3-27-09

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al's 21-5 ATS SWEET 16 UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR!
At 9:55 pm, our Sweet 16 Underdog of the Year is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs plus the points over North Carolina, as the Zags fall into a terrific tourney system of mine that's 21-5 ATS since 1991. What we want to do is play on any NCAA Tourney underdog of +1.5 points or more, in the 2nd round of the Tournament forward, that's off back to back ATS losses. After registering ATS wins in its last three lined games heading into the NCAA Tourney, the Bulldogs have failed to cover their first two games (vs. Akron and Western Kentucky). In contrast, North Carolina was a perfect 2-0 ATS in its games last weekend, with blowout wins over Radford and LSU. But teams off back to back ATS wins in the Tournament have covered just 33 percent of the time vs. foes off a Tourney win and back to back ATS losses. Interestingly, these two teams met two seasons ago, and Gonzaga won that ballgame straight-up, also as an 8-point underdog. That's key here, as guys like Josh Heytvelt and Jeremy Pargo were on that squad, so they KNOW they can beat this North Carolina team. Finally, Mark Few's men have flown under the radar all season, due in part to their early exits in Round 1 the past two years (in games vs. Indiana and Davidson). And those two seasons followed three years which saw the Zags seeded #3 or higher yet fail to reach the Final Four. All of this has led the national media to discount the Zags as a team that can win a lot of games in the West Coast Conference, but one that cannot achieve the ultimate task of winning the National Championship. The curious thing about this mindset is that this year's edition of the Bulldogs might very well be the best yet. An outright upset would not be a surprise here. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer Tournament GOY- Syracuse

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: The Hawks snuck into the postseason last year with the worst record of any of the 16 playoff participants but then took the Celtics (who would go on to win the title) to seven games in the first round (home team won all seven games). The Hawks won't have to worry about sneaking into this year's playoff field, as they enter this game at 42-30 (No. 4 seed) and four games clear of Miami and Philly, which are tied for the 5th-best record. Atlanta's headed for an opening round series in which the Hawks will own home court advantage. The Celtics are 54-19 on the season, a full five games behind the Cavs for the East's best record and after an 84-82 loss at Orlando on Wednesday, find themselves percentage points behind the Magic in the race for the East's second-best record. Pierce (20.2-5.8-3.7) and Ray Allen (18.4-3.5-2.8) have remained healthy all season, posting similar numbers to last year. However, KG's (15.8-8.5) production is slightly down and he's missed 16 games. He was limited to 17 minutes on Wednesday, as he works his way back from a knee injury. Rondo (11.9-5.3-8.5) continues to be bothered by his ankle (probable here but maybe limited minutes as well) plus the Celtics continue to play without reserves Tony Allen (7.8), Leon Powe (7.5-4.8) and , Brian Scalabrine (3.5). Then of course there is the "Curious Case of Stephon Marbury." Marbury joined the team at the beginning of March, with Boston sitting at 47-12. Now it's not all Marbury's fault but as Rivers tries to "work him into the rotation," the Celtics have gone 7-7 SU and 4-10 ATS. Marbury is averaging 2.7 PPG, while shooting 27.9 percent (2-of-13 on threes) and can't even spell the words defense or desire. The Hawks are led by the terrific backcourt duo of Johnson (21.7-4.4-5.9) and Bibby (14.9-3.6-5.0), with Flip Murray (11.7) becoming one of the league's most solid backcourt reserves. Williams (14.0-6.4) is still out at the small forward position but Evans (6.9) is playing well in his stead (has averaged 10.3 PPG over the last seven games), joining Smith (15.0-7.2) and Horford (11.5-9.2) in the starting frontcourt. The Hawks took advantage of a seven-game homestand from 3/7-19 to go 7-0 SU and ATS, before losing 102-96 at Cleveland. The team returned home after that one-game trip to beat the T-wolves and then Wednesday, lost at home to the Spurs, 102-92. This game vs Boston is pretty big, as the Hawks have lost two close ones to Boston this year, 103-102 in Boston on Nov 12 and 88-85 here in Atlanta on Dec 17. The Hawks were able to beat the Celtics in all three home playoff games last year and this Celtic team is not playing at anywhere near the same level as it was last April (plus is far from 100 percent healthy). A word to the Hawks. If not now, when? Eastern Conference GOW on the Atl Hawks (7*).

