3-26-09 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

03-26-2009, 03:50 PM

Larry Ness' 15* TV Game of the Week-NBA (62% NBA run s/Feb 6)
My 15* TV Game of the Week is on the Por Blazers at 10:35 ET. The Suns looked "dead in the water" after a six-game losing streak from Mar 3-12. However, last night's thrilling 118-114 win at home over the Jazz gave them SIX straight wins (5-1 ATS mark, with the loss coming by a half-point). Stoudemire (21.4-8.1) has been sidelined since mid-February and Barbosa (14.3) has been out the last four games with a knee injury (not expected back until April). Shaq (18.1-8.6) continues to defy his age, while small forwards Hill (11.4-5.0) and Barnes (10.5-5.4) are doing very good jobs starting alongside of him in the frontcourt. Last night, Hill had the go-ahead basket with about 30 seconds left, while Barnes added the two game-clinching (and COVERING) free throws. Richardson (17.6 PPG in his 61 games with the Suns) has been on quite a roll in the team's winning streak (26.8 PPG) and while Nash (15.3-9.7 APG) may no longer play at an MVP-level, there are few teams who wouldn't love to have him directing their offense. The Suns enter this game three games behind the Mavs for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. It should also be noted that the Blazers, while just 1 1/2 games out of the Northwest Division lead (tied at 44-27 with the Jazz), are also just one game up on the Mavs in the West's overall playoff picture, meaning they are just FOUR games ahead of the Suns. A Phoenix win tonight and the Blazers would be just three games clear of the playoff "cut line!" Portland survived their five-game road trip by going 3-2 but then returned home and lost to Philly in OT on Monday. That was an "opportunity lost," as the 76ers were playing their fifth game in seven days. Roy (23.0-4.7-5.1) and Aldridge (17.9-7.3) have led this team all year but Portland's developed a solid (and fairly deep) group of role players. PG Blake (11.2-5.0) is not spectacular but he is pretty good. Batum (5.3-2.7)) is the nominal starter at small forward (good defensive player), while Outlaw (12.8-4.3) continues to supply an excellent 'spark' at that position off the bench. Rookie guard Fernandez (10.2) should easily make the All-Rookie team this year, while Rodriguez (4.3-4.0 APG) is a nice backup to Blake at the point. Oden (8.8-7.2) returned from a 15-game absence on the team's recent road trip and after totaling just 13 points in his first three games, had 13 points (plus eight rebounds) in Monday's loss (got a standing ovation from the crowd). Pryzbilla (5.6-8.6) has started 19 straight games at center, grabbing double digits in rebounds in 13 of them, averaging 10.6 per game in that stretch. These teams met twice in November, with the Suns winning each time (both were played in Phoenix). They then met Dec 18 in Portland, where the Blazers snapped an 11-game series losing streak to the Suns. Portland won 124-119, thanks to a career-high 52 points from Brandon Roy. The Suns are averaging 128.8 PPG over their last five games and will remember that prior to that Dec 18 loss, had won 11 straight over the Blazers, by an average margin of just under 12 PPG. However, the Suns are an old team with Shaq (37) Hill (36) and Nash (35). Playing back-to-back nights is never easy (especially for Shaq) and coming off that nail-biter with the Jazz makes the situation even tougher. The Blazers are coming dangerously close to that playoff "cut line" and are determined to end their five-year postseason drought this season. Tonight's as good a time as any to "make a statement." TV Game of the Week 15* Por Blazers.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 20* Sweet 16 GOY (3-0?)-Thursday
My 20* Sweet 16 GOY is on U Conn at 7:05 ET. The Big East has five teams in this year's Sweet 16, the most-ever by a single conference in any one season in NCAA tourney history. Purdue of the Big 10 (tourney champ) joins Michigan St (regular season champ) as one of two Big 10 teams in TY's Sweet 16. Is this is as simple as taking one conference over the other? It never is but U Conn and the Big East sure look "tough to beat," so far. The Huskies struggled through a 17-14 season a two years back and then last year, when Calhoun led his Huskies back into the Big Dance with a 24-8 mark, they were upset in the first round by San Diego of the WCC. U Conn was one of six schools to reach the No. 1 spot in this year's AP poll and struggled through a brutal regular season schedule (tied for second at 15-3 with Pitt), only to lose its first game in the Big East tourney, a classic six-overtime defeat at the hands of Syracuse. Speaking of