, Northwestern, and Michigan. From January 28th to March 8th, Purdue was 1-4 SU on the road. They were 2-9 ATS away from home against good shooting teams or those that hit 47 percent or better from the field. I like the fact that Northern Iowa was 7-0 ATS this year after the midway point of the season (15th game) when facing opponents with a winning record. They were 7-1 ATS on the road this year against opposition that won 60 percent or more of their games this year. Since December 14th, Northern Iowa was an INCREDIBLE 8-0 ATS AS AN UNDERDOG! That includes 7 OUTRIGHT WINS! I love the balance on this team with five starters averaging 8.4 points per game or more. This team plays solid defense allowing 63 points a game. This is a nice number of points to get considering the expectations are for a low scoring game with the posted total in the mid 120's. Plus it doesn't hurt knowing the Panthers have been off 11 days to prepare and certainly watched Iowa play three games in three days last weekend. Take the puppy Panthers here

[Mr. IWS]

NSA's Selection
CBB Texas A&M vs BYU 12:30 PM EST 20* BYU -2.5
CBB Maryland vs California 2:55 PM EST 20* California -1.5
CBB No Iowa vs Purdue 2:30 PM EST 20* No Iowa +8.5
CBB Butler vs LSU 12:20 PM EST 10* LSU -1.5
CBB Miss ST vs Washington 5:00 PM EST 10* Washington -6
CBB Radford vs North Carolina 2:50 PM EST (Opinion) North Carolina -25
CBB Tenn Chat vs Connecticut 3:00 PM EST (Opinion) Connecticut -20.5
CBB CS Northridge vs Memphis 12:20 PM EST (Opinion) Memphis -19.5

[Mr. IWS]

CHARLIE

cbb.
butler vs lsu over 127' & texas a & m vs byu over 139 (500* 2 team parlay)
cbb. cal st northridge +20 (30*)
cbb. north carolina va radford over 162' (20*)
cbb. north carolina -25 (20*)
cbb. uconn-20' (10*)
cbb. texas a&m+2 (10*) free play

[Mr. IWS]

Jim hurley inner circle

2 stars on northern iowa +8.5
2 stars on lsu -2
2 stars - byu -2.5

[Mr. IWS]

helmut

3/19/09 CBB BYU Under 139.5 -110 (718)

ANALYSIS: These teams both met last season in the opening round of the NCAA tournament and it was a hard fought game played down to the wire. The game played to a total of 118 total possessions and only went over the total by one point where both teams shot the ball well from the field. We saw the Aggies play slower pace games early in the season against up-tempo opponents in LSU, Arizona and Alabama which all ended up being lower scoring games. I think it is in the best interest for the Aggies to keep the pace slower as they did last season because they are not the most fluid offensive team and is sometimes are plagued by turnovers and shooting funks. The Cougars were the top defensive team in the Mountain West Conference and rank #22 in the nation in defensive efficiency.

[Mr. IWS]

Helmut

BYU Under 139.5

These teams both met last season in the opening round of the NCAA tournament and it was a hard fought game played down to the wire. The game played to a total of 118 total possessions and only went over the total by one point where both teams shot the ball well from the field. We saw the Aggies play slower pace games early in the season against up-tempo opponents in LSU, Arizona and Alabama which all ended up being lower scoring games. I think it is in the best interest for the Aggies to keep the pace slower as they did last season because they are not the most fluid offensive team and is sometimes are plagued by turnovers and shooting funks. The Cougars were the top defensive team in the Mountain West Conference and rank #22 in the nation in defensive efficiency.

[Mr. IWS]

IndianCowboy
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks - Thursday March 19, 2009 7:05 pm
Pick: 4 unit(s) ATS: Atlanta Hawks -6 (-110) (Play of the Day)



4 Unit Play. #702. Take the Atlanta Hawks -6 over the Dallas Mavericks (Thursday @ 7pm est). I just wrote a detailed blog article about the Hawks and how they have been playing even better without him in the lineup as Maurice Evans has stepped up nicely. The Hawks have covered 6 contests in a row:

defeated Sacramento 119-97 – covering the -12 spread (W)
defeated Portland 98-80 – covering the -4 spread (W)

defeated Indiana 101-87 – covering the -6 spread (W)

defeated Utah 100-93 – covering the -1.5 spread (W)
defeated New Orleans 89-79 – covering the +1.5 spread (W)

defeated Detroit 87-83 – covering the -2.5 spread.

The Hawks have also done well of late in fourth quarters:

4th Quarter against the Kings: 27-11, 4th Quarter against the Blazers: 26-19, 4th Quarter against the Pacers: 26-23, 4th Quarter against the Jazz: 27-18, 4th Quarter against the Hornets: 22-19, and 4th Quarter against the Pistons: 24-23.

