3-26-09

[Mr. IWS]

Fairway Jay

3/26/09

CBB

Big Drive: Duke -2 (808)
3/26/09

CBB

20* Big Drive: Missouri +4.5 (811)
3/26/09

CBB

Purdue +6.5 (813)

[Mr. IWS]

Special K

College Basketball 20*

Villanova

[Mr. IWS]

North Carolina Tar Heels -8½ to outlast Gonzaga Bulldogs
Game Time: 03/27/2009 10:07 PM ET Matchup Moves
By: LT Profits Sports Group

Ty Lawson provided a big boost as North Carolina beat LSU by 14 points last Saturday, and his presence makes the Heels almost unbeatable against another running team.

We have a lot of respect for the Gonzaga Bulldogs, but their style of play is very similar to their opponents in the Sweet 16, the North Carolina Tar Heels, and frankly, we do not feel there is any team in the country that can out-North Carolina North Carolina.

Besides, Gonzaga has yet to cover a spread in this tournament, finally shaking off Akron in the first round and then barely nipping Western Kentucky on Saturday. They are now stepping way up in class here, and the last time that the Zags played a team even remotely close to the Tar Heels talent wise, they got blown out at home by 18 points by Memphis. Sure, they have won 11 straight games since then, but none of those wins were vs. upper echelon teams.

The Heels were upset in the ACC Tournament, but that has not affected their play in the Big Dance, as they followed up their 43-point destruction of Radford with what many observers considered to be a surprisingly easy 14-point win over LSU, as the injured Ty Lawson provided the spark they needed. One has to assume that Lawson will only get better here with almost a full week off, and we feel that would make UNC just about unbeatable vs. a team that tries to run with them.

Well, Gonzaga loves playing at a fast pace, and unfortunately, we think that any team that tries to run the floor with the Heels is doomed to fail. As much as we love the Zags as a whole, we foresee a double-digit North Carolina win Friday.

Free Pick: North Carolina -8½ (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons | CBB Sides
dime bet810 Pittsburgh -7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 809 Xavier, Ohio
Analysis: The Panthers had to battle all the way to avoid making NCAA history as the first top-seeded team to fall to a No. 16, finally subduing East Tennessee State. The second round was no easier, as it battled until the final minute to eke past Oklahoma State. Well some may feel that Pittsburgh will falter, I believe that what doesn't end their run, makes them stronger! In fact it's interesting to note that Pittsburgh has excelled in this spot all year going a fantastic 14-10 ATS when playing the roll of favorite, 15-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record and 7-4 ATS after scoring 80 points or more! Xavier has played well, using its size to advance this far, however I believe it will stumble badly against Pitt; it's interesting to note that Xavier is a horrible 2-3 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77 plus points per contest and 1-2 ATS its last 3 as an underdog! Look for all of these strong ATS trends to play significant roll in this contest as I highly recommend a play on PITTSBURGH!

[Mr. IWS]

Matty O'Shea | CBB Sides
triple-dime bet810 Pittsburgh -6.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 809 Xavier, Ohio
Analysis: This is quite simply the biggest mismatch in the Sweet 16 in my opinion, and I just can't see the Xavier Musketeers finishing within double digits of the Pittsburgh Panthers when the final buzzer sounds. Pitt has never advanced past the Sweet 16 as a member of the Big East and supposedly will be giving up a size advantage to Xavier. Don't believe that for one second. Just because the Musketeers have some tall players doesn't mean anything. Xavier's top rebounder Derrick Brown averages six per game while DeJuan Blair averages more than twice as many for the Panthers. Let's also not forget that the Musketeers split their last 10 games before the Big Dance started, and they were crushed 82-64 by Duke on a neutral court back in late December. They have enjoyed one of the easiest roads to the Sweet 16 with easy wins over Portland State and Wisconsin. I honestly believe Pitt is a far superior opponent who will finally break through and cover after failing to impress in the first two rounds. Bet the Panthers to win big as my Triple Dime NCAA East Region Game O' the Year.

[Mr. IWS]

Karl Garrett

40 DIMER - VILLANOVA WILDCATS....20 DIMER - MEMPHIS TIGERS
40 DIMER - VILLANOVA WILDCATS



I believe the wrong team is favored in this game, plain-and-simple!



Villanova is totally hitting their stride, and that crush-job over UCLA this past weekend was all I needed to see to make me a believer in Jay Wright's team advancing past the Blue Devils.



Duke has not fared well when taking on schools from the Big East, going 2-8-1 against the spread their last 11.



The Blue Devils had some issues taking care of a Texas team that I didn't think very highly of in the last round, and taking on the Wildcats is a whole different animal, as Villanova is more than capable of rattling off 12-points in 40 seconds.



G-Man fully expects the Wildcats to get the straight up win, but getting a little more than a basket makes the play that much stronger.



Take 'Nova plus the points.



20 DIMER - MEMPHIS TIGERS



No doubt Mike Anderson has the Mizzou program back full force, but the way they ended their game against Marquette is a red-flag as far as I am concerned. Missouri looked shaky as all get out at the end of that game, and tonight they are coming in against a Memphis team that I believe has found their tourney legs.



After a shaky first round game against Cal State Northridge, Coach Cal's team shredded Maryland 89-70 in the second round, and I think they are only to get stronger in this game.



Memphis is not usually a single-digit favorite, but they have covered their last pair in that role, and they will cover here.



Nice run by the Tigers of Columbia, but the Tigers of Memphis went all the way to the final last year, and will not blink in this round.



Take Memphis.
Today's Complimentary Selection

G-Man gave you a NBA winner on the Timberwolves last night to make it 2 in a row for free.