Syracuse, it was against the Orange on Feb 11 that U Conn lost guard Dyson (13.2-4.1-3.2) to a season-ending injury. Dyson was not only an excellent offensive player but he was also U Conn's best perimeter defender. However, seniors Price (14.6-3.4-4.8) and Austrie (7.0) plus freshman Walker (8.7-3.5-2.8) hardly "leave the cupboard bare" on the perimeter. The frontcourt consists of the 6-7 Adrien (13.9-10.2), the 7-3 Thabeet (13.7-10.7) and the 6-9 Robinson (8.0-5.4) and that trio will make any opponent 'sweat' just a little. Expectations were high in West Lafayette this year but the Boilermakers finished the Big 10's regular season schedule 11-7, a full FOUR games behind Michigan St. However, with the 6-8 Hummel (12.4-7.0) finally over his lingering back troubles, the Boilermakers won their first-ever Big 10 tourney title. Hummel was the MVP, as always getting help from fellow sophs Moore (14.0-4.7-3.1) and the 6-10 Johnson (13.4-5.6). Starting with the above three are two guards, 5-9 freshman Jackson (5.8-2.4-3.3) plus Big 10 defensive p-o-y Kramer (5.2-3.0-2.5). Other contributors are guards Grant (8.0) and Green (4.0-3.6) plus the 6-9 Calasan (6.4-2.9). In TY's tourney, U Conn owns dominating wins over Tenn-Chattanooga (103-47) plus Texas A&M (92-66), while the Boilermakers have edged Northern Iowa (61-56) and Washington (76-74). Beating Washington in Portland, Oregon was impressive but U-Dub's frontline was anchored by the 6-7 Brockman and the 6-6 Pondexter, while U Conn offers up the 6-7 Adrien and the 7-3 Thabeet (both average better than 10 RPG) plus the late-charging Robinson. Robinson didn't get on the court until Dec 15 but the junior has been outstanding as of late, averaging 21.3 PPG and 8.7 RPG over U Conn's last three games. Adrien's averaged 18.0-12.0 in the two NCAA wins and while Thabeet only took two shots vs Texas A&M (six points / four rebounds) in playing only 20 minutes due to foul trouble, he had 20 points and 13 rebounds vs Chattanooga. I mentioned earlier that Hummel was the Big 10 tourney MVP but that was because of his first two games (39 points / 17 rebounds). He had just nine points in the team's title-game win over Ohio St (made just 2-of-10 shots) and in Purdue's two NCAA wins, has made just 6-of-17 shots. That's 8-of-27 (29.6 percent) from the floor in his last three games. Johnson (22 points) was able to dominate vs Washington but that will NOT be the case in this one. The 6-9 Calasan has scored just seven points with one rebound in 19 minutes of action through two NCAA games and U Conn's domination of the paint should be HUGE in this game. Calhoun's got a great history in the NCAA tourney and with Dyson, the Huskies would likely be the favorite to "win it all" this year. Even without him, U Conn may be "the team to beat." As for this game, I won't call it "easy pickings" but I don't see it being very close, either. Sweet 16 GOY 20* U Conn.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-CBB (62% since March 10)-Thursday
My Las Vegas Insider is on Memphis at 9:35 ET. I love these Missouri Tigers and expected them to easily dispatch of slumping Marquette on Sunday. However, the Golden Eagles were able to claw their way back into that contest, effectively diffusing Missouri's brand of "40 Minutes of Hell." Misouri escaped with an 83-79 win and a 'miracle cover.' When forced into a half-court game, Missouri can look quite ordinary. Memphis was far from perfect in its first round game, needing an amazing 10-of-15 effort on three-pointers by reserve guard Sallie (5.7) to escape 81-70 vs CS-Northridge. However, Memphis brought its "A-game" against Maryland, winning with a near-flawless performance. The Tigers shot a season-high 58.5 percent from the field for the game. They led 53-33 at the half on the way to an 89-70 win, which allowed Memphis to advance to the Sweet 16 for the fourth straight year. The 6-8 Carroll (16.7-7.3) and the 6-9 Lyons (14.6-6.0) have been terrific all year for Missouri, while the 6-7 Lawrence (9.0) leads a group of seven other players who average 11.5 MPG or more (two other players play just under 10 per game) for Missouri. Tiller (8.0-3.6 APG) and Taylor (6.5-3.4 APG) have both played well at the point and it now looks as if Tiller's wrist injury will NOT keep him out of Thursday's game. Missouri is 5-0 SU and ATS in winning the Big 12 tourney and its first two games of the NCAA tourney plus these Tigers are 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS since Jan 14. However, the Memphis Tigers are on quite a run of their own. Memphis lost THREE of five games from Nov 23 through Dec 20 but have since won 27 straight. How many of those wins have come by LESS than the