In short, the Hawks are playing very well at home, they look to win their 7th straight, they lost to the Mavs earlier this year by a bucket, the Mavs are still a bit dinged up and have been shaky on the road of late losing the Lakers understandable), GS, New Orleans and OKC. I can see the Hawks getting their revenge and playing well today as they will look forward to this game. Again, no Josh Howard as he is out indefinitely and I like how the Mavs come off a win against Detroit although they nearly coughed it up in a big way. Look for the Hawks bench to step up today as this team has become deeper with the absence of Williams. The Hawks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games and 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning SU record meaning they show up well against the better teams in the league.

Good luck,
Indian Cowboy.









Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Texas Longhorns - Thursday March 19, 2009 7:10 pm
Pick: 4 unit(s) ATS: Minnesota Golden Gophers +4.5 (-110) (Play of the Day)



4 Unit Play. Take Minnesota +4.5 over Texas (Thursday @ 7:10pm est). If you wait, you might be able to get a better line closer to tip-off as the public is all over the jockstrap of Texas in this contest. I'm glad we cashed with Oregon State last night outright over Houston. That comes off the heels of Oakland over Kent the other night for a 2-0 start to the week in college ball. For today, let's kick off the NCAA Round 1 with a winner on the hardwood with another potential outright winner in Minnesota. The line sits at +4 and has not budged. This is despite the fact that in a public consensus this morning that over 71% are riding Texas here. I have written extensively that I am not the greatest fan of Texas this year. I really enjoy watching Barnes's coach and I think this year he has done wonders. He has done a lot with a crop of players that are not his most talented bunch. In fact, I think A.J. Abrahms is a bit overrated. I believe people are really forgetting all that Minnesota has accomplished this year. Remember, Minnesota went toe to toe with Michigan State in the conference championship. Minnesota is extremely well coached and Tubby knows how to spot weaknesses in his opponents. And Texas has a ton of weaknesses. Remember, Texas was very vulnerable all year long on the road. This team lost to Nebraska, A&M, Kansas State at home, Oklahoma State on the road and Arkansas on the road. This Texas team I think underestimated Baylor who defeated them. Now, Texas did beat Villanova, but the Villanova early in the year to the Villanova now is different imo. Tubby Smith is a solid big game coach. I personally think this game is a tossup. I like the team shooting the 71% in free throws and who plays sound defense. In a total of 126.5, the 4.5 points is nice (it might be 5 for you). Plus, this is a nice public fade here and I think Minnesota will take out A.J. quickly and will require another player to step up. Plus, when Minnesota gets a lead, they sit on it like a beast and will slow this game down to a snail's pace which should make Texas feel uncomfortable and frustrated. Congrats Tubby, you have done it once again proving that you can coach anywhere and even recruit in a non-basketball state like Minnesota. I hope the Kentucky Athletic Department feel like fools - because they are. Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games while the Longhorns are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tourney games as a small chalk favorite under 6.5 points.

Good luck,

Indian Cowboy.

[Mr. IWS]

kbhoops

The NBA POD will be out by 6 eastern. The final card for todays NCAA Tourney is below. Lets get it going!!

3* Memphis UNDER 131.5
3* Butler +1.5
3* California -1.5
3* Washington -6
3* BYU/Tex A@M UNDER 139.5
2* Texas -4.5

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp | CBB Sides
double-dime bet732 Purdue -8.5 (-110) BetUS vs 731 Northern Iowa
Analysis: Stan is Betting PURDUE today. Stan notes that the Big 10 is generally not perceived as a Conference that dominates and blows their opponents out. With that said most of the square money around town is coming in on N. Iowa in this game as most expect this to be a close game. Purdue put it all together in the Big 10 Conference tournament and will ride that winning momentum here against a out manned N. Iowa team. Stan has Purdue winning by 12-15 points here. TAKE PURDUE as STAN SHARP'S BIG DANCE OPENING BLOWOUT and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

[Mr. IWS]

d malinsk 4*

GAME: Maryland @ California Mar 19, 2009 2:55PM
SPORT: College Basketball Picks
PICK: Maryland
Offered at: 2 WSEX
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #725 MARYLAND over CALIFORNIA
2:55 Eastern

We wanted to wait this one out until the market move to Cal reached its peak, and now that +2 has become available across the board there is not hesitation to back the better team in this value range, and also one that matches up quite well.

Not much was expected from Maryland this season because of an uninspiring front-court, and when the Terrapins were rocked 108-91 at North Carolina on February 3rd it appeared that they had reached rock-bottom, and might not make any kind of post-season tourney at all. But as great coaches do Gary Williams reached back at that darkest moment. In the locker room of the Dean Smith Center he put in writing that the Terrapins would beat then Tar Heels in their rematch at College Park, and asked for any players that also believed to sign their names. It worked. As part of a late-season surge Maryland beat Carolina 88-85 at home in overtime, and the team is playing with an entirely different confidence level now.

