3-29-09

[Mr. IWS]

::moneybag::

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Chairman- Oklahoma
Millionaire- Michigan St
MoneyMaker- New Orleans Hornets

DR BOB

one NBA Best Bet and a possible NCAA Best Bet.

Rotation #717 Phoenix (-5) 3-Stars at -6 or less.

Michigan State is a Strong Opinion at +6 or +6 1/2, but the Spartans are a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 (-1.10 odds or better). Lean with Oklahoma +7.


3 Star Selection
***Phoenix (-5) over SACRAMENTO
06:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 717
The Suns have gone back to their old style of up-tempo play under new coach Alvin Gentry, who took over after the All-Star break. The result has been much better offensive efficiency and worse defense, but the lack of defense has not been a problem when facing bad teams. The Suns are a perfect 8-0 straight up and 8-0 ATS under Gentry when facing a team with a losing record and I expect that trend to continue tonight in Sacramento. The Kings are just 4-16-1 ATS this season at home against teams with a win percentage of greater than .333 as long as they are not an underdog of 8 points or more and the Suns will certainly be focused after losing consecutive games at Portland and at Utah last night. Phoenix is 6-0 ATS this season as a road favorite while playing the 2nd of back-to-back nights, so I don’t see last night’s overtime game in Utah being an issue. That overtime game has actually given us some line value, as the line has gone from -6 down to -5 points and my ratings favor the the Suns by 6 ½ points in this game. Phoenix also applies to a solid 109-45-2 ATS bounce-back situation that is 51-14 ATS when the opposing team has a win percentage of less than .333. I’ll take Phoenix in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 ½ points.

NCAA Possible Best Bet
Michigan State (+6 ½) over Louisville
11:20 AM Pacific - Rotation 719
Louisville sure was impressive in their 103-64 round 3 win over Arizona, but the Cardinals failed to cover in their first two NCAA Tournament games and their most recent win appears to have over-influenced the line. Louisville is a very good team and the Big East has represented itself well in this tournament, but there is no way to justify the Cardinals being favored by 6 ½ points. Using all games for each team for the entire season I get Louisville by 3.3 points, but Michigan State struggled a bit in 6 games without C Goran Suton – registering 2 of the team’s 6 losses for the season without their big man. Michigan State is 25-4 with Suton in the lineup and I get Louisville by 2.7 points using the Spartans games with Suton. Louisville appears to be a better team now than they were early in the season, but I still get Louisville by just 3.9 points using games since conference season started in early January. The only way I come close to the line of 6 ½ points is if I only use Louisville’s games during their current 13 game winning streak - I get Louisville by 6 points doing that. Using only the games since their last loss is heavily biased in Louisville’s favor and I still can’t justify a line of 6 ½ points. Big East teams have out-played their ratings by an average of 2.3 points during the post-season and if Big East teams are truly 2.3 points better than my ratings suggest then I would get a fair line of Louisville by 5 points (2.7 + 2.3). Regardless of how I crunch the numbers there is no way to justify Louisville being favored by 6 ½ points and I’ll consider Michigan State a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and I’d take MSU in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more (at -1.10 odds or better). I will also lean with the Under since my math projects a total of 131 points.

Oklahoma (+7) over North Carolina
02:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 721
North Carolina is the best team in the nation with Ty Lawson in the lineup, but Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin is the best player in the nation and the Sooners are capable of beating any team when he’s playing well. North Carolina should be on alert because Griffin has been unstopable during the Sooners tournament run, making an incredible 27 of 37 shots (73%) while averaging 30.3 points and 14.7 rebounds. My ratings only favor North Carolina by 4 ½ points, with a total of 165 ½ points, and I’ll lean with Oklahoma plus the points.