current pointspread in this game? Try just TWO, a one-point win at Tulsa on Jan 13 and a two-point win at Tennessee on Jan 24. Does Missouri own enough dimensions in its own offense to deal with the relentless half-court defensive pressure John Calipari's squad brings each and every game? Memphis allows just 57.6 PPG (6th-best), a 36.6 opponents' FG percent (No. 1 in the nation) and 29.7 percent on three-point shots (10th-best). All of Memphis' starters are 6-5 or bigger. Evans (16.6-5.4-3.9) is a 6-6 freshman and is joined by 6-5 junior Mack (8.9) in the starting backcourt. The 6-6 Anderson (10.0-4.8-4.5) is capping an excellent four-year career as a swingman, while 6-9 senior Dozier (12.7-7.2) and 6-10 junior Taggert (10.5-7.6) round out the starting five. Mike Anderson left UAB (and C-USA) to come to Missouri but here he's going "Back to the Future" against Memphis and it's the same-old, same-old. Las Vegas Insider Memphis.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CBB (Thursday)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on Old Dominion at 7:00 ET. James Madison got off to a fast 9-3 start last year but collapsed, finishing at 13-17. Head coach Keener resigned before the year was over and to start this year, JMU brought in Matt Brady, who led Marist to a four-year mark of 73-50, winning more games than previous year in each one of his four seasons with the Red Foxes. This year's team suffered a major loss when guard Jalloh, a St Joe's transfer who averaged 15.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG and 2.9 APG for JMU last season, was lost for this season (shoulder injury) after just six games. The team rallied around the 6-6 James (14.3) plus the 6-7 Swanston (11.9-3.6) and 6-5 freshman Wells (11.7-5.6) up front. Minus Jalloh in the backcourt, it's been 6-4 freshman Moore (10.6-3.7-2.9) and junior guard Curtis (9.5-4.2-2.9). The Dukes finished the regular season just 9-9 in CAA play and with four losses in its last six games, just 18-13 overall. The Dukes beat Wm and Mary in the CAA tourney but then lost to George Mason. In the CIT, the Dukes have beaten Mt St Mary's at home and won impressively at Liberty, 88-65. James hurt his hand vs Mt St Mary's (played 13 minutes and didn't score) and then sat out the Liberty game. He has practiced the last two days and will attempt to play tonight but head coach Brady said his effectiveness will determine how many minutes he gets. "I don't know that he's 100 percent healthy," Brady said. "So I said to him, 'Look, we're going to put you out there. You're going to be the first front-court sub. If you can get it going, if you can play through the discomfort, we'll keep you in there.' He's well aware of the fact that he's limited. He recognizes that if he can't help us, that we're better served not trying to play him." In his absence, 6-5 freshman small forward Wells has averaged 15.5 PPG and 7.0 RPG and freshman guard Moore, 17.5 PPG. Curtis has averaged 17.5 PPG and while Swanston had a terrible game vs Mt St Mary's, he had 27 points vs Liberty. As for Old Dominion, Blaine Taylor has had more than just a little success in Norfolk. His Monarchs are 23-10 this year and 159-94 (.628) in his eight years at the school. The 2005 team won the CAA tourney and finished the year with 28 wins, after losing to Mich St in the NCAA tourney. The '06 team won 24 games and made the NIT Final 4 and the '07 team won 24 games and received an at-large NCAA bid (lost to Butler). This year's team went 12-6 in CAA play (three games better than JMU) and beginning with an 80-74 win at James Madison on Jan 28, has won 10 of its last 12 games. The 6-10 Lee (15.5-5.7) has not been dominant in two CIT games so far (10.5-5.5) but he'll be a tough matchup for the Dukes (had 20 and 23 points in the two meetings this year). Starting with him in the frontcourt are 6-5 swingman Finney (10.1-6.1) and the 6-8 Hassell (6.9-4.8) with the 6-8 Carter (8.0-4.7) and the 6-6 Adams (5.4-4.0) contributing off the bench. The backcourt starters are James (6.9-4.5 APG) and Neely (6.6), with Bazemore (4.4) in reserve. With James (team's leading scorer) likely less than 100 percent for JMU (assuming he even plays), this line is a bargain at 6 or 6 1/2 (Monarchs were minus-10 at home vs JMU in the regular season, with a healthy James). Taylor's teams averaged 25.3 wins per season overa three-year span (two NCAA appearances, as well as an NIT final 4 one), before last year's team dipped to 18 wins. This year's team has bounced back to win 23 times in 2008-09 and a win here makes it 24 and counting, with a date vs Bradley for the CIT title up next. Lay the 'short' number. Oddsmaker's Error on Old Dominion.