Let's go to the Big Dance tonight, and play the Xavier Musketeers plus the points as they take on Pittsburgh in Boston.

The "X"-Men are quite familiar playing at this stage, as 2 of their last 3 Big Dance trips have been to the Sweet 16 or deeper, and I don't think they are going to be outclassed by a Pitt team that did a tightrope dance in each of their first 2 tourney games, surviving against East Tennessee State, and Oklahoma State to get to this matchup.

Pittsburgh has looked the shakiest of the number one seeds, and perhaps it is because they have not been past the Sweet 16 in years. The collar on their jerseys seems very tight to the G-Man, and this impost looks particularly tall to clear.

Xavier is a deep, and experienced team, and if they are able to limit their turnovers, I see them giving the Panthers a major scare this Thursday night.

G-Man playing the underdog Musketeers in this one!


2? XAVIER
(on a 1? to 5? basis)

[Mr. IWS]

The Prezz NA
Connecticut r814
-6.5 (-110) / 5 units

The Prezz NA
Memphis r812
-4.0 (-110) / 5 units

The Prezz NA
Missouri r811
Memphis r812
o141.0 (-110) / 5 units

[Mr. IWS]

Maddux Sports

Basketball
#808 - NCAA - 5 units on Duke -2 (Sweet 16 Game of the Year)
#810 - NCAA - 3 units on Pittsburgh -6.5
#813 - NCAA - 3 units on Purdue +6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Budin 25*

PITT

[Mr. IWS]

Docs NCAAB
Memphis -4.5 (6)
Vill +2 (3)

[Mr. IWS]

Las Vegas Sport Picks

NBA:

2* Bulls -5.5

NCAA:

2* Villanova +2.5
3* Purdue/UCONN over 133
5* Missouri/Memphis over 141
6* UCONN -7

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Canada

Game 1 - Flames/Jackets over 5.5

Game 2 - Lightning/Canadiens over 6

Game 3 - Canucks -130

[Mr. IWS]

Fairway Jay

3/26/09

NBA

20* Big Drive: Chicago -5 (804)

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Franco

Uconn-7 over Purdue

***GAME OF THE YEAR***


The Betting Number opened at -6.5 and has moved to -7 in most places here in Las Vegas.


Connecticut had two dominant performances to open the NCAA Tournament as the Huskies steamrolled UT-Chattanooga in the first round and followed that up with another blowout against Texas A&M in the second round.


The offense has been unstoppable, scoring 103 and 92 points while the defense allowed the two opponents to shoot a combined 33.3 percent from the floor (43-129). Connecticut is now 15-2 away from home on the season and of those 15 wins, seven victories came against teams that are in the 64-team field.


Purdue has gotten here in much less spectacular form, as they beat Northern Iowa by 5 and Washington by just 2. Purdue plays tough defense, but they haven't had to defend a team like the Huskies all season.


Purdue doesn't have the answers UConn has offensively, or off the glass, which is where the difference lies in this game. The Boilermakers reached 80 points just once in their last 27 games, and that was against a very bad Indiana team.

The Huskies look like a team that is serious about cutting down the nets for the 3rd time in 10 years, and have too many answers for Purdue in this one. I like UConn to win this one going away by at least 14 or more points.

[Mr. IWS]

BeatYourBookie.com

Daily Premium Hoops & Hockey Winners for Thursday


NCAA Basketball


100* Play Connecticut (-6.5) over Purdue (NCAA)

Connecticut is 17-1 SU coming off a win by 10 points or more this season
Connecticut is 7-0 SU after covering the spread in two of the last three
Connecticut is 21-3 SU when playing as a favorite this season



100* Play Memphis (-4.5) over Missouri (NCAA)

Memphis is 27-0 SU over the last 27 games
Memphis is 42-2 SU when the total posted is between 140 and 149.5 points
Memphis is 20-2 SU after covering the spread in the last game
Memphis is 7-1 SU in all tournament games this season



100* Play Villanova (+2) over Duke (NCAA)

Villanova is 9-1 SU when the total posted is between 140 and 149.5 points
Villanova is 13-1 SU coming off a win by 20 points or more
Villanova is 5-1 SU in all tournament games this season



---------------------------------------------------------------------

Other Hoops & Hockey Plays


30* Play LA Lakers (-7.5) over Detroit (NBA)

30* Play Philadelphia (-210) over Florida (NHL)

Paid & Confirmed.

[Mr. IWS]

Matt O'Shea
Sweet 16 GOY---PITT

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams
Trace Adams 1500* - Villanova Wildcats, 500* - Purdue Boilermakers Duke is the # 2 seed, and of course they are "Duke", and that is really the only reason they are the small favorite in this game, as I believe the Villanova Wildcats are peaking at the right time, and will be moving on to the Elite 8 after this 40-minute session.

UCLA is not a patsy, and 'Nova drilled that team in the second round. Sure the 'Cats got to play in Philadelphia, but the same can be said about Duke, as they played their first pair of games in nearby Greensboro, and did struggle with a rather pedestrian Texas team in the second round before putting them away late.

Villanova is shooting the ball quite well, and the fact this game is not being played in a dome should help the Wildcats keep their shooting eyes on tonight.

Duke is just 2-8-1 against the spread their last 11 games played against the Big East, and I don't see that mark improving.

Any points we are getting a plus, but don't be surprised when Villanova wins this one outright.

Take the Wildcats plus the points.

1500? - Villanova Wildcats

Nobody looked stronger in the first two rounds then UConn, as the Huskies dismantled Tennessee-Chattanooga, and Texas A&M to move to the Sweet 16. The problem is, Purdue presents a different challenge for the Huskie, as the Boilers do have some big bodies to contend with Thabeet and company, and the Boilers can also knock down the 3-point shot which should have the UConn big men having to come out from underneath the basket a little more than they would like.