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: (Dallas is a 4 1/2-point favorite) The Mavs got some help last night from the Blazers, who beat the Suns. That gives Dallas a four-game lead over the Suns in the loss column (3 1/2 overall) for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. The 43-28 Mavs are still capable of moving up from that No. 8 seed though, as Denver, Houston and New Orleans all have 26 losses, while Portland and Utah have 27. Speaking of the Nuggets, they are 46-26 and one game ahead of the Blazers and 1 1/2 up on the Jazz, in the Northwest Division. Denver grabbed an important road win at New Orleans on Wednesday, winning 101-88, despite Nene (14.6-7.8) not palying. The undersized center is likely to miss again tonight (he's appealing his two-game suspension) and that's not good news, as Denver's road win on Wednesday was just the team's SECOND road win in nine games (since Feb 20). Anthony (22.3-6.8) and Billups (18.4-6.3 APG) are the team leaders but Denver's depth is a big reason the team's 46-26 mark is its best record through 72 games since joining the NBA back in the mid 70s. Smith (14.5-3.8), Jones (5.5) and Carter (5.3-4.7 APG) have all contributed in the backcourt, while Kleiza (9.7-3.9), Andersen (6.4-5.9) and Balkman (5.5-4.2) have done fine jobs in the frontcourt. Andersen, in particular has been very good as of late, averaging 10.0 PPG and 7.1 RPG over the last seven games.The Mavs got Terry (19.9-3.6 APG) back sooner than expected from his broken hand (missed just eight games) but then lost Howard (18.0-4.9) to that bothersome ankle problem (return unknown). Dampier (5.6-7.1) missed two games with a knee injury but was back on the court Wednesday, playing 23 minutes (eight points and 10 boards) in the team's 128-106 home win over the Warriors. Dallas opened 0-4 at home but Wednesday's win gave them 26 wins in their last 30 home games. Nowitzki (25.5-8.3) continues to produce night in and night out, while Kidd (9.2-6.3-8.3), Bass (8.6-4.5) and Wright (7.8) have all been pretty good. Wright is stepping up with Howard out, as he's averaged 11.6 PPG over his last nine games. The Nuggets are 3-0 vs the Mavs this year, winning three-point and two-point decisions in Denver plus winning by 10 in Dallas, back on Dec 15. The Nuggets will attempt to sweep the season series from the Mavs tonight, for the first time since the Dallas franchise began play in 1980. As Lee Corso loves to say, "not so fast!" Revenge Game of the Month on the Dal Mavericks (9*).

: Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: Michigan St was the Big 10's best team this year (at 15-3, the Spartans won the regular season title by a four-game margin) but how much does that really mean? Purdue (Big 10 tourney champ) was no match for U Conn last night and I see the Spartans bowing out tonight vs Kansas. Kansas can claim to be the defending champ but with all five starters gone from last year's team (plus Sasha Kaun), it's in name only! However, Bill Self's team accomplished quite a bit this year, winning its FIFTH straight Big 12 regular season title, with a 14-2 league mark. Collins (18.9-5.0 APG) has been brilliant all season (averaged just 9.3-3.1 LY) and the improvement of the 6-11 Aldrich (14.8-11.0) is nothing short of remarkable (2.8-3.0 LY). Three freshman have been major contributors, guard Taylor (9.8) plus the Morris twins. The 6-8 Marcus averages 7.5-4.8 and the 6-9 Markieff, 4.7-4.4. Sophomore guards Reed (6.6) and Morningstar (6.6) have been solid, while 6-5 JUCO swingman Little (4.8-3.3) has been a good addition since getting on the court in January. There's no denying Tom Izzo's tourney record but I don't think his team is all that good. Lucas (14.6-4.5 APG) is a talented guard by he's no Collins. The 6-7 Morgan (10.7-5.5) should have been the team's best player this year but he's been less than 100 percent, almost the entire year. The 6-10 Suton (9.4-8.0) is a decent player but again, he's no Aldrich. The 6-8 Roe (6.0-5.3), the 6-8 Gray (3.4-3.1) and the 6-6 Green (2.8-3.1) round out the frontcourt contributors. Joining Lucas in the backcourt is fellow starter Walton (5.3-2.3-3.2) plus Allen (9.0) and Summers (8.3-3.2). Michigan St easily handled Kansas back on Jan 10, jumping out to a 37-18 halftime lead in a 72-60 win. However, that game was at The Palace of Auburn Hills, hardly a neutral site. Lucas had 22 points in that game, while Morgan had 13-8 but note that Collins countered with 25 points (despite shooting 2-of-8 on threes), while Aldrich had 14-11. Kansas is a much better team now and all year, MSU has been known to throw in some 'clunkers.' The Spartans lost at home to Northwestern (?) and Penn St plus was embarrassed by a mediocre Ohio St team (just ask Siena) in the Big 10 tourney, losing 82-70. The Buckeyes shot 53.2 percent and scored 82 points in that game, vs a Michigan St team known for its defense (63.1 PPG allowed / 41.4 FG percentage). Moragn had just six points against the Buckeyes but did open with 16 points vs Robert Morris. However, in MSU's second round win over USC, Morgan shot 0-for-4 in 17 minutes (three points / two rebounds). Kansas can score (76.8 PPG) and its defense is pretty darn good, allowing opponents to make just 38.2 percent (5th-best in the nation). Collins has scored 57 points and handed out 10 assists in the first two games of this year's tourney, while Aldrich has 36 points and 33 rebounds. That duo plus a solid supporting cast will be too much for the overrated Big 10 regular season champs. Weekly Wipeout Winner Kansas (7.5*).