There were also some personnel adjustments, with Sean Mosley entering the starting lineup at guard and Eric Hayes coming off the bench, and it is a move that worked for both players. Mosley adds a defensive and rebounding presence at the position, while a pure scorer like Hayes can often be at his best coming off the bench – he broke his former career high of 19 points twice in last weekend’s A.C.C. tourney, scoring 21 points against N. C. State and 20 against Duke (from Williams - "I think Eric Hayes -- maybe because of his background as being the son of a coach -- he gets a chance to watch for a couple minutes. He's able to see some things that help him when he gets in. And he knows that in the second half he's going to be in there most of the time.")

The insertion of Mosley may not have mattered more in any game than it will in this one. It is the size and defensive ability of the Maryland guards that keys the matchup, with Mosley’s 6-4, and the 6-6 of Greivis Vasquez, making it tough on Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher to find their usual open looks on the perimeter, and we will also see the 6-2 Adrian Bowie on 5-10 Randle as well. The Cal guards combined to knocked down 128 triples this season, while averaging 33.0 points per game, and if they are negated the rest of the arsenal is nothing special at all, particularly a defense that allowed 44 percent shooting, and only generated 401 turnovers in 32 games. This is a team that lacks post-season experience (two NIT games in three years, and a quick bow-out in the Pac 10 tourney last week); and does not merit the favorite’s role in this setting.

[Mr. IWS]

dr canada

canadiens over 5.5
oilers over 5.5

[Mr. IWS]

NSA's Selection
CBB Texas A&M vs BYU 12:30 PM EST 20* BYU -2.5
CBB VCU vs UCLA 9:50 PM EST 20* UCLA -7.5
CBB Morgan St vs Oklahoma 9:40 PM EST 20* Morgan St +16.5
CBB Maryland vs California 2:55 PM EST 20* California -1.5
CBB No Iowa vs Purdue 2:30 PM EST 20* No Iowa +8.5
CBB Butler vs LSU 12:20 PM EST 10* LSU -1.5
CBB Western Kentucky vs Illinois 9:55 PM EST 10* Western Kentucky +5
CBB Miss ST vs Washington 5:00 PM EST 10* Washington -6
CBB Akron vs Gonzaga 7:25 PM EST 10* Akron +13.5
CBB Minnesota vs Texas 7:10 PM EST 10* Minnesota +5
CBB Radford vs North Carolina 2:50 PM EST (Opinion) North Carolina -25
CBB American vs Villanova 7:20 PM EST (Opinion) Villanova -16.5
CBB Binghamton vs Duke 9:40 PM EST (Opinion) Binghamton +20.5
CBB Michigan vs Clemson 7:10 PM EST (Opinion) Michigan +5
CBB Tenn Chat vs Connecticut 3:00 PM EST (Opinion) Connecticut -20.5
CBB CS Northridge vs Memphis 12:20 PM EST (Opinion) Memphis -19.5

More added

[Mr. IWS]

Gregg Price

10* Minnesota
5* Rhode Island
5* Michigan
4* Northern Iowa
4* American
4* UCLA

[Mr. IWS]

VEGAS RUNNER

UConn 2*
Illinois 4* GOM

[Mr. IWS]

Robert FerRringo

3-Unit Play. Take #710 Texas (-4) over Minnesota
You want to talk about backing into the NCAA Tournament. I honestly and truly have no idea what Minnesota is doing in this tournament. I think they are an awful team and other than one fluke win over Louisville back in mid-December this team has done absolutely nothing to justify its berth. The Gophers have lost seven of their last 11 games and 9 of their last 14. They did not beat Purdue, Michigan State, or Michigan in the Big 10 this year, and their only wins in conference after Jan. 16 were against Indiana (twice), Northwestern (twice), and Wisconsin and Illinois with both games at The Barn. Minnesota has been pathetic on the road this year and when I look at this team I just don’t see it.

Say what you will about Texas – about how they underachieved this year and about how overrated they are – but they have wins against Villanova, UCLA and at Wisconsin. They also played Michigan State much, much tighter than Minnesota did in any of its three attempts. The core of this Longhorns squad has played in six NCAA Tournament games over the last two years and Rick Barnes has won at least one game (and coached in 10) in the tourney in each of the past three seasons. This Texas team has a shot at redemption here. They have a shot to salvage a disappointing year. And that makes them dangerous. Texas’s weakness is it’s point guard situation. But the Gophers don’t have the guards to really exploit Texas’ shaky backcourt. A.J. Abrams is easily the best player on the floor and I just think that Texas’ big men are simply better than Minnesota’s inexperienced group. Texas has four double-digit scorers to Minnesota’s one and we’ve seen the Tubby Smith NCAA Flameout before (that is why he got bounced from Kentucky).