If you have been with me this basketball season, you know I think this Purdue team is capable of making it all the way to Detroit, and with a pair of tough games against Northern Iowa, and Washington (at Portland where the Huskies had plenty of support), Purdue is not going to get rattled against the over-confident Huskies.

Also consider the untimely recruiting violations that have arisen against Jim Calhoun and his staff, and the Huskies could very well be a little distracted.

I believe Purdue has the makeup to win this game outright, but I am glad we are getting around 7-points or so.

500? - Purdue Boilermakers

[Mr. IWS]

Drew Gordan.....
300,000 unit play.....Duke

[Mr. IWS]

Donnie Black

20* Black Magic: Detroit +8.5

[Mr. IWS]

IC

Play: 4 Unit Play. Take James Madison +6.5 over Old Dominion. (POD)


Play: 4 Unit Play. Take Under 202.5 between Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls.(POD)

[Mr. IWS]

Oscarxena Sports

698 Old Dominion -6 1/2 -1.11 (3 Unit Play)-These two Colonial Athletic Association rivals meet for the third time this season tonight which is the rubber match in the series as both teams were able during the regular season to win on each other's home court. In my opinion, Old Dominion has taken on the tougher teams in this tourney as they beat both The Citadel and Belmont which aren't powerhouses but I think they are better teams than Liberty and Mount St. Mary's which were who James Madison defeated to get here. The line here appears to be a little short to me based on the lines for the regular season meetings as Old Dominion was favored by 10 at home in the first meeting and then James Madison was favored by 1 in the second meeting at JMU. I made this game 9 which in my opinion gives us some line value and I am going to go against the spread covering Dukes in this game. Old Dominion has went 15-3 SU at home so I have to believe they win the game and will come down to if they cover or not which I believe they will.

[Mr. IWS]

Charlies:

xavier vs pitt over 139 & purdue vs uconn over 134' (500* 2 team parlay )
ncaa. villanova+2 (30*)
ncaa. xavier+7 (20*)
ncaa. uconn-6' (20*)
ncaa. memphis-4' (10*)
nba. lakers+8 (10*) free pla

[Mr. IWS]

CHRIS JORDAN :

600* VILLANOVA

100* OVER Lakers/Pistons

100* UNDER Villanova/Duke

100* PHOENIX SUNS

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis Thursday's Lineup
50 Dime ---- VILLANOVA

10 Dime ---- MEMPHIS

5 Dime ---- LAKERS

VILLANOVA --- It’s amazing to think this is a near home game for ‘Nova and they are grabbing a few points from the Dukies tonight, but when I first saw this matchup last weekend and broke it down, I had Villanova winning by five or six. I was fully expecting the Wildcats to be favored by a few points, so obviously when I saw Duke (a Vegas darling) come out as 2-3 point chalk, I had to jump all over this.

Look, I’m not saying Duke is a bad team or that they don’t deserve to be here, I’m just saying I believe Villanova is a better team from top to bottom and they are playing a lot closer to home than the Blue Devils, giving them yet another advantage in this matchup.

Many Duke backers will tell you that Coach K is a master of taking away a team’s strengths and forcing them to use other options. I’m sure you all heard about how Texas’ Dex Pittman was going to be able to dominate inside last weekend vs. a “soft” Duke interior, but since Pittman wasn’t much of a post-scorer all season why did anyone think just because Duke wasn’t great defensively in the paint that Pittman was all-of-a-sudden going to become a scorer? Pittman was a rebounder, shot-blocker and space eater all season, he wasn’t consider a major scoring option in that offense, so why am I hearing what a great job Duke did in keeping him to just eight points?

The problem in that game was the simple fact Texas just didn’t hit enough free throws or mid-range jumpers when Pittman did get doubled inside. Texas hit just 3 of 12 three-pointers and 16 of 25 from the free throw line and they only lost by five? Texas committed a silly foul in the waning seconds that sealed the deal, so don’t tell me Duke’s interior defense was the difference because it clearly wasn’t. Duke didn’t win the game, Texas lost it.

Folks, ‘Nova won’t make that same mistake tonight. Dante Cunningham, much like Pittman, is a space eater inside. But the difference between the two is that Cunningham can score at will against teams like Duke. The Blue Devils don’t have a single big man that can keep him down for 40 minutes (unless he gets in foul trouble). If Cunningham plays smart, he’ll finish the game with yet another double-double. And if Duke thinks they’re going to double down on big Dante, he’s got enough court presence to find the open shooter… and Villanova has plenty of them.

In their last game vs. UCLA, the Wildcats connected on 8 of 25 three-point attempts (32%) and we know their season average is better than that from out there. Imagine… they shot subpar from outside and still won by 20!?!?! Scottie Reynolds is due for a monster game after scoring just 11 points in his last one, and this might be just the venue for him to get it done.

The trends tonight favor the Wildcats, including a 10-4 mark ATS in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning percentage of greater than .600 and 8-3 ATS following an ATS win the game before, not to mention 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. teams from the ACC. Duke, on the other hand, is just 2-8-1 in their last 11 vs. teams from the Big East, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Big Dance games overall, 2-10 in their last 12 Big Tourney games as a favorite and 0-5 ATS their last five as a favorite of less than 6 points.

The writing is on the wall boys, and the Wildcats are marching on to an Elite Eight appearance after an 84-78 upset win over Duke. Book it.


