3-20-09

Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection
***Wake Forest (-7 ½) over Cleveland State
Rotation 826
I lost my Best Bet on Butler -6 over Cleveland State in the Horizon League Tournament Final, but that win by the Vikings gives me no hesitation in going against them again here. Cleveland State is still not as good in games without injured guard D’Aundray Brown (51% FG, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.7 steals per game) and the only reason they were even close against Butler was due to a huge variance from the expected 3-point shooting of each team. Cleveland State has only made 31.7% of their 3-point shots this season, but the Vikings were 10 of 19 in that game against a good Butler defense (I expected 28.3% 3-point shooting) and a good shooting Butler team (35.2%) made just 4 of 19 3-point shots when they were expected to make 34.8% at home against a slightly better than average Cleveland State 3-point defense. Cleveland State managed to make 6 more 3-pointers on the same number of attempts as Butler in that game, rather than making less as expected, and the Vikings would have lost by about 15 points had the 3-point shooting not been so randomly variant. Beating Butler has made the Vikings a bit overrated while Wake’s loss to Maryland in the ACC tournament has resulted in less respect. Wake Forest may have lost to Maryland, but they are good enough to be 6-1 straight up against the best teams that they faced this season – winning at BYU, beating North Carolina in their only meeting, sweeping Clemson, beating Florida State by 23 points and splitting two games with Duke. My ratings favor Wake Forest by 8 ½ points with Brown out for Cleveland State and the Demon Deacons’ strong defense (I rate them 15th in the nation in adjusted points per possession allowed) should overwhelm a normally poor shooting Vikings squad (43% FG, 32% 3-pointers). Cleveland State does play good defense, but Wake Forest performed relatively better offensively against better defensive teams, as wins over Duke, Florida State, and North Carolina would attest. The reason for this play is a number of strong situations that favor Wake Forest, including a 15-0 ATS subset of an 82-29-3 ATS first round angle. Cleveland State, meanwhile, applies to a negative 9-33-1 ATS letdown situation. I’ll take Wake Forest in a 3-Star Best Bet at -8 or less and for 2-Stars at -8 ½ or -9 points. My math model predicts 140 total points.

3 Star Selection
***Arizona State (-4 1/2) over Temple
Rotation 830
Temple played great in winning the Atlantic 10 tournament, but the Owls are not good enough to beat Arizona State if both teams play their normal game. Temple and Arizona State both shoot a lot of 3-pointer (21 per game at 36.7% for Temple and 22 per game at 36.6% for ASU), but the Sun Devils have an advantage in this match-up because they defend the 3-point arc so much better. ASU allowed just 31.4% long range shooting to a schedule of teams that combine to average 35.5% from deep while Temple was just average defending the arc, giving up 34.3% 3-point shooting to teams that combine for 34.5%. Temple’s Dionte Christmas is getting a lot of pub for his good performance in the A 10 tournament, but Christmas is an inconsistent shooter that made just 41% of his shots while ASU star James Hardin in a top 5 NBA draft pick that made 50% of his shots while adding 4.2 assists and 1.7 steals per game. My ratings favor Arizona State by 6 ½ points and the Sun Devils are due to bounce-back from their loss to USC in the Pac-10 finals. Coach Herb Sendek’s team is 20-11 ATS after a point spread loss in his 3 seasons, including 12-2 ATS recently, so it’s not often the Sun Devils play poorly in consecutive games. Temple has accumulated a very good spread record the last two seasons (41-22-3 ATS), but the Owls don’t perform as well against motivated teams and they are just 3-10-1 ATS against a .500 or better team that is coming off a loss (1-6 ATS this season and 1-4 ATS as a dog). Temple also applies to a negative 2-17 ATS subset of a 42-70-1 ATS letdown situation while the Sun Devils apply to a 99-36-3 ATS round 1 angle. I’ll take Arizona State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 or less, for 4-Stars at -4 or less, and for 2-Stars at -6 ½ or -7 points. My predicted total is 121 ½ points.

[Mr. IWS]

wayne root

Chairman- Arizona State -
Millionaire- Wisconsin + NCAA Opening Round Underdog of the Year
MoneyMaker-Boston College +
No Limit- Utah State +
Insiders- Cornell +
Billionaire- Cleveland State +
Perfect Play- Utah -

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

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40-Dime Florida State

5-Dime Siena

5-Dime Cleveland State

5-Dime Utah State

5-Dime N Dakota State



FREE - Portland State

[Mr. IWS]