2.5-Unit Play. Take #734 Washington (-6) over Mississippi State
This play falls into the exact same systems that I used last year to score a nice top play winner with Xavier in the first round of last year’s tournament. The crux of the system is on two things: 1) a top seeded team that was upset in its conference tournament, and 2) an underdog that just made a run and won its conference tournament. Last year it was Xavier, which got bounced early out of the A-10 tournament, meeting the SEC Cinderella Georgia. This year we have a Huskies team that has played very strong basketball most of the year going up against another SEC underdog.

No. 4 seeds that are off a straight-up loss are 26-10 ATS in their first round game. If they are off a loss and a favorite of 9.0 or less they are a solid 16-3 ATS. Further, underdogs that are getting 3.0 or more points that are coming off a win as an underdog of 6.0 or more are a terrible 21-42 ATS in their first round game. Now, the line on the Miss. State game against Tennessee closed at 5.5. But I think that the reasoning is sound and that it fits this system.

Next, Washington has not been a great road team over the last few years. But they are playing in nearby Portland, which is a long way from SEC country for Mississippi State. I think that the Huskies are underrated and coming from an underrated Pac-10 this season. I believe that their experience and their balanced scoring will lead the way, and I look for Jon Brockman to really go at Jarvis Varnardo. Brockman has been getting it done for four years against NBA-caliber forwards and centers in the Pac-10 so he isn’t going to be scared of Varnardo. I like the Huskies to pull through late after getting behind early, and I like them to send home the SEC reps from Mississippi State with an 11-point loss.


2.5-Unit Play. Take #730 Clemson (-5) over Michigan (
I really think right now that people are not giving this Clemson team enough credit. This Tigers team has proven itself against some of the top teams in the country over the last two seasons. And right now they have a Big 10 team teed up in their sites and I think that they could roll in this one. I know that Michigan is a “sexy” sleeper pick right now but I’m not buying this young team making many waves.

Ever hear of the ACC-Big 10 shootout? Who ALWAYS dominates that series? The ACC, right? Well why should we expect it to be any difference here. Clemson is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against the Big 10 while Michigan is 1-5 ATS against the ACC. This one is about relative conference strength and I don’t think there is any doubt that there is better basketball being played in the ACC. The Tigers won at Illinois this year while Michigan really floundered away from home – including a five-point loss at Maryland and a 15-point loss against Duke – while compiling just a 6-11 road/neutral record.

The Tigers are more athletic and – and this is key – I like their guard play significantly more than I like Michigan’s. The Wolverines enter the tournament just 7-10 since mid-January. And much like Minnesota their wins were against Northwestern (twice), Minnesota (twice) and then a couple home wins. That’s not at all impressive. Clemson is just 1-4 in its last five games. But since mid January five of their eight losses have come to North Carolina, Wake Forest and Florida State. Not too shabby. I love Trevor Booker and Michigan doesn’t have anyone to matchup with him on the inside. And although Manny Harris can be explosive I think Clemson will key on him and be able to hold him down a bit. And Clemson has two guys who are just as explosive as Harris in the backcourt in K.C. Rivers and Terrence Oglesby.


2.5-Unit Play. Take #726 California (-1.5) over Maryland
I really feel like the Pac-10 is getting no love from the public and certainly no respect from the NCAA selection committee. I believe that this is a very dangerous Cal team and I think that if they can get out of this first round game they are a team that can make some serious noise. I think Mike Montgomery has this team pointed very securely in the right direction and that the talent that this team has in the backcourt is as good as anything you can find in the country.

Maryland has been playing very good ball to close the season. But other than a stunning overtime win at home against North Carolina and a neutral site win over shaky-as-hell Wake Forest, I can’t say that I have seen many quality wins on the Terps’ schedule over the last month-plus. In fact, heading into the ACC Tournament this team was just 6-9 in its last 15 games with the wins coming mostly at home (Miami, UVA, Va. Tech) or at the expense of North Carolina State. That doesn’t impress me. And I also wonder if the Terps expelled so much energy just to get to the Big Dance if they have anything left.

Cal is the No. 1 3-point shooting team in the country. And those boys are legit on the perimeter. If you can knock down shots – and Cal runs a great offense – then you can win games in the NCAA Tournament. Cal won at Washington. They won at Arizona. They won at Utah and at UNLV. Those are no-joke road wins. The Terps were just 4-8 in road/neutral games prior to their tourney. I love Jerome Randle. And I don’t think that Maryland has the size underneath to take advantage of the Bears’ weakness. Cal has better scoring differential, shooting and assist-to-turnover ratio.