MEMPHIS --- I’ve backed these Tigers in their first two tourney games, going 1-1 thus far. They failed to show up in their first one, underestimating a very good Northridge team and winning by just 11. Once they awoke from their slumber, they put a beatdown on Maryland 89-70 in a game that was pretty much decided at halftime. The #1 reason I like Memphis is that they play defense. Yes, I realize it might not have shown vs. Northridge, but those guys shot lights out and weren’t afraid to pull the trigger. That doesn’t happen often against this defense and it won’t happen again tonight, even as good as Missouri has shown to be offensively.

In my opinion, Memphis is THE MOST athletic team in the tournament and can compete against any team left in the brackets for a full 40 minutes. I’m not saying they can beat them all, but I have no doubts they’ll compete against anyone that stands in their way and they’ll keep it close. Tonight all we’re asking them to do is win by a mere four or five points, something they’ve done often this year in and out of conference.

The Tigers get a bad rap for playing in a weak conference, but it’s the same conference they played in last year and yet they found themselves in the Big Dance Finals only a mere seconds away from pulling off a championship. Sure, they lost a few key players from that team, but coach Cal has done a nice job filling in the blanks with guys like Tyreke Evans and it doesn’t appear they’ve skipped a beat.

Now, back to their defense for a minute. Over the last five games, Memphis has allowed just 53 PPG, and on the season it’s only 57 per game. They do it by suffocating you on the perimeter and in the paint. It’s not often their opponents get really good shots at the basket. Most buckets against this team are “earned” because they simply don’t allow a lot of gimmes. Heck, I’ll be the first to say Congrats to Missouri if they’re able to score more than 70 points tonight as it’s not often this Memphis team has surrendered that many.

Memphis is 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference game and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a winning percentage of greater than .600. Missouri is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. teams from Conference USA. Hey, I give coach Anderson tons of respect and credit for what he’s been able to do with this Mizzou team this year, but it has to end sooner or later and I pick sooner. They’re good, but I don’t believe they’re as good as Memphis and it will show tonight. Lay the points.


LAKERS --- This one is quite simple. No Rasheed, No Iverson, No Rip Hamilton, No Chance. This line continues to climb so get in as early as you can. It opened at -7 ½ and has already worked its way up to nearly nine, but that’s still okay with me as I see a 15-20 point win from Kobe and the boys tonight.

Detroit has been bitten badly by the injury bug and will be without three-fifths of their starting tandem tonight at home where the Pistons are just 18-18 on the season. And have you noticed how well the Lakers have been playing lately? Even without Andrew Bynum, this team is thumping its opponents in an attempt to get the #1 overall seed and home court advantage throughout the playoffs. So don’t tell me they’ll “ease up” tonight and that this game “doesn’t matter”. IT DOES MATTER. They all do. Tonight will be no different and I fully expect the Lakers to put a charge into the Pistons tonight in this continuing road trip.

LA has covered their last four road games and six of their last seven vs. the Eastern Conference while the Pistons are a mere 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games including just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a home dog of 5-10 points. Easy pickins’ for the Lakers tonight as they unload on the Pistons, 109-95.

[Mr. IWS]

Balfe

NBA- Lakers -8.5

NCAA- Duke -2.5
NCAA- Pittsburgh -7
NCAA- Memphis -4.5
NCAA- Purdue +6.5

[Mr. IWS]

seabass steam
100* over duke/nova

[Mr. IWS]

NSA's Selection
CBB Villanova vs Duke 9:55 PM EST 20* Villanova +3
CBB Xavier vs Pittsburgh 7:25 PM EST 20* Xavier +7
CBB Purdue vs Connecticut 7:05 PM EST 20* Connecticut -6.5
CBB Missouri vs Memphis 9:35 PM EST 10* Memphis -4.5
NBA Phoenix @ Portland 10:35 PM EST 10* Phoenix +7
NBA Detroit @ LA Lakers 7:30 PM EST 10* LA Lakers -7.5

[Mr. IWS]

Asa 5*.....
Yes its a 5* not a 6* .....
Villanova

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | NBA Sides Double-Dime Bet
804 CHI -5.5 (-110) SportBet vs 803 MIA
Analysis: ** NBA 2* PERSONAL PLAY **

Miami Playing 4th Game in 5 Nights..."4-12" ATS on Back 2 Backs...

Bulls looking for REVENGE after losing All 3 to them so far this year...with the L/2 being by a total of "5" Pts...

Historically, Bulls "5-1" SU at home vs Miami in L/6 Mettings...

My Numbers show that although 6 is a "Fair Number"..."8" is closer to the "True Number"...I expect this to be a Double Digit Win for Bulls Tonight...VR

Thu, 03/26/09 - 9:35 PMvegas-runner | CBB Total Double-Dime Bet
812 Memphis / 811 Missouri Under 142.5 SportBet
Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **

Fellas, rather than have you wait...so that I can pass this along as "Late Steam" at 6:30pm, in hopes of an even BETTER NUMBER...I decided that I would simply send it out now, since we won't need a Late Steam Update Tonight with such a small board...

And instead I ask that you WAIT FOR THE BEST NUMBER...I can guarantee you that the line move is NOT Steam...Rather, OVER has become the most Lop-Sided BET of the night...And every Book will need this one to stay UNDER big-time, so no surprise if we see this continue to climb...