Al

At 3 pm, our 1st Round Shocker of the Year is on the Cornell Big Red plus the points over Missouri, as Cornell falls into 29-1, 33-13, 35-7, and 59-22 ATS systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 33-13 ATS angle. Since the tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1985 (now, currently 65 teams) the worst-seeded teams' performances have correlated with whether their foe was off a win or loss to end the regular season. For purposes of our study, we'll discard the #1 vs. #16 games, as a #1 team has never lost SU to a #16 seed (and probably never will), since those games aren't very competitive. So, we'll just look at the teams seeded #13, #14, and #15. If the higher ranked team checked in off a win (as Missouri does today), then our lesser teams have excelled against the spread, but if our higher-ranked teams happened to lose their final regular season game, they've tended to snap back with a decent performance in Round 1. Indeed, if we look at the data going back to 1991, we find that teams seeded #13, #14 and #15 are a solid 33-13 ATS vs. a foe off a win, provided our 13-15 seeded team is also off a win. This is a great letdown spot for Missouri after it won the Big 12 Conference championship. That was the first time the Tigers won a post-season tournament since Norm Stewart's men won the Big Eight Tourney in 1993. So, even though today's game means a lot, we've seen throughout the years that teams -- especially those that were not favored to win their conference tourney from the outset (Missouri finished 3rd in the Big 12 Conference's regular season) -- do have letdowns in the opening round of the Tournament. I expect big things from Missouri later on (and wouldn't be surprised if it makes the Final Four), but just not today. NCAA 1st Round Shocker of the Year on Cornell. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's COLLEGE HOOPS HIGH ROLLER B-L-O-W-O-U-T
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over Cleveland State

[Mr. IWS]

PPP
4 michigan state
4 pittsburgh
4 arizona state
4 missouri
3 utah state

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer

Game: Arizona at Utah Mar 20 2009 7:10PM
Prediction: Arizona
Reason: I'm playing the Arizona Wildcats on Friday. Many argued this week that Arizona's resume does not deserve a Big Dance Invite. That may be true. But now that they're here, the only thing that matters is the task at hand. Arizona is a bad matchup for the Utah Utes. First of all, for Utah to win against decent competition, they have to hit from the perimeter. While they ranked 45th in the nation from behind the arc, overall, the Utes were nothing special in this category in games played away from home, hitting 33.8%, which would have them ranked 176th. This is troublesome for Utah because I do believe 7'2 senior center Luke Nevill is in for a battle tonight. Nevill takes up a lot of space and he is a decent talent, but he is not the quickest or most athletic big man. The problem is, he'll have to matchup with Arizona forward Jordan Hill. At 6'10, Hill is at least in Nevill's neighborhood. But Hill is much quicker and can harrass Nevill on both ends of the court with his quickness advantage. Hill and fellow forward Chase Budinger will both be playing for pay next season. But that's not the whole story. The Wildcats are led by a highly underrated PG in junior Nic Wise. He's outstanding on the perimeter and he's a tenacious defender who can give the Utah ball-handlers fits. And instead of saying the U of A doesn't belong, let's take a look at some of the teams they have BEATEN this season. The list includes: UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State, Houston, Kansas, and Gonzaga, all of which are playing in the postseason. The 'Cats will not be intimidated one bit in this one and I believe they're set to deliver a public shocker. The Wildcats are my opening round SHOCKER GOM.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 20* 1st Round Total GOY (12-5 or 70.6% run s/Mar 3)
My 20* 1st Round NCAA Total of the Year is on USC/BC Over at 7:20 ET. USC went into a "free-fall" this past February, losing SIX of seven games. That left Tim Floyd's team with just ONE path to the "Big Dance" and that was to win the Pac 10 tourney. That's EXACTLY what the Trojans did this past weekend in LA. The Trojans easily dispatched of Cal 79-65 on Thursday, upset UCLA 65-55 on Friday (had lost both regular season meetings to the Bruins) and then overcame a 15-point halftime deficit by outscoring ASU 42-24 in the second half of Saturday's championship game, for a 66-63 win. The 10th-seed Trojans (21-12) get a first round matchup with No. 7 seed Boston College, which went 22-11 this year, highlighted by notable upsets of then-No.1 North Carolina at Chapel Hill on Jan 4 (Eagles won 85-78 as three-TD underdogs!) and 80-74 at home over Duke on Feb 15. BC almost upset Duke a for a second time this year but fell 66-65 last Friday night in the ACC quarterfinals, after leading 29-22 at the half. Who knows how good USC may have been this year if OJ Mayo (20.7-4.5-3.3) had stayed and if fellow freshman Jefferson (12.1-6.3), who wasn't drafted, hadn't hired an agent which prevented his return? As is, the Trojans are not a deep team but their seven-man rotation is quite impressive. Lewis (14.1-3.2) and Hackett (12.5-5-4.2-4.7) are both 6-5 and form an outstanding guard duo. The 6-9 Gibson (14.3-9.4) has had his best season as a Trojan, while a pair of 6-7 freshman, DeRozan (13.6-5.7) and Washington (6.1-4.1) have had their moments. DeRozan 'EXPLODED' during the Pac 10 tourney, averaging 21.0 PPG and 9.0 RPG. Johnson (3.6) was playing regularly in the backcourt in the early going but Floyd's insertion of Simmons (2.0) into the staring lineup towards the end of the year, was credited with stabilizing the team, as Simmons' perimeter 'D' is outstanding. BC is generally a young team, although guard Rice (17.1-3.9-5.4) leads the way and has had a superb senior year. The rest of the starting lineup has great size, as 6-5 swingman Sanders (12.8-4.8) is joined by the 6-8 Trapani (13.5-6.6), the 6-6 Raji (9.8-6.1) and the 6-10 Southern (6.1-5.1). Joining the mix are freshman guard Jackson (7.1-3.2), the 6-7 Roche (3.6) and guard Paris (3.5), who came out of nowhere to score 15 points in last Friday's one-point loss to Duke. Both teams defend the perimeter pretty well, as BC allows opponents to make just 32.7 percent of its threes, with USC is allowing 33.7 percent. I was all set to make a big play on BC is this game (catching USC off its upset win of the Pac 10 tourney) but I believe the better play is to take the 'over.' Matchups often dictate how teams will play and while USC is said to have a tough 'D,' I see plenty of flaws, as this team is often caught "out of position." As for BC, I believe the Eagles will have more than a little trouble handling Gibson and DeRozan inside plus Lewis and Hackett's size could also be an issue on the perimeter. Note that in BC's two biggest wins this year, at North Carolina and home to Duke, the point totals in those games finished at 163 and 154 respectively. That's an average of 158.5 PPG, which is more than three TDs higher than the opening total on this game. 1st Round Total of the Year 20* USC/Bos Coll Over.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-CBB (38-25 or 60.3% CBB run s/Mar 3)-Night
My Las Vegas Insider is on Arizona at 7:10 ET. This is the 49th meeting between Arizona and Utah but the first since 2005. Arizona HAD to be one of the last teams into the tournament, as the Wildcats somehow are 'dancing' for the 25th consecutive year. However, the team's at-large bid left a handful of other schools claiming they were more deserving. It's an easy argument to make. The Wildcats were just 9-9 in the Pac 10's regular season and the school's 68-56 loss to ASU in the Pac 10 tourney (Wildcats lost all three games with the Sun Devils TY) dropped Arizona to 19-13 overall, with FIVE losses in its last six games. However, the committee will point to non-conference wins over Gonzaga and Kansas plus Pac 10 wins over UCLA, USC and Washington to make its case. In the end, the Wildcats are 'in,' so where do we go from here? Utah was part of a three-way first-place tie in the MWC (with BYU and New Mexico) but it was the Utes who won the postseason tourney, edging SDSU 52-50 in the title game. The 7-2 Nevill (16.9-9.1) starts with the 6-10 Tiillie (3.1-4.5) up front but Tillie gives way early to the 6-8 Green (10.4.9). The backcourt is deep, with starters Borha (11.7-3.3), Brown (9.4-5.2-3.2) and Drca (7.8-3.5 APG). Kepkay (10.1) gets plenty of minutes off the bench. Utah is a solid club but the Wildcats own the three best players in this game. The 6-10 Hill (18.5-11.0) is an NBA-talent (Nevill really isn't), the 6-7 Budinger (17.9-6.3-3.4) is capping a terrific four-year career, plus junior PG Wise (15.1-2.4-4.6) is BY FAR, the best backcourt performer in this game! The 6-6 Horne (6.8-5.2) and freshman guard Fogg (6.2) round out the starting-five, while Johnson (6.2) is the only reserve of much note. I don't foresee the Wildcats going too far in this tourney but I do see them winning here and justifying their selection. Las Vegas Insider on Arizona.

Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns' Friday MAIN EVENT - TOP 1st Rd Dog (50-33 CBB RUN)
I'm taking the points with SIENA. As you know, the Buckeyes come from the much bigger conference. In fact, many casual fans would assume this to be a real David vs. Goliath type of matchup. However, Siena is no ordinary MAAC school and there was nothing ordinary about the Saints' non-conference schedule. In addition to dominating the MAAC, the Saints faced the likes of Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, St. Joseph's, Northern Iowa, Wichita State and Kansas. In other words, they've seen plenty of this level of competition and will NOT be intimidated by what the Buckeyes bring to the table. You may recall that the Saints upset Vanderbilt in the first round of last year's tournament. This is essentially the same team, only now they've got another year's worth of growing up and experience under their belts. The Buckeyes do have a couple of advantages. They're bigger and they're also playing this game fairly close (at Dayton, Ohio) to home. However, unlike the Saints, they're also still relatively inexperienced. Their most experienced player, David Lighty, went down with an injury earlier in the year. Evan Turner has proven to be a bigtime player for the Buckeyes. However, Siena's senior guard Kenny Hasbrouck, the MAAC player of the year, is no slouch either. In addition to having the more experienced team, with four players averaging double figures (the Buckeyes have 3) the Saints have more scoring weapons in their starting lineup. The Saints averaged 77.7 points on the season, including 79.4 in their final five games. While the Buckeyes were admittedly facing much tougher defenses, they averaged just 66.7 points, including only 63.4 in their final five. The Saints are 13-7 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs. That includes a 3-1 ATS mark since December. I expect their experience to prove to be a big advantage and believe that they've got what it takes to score another upset. *Main Event