1.5-Unit Play. Take #721 UCLA (-7.5) over VCU
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 137.0 UCLA vs. VCU
You want to talk about disrespected – how about the team that’s made three straight Final Fours and coming one game short of another piece of the Pac-10 title getting a No. 6 seed! That’s ridiculous! And what’s worse, Ben Howland and his team knows all about it. Howland’s numbers when he has extra time to prepare are so ridiculous that I’m not even going to state them here. This team is way underseeded and they are playing a big public underdog. Everyone loves VCU for what it did to Duke a few years ago and they know all about Eric Maynor. But that was a soft Blue Devils team and there is nothing soft about this Bruins club. They are known for their rugged defense and who do you think they are going to be keying on? And what is VCU going to do when Darren Collison, one of the most accomplished point guards in college over the last 30 years, locks him up? UCLA has the size inside to really pound VCU on the boards and on the interior. Further, teams off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are notoriously poor performers in the first round. Add on top of that the fact that VCU was not great on the road in the nonconference portion of the schedule and the fact that UCLA has absolutely destroyed some opponents this year – 16 wins of 15 or more points – and I think that the Bruins can take care of business.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #723 Cal-Northridge (+20.5) over Memphis

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 132.0 Cal-Northridge vs. Memphis
This is a total system play. The other thing that I like is that Memphis is so “underrated” and “disrespected” by the selection committee and the general public that they are overrated and given too much respect. This team showed at home against Tulane in the conference tournament that they have a hard time getting up for weaker opponents that they know they are better than. Especially earlier in the day. It’s 11:30 a.m. local time. You think Memphis is going to have it’s game face on? I don’t. Throw on the fact that this game is the only one on today’s card where the public is banging one team at more than 75 percent action and we’re in business.

No. 2 seeds favored by more than 18 points are just 16-25-1 ATS in their last 42 games, and if that favorite is coming off back-to-back ATS wins they are just 53-90 ATS. Playing against No. 2 seeds that covered the spread in their last game by more than 10 points is a solid 10-5-1 ATS angle and add on top of that the fact that No. 2 seeds have been the biggest ATS underachievers, especially in Round 1, over the last 10 years and we have ourselves a play. Just close your eyes and hope for the best! It’s not going to be pretty, but the numbers suggest that we’re in a decent spot.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #707 Binghamton (+22) over Duke
No. 2 seeds have been one of the weakest ATS seeds in the tournament over the last 10 years so it behooves us to play against them almost blindly. Binghamton features a lot of transfers from other larger schools and you know that they will be way, way up for this game to get a crack at the Blue Devils. Duke hasn’t covered a first round game in several seasons and could be due for a slight letdown after their sweet ACC Tournament run. No. 2 seeds favored by 18 or more points are just 16-25-1 ATS over the last several years. And I understand that no one is going to confuse Binghamton for an ACC school. But routs of Maryland and Virginia near the end of January were the only wins of 20 or more points for this Duke team since the first of the year. This club won’t have the benefit of the Cameron Crazies. And after their weak showings in the first rounds of the last two tournaments we have to fade the Blue Devils on principle until they prove that they will cover these fat lines.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #711 Radford (+25.5) over North Carolina
I definitely hate to mess with North Carolina. But count me amongst those that think the absence of Ty Lawson is having as much of a mental effect on the Heels as it is a physical one. They simply weren’t very good in the ACC Tournament without him and Lawson will be on the bench today as well. Without their leader the Tar Heels lose some of their quick-strike capabilities, especially after made baskets by the opponents. Radford is a team that is used to scoring points. They are one of the higher scoring teams in Div. I. So they aren’t going to slow down on offense even as the game gets more and more out of reach. They’ve scored 80 or more points in six of their last seven games and It’s not as if the Tar Heels are a very defensive-minded club. Radford has some size and they have some experience playing together. The Heels really stopped beating teams by 30 points or so in mid-December, even though it took the oddsmakers months to catch up. And that was with Lawson. I see no shame in a solid 21-point win for the Tar Heels and that’s a win-win for all involved.