Which helps prove it's not Steam because the Books wouldn't offer a 6PT MIDDLE on such a Marquee Match-Up...VR


Thu, 03/26/09 - 7:05 PMvegas-runner | CBB Sides Double-Dime Bet
813 Purdue 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 814 UConn
Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **


Thu, 03/26/09 - 7:00 PMvegas-runner | CBB Money Line Double-Dime Bet
698 Old Dominion (-130) Bookmaker.com vs 697 James Madison
Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* (5.5PT) BONUS TEASER PLAY of the DAY **


OLD DOMINION -1.5 & MISSOURI + 10...(2*)


(TEASERS are NOT counted towards BetLikeAPro Program because I know that everyone may not have access to them...But as I've said before, they've served us well selectively...and if I'm putting my Cash Down...then I'm going to make sure I pass it along...VR)


Thu, 03/26/09 - 9:55 PMvegas-runner | CBB Sides Triple-Dime Bet
808 Duke -2.0 (-110) Bodog vs 807 Villanova
Analysis: ***** NCAA TOURNAMENT "SWEET 16" 5* GAME of the YEAR *****

(BODOG, STATIONS, and a Handful of LOCALS I've spoken to already are Using -2...If your Book don't go there by Tip-Off, which they should with ALL the Money being Wagered on NOVA on the ML/STRAIGHT/PARLAY/TEASERS...then PLEASE SPEND the 10 Cents and BUY the 1/2 down to -2 and make it a 1 Possession Game...Just smart business for such a Big Bet)

[Mr. IWS]

Sebastian

100 Memphis
50 Purdue/CT Under
30 Purdue
20 Pitt

50 Phx/Por Over

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers

200,000* ABSOLUTE LOCK OF MY LIFE!
Your winner here is on Villanova!

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

7-Unit Play. Take Villanova (+2.5) over Duke
Note: This is our NCAA Tournament Game of the Year.

This is the matchup that I was hoping for when I saw the brackets released on Selection Sunday. I can’t fully explain why, but I simply feel like Villanova matches up particularly well with this Duke team and that the Wildcats have the athleticism and the guard play to win this game outright. Throw in the fact that Villanova should have strong support from a pro-Big East crowd in Boston and I think that the underdog will get it done here.

In several ways this ‘Nova team reminds me a bit of the West Virginia squad that knocked off Duke last year and their guards are better than the VCU team that tore up Duke in the first round of 2007. Villanova has four talented, fearless, get-to-the-basket guards that will not be intimidated by going up against the Dukies. Villanova also has four athletic frontcourt players that should be able to at least hold their own on the glass if not hold a sizeable advantage there. Dante Cunningham is no Joe Alexander, but he is a talented post player that can step away from the basket and make shots. He is the Wildcats leading scorer and was an All-Big East performer. But Cunningham isn’t even the Money Man for this Wildcats team. That would be Scottie Reynolds, the best guard in the tournament that no one is talking about. Two years ago, as a freshman, Reynolds went bonkers at the end of the year, topping 20 points in six of his last seven games, including a 40-point outburst in a win at Connecticut. Last year he closed the season with three of five at 20+, including 21 and 25 in the opening two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. The kid is fearless and skilled and I don’t think that the Blue Devils have anyone to guard him. Now, Reynolds had been banged up over the last week or so and he’s only managed 21 points in his last three games. I’ll be stunned if he doesn’t have at least that many points in this game tonight.

Duke is Duke. You can’t really knock them. They are a damn fine team and they deserve to be where they are. They also have some big wins in the nonconference this year. But if you look at the teams that beat them this year – Michigan, Wake, North Carolina, B.C. and Clemson – they all have things in common. All five of them have at least one exceptional scoring guard, a la Reynolds. Also, four of the five (Michigan is the exception) was bigger and stronger than Duke on the interior. And finally, all five teams beat Duke on the road, outside the coziness of Cameron Indoor. Villanova is at least as good as Michigan, Clemson or Boston College, so I think that they can win this game.

I brought up the fact that they are playing in Boston. To me that makes a significant difference. One of the things that makes Duke so tough to beat is the fact that the officials are so disgustingly pro-Duke it’s playing against a sixth player. And that’s not Duke-bashing. That’s me having watched about 45-50 Duke games just in the last two years and seeing it with my own eyes. But there won’t be ACC or Big East officials working tonight’s game (and if we end up with Ed Hightower I’m going to kill someone) so they will be less inclined to give Duke those “questionable” calls that they rely on. And if things do start to look fishy, don’t think for one second that the Boston crowd, with plenty of Philly fans making the trip, won’t let them hear about it. Villanova will have the crowd behind them, and for an underdog that’s a huge plus. Duke has not played well against the Big East – going just 2-8-1 ATS against them – and Duke has not been a good bet in the NCAA Tournament – 1-5 ATS overall and 2-10 ATS as a favorite.

Finally, does anything strike you as odd about this line? This is Duke, so the oddsmakers don’t have to do anything to entice the betting public to get behind the Blue Devils. But isn’t this line strangely low? Well, I went back over the last 12 years and analyzed how Duke performs in the line range of Duke +2 to Duke -5 and the results were about what I expected. This current group of Dukies is just 5-10 ATS in this line range. Over the last five years the program is just 10-17 ATS in this range and if you go all the way back to 1997-98 the Duke Blue Devils are just 18-28 (39.1 percent) against the spread between +2 and -5. Also, they are just 6-14 ATS in this line range, since 1997, in games played after Feb. 11. And if you look back over the last four years here were the spreads for their last games of the year: -4 (WVU), -6 (VCU), -5 (LSU), -4 (Mich. St.), +2 (UConn)*, +3.5 (Kansas), -13.5 (Indiana), -4 (Arizona)*, -4.5 (Florida), +9.5 (UConn)*, -1 (Kentucky). That’s 11 games and Duke was 1-10 SU, 3-8 ATS. If you throw out the Indiana and +9.5 Connecticut spreads you can see that in games with “tight” lines the Blue Devils are just 2-7 ATS and they lost outright in eight of the nine games. That, to me, is an indicator.