Brandon Lang

Free Pick - Oklahoma

Ben Burns

Game Of Month
Sacramento Kings

Top
Atlanta
Nets Over

Larry Ness

League: College Basketball

Event: Michigan State vs Louisville on 03/29/2009 at 11:20AM

Condition: Louisville

Grade: Ungraded

Promotion: This will be Tom Izzo's 6th Regional Final and Rick Pitino's 8th. They are two coaching 'heavyweights' but I don't believe this will be a fair fight. The Spartans are coming off a gutty 67-62 win over Kansas, while the Cardinals come in off a 103-64 'pasting' of Arizona. MSU fell behind Kansas by 13 points early on and still trailed by eight at the half. Down 60-57 late, the Spartans clawed their back and with Lucas (who made just 5-of-15 shots on the game) getting seven points (5-of-5 on FTs) in the game's final seconds, MSU won 67-62. The 6-10 Suton (9.8-8.0) scored are season-high 20 points and the MSU bench outscored Kansas 23 to 7. The Spartans beat Kansas with fundamentals, as the Spartans went 16 of 17 from the free throw line and committed just 13 turnovers. However, they will need more than just strong fundamentals to stay with Louisville. Louisville lost 90-57 at Notre dame on Feb 12 but has won 13 straight, since! They capped their regular season Big East title by winning the Big East tourney as well, becoming the only school in the six power conferences to win both its regular season and tourney titles. Morehead St fell 74-54 in the first round and Siena (a VERY good team) was tougher than expected in the second round but the Cardinals won 79-72. Against Arizona on Friday, Pitino's team was nearly flawless. The 6-9 Clark (14.1-8.8) had 19 and nine, the 6-6 Williams (12.7-8.6-5.0) 14-7-6 and 6-9 freshman center Samuels (12.1-4.8) 14-5. That trio forms a devastating front line with 6-9 freshman Jennings (4.2-2.9) adding some depth as of late (7.5-3.5 in his last two games). The backcourt is four-deep, with Smith (7.8) leading the way in scoring on the year (also had 16 vs Arizona), joined by Sosa (7.4), Knowles (6.0) and McGee (5.5). Louisville plays pressure D baseline to baseline and while Lucas is quite a player, the rest of the MSU team may not be up to the task. Lucas and Suton scored 38 points vs Kansas but MSU's other three starters, the 6-7 Morgan (10.5-5.4), 6-8 freshman Roe (5.9-5.2) and Lucas' backcourt partner Walton (5.2-2.3-3.3) combined for just SIX points. Allen (8.9) and Summers (8.30 have been solid backcourt performers this year but Louisville's pressure D will be tough to cope with. Morgan (14.0-6.1) was expected to be MSU's best player this year but he's been far from healthy all season, reaching double digits in points in just THREE of his last 19 games (5.8 PPG during that stretch). He was a non-factor vs Kansas with just four points (1-of-6 FGs) which mirrored his play in MSU's second round win over USC, when he went 0-for-4, scoring just three points. Just who on MSU will guard Clark and Williams? Will Suton be able to match up with Samuels in the middle? I wouldn't want to bet on that, either. The Big East gets its THIRD team to the Final 4 with a romp on Sunday. MAJOR MISMATCH 15* Louisville.

Scott Spreitzer
League: College Basketball
Event: Michigan State vs Louisville on 03/29/2009 at 11:20AM
Condition: Louisville
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: I'm laying the points with Louisville on Sunday. Tom Izzo has proven once again that he is arguably one of the top four or five coaches in college basketball. Once again, his Spartans have gone deeper in the tourney than most (including yours truly) predicted. I stayed away from their game with Kansas a couple of nights ago. I wasn't sure how much KU would press and knew if they could, they very well may force MSU into costly mistakes. Now, the sometimes turnover-happy Spartans will have to face the most relentless press they have seen all season. And we all have seen just how strong the Cardinals can be when they apply it fullcourt for most of a game. The intensity on defense leads to quick, open looks inside on the offensive end. The Cardinals have connected on at least 48% of their shots in five of their last six games and they have held seven of their last eight opponents to less than 67 points. I believe the Spartans will struggle with Louisville's depth, which allows them to employ their basic zone-press all game long. MSU will be game early on, but Louisville's depth and press will allow the Cardinals to pull away and head to next weekend's Final Four. I'm laying the points with the Cardinals, my Slam Dunk GOM. Thanks! GL! Scott.