1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #732 Purdue (-3.5) over Northern Iowa AND Take #737 Akron (+18) over Gonzaga

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #721 UCLA (-2.5) over VCU AND Take #732 Purdue (-3.5) over Northern Iowa

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 124.5 Purdue vs. Northern Iowa

[Mr. IWS]

Steven Budin-CEO
THURSDAY'S PICK

25 DIME



GONZAGA

[Mr. IWS]

SIXTH SENSE

2% TEXAS A&M/BYU OVER 139.5 No Higher than 139.5

2% RADFORD/N. CAROLINA UNDER 163

3% MICHIGAN/CLEMSON OVER 138 This is a 2% play if the total is higher than 138

2% VILLANOVA -16.5 No Higher than -17

3% BINGHAMTON/DUKE UNDER 137.5

2% MORGAN STATE/OKLAHOMA UNDER 135.5

2% W. KENTUCKY/ILLINOIS UNDER 126

2% UCLA -8

2% OKLAHOMA -16.5 No Higher than -17

2% ILLINOIS -5

[Mr. IWS]

igz1 sports

Thursday Action !!
CBB
5* Under 131.5 (-110) Northridge vs Memphis
4* Uconn -20.5 (-110)
3* VCU +8 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

Dave M@linsky
6* Gonzaga
5* Under Duke
4* Oklahoma

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: Matt FAGRO Sports
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Michigan Wolverines @ Clemson Tigers - Thursday March 19, 2009 7:10 pm
Pick: 3 units ATS: Michigan Wolverines +5 (-110)



Clemson started the season 16-0 and expectations grew once again only to see the Tigers tumble again. They went 7-8 in their last 15 games including a first round loss in the ACC Tournament against lowly Georgia Tech. This is nothing new. Last season, Clemson started the season 10-0 and 12-1 only to finish 12-9 in their final 21 games including a first round NCAA tournament exit against Villanova. Two years ago, Clemson started the season 17-0 only to finish 4-9 in its final 13 regular season games then lost in the first round of the ACC Tournament and had to settle for an NIT invitation. Want more history? Three years ago, it was an 11-0 start and a 7-11 finish along with a first round ACC Tournament loss and another NIT bid. This tells us two things. First, the non-conference schedules have been a joke and those cupcake wins do nothing in preparation for the ACC. This years non-conference schedule was ranked 260th in the nation. Second, the coaching is a real issue. Oliver Purnell has put a good resume together in his six years at Clemson but he has yet to get the Tigers over the hump. Last year was a classic example as he led them to their first NCAA Tournament in nine years only for them to bow out after one game. With the athletes this team has, they should be a lot better. Michigan built a very good resume in the non-conference season as it defeated UCLA and Duke. A 3-1 start in the Big Ten turned some heads but a 2-7 run ensued and it looked as though the 11-year NCAA Tournament drought would continue. The Wolverines finished strong however as they went 4-2 in their final six regular season games before splitting in the Big Ten Tournament. Michigans success or lack thereof comes down to making shots. If the shots are falling, the Wolverines can beat anyone but if they are not going down, victorious becomes more difficult. As with any John Beilein coached team, Michigan takes care of the ball as it has a 1.38 assist/turnover ratio which is ninth best in the nation. It is also shooting 75.5 percent from the charity stripe which is 14th in the country. Those are two of the bigger statistical categories to look at come tournament time and the Wolverines have advantages in both in this matchup. They also have an edge in overall efficiency and that is pretty big considering they are the underdog. Back to the coaching, Beilein is spectacular. He is the 7th head coach all-time to bring four different teams into the NCAA Tournament. I will take him over Purnell with four days to prepare any day of the week. If the perimeter shots are falling at just an average clip, the Wolverines have a great shot at the upset. 3* Michigan Wolverines

[Mr. IWS]

helmut

3/19/09 CBB Oklahoma Over 134.5 -110 (728)

ANALYSIS: The Sooner’s were a great offensive team in their non-conference portion of the schedule scoring at least 70 points in every game. It’s not like they played all cupcakes either in games against the weaker competition they put up an average offensive efficiency of 1.22 averaging 88 ppg. The Bears have shown a willingness to play up-tempo, as their bracket buster game against Towson was fast pace as well as several non-conference games against up-tempo teams. The Bears did play some tough teams (Mississippi, Washington and Maryland) earlier in the season and they did manage to put up at least 65 points in each of these games. I think this game is going to be played to a pretty good pace and the Sooner’s should have no issues scoring here and Morgan State looks to have enough offense to get this one up and over the total.