2.5-Unit Play. Take Missouri (+4.5) over Memphis
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 141.5 Missouri vs. Memphis

I think I’ve made my case pretty clear against the Memphis Tigers over the last few weeks. They are the most overrated team left in the field by virtue of the fact that they haven’t played anyone and they haven’t beaten anyone all season long. Their best win was over a soft Gonzaga team – and that’s it. Well, Utah beat Gonzaga this year and so did Portland State, but that doesn’t mean that they’re Final Four contenders now does it? In fact, Memphis’ win over No. 55-rated Maryland – the team that finished EIGHTH in the ACC – is the third-best win that Memphis has this year. I understand that they dominated that pathetic excuse for a conference that CUSA is this season, and that they made a mind at the window doing it. But Missouri has faced off against twice as many Top 50 opponents this year (16) than Memphis (7) and has an edge in Top 50 wins by a WIDE margin (11 to 4). Frankly, Missouri has played better against better competition this year. Further, Missouri has wins over Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, USC and Cal. I would take just about any one of those wins over a victory against Gonzaga.

The teams that beat Memphis this year – Syracuse, Georgetown, Xavier – all had one thing in common: strength on the interior. All three of those teams had big forwards that could bang on the glass with Memphis. Memphis is one of the worst shooting teams in the country, so most of their offense is simply throw it up on the glass and go get it. Well, I believe that Missouri is big enough and strong enough to hold its own on the interior. If they do that they will force Memphis’ guards to make plays and hit shots. They won’t do it. Memphis’ guards played out of their heads last weekend. And while you might look at that and say, “See, they are capable of playing that well.” I look at it and say, “They’ve never played that well in their lives and they aren’t going to do it again.” Case in point: Memphis shot 58.5 percent against Maryland! They shot 52.6 percent from 3-point land (10-for-19)! So what do you think the odds are that a team that shoots 32.9 percent from 3-point territory (No. 230 in the country) comes even close to hitting 50 percent from deep again? I think the odds are pretty slim.

Memphis isn’t playing Tulane. The’re not playing Tulsa. They’re not playing Southern Miss. In the Sweet 16 Memphis will be playing big boy teams from big boy conferences. I think that this Tigers team is garbage, and even if they win I’ll be right back betting against them to get smoked by Connecticut. I think we have an outright winner here, but regardless I’d like to think that the points are good.

1.5-Unit Play.TEASER:Take Villanova (+7.5) over Duke (10 p.m.) AND Take Missouri (+9.5) over Memphis

[Mr. IWS]

M@linsky

4- Purdue +6.5

4- Portland -6.5

[Mr. IWS]

DOC

6 Units Memphis -4.5

3 Units Villanova +2


NHL

5 Unit Play. Take Nashville +110 over San Jose

These two teams will meet for the fourth time this year tonight in Nashville, with San Jose tied for first place in the west with Detroit while Nashville is one point out of the eight and final spot for the playoffs. Two of the meetings happened in November were the teams split each, winning on each other home ice with Nashville giving up 57 shots at Anaheim and escaping with a 4-3 win in their first meeting of the season. The last two games with the Sharks the Predators have giving up an average of thirty five shots vs. San Jose which seems high but is right on par for a San Jose team that averages 34 shots vs. the league. San Jose comes into tonight off a 6-5 shootout loss last night in Chicago in a game that saw them come back from a three goal deficit to tie the game in the final moments and to get a point by going to the overtime. Last nights loss was the Sharks first since having some closed door meetings with the highest brass in the organization, with the amount of effort it took for this team to come back last night for a team that is still dealing with a ton of injuries I can't see how they will match a rested and desperate Nashville team energy tonight in just about what is the definition of a must win game and while that doesn't mean a automatic win for the Predators the Sharks will also start backup goalie Brain Boucher adding to the list of things Sharks are up against tonight with besides a hungry Nashville. Ton of value with the home puppy


2 Unit Play. Take Edmonton at Phoenix Over 5.5

Phoenix has lost all three meetings this year to the Oilers with the first two games going over before the last one in February stayed under all listed at 5.5 goals. Oilers head coach Craig Mactavish quoted in the audio saying 'zero chance of anybody but Roloson starting until a playoff spot is solidified'. While I am sure he knows more than me but Roloson has played a ton lately and tonight will be his twenty third straight start since February 8th, with his last game vs. Detroit on Tuesday where he was barrage with 44 shots and didn't let one get by him until late in the third period after the high powered Red Wings offense just keep up a consist attack. I watched most of that game and it looked like to me he was tired, the Oilers seem like they went into a shell trying to protect a 1-0 lead that ultimately back fired on them. Now they head to the desert to face a young, loose Phoenix team playing for pride and more importantly to get better for next year. The odds maker makes little adjustment to the style these teams played when meeting each other this year where in the first two meetings went over the 5.5 with under money attached before the last game where they put some over money where the game stayed under. These two teams have average 54 shots a game and six goals in the three meetings this and we get very little adjustment here with another 5.5 with small juice attached. I made this total at 6 flat by numbers and at the very least I think should be 5.5 over minus 30. With all that said has me on the over here.