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: Roy Williams has been back in Carolina for six years, going 170-37 (.821). He enters this Sweet 16 game at 588-138 (.810) in his 21-years as a head coach. Not bad. Well how about Gonzaga's Mark Few? He's in his 10th year at Gonzaga and will enter tonight's game with a 10-year mark of 264-65 (.802), with the only school he's ever led. Carolina is college basketball 'royalty' but "the little school from Spokane" is in its 11th straight NCAA tourney (10 under Few) and 5th Sweet 16. The Tar Heels had an easy time with Radford, as PG Ty Lawson (16.1-2.7-6.5) rested his sore toe. Lawson returned to score 23 points and hand out six assist vs LSU, as North Carolina won, 84-70. However, Roy Williams' team led LSU only 67-63 at the seven-minute mark, before breaking the game open late. Lawson is expected to play again here but no one knows for sure the condition of his toe. Joining him in the backcourt is Ellington (15.7-4.8-2.7) and on the wing, it's the 6-6 Green (13.2-4.9). Last year's national p-o-y, the 6-9 Hansbough (21.2-8.1) is joined up front by the 6-9 Thompson (10.9-6.0). Carolina is not as deep as in years past, as right now, only 6-10 freshman Davis (6.7-6.7) and senior guard Frasor (2.7) are getting much playing time. The Bulldogs struggled early on vs Akron in round one but pulled away for an easy 13-point win (margin could have been greater). They then were life-and-death with Western Ky (won at the buzzer, 83-81) but as we've come to learn these last two years, those Hilltoppers can sure play. Gonzaga is not deep either but the team has quite a six-man rotation. PG Pargo (10.1-3.5-5.0) is a terrific leader and his three fellow guards are match up 'nightmares' for most teams. Bouldin (13.8-4.1-3.5) and Gray (9.2-3.3) are both 6-5, while Downs (9.5-4.6) checks in at 6-8. Two 6-11 players comprise the team's frontcourt, Heytvelt (14.9-6.7) and Daye (12.8-6.7). Carolina was the AP's preseason No. 1 team and spent more time atop that poll than any team in the nation, although Louisville took the nation's No. 1 ranking into the tourney. It should be noted though, that entering the tourney, North Carolina was just 11-19 ATS, before covering both of its first two NCAA games. The Tar Heels entered this year's "Big Dance" on a 2-9 ATS slide (since Feb 9) and on the year, were just 1-5 ATS as a single-digit favorite (lone cover was a win at Duke, as a two-point choice!). Meanwhile, Gonzaga has lost just one game the last two seasons (53-12 record) by more than 10 points! That was an 'ugly' 68-50 loss to Memphis on Feb 7, which by the way, is the team's ONLY loss since the calendar changed to 2009 (20-1). It may come as a surprise to some that North Carolina allows 72.3 PPG (the most of any ACC team), while Gonzaga has held its opponents to 61.9 PPG and to 37.2 percent on FG attempts (No. 2 in the nation!). These two schools met back in the 2006-07 season in the Preseason NIT tourney and Gonzaga won that game, 82-74. Think that game and result is not relevant? Think again. Bouldin, Heytvelt and Pargo all played on that Gonzaga team, each scoring in double digits while combining for 49 points. Participating in that game for Carolina were Ellington, Green, Hansbough, Lawson and Thompson. Those names sound familiar? They should, as the above group will be North Carolina's starting-five tonight! Take the points! PERFECT STORM on Gonzaga (9*).

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer 25*- Gonzaga

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang


30 DIME


Syracuse

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Oklahoma
Millionaire- Gonzaga Sweet 16 Underdog Game of the year
Moneymaker- Louisville
No Limit- Michigan St