3/19/09 CBB Notre Dame Over 146.5 -110 (740)

ANALYSIS: I realize that the Irish have now played 9 out of the last 10 under the total but this one looks much too low. The first thing that stands out to me is that I think we will get a really fast pace to this game. The Lobo’s are just coming off a game against Nebraska that played to 152 total possessions. Most of the Lobo games in the non-conference schedule against up-tempo opponents were really fast paced games and no reason to think this game against the Irish will not be as well considering the teams have very little time to prepare a defensive game plan and are both really solid offensive teams. With a 150+ possession game one of these teams is really going to have an off shooting night for this to stay under the total.


gl

[Mr. IWS]

Fairway Jay
American +16.5
California -1
Big Drive-- Washington -5.5

[Mr. IWS]

DOC

3 Unit Play. Take Edmonton -105 over Colorado

The Oilers come into Colorado off a 2-1 shootout win over the Blues Tuesday to put them in eight place in a tight race for the last spot in the western conference. They now face a Colorado team who leads the season series with a 3-2 edge, the Aves are dealing with some injuries with Paul Stastny being questionable and that with Salei, Foote, Tjarnqvist and Sakic out (Been out most of the year). Edmonton has a huge edge in goal with Roloson who has been solid, in betting I don't believe in the term "must win" but this is the type of game the Oilers have to take advantage of and I can't see how Colorado opened a favorite I made the Oilers a thirty cent favorite and I think we have some tremendous value here.

[Mr. IWS]

Stu Feiner

2500 Dime High Roller Double Digit Cover

Mississippi State (149) vs Washington (-6) @ Portland

Mississippi State seems to be a public play, but I love the Pac-10 champion Huskies to cover this number later today in Portland. Washington had won six straight and nine of 10 before being knocked off by a quality Arizona State team last Friday in the conference tournament. That early exit allowed UW to rest up and re-focus for the Big Dance. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs experienced an emotional ride in having to win four games in four days culminating with last Sunday’s SEC Tournament title win over Tennessee in Tampa. Then it was back to Starkville and now all the way out to Portland, where a pro Washington crowd will be on-hand at the Rose Garden. The Dogs went 4-5 ATS in non-conference games and they’ll come crashing down against a balanced Washington club. Look for the Huskies to attack MSU big man Jarvis Varnado inside. If Jon Brockman, Isaiah Thomas, Justin Dentmon and Venoy Overton can keep coming at the MSU big fella and get him in foul trouble,then the Dogs’ chances are toast. Remember, this is a 25-win Washington team that has won and covered six straight as a neutral court favorite of 3 ½ to 6 points. Mississippi State had a magical run last weekend, but this is just too difficult a turnaround spot for MSU as a better rested and more balanced Washington team pulls away and wins this by at least a dozen points.

WASHINGTON (-6) 2500 Dime High Roller


2500 Dime High Roller Double Digit Cover

Minnesota (+4) vs Texas (127') @ Greensboro, NC

Minnesota is the better defensive club in this match-up and I love the Golden Gophers to use their defensive prowess to upend this Texas team that has really never pulled it altogether in a season after the club lost point guard D.J. Augustin early to the NBA draft. The Longhorns went just 7-7 SU in its final 14 games and went 7-8 SU and 5-9 ATS down the stretch versus teams with winning records. Texas, 1-5-1 ATS last seven games, also failed to win or cover in both games this year when installed as a neutral court chalk of 3 ½ to 6 points. Furthermore, this team has failed to cover in seven of its last eight outside of Austin and has negative spread marks both overall and when laying points. Minnesota went 12-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in non-conference games and this Minnesota team is glad to be in this spot. They believe in Tubby Smith, a championship winning coach who knows what to do this time of year. Look for the Gophers with Jamal Abu-Shamala and Klawrence Westbrook leading the defensive charge to frustrate the Horns and steal this outright win tonight.

MINNESOTA (+4) 2500 Dime High Roller


2500 Dime High Roller Double Digit Cover

Michigan (+5') vs Clemson (137') @ Kansas City

Clemson’s press is not working and the slumping Tigers will give up loads of dunks and layups tonight as Michigan wins this one outright. The Wolverines have committed fewer than 10 turnovers in four of their last five games as Jim Beilein’s club had been on runs of 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS before falling to Illinois in the Big Ten tournament. This team believes in its second-year coach with his quirky offense and unorthodox 1-3-1 zone defense. Clemson finished the year on a 1-4 SU/ATS slide with the lone victory coming over lowly Virginia at home. They have negative spread marks overall, as a chalk, in non-conference games as well as being 1-3 ATS this year in neutral court affairs. Meanwhile, Michigan has beaten both Duke and UCLA this season and this solid outside shooting team should be able drain treys against a Tiger team that finished last in three-point shooting defense.. The Wolverines went 10-3 SU and 6-1 ATS in non-conference games and 4-0 SU and 2-0 ATS playing on five or six days rest. Clemson is struggling while DeShawn Sims, Manny Harris and the Wolverines are not as Michigan wins outright..