[Mr. IWS]

IC

4 Unit Play. Take James Madison +6.5 over Old Dominion (Thursday @ 7pm est). Let's ride the San Diego State win to another pod winner hopefully today. Give JMU a lot of credit. They went into Liberty and won by 23 and beat Mt. St. Marys at home by 11. Liberty was ranked outside the top 200 but they had just crushed Rider at home and JMU just waltzed in and won by 23 points on the road. This team is a top 125 team that faces a top 100 team within their own conference today in ODU. This team beat ODU by 8 on the road and most recently lost to ODU by 6. In games like these, often you see the team that lost the mots rencet meeting gets the revenge - you see this countless times in the conference tournament as well. You think to yourself, that's crazy, how did this team beat them in the regular season and now lose today? It's all motivation - and in a tournament such as this, where it's not the Dance, just another opportunity to play, motivation becomes more of a factor. I like how JMU shoots 75.7% from the line as compared to ODU who shoots 63.3% from the line. ODU keeps getting it barely covering against Belmont and the Citadel winning by 8 and 8. Keep in mind they were down to Belmont at half and most of the way. Now, they face an ODU team that has beat this team on the road before (then lost at home to this team) and is not intimidated from the opening tip. ODU has been pressing its luck a bit of late but I think despite if they win this game, JMU getting the 6.5 points is a very nice play here given that they shoot better free throws and heck, they have a 50% of winning this game outright so why not take the points here. The Road team is 7-2 ATS between these two squads of late.



4 Unit Play. Take Under 202.5 between Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls (Thursday @ 8pm). I wrote an article about the myth of hoops consensus on the page today and if you get a chance check it out. I have changed my spreadsheets accordingly. As per today's play, let's ride the Under today in Chicago. If you are looking for another play, I took a long look at the Pistons today at home against the Lakers and a possible over there, but I laid off as the Lakers have some revenge coming into that game and they are playing strong basketball. I think the under here in Chicago is live. For starters, Derrick Rose is said to be questionable. Next, the Bulls have revenge against the Heat from their loss earlier this year when Wade hit the 3 point shot at the buzzer after stealing the ball. The Bulls are running just 7 deep right now as Kirk took over the point guard duties against the Pistons - and won. I understand the last contest between these two teams went over, but it also went into overtime sessions. There was 208 points scored in regulation in that game when the Bulls were an active 5 point dog. This game is a bit different as the Bulls are favored. The last time these two teams met in Chicago, the Heat won 95-93 and the game totaled at 188. Prior to that in Miami, the game totaled at 167 when these two teams met the day after Christmas. I think the total is placed as high as it is because of what happened in the last contest but these two teams are more of an under team when they face each other. The last 4 of 5 and 5 of 7 between these two have gone under. This is the last road game for Miami before they return home. This team just faced Indiana and comes off a very low scoring game that totaled 178 and that game's total was set at 204.5. Against Memphis, this team put up 94 points and the total closed at 176 from the line originally being set at 195. This team also played an Under at Cleveland (189), New Jersey (184) and Philly 162. The Bulls are just running 7 deep as well and I feel that this game will be a bit more methodical as the Bulls will run Tyrus Thomas, Gordon, Kirk, Salmons, Tim Thomas, Noah, Miller and Hunter. Note: Tyrus and Lindsay only played 4 minutes a peice roughly against the Pistons - so really, this team ran 6 guys for quite a bit of the game.

Good luck,

Indian Cowboy.

[Mr. IWS]

rickonbach

top


blazers

[Mr. IWS]

RAS side play

Villanova and Michigan State
__________________

[Mr. IWS]

Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, March 26, 2009
$25.00 Guaranteed: Today in the COLLEGE HOOPS we our featuring our $500,000 NCAA TOURNAMENT SWEET 16 PLAY OF THE YEAR! You can get this HUGE WINNER for just $25 and as always you WILL WIN THIS GAME or YOU WILL NOT BE CHARGED! We are the WINNING MACHINES at Winners Inc.! We are now on an 85-39 run with all of our guaranteed Selections And we are currently 36-25 in the NBA and 64-35 in College Hoops for the year! 3/26/2009

$500,000 NCAA TOURNAMENT SWEET 16 PLAY OF THE YEAR
808 Duke -2.5 9:55 EST

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

Total Of Month Suns Under

Other Top Plays
Portland
Missouri Under
Duke
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[Mr. IWS]

STAN SHARP

TRIPLE DIME



MEMPHIS -4.5 0VER MISSOURI @ 930 est


Memphis showed they were for real on saturday with their total destruction of maryland . Tonight they face a missouri team that was life and death with marquette on sunday . Memphis is way too talented for missourI and should advance to the next round with an easy win . Stan has memphis winning by 10- 12 points . *** TRIPLE DIME ***

"SWEET 16 GAME OF THE MONTH "

[Mr. IWS]

MATT FAG RO
**8** #1 RATED TNT MARCH REPORT *61% RUN*
***** won another Star Attraction TV game as Boston stayed within the number against Orlando! His NBA BIG GAME Reports have been money going 68-45-1 ATS (60.2%) with his last 114 TOP PLAYS and since the All-Star Break he is a TREMENDOUS 25-16 ATS (61%)! Last month, his #1 TNT Report won (Houston 2/26) and this one will just as easy!

PORTLAND

[Mr. IWS]

The real animal


Pick title: 3* Pittsburgh -6 1/2 at Olympic
Pick Date: 03/26/2009
Pick description:
Xavier is a formidable dog historically but I can't go against any team that beat Connecticut twice this year. That to me is just an unbelievable accomplishment and the Panthers can thank the spectacular Sam Young, who had 56 points in the two games versus the Huskies and closed out last weekend's action pouring in 32 versus Oklahoma State. I really believe this is the year Pittsburgh gets the monkey off their back and advances to the Final Four. They've been stymied in the past having not reached that point and actually never defeating anybody higher than a #6 seed. Providing Young and DeJuan Blair don't get into early foul trouble, they should outlast Xavier. That wasn't a great Wisconsin team the Musketeers beat last week to get here and their first round win over Portland State was a joke. I'm not sold on this team away from home either. While they prevailed last week against relatively easy foes to reach the Sweet 16, Xavier lost on the road at Richmond, Charlotte, Duquense, and Dayton in conference play. They lost to Duke by 18 points on a neutral floor in December. I firmly believe the Elite Eight team last year that had Drew Lavender, Josh Duncan, and Stanley Burrell was far better than this year's Xavier squad. I also sense the best thing that might have happened to the Panthers is their first-round loss to West Virginia in the Big East tournament. It served as a wake-up call and also should have them very fresh for the big dance. They are 0-2 ATS so far in this tournament and dropped three straight to the number dating back to the Mountaineer game. This team is just too good to continue not getting the bacon. Take Pittsburgh.

