3-24-09 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

03-24-2009, 05:58 PM

Larry Ness' 15* 'Garden Party' Showdown-NIT
My 15* play is on Auburn at 7:00 ET. Scott Drew took over a Baylor program decimated by the abuses of former head coach Dave Bliss. However, in his fifth season at Waco (last year), he led the Bears to 21-wins, as the Bears qualified for the "Big Dance" for the first time since 1988. Much was expected from Baylor this year and the Bears were 12-1 through the end of December, with their only loss coming to Wake Forest (Demon Deacons would open 16-0). However, things fell apart quickly, as the team would go just 5-11 in the Big 12, losing 10 of its final 12 regular season games. The Bears then surprised everyone with a great run in the Big 12 tourney. Beating Nebraska came as no surprise but the Bears then knocked of Kansas and Texas (ending a 24-game losing streak to the Longhorns), before falling to Missouri in the title game. The Bears have FIVE double-digit scorers, guards Jerrells (16.11-4.7-4.8), Dunn (15.4-4.7), Carter (10.6-2.5-3.2) and Dugat (10.0-3.3-2.3) plus the 6-9 Rogers (12.5-7.5). Acy (5.6-3.8) is a 6-7 freshman who has helped some inside but neither big man, the 7-0 Lomers (3.3-1.7) nor the 7-1 Diene (1.7-1.6), is capable of much. Baylor escaped in the NIT's first round with a two-point win over Georgetown but then won impressively 84-66 at Va Tech on Saturday. Six players scored double digits in that game, as the Bears shot 61.7 percent from the floor, including 10-of-21 on threes. Points will not come as easily tonight at Auburn. Jeff Lebo struggled in his first four years with the Tigers, as Auburn was able to go just 57-64. However, things came together this year, although as everyone knows, the SEC did not have a "banner year" in the 2008-09 season. That being said, after going 14-16 (4-12 in the SEC) last year, the Tigers went 10-6 in league play and after a win over Florida and then a loss to Tennessee in the SEC tourney, were 22-11 with an RPI of 63. It wasn't good enough for an at-large bid and the Tigers find themselves in the NIT. However, Lebo's team cannot be too disappointed. The Tigers, like the Bears, are a perimeter-based team, as FOUR of the team's six players who get 24 minutes or more of playing time are guards. Reed (13.2-2.6-3.8) and Waller (12.2) are the top scorers on the perimeter, joined by Barrett (9.7-3.4) and Robertson (6.0-3.9-3.1). Sullivan (7.5) is also a backcourt contributor, logging almost 20 minutes per game (19.2). The frontcourt features the 6-7 Barber (12.9-9.5) and the 6-6 Hargrove (8.1-5.0). While Baylor's Big 12 tourney run and easy win at Va Tech give one pause, the fact is the Bears were just 3-8 SU on the road this year and even with the team's recent splurge, are a sad 11-17 ATS. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 21-7 ATS, which is the best pointspread mark in the nation. Auburn went 18-3 SU at home, going 11-3 ATS and winning all seven non-lined home games. Auburn's a solid defensive club (65.1 PPG / 40.5 percent on opponents' FGs) and has the perimeter depth to match up with the Bears. Let's note that the Tigers enter this game on an 11-2 SU and ATS run. Auburn routed Tulsa 74-55, despite the team's best player (Barber) being limited to just 13 minutes due to foul trouble (that doesn't figure to happen again). Expect the Tigers to win here and head off to a "Garden Party" in New York next Tuesday. 15* Auburn.

Good Luck...Larry