Good Luck...Larry

Mr. IWS

03-26-2009, 03:52 PM

Brandon Lang
Thursday ...
50 Dime Villanova

FREE - Missouri (See daily video for your analysis)

NOTE: One game. One winner. Four in a row.

Truth be told, I really didn't think I was going to have another 50 dimer this year. Didn't think I would get a game and a line that warranted it.

However, when I saw the Villanova/Duke matchup I predicted to my pal Chris Jordan that Vegas would make the Blue Devils the favorite and Vegas didn’t' disappoint me.

How soon we forget the 27-point implosion by Duke at Clemson. Bottom line is this team just isn't as good as everyone thinks they are and they are not going to beat a Big East team. Not this year.

You look at the ACC in this tourney. Florida State and its embarrassing loss to Wisconsin. Clemson loses to Michigan. Maryland blown out by Memphis. Boston College getting crushed by Southern Cal.

Let's delve deeper into this analysis on 50 Dime Villanova, as we take a look at a pair of similar teams that will be entirely different when the ball is tossed up tonight.

We keep hearing that Memphis came into this event with a chip on its shoulder, but I'd have to argue the Wildcats can say the exact same thing since they've never really been mentioned with the 'elite' Big East teams - most notably the three No. 1 seeds. Then everyone marveled over Syracuse thanks to its marathon wins in the conference tourney. But, maybe someone should have been talking about the boys out of Philly.

The Wildcats beat Pitt during the regular season and will no doubt be looking forward to seeing the Panthers in the region final. Villanova has reached the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in five years, and after a first-round scare against American U., we saw the true Big East-style of plays come out against UCLA, as the Wildcats dominated the Bruins in every facet of the second-round affair, sporting a 41-29 edge in rebounding while forcing 20 turnovers.

I love Villanova's Dante Cunningham in this clash with the Blue Devils, because even though neither team has a dominating inside presence, this kid has spent a season painting the inside with some of the big men in the nation, against rugged Big East foes.

You better believe coach Jay Wright will have Cunningham and the Wildcats fired up on defense, for this one tonight, and they come out with a defensive effort the same way they did against UCLA, it'll be a huge advantage for us from the opening tip.

And with Cunnningham to grab defensive rebounds, you're going to see the 'Cats pushing the ball to the other end of the court, where we have Corey Stokes and Scottie Reynolds to bang home three's for the Wildcats, or simply set up the offense to locate the high-percentage jumpers.

Cunningham is Villanova's leading scorer and rebounder, and he will get us points in a variety of ways inside of 15 feet. The biggest key - ahem, concern - for 'Nova will be to how to stymie Duke swingman Gerald Henderson, who can fire from 3-point range and also has the ability to put the ball on the floor and drive to the bucket. Good thing for us is that Wright will likely rotate Dwayne Anderson, Reggie Redding and Stokes on Henderson in an effort to neutralize his offensive efforts.

Villanova has better overall depth and gets consistent offense from its reserves, another added bonus.

This one is a steal boys, just sit back and enjoy ... take the points and expect to see Villanova winning it outright.