[Mr. IWS]

teddy june


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2-0 last nite

Pittsburgh
Memphis

nba
Portland

[Mr. IWS]

EZ Winners

10* Memphis -4.5 (5-2 on his 10*'s this year)
5* Villinova +2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Stu Finer

2500 Dime Sweet 16 Big Dance Winner #1


Missouri (141) vs Memphis (-4') @ Glendale, AZ - 9:35 p.m. EST

In this battle of Tigers, look for the ones from Memphis to dominate as they'll blast Missouri by double digits tonight. Mizzou just doesn't have the size inside to compete with Memphis as Antonio Anderson, Robert Dozier and Shawn Taggart will repeatedly crash the boards and have their way inside. And then there's super frosh Tyreke Evans who runs the show for Memphis. This team just pounded Maryland by 19 points and shot better than 58% from the floor in doing such. They play great defense (ranked fourth nationally) and will force a poor outside shooting Missouri team to make deep shots. It's not happening tonight for a Mizzou team that should've lost to Marquette last Sunday and is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a neutral site dog. Memphis is on spread runs of 20-11 as a chalk and 6-1 in non-conference games, They've won 27 straight games and while it's been a nice run for DeMarre Carroll (tweaked his left ankle yesterday) and Missouri, it comes to a close tonight as John Caliparai's Tigers blow em out.

MEMPHIS (-4') 2500 Dime High Roller


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Stu's 2500 Dime Sweet 16 Big Dance Winner #2


Villanova (148) vs Duke (-2) @ Boston - 9:55 p.m. EST

Villanova benefitted last week from playing its first two games basically at home in Philly against opponents that the Wildcats matched up well against in American and UCLA. No such luck tonight in Boston as Duke continues its high-level of play and covers this small price. The Blue Devils have shot better than 40% from beyond the arc in five straight games (all wins) and they'll be draining treys again tonight. Coach K's club has won 10 of its last 11 games with the lone loss coming in the regular season finale at UNC. Nova has failed to cover in three of its last four overall and is 1-4 ATS in its last five as a neutral site dog. Look for the Devils to throw a variety of defenders, such as Nolan Smith, Elliott Williams and Jon Scheyer at the Cats' Scottie Reynolds in an attempt to frustrate and slow down the Nova scorer. Gerald Henderson and Kyle Singler will keep driving to the hole for inside hoops, or kicking it outside for open looks as Duke scores this win and cover to advance to the Elite Eight.


DUKE (-2) 2500 Dime High Roller


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Stu's 100 Dime Big Dance Trio Game #1


Purdue (134) vs UConn (-6') @ Glendale, AZ - 7:05 p.m. EST

Forget about being distracted about possible recruiting violations as those have nothing to do with this UConn team and the Huskies will beat Purdue by double digits tonight. The Huskies blasted UTC and Texas A&M last weekend and tonight the undersized Boilermakers (just one starter over 6-foot-8) will be dominated inside by Jeff Adrien, Hasheem Thabeet and the Huskies. UConn is on ATS runs of 5-1 on neutral courts, 5-2 in non-conference games and 4-1 when laying points on a neutral court. Purdue lost three of its last four regular season games, and then benefitted by playing the Big Ten Tournament close to home in Indianapolis before slipping past both Northern Iowa and Washington last weekend. But they certainly don't have the athletes to stay with the Huskies as Purdue's season draws to a close tonight. Another big performance from Jeff Adrien and the Huskies as they roll.


UCONN (-6') 100 Dimes


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Stu's 100 Dime Big Dance Trio Game #2

Xavier (+7) vs Pittsburgh (138') @ Boston - 7:25 p.m. EST

Xavaier has the bulk and size to bang around with Pittsburgh and the Muskateers, who were bounced in the Elite Eight last year, will easily stay inside this number tonight in Boston. Xavier has won and covered three of its last four overall, all on neutral courts, and they've covered four straight non-conference games. They start three players who are all taller than Pitt's tallest (DeJuan Blair) as this team is big at every position. The Panthers are on ATS slides of 1-5 in the Big Dance and 1-4-1 as a neutral site favorite after struggling with both East Tennessee State and Oklahoma State in the first two rounds. Levance Fields is still battling through a groin injury and Pitt is facing a defensively tough Xavier team that has held five of its last eight foes under 60 points. Big effort tonight from B.J. Raymond and the Muskateers as they give Pitt all it can handle in staying inside this price.


XAVIER (+7) 100 Dimes

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Stu's 100 Dime Big Dance Trio Game #3

Xavier (+7) vs Pittsburgh (138') @ Boston - 7:25 p.m. EST

Both of these clubs pride themselves on tough defense and points will come at a premium as this Sweet 16 battle stays under the final price. Pitt has stayed low in five of its last six neutral court affairs and five of its last seven non-conference games. The Muskateers have stayed low in four straight overall and seven straight versus teams with winning records. They've limited their last four opponents to just 52.5 ppg and held seven of their last eight opponents under 60 points. They've got the size to bang with the Panthers and this game will stay under the final total.


UNDER (138') 100 Dimes

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

50 Vill
10 Suns
3 Heat
5 Xavier
4 Memphis

[Mr. IWS]

SCORE
400 CONNECTICUT
300 pittsburgh
300 villanova
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