MICHIGAN (+5') 2500 Dime High Roller


2500 Dime High Roller Double Digit Cover

#4American (+17) vs Villanova (130) @ Philadelphia

This is a confident American team that will easily stay inside this bloated price tonight in Philly. The Patriot League champs easily stayed inside the number in last year’s respectable first round loss to Tennessee in a game the Eagles felt they should’ve won. Now with essentially the same returning cast back and riding a 13-game win streak (19-1 SU last 20), American will give the Wildcats all they can handle. Villanova has failed to cover in six of its last nine overall and is on further negative spread skids of 1-4 in neutral court games and 1-3 when laying more than 12 ½ points in neutral court contests. American starts five seniors and has an effective inside-outside combo of guard Garrison Carr and forward Brian Gilmore. They’ve already faced the likes of Oklahoma, Maryland and Georgetown this year and have covered five of their last eight neutral court games. Yes this game is in Philly, but look for the crowd to be rooting for the underdog as Scottie Reynolds and Villanova will be in for a fight and American easily scores this ATS win.

AMERICAN (+17) 2500 Dime High Roller


2500 Dime High Roller Double Digit Cover

Morgan State (+16) vs Oklahoma (136) @ Kansas City

Morgan State, the MEAC champs coached by former Cal coach Todd Bozeman, will no doubt stay inside this large spread tonight in Kansas City. The Bears won at Maryland this season as well as DePaul and Marshall and were competitive in losses at Ole Miss, Washington, Saint Mary’s and La Salle. Meanwhile, the Sooners finished on a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS swoon as the Sooners don’t have a deep bench and appear to be wearing down. They’ve also failed to cover in all three games this year playing on five or six days rest. Yes Blake Griffin will have a big game, but the Bears have a big man in Kevin Thompson who can take up room in the paint. The three-guard lineup that Bozeman relies on can make plays from the outside and it must be noted that MEAC teams have covered nine straight first-round Big Dance games (not including play-in games). The Bears are a solid defensive club (62 ppg, 40% shooting) and they’ll sag back on Griffin and force the cold-shooting Sooner guards to make shots from the outside. Morgan State point guard Jermaine Bolden is quick enough to handle the OU press and the Bears will stay inside the number tonight.

MORGAN STATE (+16) 2500 Dime High Roller

[Mr. IWS]

Tom Stryker
4 Wash-
3 BYU- Lost
3 UCLA-
3 IL-

[Mr. IWS]

Maddux Sports

Hockey
#13 - NHL - 3 units on St. Louis +165

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso 3/19
25 unit Gonzaga
10 unit ND
10 unit Vill
4 unit Morgan St
3 unit Illinois

[Mr. IWS]

ATS

5 Cal
5 Morgan St
4 VCU
4 Texas
4 Miss St

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner: FADE AWAY

500* CBB Gonzaga -13

50* NBA Over 196.5 Atl/Dal

50* CBB Texas -4

50* CBB Western Kentucky +5

50* CBB Over 127 Butler/LSU

25* CBB Memphis -20

[Mr. IWS]

Billy Coleman

Postseason GOY

Notre Dame

[Mr. IWS]

purelock

penn st

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | CBB Sides Double-Dime Bet

750 Old Dominion -10.0 (-110) BetUS vs 749 The Citadel
Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* LATE STEAM **

[Mr. IWS]

SMTM Sports Picks
3* Gonzaga/Akron Under 134
2* Clemson -4
2* UCLA -8
1* Minnesota +5

[Mr. IWS]

Steve Zukiel Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, March 19, 2009
$50.00 Guaranteed: My Biggest NCAA Tourney Selection Of My Career Goes Thur! Guaranteed 50 Unit NCAA Tourney GOY! Win Or You Pay Nothing! 80% In Conference Tourney Play! 71+% Lifetime During March Madness! Tip Off Is After 7:00 PM EST! 3/18/2009

NCAA Basketball
(709)Minnesota vs(710)Texas
Thursday, March 19th, 2009
7:10 pm est 4:10 pm pacific
Line: Texas(-4 )
Rating: Guaranteed 60 Unit NCAA Tourney Game Of The Year
In this contest, my money is on the Texas Longhorns.

Minnesota has been god awful away from home for much of the season. They actually enter first round play on a 1-7 ATS run in their last eight away from home, failing to cover all seven when made the underdog. Texas struggled somewhat heading down the stretch, but they are a much better basketball team than people think. I love coach Rick Barnes and you can be rest assured he is going to light a fire under his players asses. Texas played one road game against a Big 10 opponent(Wisconsin) this season and they won and covered. Expect the same on Thursday evening. Take the Longhorns.

[Mr. IWS]

EZ Winners

3* Butler +2
3* California -1.5
3* Mississippi State +6
3* W. Kentucky +5

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass night action
20*UCLA
30*W.Kentucky
50*Michigan
100*Oklahoma,
100*NBA Over Golden State

[Mr. IWS]

teddy june

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
byu Lost
cal
wash

[Mr. IWS]

SCORE
400 UCLA
300 oklahoma
300 new mexico